FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland

Saturday 15/3 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) took another away beating by losing 4-1 in Brøndby. This was the 8th away loss in 10 matches and if it was not for a strong home statistic FC Nordsjælland would be halfway in the 1st Division by now. At home FC Nordsjælland have only lost one match the entire season and it happens to be against FC Vestsjælland, the visitors this weekend. FC Nordsjælland usually arrive to the home matches with much more eagerness and they tend to dominate these matches (unlike the away matches). Unfortunately for FC Nordsjælland they are still facing a lot of problems with the availability of their key players. For this match they will be without their captain, the central midfielder Nicolai Stokholm, and probably also the preferred striker, Morten Nordstrand. Both are vital players that leave FC Nordsjælland as a team without a clear figurehead to add belief when things get tough. The opponents FC Vestsjælland are still to win in 2014. They have been very inefficient, but the last two matches proved that the defence is better than the first 0-4 loss against SønderjyskE suggested. FC Vestsjælland have a strong ability to undermine the opponents creativity when playing away. Their impressive away record highlights this. In 11 away matches they have lost only three: two losses to weak Viborg and a slim 1-0 loss against FC Copenhagen. FC Vestsjælland not facing the match as defensively as the normal Superliga away match can explain the losses in Viborg. The point is that FC Vestsjælland are very strong at limiting the opponent by adopting a very defensive approach away. The 0-0 in Aalborg against an offensively strong team that went on the beat AGF 5-2 in this round last highlighted this. FC Vestsjælland will welcome back important midfielders Henrik Madsen and Rasmus Festersen.

The absence of the key players for FC Nordsjælland combined with FC Vestsjællands strong away record means that we think the value is against FC Nordsjælland. We could have picked X2, but we find the draw as the most interesting outcome (combined the two teams have 45% draws if you add up their respective home and away records).

Idea: X – 3.85 at Betfair