Week 27 Superliga previews

AGF-Viborg

Friday 29/4 18.00

AGF will be playing the cup final six days later, which is the highlight of their season. Question is if they can keep focus for this match. I think their head coach will be very eager to get a good experience prior to the final, so strongest line-up is to be expected. However, AGF will miss the vital striker Duncan, who is banned. He is important for AGF’s style of playing as they can use him as a target for long balls and no other players has his aerial skills, so AGF will have to chance their style of playing a bit. The possible replacements in attack are not impressive (Lange and Vatsadze), but AGF have a team that is overall quite solid. Only minus is the poor goalkeeper. Rasmussen holds the lowest saving percentage in 2016 – only 58% (league average: 72%) he is especially poor on set pieces. Viborg have performed way above expectations this season. They have looked good in 2016, but have struggled to get their game going in the last two matches after losing offensive profiles Deble and Akharraz to injuries. Deble could be back here, which should be a big boost as this give Viborg some speed to threaten with in attack. Captain and centre back Rask could also return after injury, while regular central midfielder Lerager returns from a ban. Solid right back Pallesen is banned. The same is the case for midfielder Fochive, but he is a back-up player.

Much depends on the squad situation in Viborg. If Deble and Rask are back here, they look fairly strong. If not, they will find it very difficult here. AGF with overall solid team, but they have issues in the decisive areas. What to pick? I have AGF as slim favourites, so that is my pick, but if you spot Deble and Rask in the line-up, the away team could be a better choice.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.85 at Bet365

Hobro-SønderjyskE

Saturday 30/4 17.00

Hobro added a point last weekend after a late goal against Esbjerg. They deserved it after another fine display. In the last four matches Hobro have performed quite okay and if they continue they should be able to take a win at some point. I still think they are giving away too many chances and it is almost standard that they concede two goals. Offensively, I think they create enough chances to score more goals, but strikers have been really inefficient. It is important that speedy Antipas is back, but he is still hampered by an injury and heading for an operation, so it is always a bit uncertain if he will be playing. Hobro will be out left back Tjørnelund and more importantly defensive midfielder Damborg (bans). Damborg is a vital player for protecting the backline, so his absence is a blow. SønderjyskE are continuing to add wins. They have been exceptional at coming from behind in 2016. They have a great mentality and just keeps on fighting. I think the current position in the table is far more than what their performances justify, I see them more as mid-table given their stats, but that is still fairly good given SønderjyskE’s budget. For this match, they will be without midfielder Madsen who is banned. He has been in spectacular form in 2016, scoring five goals, so it is a blow.

Hobro appears to be improving in form, but I think the absence of Damborg will be an issue here. On the other hand, SønderjyskE continue to take wins and have such a good mentality that they will undoubtedly make life difficult for Hobro. SønderjyskE have won the two previous meetings in the season 2-0 and 3-0. I expect them to take another win here, but the odds are just too low to make it recommendation.

Idea: 2  (AH -0.5) – 1.72 at Unibet  

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Sunday 1/5 13.00

FC Nordsjælland played a decent match in SønderjyskE, but ended up with zero points after being close to taking a late win. It is the kind of match that FC Nordsjælland usually hates: away game against a physical team. Now they will face a similar match with the important difference that it is at home on own artificial grass. FC Nordsjælland have impressed me in 2016. With a small squad with many youngsters that have shown quality. However, it concerns me that they don’t get many big chances and fire way too many long-range shots, partly due to playing without a true striker. FC Nordsjælland’s most physical player in midfield, Petry, is banned and it will be a blow in a match like this. Winger Mikkelsen missed the last match and could be out again here. Randers are in my opinion one of the best teams of 2016. In 8 games in 2016 they have only conceded 29 shots from the penalty box, which is the league lowest (league average is 56!). This shows that Randers got their defensive organisation in order. Only problem has been the inability to convert chances. They have the lowest scoring percentage in the league in 2016 (even worse than Hobro!) at 18.2% of the shots on target. In that light it is positive that striker Ishak looks to be back from injury. He can replace Lundberg who is playing without confidence and has not scored since August.

Weather is set to be poor on Sunday, which would probably be an advantage for Randers as a more physical match is to their liking. I hold Randers as small favourites here given their strong performance in 2016, but FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team so don’t underestimate them. They have beaten FC Copenhagen and FC Midtjylland in Farum in 2016, which shows quality. However, if I had to pick I would go with a small bet on Randers. Randers have also won the last four head-to-head matches without conceding.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Unibet

AaB-Brøndby

Sunday 1/5 16.00

AaB are in poor form at the moment. They create nothing in Randers last weekend, but the players were probably tired after playing a tough cup match in midweek. Now they have had a week of rest before this very important match. AaB are expected to be able to field the strongest possible eleven, and they should start to find some form soon since they have a lot of offensive quality, which they have not shown yet. At home against Brøndby, they will surely have strong home support. Major concern is the situation with Spalvis, the league top goalscorer, who has been benched in recent matches due to a poor attitude. AaB need him back at his best to be a big threat again. I expect him to be given the chance here. Brøndby have done fine under Skarbalius reign, but it is really not entertaining football. They play with main focus on the defensive part, why 7 out of the 8 matches with him as head coach has ended with under 2.5 goals. Brøndby do have offensive issues as they lack quality in the final part of the pitch, but they are not investing a lot either. Defensively, they look pretty solid especially when Agger is fit to play.

It will be a match between a team wishing to play offensive football and a team wishing to defend primarily. What will win? AaB will undoubtedly be pushed forward by the strong home support and Brøndby have delivered some rather poor away efforts of late. Therefore my pick would be the home side here, although AaB’s poor form makes me stick with it is an idea pick.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.98 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 1/5 18.00

After FC Copenhagen dropped some points in Viborg last weekend, the title race has opened a little bit. My model currently has FC Copenhagen at 97% chance of winning the title with FC Midtjylland being the most dangerous rival. Therefore, this is a match to win and the home team will surely be motivated. It is good news for FC Copenhagen to have a round clear of midweek games after a heavy schedule, so there should be no fatigue here. FC Copenhagen have clearly been the most dominant side during 2016 and just last week they outshot Viborg 25-5. FC Copenhagen have a very strong team with excellent squad depth and currently no injuries or bans of importance. They have won all four league home games in 2016 with a total score 11-3. FC Midtjylland are finally starting to get some points after an abysmal start to 2016. They have established some consistency in the squad selection despite having a number of injuries. FC Midtjylland have a fine squad depth so their selection is still pretty strong, but in order to fully match FC Copenhagen they cannot afford being without several potential starters. Left back Novak missed the last match with a minor injury and could be back here.

We get another “final” in Parken. So far FC Copenhagen have beaten SønderjyskE and AaB in similar “finals” without problems and I expect the same to happen here, although FC Midtjylland are starting to pick up the pace. I think the odds for home win should be a tad lower than what is currently offered and I actually think it deserves being selected as Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.92 at Unibet

Update: Kusk is set to miss the match for FC Copenhagen. He is the creative player on FC Copenhagen's midfield so it is a setback for the pick. His normal replacement Toutouh is doubtful.

Esbjerg-OB

Monday 2/5 19.00

Esbjerg are starting to fade after a point wise strong start to 2016. I think they had it coming. They have not been able to produce a lot offensively, and their saving percentage defensively was off the charts during the first match. Now it appears they are slowly regressing towards more normal results given their chance domination. Esbjerg have a SoTR of only 39% in 2016. Hardly impressing, and it shows that Esbjerg are not exactly dominating their matches. In fact, Esbjerg are the team that has conceded the most shots from the penalty box, 82, in 2016. It is really impressive that they have not conceded more than 8 goals, but goalkeeper Højbjerg deserves credit. Esbjerg have a decent team as such, but I think they lack extraordinary players in a team of average players. OB have extraordinary players in the offensive part in Falk, Festersen and Jacobsen. Apart from this, I think they are worse than Esbjerg. I don’t like OB’s defence, and I think they have actually been a bit lucky with the points earned in 2016. However, I see them as stronger than Esbjerg, mainly due to their ability to create chances. OB’s SoTR in 2016 is 48%. OB will be without left back Barrett, but he is not a vital player. Strong defensive midfielder Makrini returns from a ban.

It is a match between two teams that have over-performed in 2016. I think OB are the stronger team here, why I expect a rather even match given Esbjerg’s home advantage. The price is not spectacular but it is just enough to make it a recommendation. I go for the straight win as I have a rather low draw probability due to OB’s boom-or-bust nature. Also tempted to go for over here.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.90 at Tipico
Idea: Over 2.5 - 2.00 at Bet365