Week 25 Superliga previews

FC Nordsjælland-Hobro

Friday 15/4 18.00

FC Nordsjælland have started 2016 strongly. Especially on the artificial home pitch, where they have beaten FC Copenhagen and FC Midtjylland. They had problems against Esbjerg last weekend due to Esbjerg fielding a very compact team. FC Nordsjælland are playing without a true striker, so it is difficult for them to make something happen against very compact teams. Ideally, they are strongest when they have the space to counter with the likes of Mor, Moberg-Karlsson and Mikkelsen as the fast offensive players. FC Nordsjælland have a very young team, especially the defence, but they have so far done really well. Hobro are going down, but they have looked stronger in the last two matches. They have created enough chances to scoring more, but they are currently stuck on 1 goal scored in 2016. They have some issues ahead of this match as three regulars are banned: left wing Mikkelsen, right back Bøge and central midfielder Povlsen. The good thing is that neither of these are vital players and Hobro have a quite good squad depth. However, it is concerning that defensive midfielder Damborg is doubtful as a change of both central midfielders could be hurtful. Hobro will play a 3-5-2 with strong focus on defence. Offensively, they will hope for players like George, Park or Antipas to create something on their own.

Really low odds for home win, but Hobro have been abysmal in 2016. FC Nordsjælland should surely dominate this match. My only concern is whether they can make the first goal. If they get this, it will force Hobro to come forward, which will give FC Nordsjælland better options. Thus, I suspect two outcomes to be the most likely: a deadlock perhaps ending in a tie or a clear home win. It all depends on how the game evolves. Don’t want to bet on it at the current prices. FC Nordsjælland have never been so big a favourite for a match, not even in their title winning season and they are not nearly as good now. However, Hobro are in a bad condition with limited confidence. My choice is Hobro not to score. They have only scored in one out of six matches in 2016, and although they have been a bit unlucky, I struggle to see them scoring 50% of the time here.

Idea: Hobro not to score – 2.00 at Cashpoint

AGF-Randers

Saturday 16/4 16.00

The question is how important the match is for AGF? AGF will be playing a return leg in the cup (semi-final) against AaB the upcoming Thursday. They won the first match in Aalborg 2-0 this Wednesday, so they are in a good position to enter a final for the first time in MANY years (last time in 1996!). At the same time, AGF are without chances for anything in the league, so it would actually be surprising if they should field the best line-up here. Otherwise, AGF have been doing quite well. They are creating many chances, but has just lacked some luck (and a quality goalkeeper) in order to get more points during 2016. Randers don’t have all too much to play for either, but they don’t have a cup that is more important. Therefore, we will of course see the strongest Randers team here (minus Keller who is persona non grata). Randers have been doing fine according to stats during 2016. They are creating a fine portion of chances, but have just lacked some efficiency in order to actually transform it to points. Randers were the better team last weekend against FC Copenhagen who are odds on for the title, which proves that Randers are certainly a good team.

Odds are already dropping as people are acknowledging that this match is of minor importance for AGF. Still some bookies offer some fairly decent prices for a Randers win, and we take this here with the expectation that we won’t see AGF in the strongest line-up (and perhaps not overly motivated either).

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 1.94 at Cashpoint

OB-Viborg

Sunday 17/4 13.00

OB started 2016 with some nice results, but largely due to being extremely efficient and not better than the opponent. In fact, I have them ranked as one of the worst teams in the league through 2016. During the last two matches, they have lost, as they have not been able to keep up a very high efficiency. OB have a strong attack, but a fairly inconvicning defence. It has surely been a big help with the new keeper Grytebust, who does not make the same number of mistakes as his Ukranian predecessor Koval. OB could be without two important players here, most importantly offensive ace Rasmus Falk (assist leader) who missed the last match with injury. The same is the case for versatile Mikkel Desler, who could also be out here. Especially, the possible absence of Falk could hurt the offensive productivity of OB. Viborg on the other hand has looked very strong in 2016. In fact, I only think they have been the weaker side in one match this year (against SønderjyskE), otherwise they have been very strong. They should probably have had a bit better results, but they have missed key opportunities (for instance missing a penalty in minute 93 last weekend). Viborg have a defensively strong team, they are very good at preventing shots from own penalty box. Offensively, they do not invest a lot, but with players like Kamper, Akharraz and Deble, they will always be able to produce something. Viborg have reportedly no absences here.

OB have been quite lucky throughout 2016, and they could be without key players here (still undecided). On the other hand, Viborg are just really strong at the moment even on away grounds. I think Viborg are stronger than OB here, and OB could really find it difficult to break up the Viborg defence, while still protecting their own fragile backline to Viborg’s counter-attacks.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 3.00 at Tipico

AaB-SønderjyskE

Sunday 17/4 16.00

AaB are going through a really poor period, which just hit a low point with a home loss 0-2 in the first leg cup semi-final against AGF. The question is whether AaB will invest more energy in the cup (return match next Thursday) or simply focus on the league, where they are in a good position for obtaining a second place. AaB have really struggled in the spring and only records a SoTR of 42% (10th). They are having problems with dominating their matches and for once their saving percentage is below the league average (they are usually above with a solid keeper in Larsen). In my opinion, the key to the lack of success is the lack of consistency in the midfield. AaB are very dependent on a fit midfield, but lately captain Würtz has been absent and without him, they lack the balance that is needed to invest offensively. Würtz is doubtful for this match. Furthermore, the league top goalscorer, Lukas Spalvis, appears to have lost motivation over the winter break – he is playing without passion at the moment. SønderjysKE are a solid team. Nothing spectacular, just hard working and committed to their strategy. This has brought them in a position, where they are playing for top spots, so this is a vital match. SønderjyskE have had some issues with defensive absences of late. The situation is not better here as defender Marc Pedersen is banned. The constant forced changes of backline has affected the stability and we have seen SønderjyskE giving up more chances than usual, which is the reason for the rather low SoTR in 2016 of 46% (9th).

AaB have had a good recent head-to-head record against SønderjyskE. They have won the last three matches with a goal score of 10-1. However, these results were obtained in better times for AaB, while SønderjyskE only look stronger at the moment. At the same time, it is unclear whether Würtz will return here – he is vital! On the other hand, SønderjyskE are forced to make another defensive change, while having looked pretty vulnerable at back of late. Price seems to high for SønderjyskE to win, but only an idea pick.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 3.00 at PartyBets

FC Copenhagen-Brøndby

Sunday 17/4 18.00

Derby day in Copenhagen. They met similar place just 10 days ago (cup match), where it ended 1-1 in a match where FC Copenhagen were the better team, but Brøndby put in a fine performance. FC Copenhagen appear to be a bit from the best form. The 1-1 result in Randers was not impressive and the players have generally seemed a bit unfocused and perhaps tired. It will be a big help that they have had a week without midweek matches. Motivation should be there as it is against the arch-rival and a loss here could open up the title race. FC Copenhagen are not expected to have any absences. Brøndby have looked very unspectacular since Auri Skarbalius took over, but 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss are decent results. It is clear that with Skarbalius in charge Brøndby are much more focused on the defensive part. All the five matches with him in charge have gone under 2.5 goals. Brøndby have had some issues with bans and injuries, but left back Durmisi will certainly return here, while the same could be the case with central defenders Agger and Albrechtsen. If these two are back, Brøndby’s chances should increase significantly. I am not impressed by Brøndby’s offensive production, but it is a good thing that Kahlenberg is finally back to make the key passes.

I think FC Copenhagen are significantly stronger here, and I expect them to pick up the pace soon. I think the price for home win borders to value. I am also quite convinced that I will be a tactical and cautious match with high intensity and few goals. The under line is low, but I actually think it might be worth a shot.

Ideas: 1 – 1.70 at Sportingbet

Under 2.5 goals – 1.65 at Tipico

Esbjerg-FC Midtjylland

Monday 18/4 19.00

Esbjerg have massively over-performed in terms of points through 2016. That they have only lost one match is remarkable, given that they have not really been the better side in any match. However, they are quite strong defensively, mainly due to a clear defensive focus and a new quality keeper (Højbjerg). This also hurts the offence, which does not produce a lot. Things are not made easier by a ton of injuries. Latest addition is offensive midfielder Casper Nielsen who left the last match with a concussion. He could return here, but it is obvious that Esbjerg lack squad depth, as their bench is very young and unproven. According to my stats, Esbjerg are clearly the most lucky side through 2016 and they should not continue to earn as many points unless they improve their chance production. FC Midtjylland have been quite poor in 2016. There have been signs of improvement as they easily beat Brøndby two weeks ago and had good periods against Viborg. Based on the quality of the squad, they should be a top 3 side easily. However, they have also been hampered by a lot of absences. They were just starting to get some consistency in the line-up, but unfortunately, they are set to miss the very strong defensive midfielder Tim Sparv due to a ban. Sparv is important as he keeps the balance of the team and rarely makes mistakes. He will be difficult to replace, but FC Midtjylland are known for an impressive squad depth.

Two teams with many absences. I believe FC Midtjylland are a significantly stronger side, and even though they are away here, I think that the price is too high. Esbjerg cannot continue to deliver as good results when they are only having around 30% of the shots on target in their matches. Due to Esbjerg’s defensive outset, draw insurance could be needed.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 1.78 at Unibet

Remaining previews will arrive later..