Week 24 Superliga previews

Viborg-FC Midtjylland

Friday 9/4 18.00

Two clubs that don’t like each other – this will be intense. Viborg have been playing strongly in 2016. They are very solid at the back and with the likes of Deble and Akharraz, they have some offensive quality too. Viborg are fairly defensive minded playing with a central midfield with only defensive midfielders. They prefer to attack through counter-attacks where the speed of Deble can be used. The many defensive players also make Viborg difficult to break down and remarkably Viborg are the team that has conceded the fewest shots from the penalty box in 2016. In general, Viborg are very good at forcing opponents to fire from outside the box. FC Midtjylland are a team that likes to fire from outside the box. With a midfield of shooting happy players, especially Sisto, they will surely get their number of shots from the distance here. FC Midtjylland will also look to get into the box, and although that has been an issue in 2016, it surely did look better in the last match against Brøndby, which they dominated. FC Midtjylland have had many injuries and bans of late, but looking at their starting line-up it is of good quality and this time they have the opportunity to repeat the line-up to get some consistency.

This is a match between the defensive-minded Viborg, a hardworking team with a few offensive weapons, and FC Midtjylland who have proven quality on almost every position. Therefore, FC Midtjylland rightly deserves the role of favourite. I totally agree with the current price setting of the bookies. An alternative is over 3.5 yellow cards. In the past two seasons, this line has been crossed three out of five times when the rivals have met. There is bad blood between the clubs, so the intensity could lead to bookings.

Idea: Over 3.5 yellow cards - Nordicbet

SønderjyskE-AGF

Saturday 10/4 16.00

SønderjyskE missed out on a great opportunity to be a part of the title race by losing 1-0 in Parken last week. However, it was almost a mission impossible for them and they were lucky not to lose by more than one goal as FC Copenhagen completely dominated the match. SønderjyskE have had a terrific season, why they are a part of the top. They are incredibly good against teams of similar calibre because they are so committed to their defensive counter-attacking strategy. The ability to follow the strategy should improve for this weekend as striker Bechmann returns from ban, while defender Luijckx and Pereira could both return from minor injuries. AGF are barely holding on to their 10th spot in the table. It must be frustrating for AGF since they have deserved more based on their performance. However, they have some issues: they struggle when they have to dominate a match (as seen in the disappointing 1-1 against Hobro last weekend) and they have a miserable ability to avoid (and save) shots from own penalty box. They simply concede too many big chances, especially from set pieces where goalkeeper Rasmussen is a liability. AGF have offensive quality in the striker Duncan and he was also the main character when AGF won a cup match against SønderjyskE 3-0 earlier this year. AGF will be without reserve right back Andersen and the speedy winger Cavric due to bans. AGF will lack some offensive quality without Cavric, but with Petersen as back-up, things are not all too bad.

The price for the home side seems too big as it is a match between number 3 and 10, but you cannot deny that AGF really had SønderjyskE on the hook in the last match plus having played some fairly impressive away matches in 2016 after the signing of new head coach Riddersholm. No recommendation here. My own expectations is that AGF will have the most attempts on goal, but SønderjyskE will have the better – therefore the home win is chosen as an idea pick.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.80 at Unibet

Hobro-AaB

Sunday 11/4 13.00

Hobro finally got their first point and goal in ages as they got a draw in Aarhus (1-1). Hobro did not play particularly well until Domoraud and Antipas were subbed-in in the second half. From then on Hobro had something to offer and threathen AGF with. Defensively, they looked improved with Egholm finally back in the central defence after a long injury period. So there should be some reason for optimism in Hobro although they will certainly relegate. For this match, they will be without offensive profile Park, who is banned. AaB took a win against FC Nordsjælland last weekend, but it was far from pretty. AaB are still searching for the great offensive play that gave them so much success in autumn. Perhaps the win (and the midweek cup win against Roskilde) can give AaB some much-needed confidence. AaB have a very talented attack, but they are also very dependent on the squad situation as their squad depth is poor. Unfortunately, the talismanic captain, central midfielder Rasmus Würtz, is probably out with an injury here. AaB are typically significantly poorer without him as they tend to lack something from the midfield that is always the catalyst for AaB’s great games.

Hobro are the worst team in the league and should be huge underdogs here. The point in Aarhus should have given them motivation, but this still look like a pretty tough task. On the other hand, the odds for away win are too low given the absence of Würtz. I will instead prefer a bet on few goals as Hobro are defensive-minded under head coach Ove Pedersen, while AaB are not on top offensively at the moment.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Unibet

Randers-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 11/4 16.00

Randers have been in quite a storm of late, mostly due to off-the-pitch issues. The win in Odense last weekend should give some relief. Randers have deserved better results in 2016, but they have really struggled with finding the net as their scoring percentage has been a mediocre 15.8% (league average around 31%). Randers have a physical team with a number of hard working players. Reportedly no absences apart from the two involved in the wife-scandal (Keller and Borring). FC Copenhagen are not playing all too well at the moment. They are undoubtedly the best side in the league, but they are experiencing a minor form dip. They played a tough midweek cup match against Brøndby (1-1), which could have a mental effect here as players could either be fired up to take revenge or a bit unfocused on the league which they have almost already won. Reportedly no absences for FC Copenhagen.

Randers are usually a pretty strong home side, why it won’t be an easy match for FC Copenhagen. It will probably be an intense game without many goals – just look at the very low under/over line. I think the best bet would be the draw, which is also a quite typical result between the two sides – 5 out of the last 10 head-to-head matches have ended in a draw after 90 minutes (including cup games).

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet/Danske Spil

Brøndby-OB

Sunday 11/4 18.00

Brøndby got into trouble in the away games against FC Midtjylland, where they were pretty much run over (lost 2-0). It is not the first time Brøndby have had a major off-day in an away game. Maybe, they had their mind on the midweek cup match against FC Copenhagen, because they were a lot better here and got a draw. The return match match is in over than a week, so that should not bother mentally here. Physically, it could be a problem as central defender Albrechtsen and central midfielder Austin both left with injuries and it is unclear whether they return. Although they are not the most important players, it would be a minus to be without them. Especially, since Brøndby will already miss left back Durmisi and centre-back Agger due to bans. Thus, it will be a very different back line for Brøndby here, and they will probably need to use Juelsgaard and Ørnskov in the central defence although it is not their natural position, but it should be to their advantage that they have played together previously this season. Offensively there is reason for optimism with the return of creative force Kahlenberg. With him on the pitch, Brøndby should be better at controlling a game. OB go into 2nd position in the lucky in 2016 category. OB have notched up some fine results leading to talks about top 3. This is way off, as they don’t have the quality and really are riding their luck currently. OB have only had 22 shots from the penalty box in 2016 – only Esbjerg is worse – and it is mainly due to an impressive saving and scoring percentage that OB have done so well. I don’t think they will keep it up. Furthermore, they have serious issues for this match. Right back Desler will miss the match with injury, while assist king and the most vital player for OB, Rasmus Falk is doubtful. If Falk is out, OB will lack creativity in attack, and it is difficult to see how they will create chances.

Both teams have some problems here, but I think that Brøndby are better, which the underlying stats also suggest. If Falk is indeed out, we have a very fine bet on our hands, why I make the home win a recommendation.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.15 at Nordicbet

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Monday 12/4 19.00

FC Nordsjælland have performed above my expectations. The addition of Hjulmand as head coach and the talented youngster Mor in attack have really improved their performance. Otherwise, I don’t really get it. They have a lot of talented players and play with a very low average age (around 22 years), so there should be bumps on the road. Until now they have had some strong matches, and they were actually better than AaB last weekend (lost 1-0). FC Nordsjælland have an impressive SoTR of 52.9% in 2016, but this is too a large degree due to taking many shots from outside the box with low probability of scoring. FC Nordsjælland have had some injuries, but it is mainly for rotation players, so not so important. Esbjerg have had a magnificent 2016 based on points earned. They have notched up three wins, one draw and only one loss (away to FC Copenhagen). Most importantly they have stabilized the backline and new goalkeeper Højbjerg is doing a great job. Big talent! Having watched all Esbjerg’s matches I think they have been very lucky with the points earned. You can hardly argue that they have been the better team in any of their matches in 2016, but they have just been clinical (defensively and offensively). Their SoTR is abysmal, 32.5%, but I am sure it will improve, while their efficiency is bound to go down. My model points out Esbjerg as the luckiest side in 2016, but you also have to give them credit because they are playing with confidence now in opposition to in autumn. They have had a good share of injuries, but importantly central midfielder Lekven is expected to return for this match. Esbjerg have a good history against FC Nordsjælland as they have beaten them in the last three head-to-heads.

Just looking at stats from the last matches, it would definitely suggest that FC Nordsjælland are the better side here. I am not as convinced. Surely, they have played fine matches, but given the young team they are likely to have significant ups and downs - and I think they have just experienced the ups. Esbjerg are playing with confidence – stats are not particularly good, but can to a large degree be explained by Esbjerg sitting back to secure early leads. FC Nordsjælland deserve to be favourites given the home field advantage, but otherwise I see this as two fairly even teams. I pick the away side here as Tip of the Week as I think Esbjerg also has a good history against FC Nordsjælland.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.51 at Cashpoint

Remaining match previews will arrive later..