Week 26 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-OB

Friday 22/4 18.00

FC Midtjylland are starting to find some form. Well, they are not playing spectacularly, but they are starting to win fairly even matches like the top teams do. They have started to obtain some consistency in the line-up, which is a vital thing for establishing a successful team. FC Midtjylland have been good at getting shots in 2016 (TSR: 57.5%), but they have too many shots from outside the box (54%). I find this quite peculiar as FC Midtjylland with their moneyball strategy should know that shots from the distance are largely of low quality, but I guess someone failed to give Sisto the info. Important defensive midfielder Sparv returns from a ban, why FC Midtjylland will be able to field the strongest line-up (ignoring long-term injuries). OB have done better than I expected in 2016. A big help is the new goalkeeper Grytebust. OB had a low saving percentage in autumn (66%), but after dumping Ukrainian keeper Koval, they now have a saving percentage of 81% in 2016. That is unsustainable high, but I don’t think their long-run saving percentage is as low as 66% anymore. Offensively, they have some power in Falk, Jacobsen and Festersen. Unfortunately, Jacobsen is doubtful with a stomach injury, and OB typically needs the trio to be united to have success. OB will also miss defensive midfielder El Makrini who is banned. He is mister stability on the central part of the pitch, so his absence could potentially be quite hurtful.

I think OB have obtained more points than deserved in 2016, mainly due to overperformance by the defence. When luck fades, OB could get problems as they concede more chances than they create. FC Midtjylland on the other hand typically dominates their matches, and while they have a tendency of taking too many shots from the distance, I still think they should be clear favourites here given the absences of OB. Just enough for a recommendation.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.5) - 1.82 at Unibet

Hobro-Esbjerg

Saturday 23/4 16.00

Hobro are really poor, but they have been doing better in recent matches, which have been more even matches and not just poor demolition. I think, Hobro are starting to look better defensively, but offensively it is still poor. However, speedy striker Antipas could return here and it would surely improve Hobro’s attack massively. He was a major reason for Hobro’s excellent debut season, but he has been out with injury almost the entire season. Unfortunately, his likely attacking companion George is out with a ban. On the positive side are the return of winger Mikkelsen, back Bøge and midfielder Povlsen from bans. Neither are vital players, but they have all been used a lot this season. Esbjerg have earned a lot of points in 2016, but in truth they have been fairly lucky as opponents have squandered a lot of chances while Esbjerg have been efficient. Against FC Midtjylland, Esbjerg lacked the luck from past matches and finally lost. Esbjerg could have some issues when falling behind. With the current squad they are definitely more comfortable if they can take a very defensive stance. Captain Lekven left the last match with injury, but should be back here.

Hobro have had the upper hand against Esbjerg lately (unlucky not to win the last two head-to-heads) and this could really be a difficult match for Esbjerg as they do not like to dominate matches, which they will be forced to here. With Hobro it is always uncertain what you get, but if anything I would pick them here – I would be hugely surprised to see Esbjerg giving them a big beating as they have only scored 5 goals in 7 matches in 2016 and only won one away match the entire season.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.75) – 1.90 at Bet365

SønderjyskE-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 24/4 13.00

SønderjyskE are doing something incredible at the moment. They are placed second after 25 rounds, who would have expected that? They have one of the slimmest budgets and originate in city with a population of only 20 thousand. Nevertheless, they are doing something right. They are so committed to the strategy: hard work and direct counter-attacks, and they do it really well. However, they sometimes have issues on the own pitch as they struggle when having to take charge of a match. SønderjyskE’s stats are also fairly average, but they have been successful largely due to a high efficiency (38% scoring percentage in 2016, league average 27%). This cannot go own and you cannot expect the opposing keeper to make two costly mistakes like last weekend at AaB. SønderjyskE continue to have a number of defensive missings, but most importantly defensive midfielder Drachmann will miss this match with a ban. He has been vital in SønderjyskE’s success this season. Rømer will probably back-up, but I think he is fairly ordinary. FC Nordsjælland have performed way better than I expected in 2016. They have such a young squad, most players are under 24 years, but despite of this, they have played many fine matches. Their seems to be a big belief in the work of new head coach Hjulmand who is kind of a club legend after securing the first league a few years ago. This team is not as good, but it has talent. Offensively, it is very interesting to see the likes of Mor, Mikkelsen and John, but they lack a true striker, why FC Nordsjælland also are placed last on the shots in the box-measure (42%).

Just looking at the table, this would look like a clear home win. However, I am not so sure. Yes, SønderjyskE have above expectations, but they have also had a fair share of luck. I actually don’t think the current squad, especially with the absence of Drachmann, should be much better than FC Nordsjælland. Therefore, I believe the away win has some value, although it is of course a concern that FC Nordsjælland tend to be significantly worse when playing away from home. However, they won here the last time they visited and I am willing to give another go here. I think the risky away win has most value, but you could pick other version if you are risk averse.

Recommendation: 2 – 3.60 at Unibet

Viborg-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 24/4 16.00

Viborg took a severe beating in Odense (5-1) last weekend and it was hurtful as I had them as Tip of the Week. My impression was that Viborg’s match ended after 12 minutes, when the two offensive stars Akharraz and Deble were both subbed with injuries. Although it is the defence that have taken most credit for Viborg, it is in my opinion with big help from these two players, as they without much support are able to create so many problems for the opposition, so the opposition cannot invest so much offensively. When they are not their, it is clear that Viborg will be way more fragile. Unfortunately for Viborg, both will miss this match (Akharraz is seriously injured, sadly), and defensive midfielder Lerager is banned. It is not a good outset for Viborg, who does not have much to play for. FC Copenhagen took a vital win against Brøndby in an intense cup semi-final on Wednesday. Now they are on to the final and focus should now be on securing the title. It is looking good, but it is not sure yet (my model says 98%). A loss here and some other teams might get some optimism, so still a lot to play for. It will be interesting to see if FC Copenhagen will rotate a little bit. Naturally, it would be hurtful, but FC Copenhagen have the strongest squad depth in the league.

If Viborg had Deble, Akharraz and Lerager, I would surely pick them at current odds. They don’t and I think it makes a huge difference. I pick the FC Copenhagen win, and I even think it is valuable enough to recommend it.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.85 at Bet365

Brøndby-AGF

Sunday 24/4 18.00

Brøndby took a mental hit when losing the cup semi-final with just 20 minutes remaining on Wednesday. Now they have to put all focus on securing a top position in the league, which is still possible. Brøndby have been quite unspectacular following the promotion of Skarbalius to head coach. They do not create a lot, but they do not concede many chances either. In fact, stats suggest that Brøndby are fairly average. The squad situation seems to be getting better after a lot of defensive injuries, although right back Larsson left the last match with a minor injury. AGF are in another world after securing their first journey to the cup final in 20 years after a nice comeback against AaB on Thursday. However, all focus will surely be on the cup now as the league is over for AGF. They also have one day less for resting and it will be interesting to see if they are forced to rotate a bit. AGF have actually done fairly well in 2016, but lacked some efficiency in front of opposition goal (23% scoring percentage), but more importantly having a really poor saving percentage (58%, league average 71%). Goalkeeper Steffen Rasmussen does not impress me and I think AGF could prevent a number of goals by benching him, but he is a club veteran and I don’t think the coach dares.

Brøndby have strong home support. Their ability to protect own goal is also a lot better, so even if they have the same number of chances, I think they should be favourite to win here. Brøndby have an extra day of rest, which also could be important. I was expecting odds around 2.00, so I think home win is decent value.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.10 at Betfair Sportsbook/Danske Spil

Randers-AaB

Monday 25/4 19.00

Randers won in AGF last weekend as expected. It was largely due to AGF resting players, but Randers deserve credit. They have been a lot better than points gained this spring. It seems like they have left the hype with Keller/Borring behind them and continued to deliver solid efforts. They are number 1 in 2016 when it comes to SoTR (64%) and the current form is excellent. They have dominated their opponents in the last three matches. Striker Ishak was out in the last match and could also be out here. It would be a loss as I think he is their most competent striker. AaB are having a really bad 2016. They were just knocked out of the cup on Thursday after getting really close to the final. It rarely happens that a team eliminated from the cup semi-final wins in the upcoming round. In fact, we have to go several years back to see the last time a Superliga team managed to do so. So it will be a challenge for AaB to focus on this game, although they should be highly motivated as a top position is still within reach. AaB have been poor throughout 2016, partly suffering from injuries but also for the lack of commitment from league top goalscorer Spalvis (his mind seems to be in Lisbon). AaB have a SoTR of only 41% - in autumn it was 55%, so the current poor run is not due to being unlucky, but mainly due to being less productive.

Randers are in good form at the moment. They are producing chances and difficult to score against. AaB have had a tough recent schedule, just been eliminated from the cup and been fairly poor throughout 2016. I think the home win deserves a shot here and I will even nominate it to the Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 1.89 at Unibet