Week 27 Superliga previews

AGF-Viborg

Friday 29/4 18.00

AGF will be playing the cup final six days later, which is the highlight of their season. Question is if they can keep focus for this match. I think their head coach will be very eager to get a good experience prior to the final, so strongest line-up is to be expected. However, AGF will miss the vital striker Duncan, who is banned. He is important for AGF’s style of playing as they can use him as a target for long balls and no other players has his aerial skills, so AGF will have to chance their style of playing a bit. The possible replacements in attack are not impressive (Lange and Vatsadze), but AGF have a team that is overall quite solid. Only minus is the poor goalkeeper. Rasmussen holds the lowest saving percentage in 2016 – only 58% (league average: 72%) he is especially poor on set pieces. Viborg have performed way above expectations this season. They have looked good in 2016, but have struggled to get their game going in the last two matches after losing offensive profiles Deble and Akharraz to injuries. Deble could be back here, which should be a big boost as this give Viborg some speed to threaten with in attack. Captain and centre back Rask could also return after injury, while regular central midfielder Lerager returns from a ban. Solid right back Pallesen is banned. The same is the case for midfielder Fochive, but he is a back-up player.

Much depends on the squad situation in Viborg. If Deble and Rask are back here, they look fairly strong. If not, they will find it very difficult here. AGF with overall solid team, but they have issues in the decisive areas. What to pick? I have AGF as slim favourites, so that is my pick, but if you spot Deble and Rask in the line-up, the away team could be a better choice.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.85 at Bet365

Hobro-SønderjyskE

Saturday 30/4 17.00

Hobro added a point last weekend after a late goal against Esbjerg. They deserved it after another fine display. In the last four matches Hobro have performed quite okay and if they continue they should be able to take a win at some point. I still think they are giving away too many chances and it is almost standard that they concede two goals. Offensively, I think they create enough chances to score more goals, but strikers have been really inefficient. It is important that speedy Antipas is back, but he is still hampered by an injury and heading for an operation, so it is always a bit uncertain if he will be playing. Hobro will be out left back Tjørnelund and more importantly defensive midfielder Damborg (bans). Damborg is a vital player for protecting the backline, so his absence is a blow. SønderjyskE are continuing to add wins. They have been exceptional at coming from behind in 2016. They have a great mentality and just keeps on fighting. I think the current position in the table is far more than what their performances justify, I see them more as mid-table given their stats, but that is still fairly good given SønderjyskE’s budget. For this match, they will be without midfielder Madsen who is banned. He has been in spectacular form in 2016, scoring five goals, so it is a blow.

Hobro appears to be improving in form, but I think the absence of Damborg will be an issue here. On the other hand, SønderjyskE continue to take wins and have such a good mentality that they will undoubtedly make life difficult for Hobro. SønderjyskE have won the two previous meetings in the season 2-0 and 3-0. I expect them to take another win here, but the odds are just too low to make it recommendation.

Idea: 2  (AH -0.5) – 1.72 at Unibet  

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Sunday 1/5 13.00

FC Nordsjælland played a decent match in SønderjyskE, but ended up with zero points after being close to taking a late win. It is the kind of match that FC Nordsjælland usually hates: away game against a physical team. Now they will face a similar match with the important difference that it is at home on own artificial grass. FC Nordsjælland have impressed me in 2016. With a small squad with many youngsters that have shown quality. However, it concerns me that they don’t get many big chances and fire way too many long-range shots, partly due to playing without a true striker. FC Nordsjælland’s most physical player in midfield, Petry, is banned and it will be a blow in a match like this. Winger Mikkelsen missed the last match and could be out again here. Randers are in my opinion one of the best teams of 2016. In 8 games in 2016 they have only conceded 29 shots from the penalty box, which is the league lowest (league average is 56!). This shows that Randers got their defensive organisation in order. Only problem has been the inability to convert chances. They have the lowest scoring percentage in the league in 2016 (even worse than Hobro!) at 18.2% of the shots on target. In that light it is positive that striker Ishak looks to be back from injury. He can replace Lundberg who is playing without confidence and has not scored since August.

Weather is set to be poor on Sunday, which would probably be an advantage for Randers as a more physical match is to their liking. I hold Randers as small favourites here given their strong performance in 2016, but FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team so don’t underestimate them. They have beaten FC Copenhagen and FC Midtjylland in Farum in 2016, which shows quality. However, if I had to pick I would go with a small bet on Randers. Randers have also won the last four head-to-head matches without conceding.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Unibet

AaB-Brøndby

Sunday 1/5 16.00

AaB are in poor form at the moment. They create nothing in Randers last weekend, but the players were probably tired after playing a tough cup match in midweek. Now they have had a week of rest before this very important match. AaB are expected to be able to field the strongest possible eleven, and they should start to find some form soon since they have a lot of offensive quality, which they have not shown yet. At home against Brøndby, they will surely have strong home support. Major concern is the situation with Spalvis, the league top goalscorer, who has been benched in recent matches due to a poor attitude. AaB need him back at his best to be a big threat again. I expect him to be given the chance here. Brøndby have done fine under Skarbalius reign, but it is really not entertaining football. They play with main focus on the defensive part, why 7 out of the 8 matches with him as head coach has ended with under 2.5 goals. Brøndby do have offensive issues as they lack quality in the final part of the pitch, but they are not investing a lot either. Defensively, they look pretty solid especially when Agger is fit to play.

It will be a match between a team wishing to play offensive football and a team wishing to defend primarily. What will win? AaB will undoubtedly be pushed forward by the strong home support and Brøndby have delivered some rather poor away efforts of late. Therefore my pick would be the home side here, although AaB’s poor form makes me stick with it is an idea pick.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.98 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 1/5 18.00

After FC Copenhagen dropped some points in Viborg last weekend, the title race has opened a little bit. My model currently has FC Copenhagen at 97% chance of winning the title with FC Midtjylland being the most dangerous rival. Therefore, this is a match to win and the home team will surely be motivated. It is good news for FC Copenhagen to have a round clear of midweek games after a heavy schedule, so there should be no fatigue here. FC Copenhagen have clearly been the most dominant side during 2016 and just last week they outshot Viborg 25-5. FC Copenhagen have a very strong team with excellent squad depth and currently no injuries or bans of importance. They have won all four league home games in 2016 with a total score 11-3. FC Midtjylland are finally starting to get some points after an abysmal start to 2016. They have established some consistency in the squad selection despite having a number of injuries. FC Midtjylland have a fine squad depth so their selection is still pretty strong, but in order to fully match FC Copenhagen they cannot afford being without several potential starters. Left back Novak missed the last match with a minor injury and could be back here.

We get another “final” in Parken. So far FC Copenhagen have beaten SønderjyskE and AaB in similar “finals” without problems and I expect the same to happen here, although FC Midtjylland are starting to pick up the pace. I think the odds for home win should be a tad lower than what is currently offered and I actually think it deserves being selected as Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.92 at Unibet

Update: Kusk is set to miss the match for FC Copenhagen. He is the creative player on FC Copenhagen's midfield so it is a setback for the pick. His normal replacement Toutouh is doubtful.

Esbjerg-OB

Monday 2/5 19.00

Esbjerg are starting to fade after a point wise strong start to 2016. I think they had it coming. They have not been able to produce a lot offensively, and their saving percentage defensively was off the charts during the first match. Now it appears they are slowly regressing towards more normal results given their chance domination. Esbjerg have a SoTR of only 39% in 2016. Hardly impressing, and it shows that Esbjerg are not exactly dominating their matches. In fact, Esbjerg are the team that has conceded the most shots from the penalty box, 82, in 2016. It is really impressive that they have not conceded more than 8 goals, but goalkeeper Højbjerg deserves credit. Esbjerg have a decent team as such, but I think they lack extraordinary players in a team of average players. OB have extraordinary players in the offensive part in Falk, Festersen and Jacobsen. Apart from this, I think they are worse than Esbjerg. I don’t like OB’s defence, and I think they have actually been a bit lucky with the points earned in 2016. However, I see them as stronger than Esbjerg, mainly due to their ability to create chances. OB’s SoTR in 2016 is 48%. OB will be without left back Barrett, but he is not a vital player. Strong defensive midfielder Makrini returns from a ban.

It is a match between two teams that have over-performed in 2016. I think OB are the stronger team here, why I expect a rather even match given Esbjerg’s home advantage. The price is not spectacular but it is just enough to make it a recommendation. I go for the straight win as I have a rather low draw probability due to OB’s boom-or-bust nature. Also tempted to go for over here.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.90 at Tipico
Idea: Over 2.5 - 2.00 at Bet365

Week 26 round-up

Average round. Had many recommendations, but just needed a bit more luck. FC Copenhagen were a lot better than Viborg, but failed to score, while FC Nordsjælland had the chance to take the lead, but instead lost in the final minute. Tip of the Week was a money back. Randers were the better side, but failed to score against a poor AaB. Overall, it was a small plus for the round and that is the key to success, so hopefully it just continues next weekend. Mostly good spots again.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

FC Midtjylland-OB 1

Our pick: 1.82

Closing odds: 1.75

SønderjyskE-FC Nordsjælland 2

Our pick: 3.60

Closing odds: 3.60

Viborg-FC Copenhagen 2

Our pick: 1.85

Closing odds: 1.68

Brøndby-AGF 1

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 2.10

Randers-AaB (+0) 1 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.89

Closing odds: 1.67

Week 26 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-OB

Friday 22/4 18.00

FC Midtjylland are starting to find some form. Well, they are not playing spectacularly, but they are starting to win fairly even matches like the top teams do. They have started to obtain some consistency in the line-up, which is a vital thing for establishing a successful team. FC Midtjylland have been good at getting shots in 2016 (TSR: 57.5%), but they have too many shots from outside the box (54%). I find this quite peculiar as FC Midtjylland with their moneyball strategy should know that shots from the distance are largely of low quality, but I guess someone failed to give Sisto the info. Important defensive midfielder Sparv returns from a ban, why FC Midtjylland will be able to field the strongest line-up (ignoring long-term injuries). OB have done better than I expected in 2016. A big help is the new goalkeeper Grytebust. OB had a low saving percentage in autumn (66%), but after dumping Ukrainian keeper Koval, they now have a saving percentage of 81% in 2016. That is unsustainable high, but I don’t think their long-run saving percentage is as low as 66% anymore. Offensively, they have some power in Falk, Jacobsen and Festersen. Unfortunately, Jacobsen is doubtful with a stomach injury, and OB typically needs the trio to be united to have success. OB will also miss defensive midfielder El Makrini who is banned. He is mister stability on the central part of the pitch, so his absence could potentially be quite hurtful.

I think OB have obtained more points than deserved in 2016, mainly due to overperformance by the defence. When luck fades, OB could get problems as they concede more chances than they create. FC Midtjylland on the other hand typically dominates their matches, and while they have a tendency of taking too many shots from the distance, I still think they should be clear favourites here given the absences of OB. Just enough for a recommendation.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.5) - 1.82 at Unibet

Hobro-Esbjerg

Saturday 23/4 16.00

Hobro are really poor, but they have been doing better in recent matches, which have been more even matches and not just poor demolition. I think, Hobro are starting to look better defensively, but offensively it is still poor. However, speedy striker Antipas could return here and it would surely improve Hobro’s attack massively. He was a major reason for Hobro’s excellent debut season, but he has been out with injury almost the entire season. Unfortunately, his likely attacking companion George is out with a ban. On the positive side are the return of winger Mikkelsen, back Bøge and midfielder Povlsen from bans. Neither are vital players, but they have all been used a lot this season. Esbjerg have earned a lot of points in 2016, but in truth they have been fairly lucky as opponents have squandered a lot of chances while Esbjerg have been efficient. Against FC Midtjylland, Esbjerg lacked the luck from past matches and finally lost. Esbjerg could have some issues when falling behind. With the current squad they are definitely more comfortable if they can take a very defensive stance. Captain Lekven left the last match with injury, but should be back here.

Hobro have had the upper hand against Esbjerg lately (unlucky not to win the last two head-to-heads) and this could really be a difficult match for Esbjerg as they do not like to dominate matches, which they will be forced to here. With Hobro it is always uncertain what you get, but if anything I would pick them here – I would be hugely surprised to see Esbjerg giving them a big beating as they have only scored 5 goals in 7 matches in 2016 and only won one away match the entire season.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.75) – 1.90 at Bet365

SønderjyskE-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 24/4 13.00

SønderjyskE are doing something incredible at the moment. They are placed second after 25 rounds, who would have expected that? They have one of the slimmest budgets and originate in city with a population of only 20 thousand. Nevertheless, they are doing something right. They are so committed to the strategy: hard work and direct counter-attacks, and they do it really well. However, they sometimes have issues on the own pitch as they struggle when having to take charge of a match. SønderjyskE’s stats are also fairly average, but they have been successful largely due to a high efficiency (38% scoring percentage in 2016, league average 27%). This cannot go own and you cannot expect the opposing keeper to make two costly mistakes like last weekend at AaB. SønderjyskE continue to have a number of defensive missings, but most importantly defensive midfielder Drachmann will miss this match with a ban. He has been vital in SønderjyskE’s success this season. Rømer will probably back-up, but I think he is fairly ordinary. FC Nordsjælland have performed way better than I expected in 2016. They have such a young squad, most players are under 24 years, but despite of this, they have played many fine matches. Their seems to be a big belief in the work of new head coach Hjulmand who is kind of a club legend after securing the first league a few years ago. This team is not as good, but it has talent. Offensively, it is very interesting to see the likes of Mor, Mikkelsen and John, but they lack a true striker, why FC Nordsjælland also are placed last on the shots in the box-measure (42%).

Just looking at the table, this would look like a clear home win. However, I am not so sure. Yes, SønderjyskE have above expectations, but they have also had a fair share of luck. I actually don’t think the current squad, especially with the absence of Drachmann, should be much better than FC Nordsjælland. Therefore, I believe the away win has some value, although it is of course a concern that FC Nordsjælland tend to be significantly worse when playing away from home. However, they won here the last time they visited and I am willing to give another go here. I think the risky away win has most value, but you could pick other version if you are risk averse.

Recommendation: 2 – 3.60 at Unibet

Viborg-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 24/4 16.00

Viborg took a severe beating in Odense (5-1) last weekend and it was hurtful as I had them as Tip of the Week. My impression was that Viborg’s match ended after 12 minutes, when the two offensive stars Akharraz and Deble were both subbed with injuries. Although it is the defence that have taken most credit for Viborg, it is in my opinion with big help from these two players, as they without much support are able to create so many problems for the opposition, so the opposition cannot invest so much offensively. When they are not their, it is clear that Viborg will be way more fragile. Unfortunately for Viborg, both will miss this match (Akharraz is seriously injured, sadly), and defensive midfielder Lerager is banned. It is not a good outset for Viborg, who does not have much to play for. FC Copenhagen took a vital win against Brøndby in an intense cup semi-final on Wednesday. Now they are on to the final and focus should now be on securing the title. It is looking good, but it is not sure yet (my model says 98%). A loss here and some other teams might get some optimism, so still a lot to play for. It will be interesting to see if FC Copenhagen will rotate a little bit. Naturally, it would be hurtful, but FC Copenhagen have the strongest squad depth in the league.

If Viborg had Deble, Akharraz and Lerager, I would surely pick them at current odds. They don’t and I think it makes a huge difference. I pick the FC Copenhagen win, and I even think it is valuable enough to recommend it.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.85 at Bet365

Brøndby-AGF

Sunday 24/4 18.00

Brøndby took a mental hit when losing the cup semi-final with just 20 minutes remaining on Wednesday. Now they have to put all focus on securing a top position in the league, which is still possible. Brøndby have been quite unspectacular following the promotion of Skarbalius to head coach. They do not create a lot, but they do not concede many chances either. In fact, stats suggest that Brøndby are fairly average. The squad situation seems to be getting better after a lot of defensive injuries, although right back Larsson left the last match with a minor injury. AGF are in another world after securing their first journey to the cup final in 20 years after a nice comeback against AaB on Thursday. However, all focus will surely be on the cup now as the league is over for AGF. They also have one day less for resting and it will be interesting to see if they are forced to rotate a bit. AGF have actually done fairly well in 2016, but lacked some efficiency in front of opposition goal (23% scoring percentage), but more importantly having a really poor saving percentage (58%, league average 71%). Goalkeeper Steffen Rasmussen does not impress me and I think AGF could prevent a number of goals by benching him, but he is a club veteran and I don’t think the coach dares.

Brøndby have strong home support. Their ability to protect own goal is also a lot better, so even if they have the same number of chances, I think they should be favourite to win here. Brøndby have an extra day of rest, which also could be important. I was expecting odds around 2.00, so I think home win is decent value.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.10 at Betfair Sportsbook/Danske Spil

Randers-AaB

Monday 25/4 19.00

Randers won in AGF last weekend as expected. It was largely due to AGF resting players, but Randers deserve credit. They have been a lot better than points gained this spring. It seems like they have left the hype with Keller/Borring behind them and continued to deliver solid efforts. They are number 1 in 2016 when it comes to SoTR (64%) and the current form is excellent. They have dominated their opponents in the last three matches. Striker Ishak was out in the last match and could also be out here. It would be a loss as I think he is their most competent striker. AaB are having a really bad 2016. They were just knocked out of the cup on Thursday after getting really close to the final. It rarely happens that a team eliminated from the cup semi-final wins in the upcoming round. In fact, we have to go several years back to see the last time a Superliga team managed to do so. So it will be a challenge for AaB to focus on this game, although they should be highly motivated as a top position is still within reach. AaB have been poor throughout 2016, partly suffering from injuries but also for the lack of commitment from league top goalscorer Spalvis (his mind seems to be in Lisbon). AaB have a SoTR of only 41% - in autumn it was 55%, so the current poor run is not due to being unlucky, but mainly due to being less productive.

Randers are in good form at the moment. They are producing chances and difficult to score against. AaB have had a tough recent schedule, just been eliminated from the cup and been fairly poor throughout 2016. I think the home win deserves a shot here and I will even nominate it to the Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 1.89 at Unibet