Week 23 Superliga previews

AaB-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 1/4 18.00

AaB are the negative surprise for me. I expected more from them after a terrific autumn, but they have been far from their best in 2016. AaB have only 2 draws and 2 losses until now, and I don’t think they have deserved much more. It is strange as they have only lost right back Dalsgaard from the team that gave them so much success, but it seems like the league top goalscorer Spalvis is not looking committed at the moment (he has signed a contract with Sporting Lisbon starting from summer). However, AaB have so much experience and quality that I would expect them to increase their level soon – especially in front of own fans. AaB will be without left back Ahlmann. FC Nordsjælland have surprised me positively. Quite remarkably they have managed to beat FC Copenhagen and FC Midtjylland in 2016! Both these games were on own artificial pitch, where they really look fine. However, the two away matches at OB and Viborg have been more discomforting. Especially in the game against Viborg as FC Nordsjælland were limited to 1 shot in the box through the entire match. It is natural that an incredibly young team like FC Nordsjælland will have their ups and downs. FC Nordsjælland sold central midfielder Thorarinsson to Rosenborg during the week. He is a fine player, but FC Nordsjælland have similar players in the squad. FC Nordsjælland have called 21 players and this could indicate that some key players have problems.

I did not have high expectations for FC Nordsjælland at the start of 2016, but they have done better than expected. Still, I don’t think their very young team (average age 22 years in last match) can continue to beat the big guys. AaB should be highly motivated here as they need to get points in order to stay on the podium. The price is not spectacular and maybe I am naïve when it comes to AaB, but I think they will turn it around here. Only idea pick though.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.875 at Bet365   

AGF-Hobro

Saturday 2/4 16.00

AGF are still without a win in the four games in 2016. Despite of this, I think we have seen some positive things from AGF. The addition of Duncan in the attack has been very important, as he is a constant threat to every opponent. AGF are the best in 2016 in terms of SoTR (65.8%) and they have actually also really improved their ability to get shots fired from the box (league high 73%), which seems to be a focus point. AGF have been unlucky according to stats, as only own inefficiency (especially defensively has led to the lack of wins. Central midfielder Danny Olsen could return from injury, so AGF can field the strongest team. Hobro are going down with all certainty. They have lost belief and they are not playing as a team. I actually think they have some fine players, but it is useless, when they are not united. Hobro have lost all four matches in 2016 with a score of 0-12. Yes, it has been bad. They should have scored though and the return of speedy striker Antipas, they have an extra weapon. Hobro have beaten AGF twice this season, so it is a favourite opponent for them (although they later lost one match officially due to having used a ineligible player). Central defender Justesen returns from ban, while striker George could return from injury.

It is the best team in 2016 against the worst according to SoTR. In that light it seems like a clear home win, but I just cannot accept such a low price for an AGF team in the bottom of the table – they are not exactly FC Copenhagen. On the other hand, there is no confidence in Hobro at the moment. I advice to just skip the match. My stats model suggest that odds are too high on Hobro, so if anything go for a risky pick.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 7.05 at Cashpoint

OB-Randers

Sunday 3/4 13.00

OB have had an amazing start to 2016, which has seen them enter the race for top 3. However, it seems very optimistic to believe that OB can obtain such a position, as they are far from complete. They have upgraded on the goalkeeper position, but the back line is still rather unimpressive and the midfield is not top level. Offensively, they are very strong though. I have OB marked as the luckiest team in 2016 so far. I don’t believe they have deserved so many points so far, and I don’t think they can continue with such a high saving percentage/scoring percentage (PDO: 1242), when their chance creation is pretty average (SoTR: 51.3%). OB have reportedly no important absences. Randers have been suffering from off-the-pitch issues due to the captain dating the wife of the key winger. This has led to the key winger, Borring, to cancel his contract with the club, while the captain (Keller) has been demoted and so far not been called up to the squad. This is naturally quite a test for Randers to lose two very important players. On the pitch, Randers have struggled to get points (only one point in four matches), but the underlying stats are decent as Randers seem to be creating chances (SoTR: 55.6%), but just not executing. I expect Randers to improve, but all the off-the-pitch noise is likely to still have an effect as long as the issue with Keller is not settled.

Normally, I would hold Randers as the better team here, but with all the disturbing things in the background, it is not easy for them at the moment. Even though I still think Randers could be worth a shot. They should be able to match OB to a large extent in this match, and Tipico is a bit above the market here. Only slim value for me though, so only an idea pick.

Idea: 2 – 3.10 at Tipico

FC Copenhagen-SønderjyskE

Sunday 3/4 16.00

Match between number 1 and 2. If SønderjyskE win, there will be some excitement in the top. If not, the race is surely over. FC Copenhagen suffered a surprising loss in the last round. They lacked some focus, but also struggled due to the absence of both tank centerforwards (Santander and Cornelius). Both are now available, which should improve the offensive firepower of FC Copenhagen. At the same time, central defender Zanka returns from a ban. This means that FC Copenhagen will only have one important absence, and that is central midfielder Kvist, but FC Copenhagen have decent alternatives in Toutouh or Keita. I think the loss to FC Nordsjælland was a wake-up call, and I expect FC Copenhagen to return to their dominant style, as they are undoubtedly the best side in the league currently. SønderjyskE continue to impress, despite being a minnow in terms of budget and fan support. But they know how to win matches, especially against the weaker teams in the league. However, recently they have also managed to beat Brøndby and FC Midtjylland, which is quite unusual as they usually struggle against the top teams. SønderjyskE are a great counter-attacking team with a strong focus on teamwork. They will be without striker Bechmann here who is banned. Alternative Dalgaard is usually a fine replacement, but not for a match like this, as he is expected to be very alone on top and he is not a speedy nor hard working player. This could put even more pressure on the back line. Based on the fundamental stats SønderjyskE are really over performing (a bit lucky, I should say). They rank 9th in terms of SoTR through 2016 (48.4%) which suggests that SønderjyskE are really efficient at the moment. I don’t see them continuing to earn as many points which so average underlying figures.

Although they are only separated by one spot, I see a massive difference between the two sides here. FC Copenhagen should be dominant from the start, and with Bechmann out, I picture a scenario, where SønderjyskE will find it more difficult to practice their counter-attacking strategy. I think, FC Copenhagen will focus on winning by more than one, so something random does not happen at the end, why I also think the -1 line is fine here.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -1) – 2.00 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.17 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-Brøndby

Sunday 3/4 18.00

FC Midtjylland have had a catastrophic start to 2016 and have only managed to beat Hobro at home in the league. They looked fine in the last round against SønderjyskE and took an early 2-0, but a poor second half display led to a 3-2 loss, which just shows how poor the confidence is in FC Midtjylland at the moment. The loss of Sviatchenko and Duncan in the winter break seems to have had a big effect. However, the overall quality of the team, should lead to more points earned than currently. FC Midtjylland will have right back Andre Rømer back from a ban. Brøndby have had a very defensive focus since Skarbalius was called in as the new head coach. With him in charge (2 games), Brøndby have scored once and not yet conceded. Skarbalius has for instance started to use Elmander on top, and he is surely not the dangerous striker he once were, but he is good at working hard defensively. Brøndby should also benefit as vital players are slowly returning from injury (Agger, Albrechtsen and Kahlenberg). Offensively, they do not look very compelling though.

I believe this will be a match where both teams will start cautiously. Therefore, my preferred pick is that the score is even at half time. Statistics approve as Brøndby have 13/22 half time draws and FC Midtjylland have 10/22 half time draws. I also expect this to be an under match, but odds are just a bit short I think.

Idea: X at halftime – 2.05 at Bet365

Esbjerg-Viborg

Monday 4/4 19.00

Esbjerg have had a terrific start to 2016 in terms of points earned. They have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. However, to be frank, they have not been the best team in any of the matches, but just had some luck – something they lacked in autumn. You cannot discard that winning matches leads to better confidence and better performance, but in total I am not that impressed by Esbjerg. Yes, they have a fine midfield and some efficient strikers, but the central defence is still among the weakest in the league. Their SoTR ratio of 28% through 2016 also suggests that Esbjerg are not exactly dominating their matches, and it is not because they are just taking chances from better positions than the opponent. Only 52% of Esbjerg’s shots come from the box, while 71% of the shots conceded comes from the box. In other words, as opponents start to be more efficient, Esbjerg will see declining results. Esbjerg will be without striker van Buren, but otherwise no important absences. Viborg have had terrific start to 2016 with 2 wins and 2 draws. In my opinion they have transmitted a different performance level than Esbjerg, as I believe Viborg have been dominating 3 of these matches. To be fair, it has also been an easy schedule, but it proves that Viborg are a fine team. They have strong defensive foundation and good offensive weapons in Akharraz and Deble. Viborg are really good at limiting opposing shots to outside the box, and even despite of this, they can post a SoTR through 2016 at 62%! This is bound to go down, but it shows that Viborg are playing well at the moment. Viborg will be without rotation midfielder Wichmann, but otherwise no reported absences.

Viborg are looking very good at the moment and they often tend to do well against Esbjerg (won the last two head-to-head matches). Viborg like these away matches where they can sit back and counter. Esbjerg are however often significantly stronger at home than away, but despite of this I believe this match will be fairly even. Unfortunately, the bookies have also seen the light in Viborg, why the odds are already lower than what you would normally expect for Esbjerg vs. Viborg, but I still think they are worth a shot.

Recommendation:  2 – 3.00 at Tipico