Week 20 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 3/3 20.00

Very decisive match for the upcoming months. If FC Copenhagen win they look odds on to win the title, while a FC Midtjylland win would really open up the title race. FC Midtjylland have started with a heavy schedule, facing Manchester United twice followed by an intense match against other top team AaB. Now, they finalise the heavy schedule with this match. A key player with a very intense style of playing like Pione Sisto could be a bit fatigued, but otherwise the schedule should not be a problem so early in the season. FC Midtjylland have a huge squad and they look particularly good at the centre of the pitch. The situation is not optimal in attack and defence though. In attack, they have made changes for every match in this season and no striker has done particularly well, while the defence looks weakened after losing Erik Sviatchenko in the winter break. The ruling is still out for replacement signing Nikolay Bodurov. FC Copenhagen were very strong defensively against Esbjerg in the opener. Esbjerg scored a goal, but it was through a deflected shot. In fact, Esbjerg only had two shots in the entire game, both from outside the box. Offensively, FC Copenhagen were not too impressive. The attack could need some games to get fully into gear, but they showed once again that they are the best team in the league when it comes to finishing off crosses (from which they scored both goals).

FC Midtjylland went 16-0-1 at home last season and they have a strong and expensive squad. In that light, the home win is tempting given the price. However, I have some concerns given the current situation in defence and attack. Therefore, I would rather pick FC Copenhagen here as they look to be in a better overall condition at the moment, but the price is simply not worth a recommendation.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 1.81 at Unibet

AaB-OB

Friday 4/3 18.00

AaB got a good result in Herning (1-1). They played a fine match and showed glimpses of the sparkling attack from autumn. This should be a match for AaB’s attack. At home they are expected to push forward in numbers against OB’s fragile defence. AaB will be without talismanic midfielder Rasmus Würtz. Würtz is a vital player as he secures the balance of the AaB team and the alternatives are nowhere near his level. AaB also risks being without veteran central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen who is doubtful. If he is out, AaB will field a fine but young defence. OB are very strong in attack, but quite fragile at the back. This was proven once more against AGF last weekend. They have huge problems defending their own goal, but with the likes of Falk, Jacobsen and Festersen in attack, they are a threat for every opponent. OB will miss two suspended players, left back Skulason and midfielder Greve. Not the most vital players, but OB lack a good replacement on the left back particularly, which good be a problem against AaB’s energetic wingers.

This does look like a home win – and AaB also smashed OB 5-1 earlier this season. The price has dropped quite a bit though on both overs and home win and I simply can’t recommend either at the current prices. PartyBets is a bit above the market with their 1.70 on over 2.5 goals and I think this is just around value.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.70 at PartyBets

Hobro-Viborg

Saturday 5/3 16.00

Hobro need a win here. If they want to survive it is matches like this that has to end with three points. Hobro did not get the best start as they lost 1-0 at Brøndby. They did create less than I expected offensively, although they have some potent players in George and Park. For this match, they could see their offensive star player Antipas return as a joker after missing the entire season. He has been looking good at the reserves. Hobro lack some power in the centre of the pitch, where they struggle to take control of matches. Viborg got a late point in the opener against FC Nordsjælland. However, they should have had more than that as they dominated the match. Viborg are a physically strong team with offensive X-factor in players like Deble and Akharraz. They are very focused on the defensive organisation and that is why they have only conceded 1.3 goals per match this season despite being one of the weaker sides in general. Viborg will miss central midfielder Lerager and the replacement will either be new-signing Fochive or Wichmann, who has not impressed at his time in Viborg.

Looking at the teams player-by-player, I must admit I only see Viborg as slightly better. At the same time, we can expect Hobro to come out with fire in the eyes as they must get something here. Therefore, I see this match as fairly even – this was also the case in the last H2H, where it ended 1-1. The price seems a bit too high for Hobro, but caution as they have been disappointing throughout the season.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.94 at Unibet

Esbjerg-Randers

Sunday 6/3 13.00

Esbjerg started the season with great energy. They played with a high work rate, and with a very defensive mindset. They were also able to defend quite well against a strong FC Copenhagen side, but they created nothing offensively. This could be the problem for Esbjerg as they have focused a lot on defence through the winter and not so much on the attack. Randers should be very disappointed with their first match of 2015 as they dominated SønderjyskE, but conceded an unnecessary late goal to make it a draw. Randers have maintained stability across the winter and I expect the well organised and physical strong team to have a fine spring.

Esbjerg hate playing Randers as they are often dominated physically. 6 out of the last 7 head-to-head matches have ended in a Randers win. With the weather being poor in Denmark; rainy and cold expected, it is to the advantage of the away side. I see better times ahead for Esbjerg, but they have made a lot of winter changes and probably need some more time. This could be a match with many free kicks as Esbjerg seem to be playing more aggressive now, and Randers are an aggressive side per nature.

Ideas: 2 (DNB) – 1.75 at Partybets

Over 22.5 free kicks – 1.85 at Nordicbet

SønderjyskE-Brøndby

Sunday 6/3 16.00

SønderjyskE reported that they were in great shape ahead of the first match of the season. Now they have played two matches and looked pretty weak in both. They do have a team that is cut out for hard work and poor pitches, so this is the time of the year, where they should earn some points. No important absences. Brøndby took a win against Hobro last weekend, which should be a morale booster given their issues with Hobro in the past. The new striker Wilczek got on the scoresheet and a striker with confidence is never a bad thing. Brøndby have defensive issues as their only two central defenders in the squad, Agger and Albrechtsen are both injured. Brøndby are forced to use central midfielder Ørnskov and left back Juelsgaard instead, which is clearly not ideal, but both players have a lot of experience. Brøndby are mostly focused on a good passing game, which could be an issue on a difficult pitch.

Brøndby have had the upper hand on SønderjyskE lately, but it has mostly been in home games. Now they face SønderjyskE in bad weather on a poor pitch and without their defensive general Agger. It could be difficult for Brøndby, although the current form of SønderjyskE scares. I was actually heading for a bet on SønderjyskE, but the odds drop have put the value on Brøndby. They should be a better team than SønderjyskE, who tend to struggle in home games due to their counter-attacking nature. The over odds look very generous. SønderjyskE have gone over in 7 out of 8 home games! Brøndby in 5 out of 9 away games.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.37 at Betfair Sportsbook

AGF-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 6/3 18.00

AGF have had a really good start under new head coach Riddersholm. They are playing with a lot of confidence despite not having the most impressive squad. However, the signing of striker Morten Duncan has been key as his striker abilities have given AGF a player that can win headers and finish with quality. However, AGF have some issues ahead of this match as midfielder Bjarnason who has played strongly so far and central defender Elez are both banned. Furthermore, veteran midfielder Danny Olsen is also in doubt due to injury. It is always a challenge to be without several starters. This will also be the case for FC Copenhagen. This is not do to bans or injuries but the coach’s disposition after some tough matches. FC Copenhagen also have a strong bench, so no matter who will be rested, solid replacements are available. FC Copenhagen are looking like a certain title winner and morale is likely to be high.

Both teams will be without some regulars here. Both are brimming with confidence, and I am sure it will be a match with intensity. It is also a match that easily could end in a draw and I think there is slim value in such a result, which would be acceptable for both. Of course the uncertainty regarding where FC Copenhagen will rest makes it a dangerous match for betting. Waiting on the starting line-ups could provide a good betting opportunity.

Idea: X – 3.60 at Sportingbet

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Monday 7/3 19.00

FC Nordsjælland only earned a point in Viborg thanks to the great display of youngster Emre Mor. Apart from this FC Nordsjælland young team performed poorly and I believe they could face a rather tough spring season. On the bright side is the return of veteran midfielder Martin Vingaard from ban. FC Nordsjælland are also often significantly stronger at home than away. FC Midtjylland have had some tough matches in 2016 and this is the first “easy” match in the schedule. FC Midtjylland are probably without strong central defender Kian Hansen, but apart from this they should be able to field the strongest team. FC Midtjylland have not looked particularly good offensively, but their midfield should be strong enough to dominate FC Nordsjælland, and if that is the case, FC Nordsjælland’s rather young defence will face a real test.

FC Midtjylland have had problems with FC Nordsjælland in the past, but the current FC Nordsjælland team does not convince me. It is very young and without a star player after the winter departure of Bruninho. FC Midtjylland have invested heavily in their side and they have much more quality. Yes, they suffered a some blows after losing to Manchester United and FC Copenhagen, but they should be eager to prove themselves here.

Tip of the Week: 2 – AH (-0.25) 2.08 at Unibet