Week 22 Superliga previews

AaB-AGF
Friday 18/3 18.00

AaB got kicked out of the championship race with a 6-2 loss at FC Copenhagen. AaB played too naïve as they tried to dominate the match, which led the back door wide open to FC Copenhagen counter attacks. AaB have a vulnerable defence, so they are bound to suffer when a match evolves like last Sunday. This is another match for AaB as the opponent are not as strong in general or strong in counter attacking. AaB have a very strong attack and I expect league top goalscorer Spalvis to be fully back after starting on the bench in the last match due to a minor knee injury. It is also positive that the dynamic left back Ahlmann finally seems to be close to the line-up after a lot of injury problems. If both are back, AaB should be able to field the strongest possible line-up. AGF had started 2016 really well, when it comes to creating chances. They have been quite unlucky against Esbjerg and OB not to get more points as they have created a ton of chances – for instance 15 shots in the penalty box against Esbjerg. They are playing with new energy under head coach Riddersholm, but they are yet to show that they are also good against quality opposition. They were not impressive against FC Copenhagen, where they failed to capitalize from being a man up for almost the entire game. Defensive midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen is set to return from a ban. Veteran midfielder Danny Olsen is out with an injury.

Although I think AGF are heading in the right direction, I cannot back them here at the prices. I think AaB are a better side, they are top 3 in the league in my opinion, while it is no coincidence that AGF are placed in the bottom half. AaB will probably arrive with the strongest line-up available, which should be a difficult task for AGF. Therefore, I think that the home win should be value at the price.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.10 at Bet365

Hobro-OB

Saturday 19/3 16.00

Hobro are going down. My model gives them 98% chance of relegation and I actually think that it is too nice. Hobro have played poorly in 2016. They have lacked cohesion, which have led to the defence looking very vulnerable. They have lost 0-1, 0-6 and 0-3 in the matches in 2016, but there is some glimmer of hope offensively, as offensive ace Antipas finally returned from injury at the end of the last match. He gave Hobro’s attack some power and with him on the pitch, the first goal should be closer. Striker George left the last match with an injury and could be out here. In the central defence, Hobro will have to do without captain Justesen who is banned. Justesen is very influential, but he has been playing rather poorly of late, so it might not be the biggest loss. OB have had a brilliant start to 2016 with two wins and one draw. I actually think they have been rather lucky with these results, but you cannot dismiss that they have some offensive firepower with the likes of Festersen, Jacobsen and Falk. This will be very difficult to contain for Hobro. Defensively, OB are known as a vulnerable team and they could face concerns if the fast Antipas is playing.

I don’t regard OB as a top team in the Danish league, why the price for away win is low, even though Hobro are on an abysmal run. I like over here the most. Both Hobro and OB have played more overs than unders this season, and since both defences give away a lot, I think the price for over 2.5 goals might be worth a small shot.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.90 at Bet365

SønderjyskE-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 20/3 12.00

SønderjyskE are in a great (and unexpected) position in the top. They have been very good at defeating the opponents from the lower half of the table, but they tend to struggle against the best teams. SønderjyskE are a very strong team physically and they rely on teamwork and direct counter-attacking. They will be without the important defensive midfielder Drachmann who is banned. FC Midtjylland have been rather poor so far in 2015. They won 3-0 against Hobro last weekend without impressing – they were limited to only six shots in the penalty box in the easiest game of the season. They have had a good number of injuries, and this means that they have lacked consistency and some quality. On paper, they have a very expensive team and should be stronger than SønderjyskE, but they are suffering from the lack of consistency and low confidence. Right back Rømer is still banned, while central midfielder Olsson returns from ban.

Yes, SønderjyskE often have issues against the best teams in the league, and yes, they often struggle at home. However, FC Midtjylland does really not impress me at the moment, which makes me believe that this match could end up being rather even. Therefore, I would chose the home side here. I also like the over here – FC Midtjylland were an under-team during the first half of the season, but they are not as strong defensively in 2016.

Ideas: 1 (AH +0) – 2.18 at Unibet

Over 2.25 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

Randers-Viborg

Sunday 20/3 14.00

Randers are experiencing a cruel period at the moment. They lost two key midfielders, Keller (captain) and Borring, due to internal issues (see preview from last week). They lost last weekend in a fairly even match against Brøndby and they lost in midweek in the cup against FC Copenhagen after a great effort. The cup elimination leaves their season without importance as top 3 is very difficult to reach. The cup match also lasted 120 minutes, so some players could be a bit fatigued here (also mentally after being knocked out due to a questionable decision by the referee). Left back Marxen is banned, but Randers have a decent cover in Fischer. Striker Ishak was not available in midweek due to a minor injury, but could be back here. Viborg have had a strong start to 2016. They have proven that they are to be taken seriously and have played two dominant matches against FC Nordsjælland and Hobro before settling for a draw in a more even match against SønderjyskE. Viborg are a very strong team defensively. They don’t give away many chances. Offensively, they also have some aces in Deble and Akharraz. However, they will have to do without the strong winger Kamper who is banned.

Viborg won the last head-to-head match in Randers with 1-0 in a match they dominated. Now they arrive in Randers again, in a situation of stability and with confidence. Their opponent, Randers, have lost three matches in a row, received a lot of negative attention in the media and just got knocked out of the cup, their last possible source of success. I am on Viborg here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 2.025 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 20/3 16.00

FC Nordsjælland could be a team to look out for in the future. They play with many young players and if they can keep the unit together, who knows if it might grow to a success in the coming seasons. Currently, I think there is some way to go. As seen by the goals conceded against OB in the last match, they are vulnerable to personal mistakes, which happens when young and inexperienced players are used. For this match, they will benefit from the return of central defender Maxsø and winger John from bans, which should strengthen both ends. However, it is still concerning that FC Nordsjælland don’t have a true striker – this will make it difficult for them to find the net. FC Copenhagen are cruising to the championship title. They have been very impressive here in 2016, although the 120 minute long midweek cup match against Randers showed some signs of a lack of focus. However, you cannot argue that FC Copenhagen are the best team in Denmark at the moment, and they will go into every game as clear favourite. For this match, FC Copenhagen have some squad issues. Central defender Zanka is still banned, but FC Copenhagen have decent cover. However, the situation is worse in attack, where the in-form striker Santander is injured, while his normal replacement Cornelius is banned. FC Copenhagen still have Nicolai Jørgensen on top, who I believe is the best player in the league, but alongside him, they will probably be forced to use a winger. This is not ideal, but FC Copenhagen have such a strong bench.

I don’t regard this FC Nordsjælland side highly and I think they should lose here, if only FC Copenhagen arrive with the right attitude. The offensive problems for FC Copenhagen will leave them less frightening, but I expect them to take a 1 or 2-0 win here.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.80 at Betfair Sportsbook

Brøndby-Esbjerg

Sunday 20/3 18.00

Brøndby changed coach last weekend and started with a victory. Not an impressive one, but it was a victory and I could spark some confidence. Brøndby have been poor in 2016 and not exactly impressed offensively. Defensively, they have suffered from injuries for vital players, but two of them, central defender Agger and defensive midfielder Austin, are both called up here after missing some matches. If they are fit to play, it is a clear upgrade to the defensive part of Brøndby’s team, and with more stability at the back, they should also be able to produce more offensively. Esbjerg have been all in on being stronger defensively, and they really have looked a lot better defensively in 2016. However, I believe they have been lucky in their last two wins. They were not better than Randers and they were surely worse than AGF, but they were efficient in both matches. Esbjerg will have to do without striker van Buren who is injured, but Esbjerg have some decent front runners in Rise and Schwartz. Both are excellent finishers, but not fast players, why Esbjerg will have to get some possession to really get the full advantage of their qualities.

Brøndby have not won in the last four matches against Esbjerg. This is surely a discomforting stat, but with the return of Austin and Agger, they should be significantly stronger than in the past matches. On the other hand, I don’t believe Esbjerg can continue with their lucky hand. I think this will be a home win as Brøndby have a better side and a strong home support, although the price is not enough to a recommendation.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 2.18 at Unibet