Week 21 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-AGF

Friday 11/3 18.00

Esbjerg got a vital win in the relegation race last weekend. With the win against Randers, Esbjerg will feel confident and safe going into this match. Esbjerg have looked way stronger in 2016 than in 2015. Defensively, the winter break has really helped (also changed almost the entire backline). Furthermore, the return of midfielder Jeppe Andersen from long-term injury has added quality on the midfield. Esbjerg have also added quality on top with the signing of striker Ronnie Schwartz, who is a very talented finisher. AGF have had a really nice start to the year under new head coach Glen Riddersholm. They are playing with confidence and they have really improved their level. Last weekend they had to settle with one point against FC Copenhagen despite playing eleven against ten for 75 minutes, but Riddersholm had not made a selection to dominate a match, but instead to defend, and therefore AGF were not using the superiority very well. AGF have some midfield issues for this match. All three starters in the central midfield (Jønsson and Olsen (injuries) and Pedersen (ban) could be out as well as the favourite replacement (Lange (injury)). This is problematic and AGF will probably have to move winger Bjarnason (returning from ban) to central midfield, while creative midfielder Aabech and a youngster is set to form the rest of the central midfield. Offensively, AGF will hope that striker Morten Duncan is superior to the not very physical Esbjerg central defence. Central defender Elez also returns from ban here.

Esbjerg are brimming with confidence and they are not expected to have any absences here. Fine weather is expected so they could also expect fine support from the stands. AGF are also playing well at the moment and I think they have a stronger team. However, the absences in the midfield combined with being the away side make Esbjerg my favourite. Although, I have to admit that Duncan on a good day can really hurt the Esbjerg defence.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) – 1.925 at Bet365

Viborg-SønderjyskE

Saturday 12/3 16.00

Viborg have got off to a strong start with four points in two games. It has been quite impressive, but in they have also faced pretty poor competition. Viborg are a team with strong defensive organisation and they play with lots a physique and a big work rate is always guaranteed. Furthermore, they have some players with offensive skills in Akharraz and Deble, which seems to be a strong combination. Midfielder Lerager returns from a ban to strengthen the central midfield. SønderjyskE are very similar to Viborg. It is also a hard working team and they are great a winning matches against teams of similar quality due to their commitment to the counter-attacking strategy. This strategy is also excellent for away games, where SønderjyskE tend to earn more points than at home. SønderjyskE showed promising things last weekend where they deservedly beat Brøndby 3-1. SønderjyskE are without important injuries.

SønderjyskE are very strong against teams from the middle or lower part of the table. This season, SønderjyskE have only lost against FC Copenhagen, AaB, FC Midtjylland, Brøndby and Randers – all the top teams. The last match versus Viborg ended in a 2-1 win to SønderjyskE. Viborg are in good shape and deserve credit. However, I cannot make them as big favourites as the bookies currently do – just considering how strong SønderjyskE are against teams of similar calibre.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.39 at Cashpoint

OB-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 13/3 13.00

OB took an impressive win against AaB last weekend. They managed to get a clean sheet against one of the strongest attacks in the league. The performance was pretty uncharacteristic for OB as they were doing good at the back but not producing much offensively. Usually, it has been the other way around. OB will benefit from the return of Skulason and Greve from bans. Both could go into the starting line-up, but might also get a spot on the bench due to the strong effort of the others last weekend. This match will be entirely different for OB. At home against a lower ranked team, they need to dominate the match, which could leave their backline vulnerable once more. However, the offensive quality of Falk, Jacobsen and Festersen should be able to create something against a young FC Nordsjælland defence. FC Nordsjælland took an impressive win against FC Midtjylland on Monday (2-1). Yes, they capitalised from an early red card to FC Midtjylland, but they played a high quality passing game, which reminded of better days in the past. FC Nordsjælland have to deal with two bans here, as central defender Maxsø is banned, while the same is the case for speedy winger John. Mikkelsen who was sick last weekend could replace John. The defence is set to be very young with Skovgaard  (18 years old) starting besides Gregor (22 years old) in the centre. Offensively, FC Nordsjælland lack a true striker, but have speedy players in Mor and Moberg-Karlsson who can break through the opposition’s defence.

OB are set to dominate this match, while FC Nordsjælland will probably lurk on counter-attacks. As I see both defences quite vulnerable combined with talented offensive players, a match with several goals seem probable. Favourite bet is over, but I would also expect OB to come away with three points here as I overall see them as a stronger team and FC Nordsjælland tend to perform poorly in away games.

Ideas: Over 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Bet365

1 (AH -0.25) – 1.85 at Bet365

Brøndby-Randers

Sunday 13/3 16.00

This match has been surrounded by quite some stories. It started earlier this week, when it was discovered that Brøndby’s chairman of the board (and sugardaddy) had been criticizing the head coach using his son’s user at a Brøndby fan forum. This led to the resignation of head coach Thomas Frank who actually had done quite well in his time at Brøndby. He will now be replaced by former club legend Auri Skarbalius as a solution until the season ends. Skarbalius has coached Brøndby in the past without success and they were even close to relegation in his final season. Furthermore, it is well-known that several of the players have a bad relationship with Skarbalius, while the opposite was the case with Frank who was very close to his players. This led me to make a #Twitbets on Randers to win. However, later this week, chaos started in Randers. It was discovered that the team captain Christian Keller had started a romance with quality winger Jonas Borring’s wife. The frustration of Borring has led him to take a break from football, while Keller has been stripped the captaincy. There have also been stories about other players not satisfied with Keller’s behaviour. So this match is pretty much a match between two clubs in the state of chaos.

I don’t think this match will come down to footballing qualities, but more is a matter of who is capable to be most focussed on the match. Therefore it could really go either way here. I think, we are in a good position with our #Twitbets and I would even suggest trading out to secure a profit due to what has happened in Randers since.

#Twitbets: 2 – 3.50 at PartyBets

FC Copenhagen-AaB

Sunday 13/3 18.00

If FC Copenhagen win this I don’t think anyone can catch them. Therefore, it is a vital match for both teams in the title race. FC Copenhagen have looked solid, especially at the back, here in 2016. They face a test as central defender Zanka is banned and he is the defensive leader of FC Copenhagen. However, they have an experienced alternative in Antonsson, so it should not pose a huge problem. FC Copenhagen have a team of quality players all over and I expect it to be only a matter of time before the attack starts creating more. AaB have not come out to 2016 in the most impressive way. They lost 0-1 at home to OB last weekend, which was a huge disappointment. However, it is worth noticing that captain Würtz was out in that match, and there is a huge difference between how AaB perform with and without him. He is back here and it should really improve AaB’s game. AaB have a really potent offence on the good days, but they are likely to be pushed back, which is problematic since their defence is nothing spectacular.

FC Copenhagen are at home and looking solid. I think they deserve to be favourites in the size that the bookies are suggesting here. I think this will be too big a test for AaB who is not running on momentum like they were at the end of 2015. FC Copenhagen have won the last eight home league games against AaB and I don’t expect it to change here. Given the price only an idea pick though.

Idea: 1 – 1.80 at Tipico

FC Midtjylland-Hobro

Monday 14/3 19.00

FC Midtjylland have had a poor start to 2016. I don’t think you should underrate the loss of central defender Sviatchenko and striker Duncan. They have been crucial for the quality in both ends. FC Midtjylland have looked significantly weaker at the back with new signing Bodurov and a lot less dangerous offensively, where they have failed to put real pressure on an opponent this year. Head coach Thorup has showed a lot of faith in tall striker Onuachu, and although he can make some extraordinary things a times, I think he generally lowers the quality of FC Midtjylland’s attack. Instead he should consider using Martin Pusic who was the top goalscorer last season, but has not been in top form during this season. But to me, he seems like a more constant threat and way stronger tactically. FC Midtjylland have some suspension issues as two starters are out: right back Andre Rømer and central midfielder Kristoffer Olsson. None of them are key players, so FC Midtjylland should be able to cope due to their impressive squad depth. Hobro got hammered 0-6 last weekend against the team who they hoped to catch in the relegation race. Now they sit 11 points below survival and without confidence – it looks like a massive task even though they have a very experienced head coach. I think Hobro have qualities, especially some of the offensive players, but they are not playing as a team. And frankly, if they are not playing as a team, their defensive quality is just too poor to get anything in this league. However, this is kind of a free match for Hobro as no one expect them to get points here, so they should be able to play more freely.

Two teams that have disappointed big time in 2016. Normally, it should be a walk in the park for FC Midtjylland to beat Hobro at home, but the current form and confidence could make it a tougher task. However, given Hobro’s abysmal run, it is hard to see how the home team should fail here. Not worth the price though. No bet for me, but you could consider it on an accumulator.

Idea: 1 -1.31 at Nordicbet