Stats review: Week 18 update

We start with the alternative Superliga tables before we go to our other stories of the week, which will be the equality of the league and a look on the strongest home/away sides.

Updated alternative tables:

We use the following measures:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:

TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:

SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

The table is sorted by SoTR, which is our favourite indicator for quality.

For detailed reviews and tables from previous weeks – click here.

Comments:

The SoTR metric is a nice measure for true quality of a team (read this if you want more explanation). Therefore we would like to call it a power ranking of the league.

FC Copenhagen are still number one on our ranking in spite of their poor match against FC Vestsjælland. Their SoTR and TSR above 60% are impressive though and they should be the prime contender to the championship title along with FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland are third on our ranking and the SoTR increased from last week after the crushing of AGF. FC Midtjylland do not look as strong as FC Copenhagen, but they have compensated by producing a higher defensive/offensive efficiency (measured by their PDO). This “over performance” in efficiency is not likely to continue and in that case FC Midtjylland’s first place is likely to get in jeopardy. The same goes for AaB. They won deservedly against Viborg (5-0), but they were highly efficient (scoring five goals on seven attempts on target). They are in 5th place on our power ranking (SoTR), but 2nd position on our luck ranking (PDO). The media tend to get carried away by their recent performance; we believe that AaB should be satisfied if they finish with a bronze medal.

Esbjerg and Brøndby are two underachievers. Based on their ability to dominate the matches, Esbjerg and Brøndby should both be near the front. But poor saving for Esbjerg and poor finishing from Brøndby are the main reasons for the lack of success. Based on our review of Esbjerg keeper, Rønnow, last week, it could seem like Esbjerg are fundamentally underperforming because of his obvious weakness on set pieces. Therefore you should not expect Esbjerg’s PDO to reach 1000 (average) unless Esbjerg make a change in the winter break. For Brøndby, the poor finishing could to some degree be blamed on striker Quincy Antipas, who has been very inefficient. The question is whether Antipas has been unlucky or just a bad finisher? Our guess is a combination, and then we should expect Brøndby to have more “luck” in the spring.

FC Nordsjælland are a team on the rise. If their PDO increases they should finish in top 6. OB, FC Vestsjælland and Randers should face a mediocre season, but if they continue their effort and the luck effect is fairly distributed, relegation should not be a subject.

The main relegation candidates seem to be AGF, SønderjyskE and Viborg.  AGF have been very volatile this autumn, but mostly bad. After finishing the last two matches with a goal score of 1-7, they also moved towards the bottom in our table. Measured on ability to dominate matches in terms of chances they should go down. AGF have however already made deals for some quality players, wherefore their true quality might change over the winter. SønderjyskE have passed AGF on our power ranking. They have looked better in the last three matches of the season and their PDO (luck) has increased as well. If the PDO continues its rise towards 1000, SønderjyskE should have a considerable chance for survival. Viborg are by far the weakest team in our opinion. We have claimed this for some time and results are starting to prove it. In five games, they have only gained one point. The relegation line is getting close. Only their ridiculous PDO have kept them in the middle of the table. This is mainly due to the efficiency of top scorer Thomas Dalgaard, but we have seen the luck move in a different direction lately (although mostly affecting the saving percentage). Over the last three matches we have seen the difference in PDO between Viborg and SønderjyskE narrowing with 72 points. This just proves our claim that PDO is a (mostly) random luck indicator that moves towards 1000 over time.

Hypothesis 1: The Superliga 2013/2014 is more equal than usually

Admitted, we have had a poor autumn with our bets. Naturally you will start to look for explanations. One of our thoughts was that the league is more difficult to predict this year, since teams are getting more equal. We looked at the stats and got this:

 

So we summed up the last eight seasons at the winter break. Winter break normally occurs after 17 to 20 matches. The draw percentage has not been higher than this season. More than 30% is rarely seen (well, not in the previous seven years) and a partial explanation for our poor autumn, since we rarely predict draws.

No matter if we look at the difference between first and last or third and tenth, it is also smaller than in the previous years. This is also a solid argument for the increase in spectators this autumn: every team has plenty to fight for.

The last measure is the number of teams within five points of the relegation line (including the two underneath). This year 8 (!) teams out of 12 are in genuine danger of relegation. This is also a new record in recent years.

Conlusion: On all measures, this year is the most equal in our sample of eight years. This is naturally splendid for entertainment value, but also signalling that betting on the Superliga this year is not just business as usual.

Hypothesis 2: Are AaB the best home team and FC Midtjylland the best away team?

If you base it on points, then yes! AaB lead the home table, while FC Midtjylland lead the away table. But what if we look at the team’s ability to dominate home or away matches. Let us first look at home matches:

 

Based on our favourite metric, the Shots on Target Ratio (SoTR), Esbjerg are actually the most dominant home team. They tend to have almost 2/3 of all shots on target in their home matches. They only get 1.33 points per game, which is quite poor based on their dominance. AaB are actually only 4th based on this statistic (but still quite dominant in their home matches). What is interesting is that home teams not only have dominance in SoTR (52.72%) as expected, but also in PDO (1032). PDO were supposed to be a luck indicator, but this illustrates that their might be an efficiency effect of playing at home.

If we look at the away table:

 

A few things are remarkable in this table. FC Copenhagen and Brøndby are relatively better away than at home, when it comes to SoTR. FC Copenhagen and Brøndby are the two teams with the strongest home support (based on the objective measure: number of spectators) so you should expect them to be relatively strong at home instead (some might argue that they have the best away support as well). The table brings bad news for fans of SønderjyskE and OB since their teams are actually more dominant when playing away. We have also found the main source of Viborg’s weakness: they are by far the worst team when playing away.

Conclusion: Based on ability to dominate matches, which over time should be highly correlated with winning percentage, AaB are not the best home team and FC Midtjylland not the best away team. We should instead expect Esbjerg and FC Copenhagen to advance in the respective tables (ceteris paribus).

Efficiency table

We round off with the efficiency table, where AaB advanced significantly at the expense of Viborg. It is also worth noticing that there are only two teams left in the good quadrant (upper right). It is AaB and FC Midtjylland, number 1 and 2 – the lucky/efficient ones. Number 10, 11 and 12 (FC Vestsjælland, Esbjerg and SønderjyskE) are left in the bad quadrant. This highlights the importance of efficiency/luck if you want to do well in the league. At least over this short time interval.