Randers-Esbjerg

Sunday 9/12 14.00

Randers (9th) are not exactly the most in-form team in the league. With only one win in the last eight matches, Randers are dangerously near the relegation zone. Their performances on the pitch have been very volatile, usually they play one good match followed by a poor. Last weekend they played a very poor match in FC Nordsjælland and were lucky to return to eastern Jutland with one point (1-1). FC Nordsjælland won the shooting statistic with 22-8, but it is not unusual for Randers to have problems at FC Nordsjælland (they have never won there). But if our perception of Randers’ performance pattern holds true, a good match should be in store by the home team. Randers will be without their central defender Mads Fenger along with winger Jonas Kamper. Both are important players and the likely replacements Chris Sørensen and Victor Lundberg are not of same quality. Randers will be in severe problems if left back Adama Tamboura is not fit for this match. He was absent last weekend due to a minor foot injury and if absent here too, midfielder Alexander Fischer will have to cover the position. Not good since left back is always a fiercely attacked position when playing against the Ankersen brothers of Esbjerg. Esbjerg (11th) made a great comeback against AaB last round. Despite being down 0-2 the match ended 2-2 and afterwards Esbjerg could even feel hard done by not winning the match. The shooting statistic said 23-7 and lack of efficiency has really been a huge problem in Esbjerg lately. Over the last five matches Esbjerg’s SoTR are the league’s second highest (61.22%) despite Esbjerg only gained 2 points in these matches.  However some offensive optimism must have grown after two goals in the last match and two goals last midweek against Standard Liege. Esbjerg are also close to their preferred eleven with only central midfielder Lekven injured. He is vital, no doubt about it, but Esbjerg have been without him for so many matches, that they must be able to cope with it by now. Central defender Kian Hansen is still suspended and this is a weakening of the defence. Randers are offering free entrance, so a good atmosphere should be expected for the last match of the year.

Based on statistics and recent performances we believe Esbjerg are the team with momentum. Both teams have some defensive issues and we notice that the last three league matches between the two have ended with three goals or more. We would at least give this a 50% chance of occurring again on Sunday and we therefore spot great value in an over bet. Although we fear Esbjerg’s Rønnow might be out to prove that he is not the worst shot stopper in the league as we claimed in our review. If we were to pick a winner we would go for Esbjerg with money back in case of a draw.

Tip of the Week: Over 2.5 goals – 2.12 Betfair

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.02 Unibet

 Remember that you can use our link to get a 350 DKK free bet (and maybe use it on this match).