AaB-Viborg

Monday 10/12 19.00

AaB (2nd) have had a fine autumn: in 2nd place and still alive in the cup was more than the northerners could dare hope for. They have done it with class and even though FC Copenhagen are about to pass them, they still have a great chance of finishing in a top 3 position. Quite remarkable for a club that due to financial difficulties had to sell their star, striker Helenius, to Aston Villa in the summer window. AaB have not lost in five matches in a row. Last weekend they were struggling a lot against Esbjerg (2-2), but they were without several important players. Midfielder Risgård, keeper Nicolai Larsen and defender Lasse Nielsen should all return for this match. Only left back Jakob Ahlmann is doubtful. Viborg (7th) are in a remarkable 7th position. A crazy efficiency is the only good argument for their success, since their ability to dominate matches in terms of creating scoring opportunities is the league’s worst. While Viborg’s scoring efficiency is still the league’s absolute best (38.89% - league average: 28.03%), their saving efficiency has moved towards a more average standard (74.56% - league average: 72.06%). And the result is that Viborg are on a cold streak with only one point in the last four matches. Viborg should have a full squad to choose from, and although both league top scorer Thomas Dalgaard and midfielder Aleksandar Stankov left the last match with smaller injuries, we expect them to play on Monday. The last time the two met, the match ended 3-1 to AaB. AaB dominated from start to finish and could have won even bigger (shooting stats: 23-8).

We have several times pointed out that Viborg is the luckiest team in the Superliga and that their success is likely to be short-lived. We have seen indications of this recently and against an AaB team with strong individuals like Jönsson and Kusk they should get into trouble (they did last time). We pick AaB to win by two or more. If AaB win with only one we get our money back.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.02 Bet365