Week 26 round-up

We suffered a small loss for the weekend, but our 2014 record is still very positive. Our Tip of the Week was successful and we hope to continue this trend in the future! A lot of bets will arrive in the tight Easter schedule so stay tuned.

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

SønderjyskE-FC Vestsjælland

Friday 11/4 18.30

SønderjyskE (12th) suffered the expected loss last weekend against FC Copenhagen (2-0). SønderjyskE delivered a reasonable effort, but the final winner was never in doubt. While last match was a match where a point would have been a bonus, the stakes are different for this match: points are a must. SønderjyskE simply need a win against a strong rival for the relegation spots. Offensively SønderjyskE have looked stronger in 2014 with Okotie and Bechmann, while goalkeeper Marin Skender has managed to register a very high saving rate. But SønderjyskE are still not a strong team. In fact, based on their SoTR, they have actually been the 2nd worst in 2014 in creating/avoiding chances. To make matters worse, SønderjyskE will be without strong central defender Pierre Kanstrup and possibly also the injured midfielders, Daniel Jensen and Johan Absalonsen. Particularly Absalonsen is important for SønderjyskE’s trademark, the counter-attacking. FC Vestsjælland (10th) have had offensive problems in 2014. In seven games they have only scored three goals. They are without three strikers, Ofere, Tshibamba and Thiago, and current choice Dennis Sørensen is currently not in killer-mode. Despite the offensive struggles, FC Vestsjælland have been skilled at closing down the opponents’ offences. In the last two matches they have managed to completely shut down the offences of Esbjerg and FC Nordsjælland (two times 0-0). The question is which approach FC Vestsjælland will have for this match? They have actually had problems against the league’s weaker team, mainly because they are vulnerable at the back when they try to create matches themselves. But FC Vestsjælland will probably be satisfied with a draw here, since they have a four-point edge on SønderjyskE. It is worth noticing that FC Vestsjælland have only lost three out of thirteen away matches, which underlines their quality in “parking the bus”.

A lot is at stake here. We have SønderjyskE as the favourite, but FC Vestsjælland are a difficult team to beat, especially if they decide on the defending the draw. By combining the draw and away win, Mermaidbet offers 1.85 for X2. That is a very valuable offer and our only interpretation is that the bookies rate the 4-0 win of SønderjyskE in the last H2H too high (a match where the scoreline was unfair – FCV mostly dominated and had 8 shots on target vs. SønderjyskE’s 5).

Tip of the week: X2 – 1.85 at Mermaidbet (51.35% on draw at 3.60 and 48.65% on 2 at 3.80)

FC Midtjylland-OB

Saturday 12/4 17.00

FC Midtjylland (2nd) dropped the first place after a thrilling defeat against AaB (2-3). With eight games left, FC Midtjylland have plenty of time to take the spot back, but the question is whether the team is strong enough. It was highly evident that the absence of central defender Erik Sviatchenko and defensive midfielder Izunna were vital. The important duo is out for the season, so FC Midtjylland will have to find a solution. To make matters worse, FC Midtjylland will be without (suspended) right back Kristian Bak Nielsen (captain) and winger Sylvester Igboun. Two important absences! Nielsen brings a lot of energy to the team, while Igboun was splendid against AaB. Afriyie, a trustworthy veteran, and Pione Sisto, a skilled but unstable youngster, will probably cover the positions. OB’s (7th) results are a random walk. They only get draws against weaker teams like Viborg and SønderjyskE, but they are also capable of beating a difficult team like Brøndby away. OB are improving though. The tremendous trio of Baskhim Kadrii, Rasmus Falk, and Emil Larsen are finally united with the return of Kadrii after a long-term injury. Kadrii got the last 15 minutes against Viborg and managed to get two good scoring possibilities. He will be a force, but question is whether coach Bech will dare putting him in the starting line-up here. We hope so! Defensively OB should be concerned. The central defence of Anders Møller Christensen and Kasper Larsen is not spectacular and only a high saving percentage of the OB goalkeepers have kept them alive in many matches. OB have not lost in the last four matches.

With a fully fit squad, FC Midtjylland should have been clear favourites for this match, but without four key players they will not win this match easily. In fact we believe that the most value is in the draw at Mermaidbet at tremendous odds 3.80. A BTTS (Both Teams To Score) also seems interesting when having the recent poor defensive displays of both teams in mind.

Recommendation: X – 3.80 at Mermaidbet

Idea: BTTS – 1.70 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: FCM's top goalscorer, Morten Duncan Rasmussen is injured and not playing. A weakening offensively, should add value to the draw bet.

Randers-Viborg

Sunday 13/4 14.00

Randers (8th) finally got that win last week, their first of 2014 (1-0 at AGF). They have played well with a lot of ball possession and shots but have lacked efficiency. Injuries can be the reason for the abysmal results recently but many starting players are about to return. Strikers Nicolai Brock-Madsen and Lasse Rise are set to return as well as central midfielder Elmar Bjarnason. Especially Bjarnason is vital in stabilizing the midfield. Star striker Ronnie Schwartz is set to be in the starting line up after having been a substitute the last two matches (scored the winner last weekend). Viborg (11th) fought their way to a draw after being two goals behind last weekend (2-2 vs. OB). Every point in the relegation race and Viborg’s attitude proved it. Regular midfielder Nicholas Gotfredsen is suspended, while winger Kevin Mensah who left the last match early turned out to be sick and he is set to return this week. Randers and Viborg have drawed in the two H2H’s of the season.

With important players returning from injury Randers might be able to improve their 2014 performance. Randers look like the better team, but Viborg have improved over the past few matches. Both teams have a tendency to draw a lot of matches and this could be the case here as well. The draw offer at 3.60 is tempting, but we use the good odds of Mermaidbet to propose a Home No Bet (money back in case of home win).

Idea: X (Home No Bet) – 1.82 at Mermaidbet (51.22% on 1 – 48.78% on X)

FC Copenhagen-AGF

Sunday 13/4 17.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) finally got back to winning ways after three matches without a win. The 2-0 win against SønderjyskE was nothing spectacular. FC Copenhagen scored two quick goals and brought the three points home on autopilot. What was important was the scorers, Bolaños and Braaten. Two gifted offensive players that have had a rather poor season and a signal of better times could have crucial importance for a FC Copenhagen without two key offensive midfielders for the rest of the season, Toutouh and Jørgensen. Team top goal scorer Igor Vetokele was also absent for the last match and question is whether he will return this weekend. He has not been sharp in 2014 (only one goal scored) so probably not a game changing absence. AGF (9th) are probably the worst team of 2014. They have been the poorest team on the pitch in every one of their seven 2014 games and despite this still managed to earn seven points. When luck stops AGF could be destined for relegation, because the team is simply not good enough currently. Especially in the front line is AGF anything but Superliga standard. Last weekend they attempted a new strategy by fielding the young striker Markus Solberg. Solberg only had one chance and he celebrated it by firing the ball outside the stadium. Solberg might be a man for the future, but not your alone frontrunner in a rough relegation race. AGF only have one player showing true quality at the moment and that is midfielder Danny Olsen. He possesses some calmness on the ball that the rest of the team is lacking. Unfortunately, Olsen broke his toe in the last match, and even though the expectation is for him to play, he will not be at 100%.

Two teams not exactly on top offensively could sound like a logical under 2.5 goals bet. Eight of the last ten H2H’s have ended below. FC Copenhagen have been below in six out of seven 2014 games. AGF have been below in the last two matches after having stabilized the defence. Under 2.5 goals is indeed our idea for this match, although it is reasonable to fear that AGF will self-destruct. Defence is shaky and the goalkeeper is poor.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Unibet

AaB-Brøndby

Sunday 13/4 19.00

AaB (1st) are the new guys to beat after they took an impressive win against FC Midtjylland (3-2). AaB are really excelling in the offensive part of the game, where players like Thomsen, Kusk, Jönsson and even the Lithuanian surprise Spalvis (scored twice last weekend) have been a joy to behold. AaB have a brilliant passing game mainly orchestrated by the wingers while the two central midfielders Würtz and Risgård keep the structure. Würtz is suspended for this match and veteran Augustinussen will probably cover. It is a loss since Würtz’s performances has been flawless in 2014, so the absence might force AaB to use more energy on the defensive assignments. Compared to last weekend, AaB will have left back Ahlmann back from suspension. Right back Dalsgaard is still injured, but alternative Patrick Kristensen seems to be improving. Brøndby (4th) took a massive win against Esbjerg (1-0). Massive in the sense that Brøndby will now compete for medals and at the same time eliminated one of the main rivals in that competition. Brøndby were not outstanding though. They had a lot of good counters, but they were practically outplayed in several periods of the game. Fortunately goalkeeper Hradecky had another splendid day and even saved a penalty. Hradecky leads the league in total and 2014 with saving percentages of 79% and 88% respectively. He is undoubtedly the best keeper in the league although the extreme percentage for 2014 will be difficult to maintain. Brøndby might welcome back strong central defender, Khalid Boulahrouz, and his return could be important since alternative Dario Dumic is nothing more than average.

There is a big difference between AaB when playing home and away. Home they are still unbeaten, but also play some tight matches mainly because the opponents are very cautious (AaB home: 8 out of 13 under 2.5 goals – away all 12 over 2.5 goals!). Cautious is Brøndby’s usual attitude in away matches. Their risk minimizing style combined with the strong performances of Hradecky also result in a lot of low scorelines (9 out of 13 under 2.5 goals – 8 in a row!). We believe the bookies are blinded by AaB’s magnificent offensive performances in 2014 with 15 goals in 7 matches (that are actually driven by an insane and unsustainable scoring efficiency of 44% - twice the league average in 2014).

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.00 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Monday 14/4 19.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) were not able to get through the wall that was built by FC Vestsjælland last week and now Esbjerg (5th) will be visiting. A tough competitor for a team that have had troubles finding the net recently. Only three goals in the last five matches are what FC Nordsjælland have to show for it. Only one team have scored fewer goals in the whole season than FC Nordsjælland (FC Vestsjælland - 23). The need for a goal getter is evident. Striker Morten Nordstrand has that edge to be a 15-goals-per-season-player but injuries have been tough on the former international. It has also been easy to close down winger Joshua John and now his opponent is Peter Ankersen who possesses the pace to challenge John in the short sprints. Fortunately for FC Nordsjælland Esbjerg have been hit by some injuries. Winger Jakob Ankersen is out and striker Martin Pusic is doubtful. Pusic is a missed man for the Esbjerg side. Ever since he left with an injury against FC Vestsjælland, Esbjerg have yet to score and they have been lacking that poise up front that have made them near unbeatable in the last couple of matches. Winger Emil Lyng is expected to resume training during the week whereas winger Mohammed Fellah is close to full training. Left back Jonas Knudsen is suspended but Davidson Drobo-Ampem is an adequate replacement.

The match is quite even. Both teams have troubles scoring at the moment and it does not seem to get better in the near future. The defences are doing fine right now. FC Nordsjælland have conceded three in the last five matches and Esbjerg only two. So it is a match between two weakened offences and two strong defences, which may have the outcome that it will be a low scoring match.

Idea: X - 3.50 at Mermaidbet

Under 2.5 goals – 1.85 at Bet365

UPDATE: Jakob Ankersen might be in the starting line-up although his fitness condition is not tip top. Pusic not in the squad for Esbjerg. Nevertheless offensive midfielder Fellah might return to give Esbjerg some more quality offensively. In total our low-scoring draw prediction seems reasonable.

Week 25 round-up

A great weekend for us. 6 out of 9 bets were successful and we registered a surplus of 4.07 units. Unfortunately, our main bets, our recommendations, were only 1 out of 3. Esbjerg were a bit unlucky against Brøndby, while we must admit that we probably underestimated AaB. Our ideas our now in a total surplus. That is really nice, but it is our main bets that we want to have this status. Hopefully they will get there soon. Follow us for more..

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.