28. okt. 2015

Week 14 Superliga previews


Esbjerg-FC Nordsjælland

Esbjerg have been bad this season. They lack confidence and clear direction. They hope to get that with the new head coach Jonas Dal who is known for his positive attitude and focus on team spirit. Esbjerg are typically strong at home, where they play with high intensity, but they have not had much success this season though with only one home win. However, it is worth noticing that Esbjerg have mainly faced the top teams at home. Esbjerg will look to change formation to a more defensive minded 4-2-3-1. They will be without offensive midfielder Fellah who is injured, but apart from this they should be able to field a strong team (at least based on salary). Goalkeeper Dubravka is doubtful and the reserve Jonas Jensen is rather unproven at the highest level. FC Nordsjælland are a classical Superliga up-and-down team. Last weekend they won 3-0 against in-form AaB. Before that they lost 1-8 in the previous two games. FC Nordsjælland are known as a team for which home advantage mean a lot. They are the only team with an artificial pitch and it seems to suit their style well. Away, the case is different – and they often seem less motivated than the home team. In any case, they often find it very difficult in away games against the offensively strong teams. For this match, they will be without captain and left back Patrick Mtiliga who is banned. They lack a good replacement, so the left back will be a weak spot. A strong spot is the striker position, where Bruninho, the league top goalscorer, will see if he can overcame the rather vulnerable Esbjerg defence.

At first glance, this looks like a clear over game. However, the price has already dropped somewhat and the news that Esbjerg are moving towards a more compact formation is not bright news for that bet. Instead, I think a home win could be interesting despite of Esbjerg’s poor start to the season. Nevertheless, it is rare that the price for a Esbjerg home win is around 2.40 against a rather poor away team as FC Nordsjælland (1.90 the last time they met in Esbjerg). Nevertheless, I think the price might increase even further so only an idea pick.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.025 at Bet365


FC Midtjylland-Viborg
FC Midtjylland are not in perfect condition at the moment. They have lost the last three matches (Europa League, Superliga and cup), but difficult matches and a long list of injuries can explain much. The situation is looking better as FC Midtjylland are welcoming regulars winger Pione Sisto, midfielder Kristoffer Olsson, central defender Erik Sviatchenko and striker Martin Pusic back in the squad. However, it is worth noticing that FC Midtjylland have a tendency of calling up players that won’t be playing. Nevertheless, they are not calling up these four players without some of them being capable of playing. One concern is the ban for central midfielder Tim Sparv. He has been a big asset for FC Midtjylland this season and just got the price as Finland’s player of the year. Viborg will love to get something here. FC Midtjylland are their arch rival, but it will be difficult. The injury situation is pretty good and apart from central defender Veldmate they should be able to field the strongest line-up here. Viborg have lacked some efficiency in front of goal, but with four goals, the strikers could have earned some confidence.

FC Midtjylland have something to prove here, and since the team is looking to be significantly improved they should have good chances of a good performance. They should field a team that is way stronger than Viborg and especially the back line should be strong enough to keep the Viborg strikers at bay. Viborg have played a solid season, but I think they will face too tough a challenge here. The price for FC Midtjylland home win in same match earlier the season closed around 1.45. Although FC Midtjylland have some injuries, it is not a big problem if the called up players are fit.


Idea: 1 – 1.62 at Sportingbet

AaB-Hobro
AaB suffered a disappointing loss at FC Nordsjælland 3-0. AaB always find it difficult to play at the artificial pitch in Farum and they were also without their captain Rasmus Würtz. He is a talismanic player, so it is vital that he is set to return from a ban here. AaB are an attacking minded team and it is no coincidence that they are the most scoring team in the league; they are also the team with most shots on target. They are very strong at home, where they have recently won the last two games with 3 and 5 goals. They have some injury concerns in the back line (Dalsgaard and Ahlmann), but they have decent players to cover. Hobro won impressively 3-1 against AGF in the last round, despite a lot of drama off the pitch (change of head coach). Despite of the success on the pitch, it also had its cost. Hobro lost several players to injury, including the two offensive profiles Park and George. Furthermore, talismanic defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg (last season: 0.57 points per game without him (7 matches) and 1.5 points per game with him) misses the match with a ban, while only dangerous offensive player left in the squad, Pål Alexander Kirkevold, is an injury doubt. In total, it is a Hobro team heavily hit by injuries and it is difficult to see how they will maintain possession against AaB.

The last time Hobro visited AaB they lost 5-0. AaB would love to beat regional little brother Hobro and this match is really suited for a big win. Without their offensive profiles, Hobro will struggle to threaten AaB’s defence, while allowing AaB’s strong offense to have more time on the ball. This really looks like a potential big win for the home side. I personally go for a two-goal win, but also good value if you are more conservative.


Tip of the Week: AaB 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.48 at Unibet


FC Copenhagen-Randers
FC Copenhagen are in good form and have won 6 out of the last 7 league games. They are the current league favorites and with good reason as they are very solid at the back and have some dangerous strikers. The squad situation is fairly good at the moment, which also might be a potential explanation for the current good run. FC Copenhagen will try to dominate the match from the start to the finish here. It is a small minus that they were forced to play 120 minutes in the cup on Thursday, but they have not had a tight schedule this autumn, so the players should not be too fatigued. Randers are kind of a FC Copenhagen-light. They are also very well organised in a 4-4-2 focused on defensive stability and with some quality goal getters up front. Unfortunately, Randers top goalscorer Viktor Lundberg missed the last match due to injury, and it is uncertain whether he will return. The other striker, Mikael Ishak, is normally regarded as Randers’ best offensive weapon, but he is lacking confidence at the moment and has had a poor season.

What to bet on here? FC Copenhagen won a similar match in the middle of September with the score 3-0, but I recall this match as very even. FC Copenhagen were very efficient, and normally the matches between FC Copenhagen and Randers are fairly even. FC Copenhagen are in a phase, where they take some slim wins and a 1-0/2-1 win look very likely. Therefore, I pick the one goal win as an idea here.


Idea: X (0-1) – 3.55 at Unibet

OB-Brøndby
OB are fairly up and down. It really depends on the mood of offensive players like Rasmus Falk and Rasmus Festersen. If they really are on top, OB can breakthrough any defence. However, OB’s attack is often limited by the inability of their defence. They spend a lot of energy trying to protect a back line that is among the weakest in the league. Had it not been for some fine saves by Koval (who actually looked pretty insecure in present matches), they would have lost in Randers. OB will have to cope without strong central midfielder Makrini who is banned. He is a good defensive anchorman with nice vision and it could hurt OB’s balance to be without him. OB are forced to use a youngster or a player out of position instead. Brøndby are experiencing an upward sloping form curve. After a start where they underperformed, they have since rebounded and won a lot of matches. The injury situation is good at the moment and they have added some quality to the midfield with the return of Kahlenberg. Defensively, Daniel Agger returns from a ban to strengthen the back line. I see this Brøndby team as fairly strong, although their attack needs a bit more venom.

This is a difficult match to predict. Brøndby will surely dominate possession, while OB will lurk on counter-attacks, which they really like. However, the absence of Makrini combined with the good state and form of Brøndby really favours the away team.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.975 at Bet365


AGF-SønderjyskE
AGF beat FC Nordsjælland 3-0 one week, then loses 3-1 at Hobro the next weekend. In other words, you don’t know what you get. However, the match against Hobro was a low point as AGF were terrible in everything they did. The back line really showed its insufficiencies against a physical and fast striker – fortunately, they won’t face a similar striker here. AGF will benefit from midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen returning from a ban, which should make them move Jens Jönsson back in defence. That should at least improve the defensive strength of the team. Offensively, it is not all too impressive. Only on the bright days of Kim Aabech do AGF look like a quality team, and AGF especially suffer from the lack of an in-form striker. SønderjyskE lost 1-2 against FC Copenhagen last weekend. Classical result as SønderjyskE always tends to struggle against the very best teams. Against the rest of the league, SønderjyskE are so committed and good at implementing their strategy that they earn a lot of points despite of having a rather low budget. They will be without the strong defensive midfielder Janus Drachmann here, but Nicolaj Madsen returns from a ban to replace him. SønderjyskE will try to win this match by deploying a counter-attacking strategy, which worked the last time they visited Aarhus (won 2-1 in an even match).

Another match that is difficult to predict, mainly due to the instable nature of AGF. In the last match-up the market closed around 2.30 for AGF win. Now the price is 0.20 higher. What has happened since? AGF have a fit squad and found a new weapon in winger Alexander Cavric, while SønderjyskE have some serious absences (Kløve and Drachmann). In that light, it is a good price to get the home win at 2.50. However, it is only an idea pick as SønderjyskE have a history of good performance in matches like this.


Idea: 1 – 2.50 at Tipico

26. okt. 2015

Week 13 round-up

A very good round. Tip of the Week heading home at 2.05 and also good success with ideas and #Twitbets. Sadly, we missed a goal in OB-Randers (despite 1-1 at half time) to make it a full house for recommendations too. It is still way below my expectations for the season, but hopefully this round marks a change of fortune.


21. okt. 2015

Week 13 Superliga previews

Hobro-AGF
A lot of chaos in Hobro right now. Their successful head coach from last season, Jonas Dal, just left the job to go to Esbjerg after a lot of media attention. New head coach is Lars Justesen, brother to the captain Mads Justesen. Hobro are in a difficult position. They are last - 6 points after the nearest team. Given the off the pitch chaos, morale is unlikely to be high. Hobro are still suffering from a number of injuries, but should be able to field a decent team, where especially the attack is interesting (with Park and Kirkevold). AGF are in a much better position after winning against 3-0 FC Nordsjælland last weekend. Before this, AGF have been performing quite poorly, so it was quite surprising to see them demolish FC Nordsjælland. A lot of AGF's offensive play went through winger Cavric, who looks like a solid signing. The clean sheet in the last game could signal better times ahead. AGF have a very low saving percentage of 62.5 % (league average 69.7%) and this is unlikely to remain at such a low level.

AGF will have good support on the stands, so I don't expect the home advantage to be so big here. At the same time I have my concerns regarding the focus of the Hobro players. Therefore I prefer the away win here, although I don't regard this as a big value pick.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.5) - 2.075 at Bet365

Viborg-Esbjerg
Viborg must wonder what they have to do to find the net. They had 23 shots in the last match against Brøndby (lost 0-2) without scoring. This is the big issue for Viborg! They have only scored 6 times in 12 games. However, two of these goals were against Esbjerg in the last match. Viborg are based on my stats, the most unlucky team in the league: they should score more and concede less given the amount of chances they create. Defensively they are fairly solid - only top runners FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen have conceded less shots on target this season. Offensively, they lack a striker with confidence. They have a great player in Serge Deble but he is still without a goal this season after scoring 15 times last season in the 1st Division. It should only be a matter of time before he scores and he finds some confidence. Defender Jeroen Veldmate is still out with an injury. Esbjerg are the other part of the big story of the week: Jonas Dal moving from Hobro to Esbjerg to become their head coach. However, with Jonas Dal having his first day at the job Thursday and the match being on Saturday he is unlikely to make any changes. Esbjerg could do with some changes though. They are poor at the back (the team that has conceded most shots so far). They are way to easy to create chances against. For this match, their defense is under further pressure since Michael Almebäck and Ryan Johnson Laursen are both expected to miss the match with injuries. Offensively, they have some quality players, but the impression is that these players are very selfish, they would rather take the shot than finding a more open teammate.

Viborg won the last match between the two teams and it could easily end the same way here. I have Viborg as slim favorites here. I think they have the quality to match Esbjerg, and I am concerned with Esbjerg's attitude: they often seem too relaxed against "weaker" opponents. Therefore, I see some value in a home win here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) - 2.00 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-AaB
After a period of playing some fine football, FC Norsjælland have fallen completely apart in the last two matches and lost 1-8 in total. They have lacked the attacking spark with key striker Bruninho having a few weak performances, but the defence have also been quite vulnerable. It is positive that central defender Pascal Gregor returns from ban. The question is what FC Nordsjælland team we will see here. There is quite a difference between their best and worst edition. But typically they are significantly stronger at home on artificial pitch. AaB have played some exciting offensive football lately. This has led to striker Spalvis earning the league top goalscorer title with 9 goals in only 9 matches! AaB have an exciting attacking play and the defence is also decent. However, an important driver for success for AaB is that the central midfield consists of Würtz and Risgaard. Unfortunately, Würtz is banned for this match, and the alternatives are nowhere near as good. Offensive midfielder Enevoldsen returns from ban, while right back Dalsgaard should return from sickness.

If you are just valuing form, this should be a clear away win. But ignoring this, seeing a traditionally strong home team without injuries being underdog against a so-so away team without their captain who is vital for their balance, offer a potentially good bet. I backed FC Nordsjælland after a likewise poor period earlier this season where they at home won 2-1 against AaB. Only idea picks now as I predict that market could move even further towards AaB. I also like a bet on over here. AaB the most scoring team in the league and Würtz important for their defensive stability. Bruninho is deadly if he finds the form from previous rounds.

Ideas: 1 (AH +0) – 2.025 at Bet365
Over 2.5 goals – 1.92 at Unibet

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen
SønderjyskE are the team that you can never rule out. The match against OB last weekend proofed that. They came from behind to take a 2-1 win. They have started the season in fine fashion under new head coach Jakob Michelsen. The team is average, but they have a good mentality and they tend to be deadly in away games, where they are allowed to counter. They will be without central midfielder Nicolaj Madsen who is banned here. He is a regular and I don’t regard the squad depth to be fairly big, so it is a loss. FC Copenhagen are back in the classical winning mode under Ståle Solbakken. They take slim wins without impressing, but the win is rarely in doubt. They are strong at the back, but lack some momentum in attack at the moment. There is some uncertainty regarding the two offensive profiles Nicolai Jørgensen and Federico Santander, but I expect both to be available here. FC Copenhagen lead the league in Shots on Target Ratio and this matches my impression of the team fairly well.

The last time FC Copenhagen visited SønderjyskE you could get odds +2 for an away win. That was a nice price (also Tip of the Week then) and FC Copenhagen won 3-1. This time around, there is a lower price and some uncertainty regarding the offensive profiles. I still have the sensation that FC Copenhagen will win this, especially as I think SønderjyskE face problems when meeting the strongest teams in the league.

Idea: 2 – 1.83 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-FC Midtjylland
Brøndby are getting good results at the moment, but despite of this they are not really impressive. They have a team with potential surely, but there is still some way to reach the full potential. This is especially offensively, where players like Schwartz and Eriksson both should improve their performances. Defensively, they look decent. Especially when Agger is playing at the back. That won’t be the case here, Agger is absent which will weaken them severely since he is very influential. FC Midtjylland are getting good results in the league and internationally. However, the tight schedule is leading to tiredness and injuries. FC Midtjylland are playing against Napoli Thursday night and several starters are likely to play despite of minor injuries (Sisto, Sviatchenko, Sparv and Novak). Some players are also out and will also miss this match (Olsson, Andersson and Bach Bak) and even though FC Midtjylland have many players, it will hurt them to be without this many players. I could see them resting some of players with minor injuries here, and if so they cannot be favourites in a difficult away game.

Brøndby will be without their captain, but so will FC Midtjylland (Bach Bak) plus potentially a number of regulars. The last match ended scoreless 0-0 and this could easily be the case here with two teams that have been strong at the back this season. But given the tight schedule of FC Midtjylland and the potential list of absence, I think it might be a good idea to go with the home side (with draw insurance naturally).

Tip of the Week: 1 (DNB) – 2.05 at Cashpoint

Randers-OB
Randers played a fine game at FC Midtjylland, but lost 2-1 when FC Midtjylland scored a late goal in a moment where the match could have gone either way. Randers are without injuries and they have a strong squad. They do tend to struggle against the weaker teams that arrive with a very defensive approach. However, OB are unlikely to take this approach since it is not the philosophy of the head coach. Given the poor performance of the defence this season, I believe OB can be happy with the current 16 points and a position in the middle of the table. The back line is among the worst in the league, and the goalkeeper Koval is not convincing. OB have conceded a league high: 72 shots on target and 23 goals. Offensively they are able to create a lot with Falk and Festersen, so they are also able to win matches. This can also explain why OB have only one draw this season: it is a win or lose team. They will be without central midfielder Busuladzic who is banned, but he should be replaceable.

Randers should be clear favourites to win, but an OB win is surely possible. They are strong at counter-attacks and have offensive weapons that can hurt OB. Instead, I would rather go for the over/under market, where I think that odds 2.00 for over 2.5 goals in a match with OB included are a nice price. They have gone over that line in 9 out of 12 matches (including 5 out of 6 away matches), while Randers have gone over in 7 out of 12 matches.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.00 at Bet365

19. okt. 2015

Week 12 round-up

Could have been better. Could have been worse. Positive that the Tip of the Week got out of its poor period. Now it is time for the recommendations too. Well, hopefully possible to turn it around next week. It is about time!


15. okt. 2015

Week 12 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-Randers
First placed FC Midtjylland look to continue their good streak. However, the break for internationals could harm them as they had a lot of players leaving for international duty. They have a number of injuries, most importantly captain and right back Kristian Bach Bak and midfielder Petter Andersson. From the called squad, they should be able to field a strong team. However, central midfielder Kristoffer Olsson, who is in the called squad, picked up an injury during the week and I don't expect him to play here. This forces FC Midtjylland to use the very young Mikkel Duelund or change formation to a 4-4-2 using Pusic and Duncan as strikers. If the first is the case, I expect the odds for home win to rise a bit. FC Midtjylland will find comfort in a good home record, a good H2H record with Randers (won the last five) and star winger Pione Sisto starting to look close to his best. Randers are a team of solid players. They play a classic 4-4-2 formation and are focused on good organisation and hard work. They lack some X-factor, but they often dominate opponents with superior physique. This is unlikely to be the case here as FC Midtjylland are strong physically, so this is not the best match-up. Randers have a full squad to choose from.

I expected to recommend a home win here, but the news of Olsson probably missing the match concerns me. Will it be enough to lose the battle for the central midfield? Defensively, FC Midtjylland should be able to shut Randers down and with the offensive quality in Sisto and Pusic/Duncan they should be able to find the net. But only idea pick as it is likely that the market will make a small negative reaction when the line-ups arrive. The best bet is probably FC Midtjylland not to concede: they have 8 clean sheets in 11 matches and Betfair is well above the market on this one.

Recommendation: FC Midtjylland clean sheet - 2.48 at Betfair
Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) - 1.92 at Betfair


OB-SønderjyskE
Two very volatile teams. Both have a defence and a goalkeeper that is not all to compelling (especially OB) and an attack that sometimes goes in a scoring frenzy (especially OB). Truth is they are very efficient sides who do not many chances to score. Festersen and Jacobsen of OB are both very strong finishers and the same can be said with Bechmann and Dalgaard of SønderjyskE. So this match will be centered on not allowing opposing strikers to get these chances. OB have the strongest individual to set up the strikers in midfielder Rasmus Falk who leads the league in assists. SønderjyskE on the other hand have a defensively strong midfield. The question is whether OB can move the ball past the SønderjyskE midfielders. If they lose the ball, SønderjyskE will be deadly on their characteristic counter-attacks. OB have no injuries and the team is much stronger than when the lost 0-4 to SønderjyskE a month ago. SønderjyskE with a few issues - the absence of midfielder Troels Kløve being the most important.

The result of this match is very dependent on the passing quality of the OB midfield. If they are able to move the ball quickly without loss of possession they should dominate SønderjyskE and win the match. If they are too sloppy, SønderjyskE should capitalize from their strong counter-attacking game. I think the first is more likely. Enough for value? Border case..

Idea: 1 - 2.45 at Cashpoint

AGF-FC Nordsjælland
AGF are going through a rather poor period. They have lost the last four league games and not won in eight games. They have been rather toothless offensively. Kim Aabech has not looked at his best lately and AGF suffer when that is the case. Defensively, they continue to commit stupid mistakes that ends in goals conceded. For this match they could be without two vital players: veteran midfielder Danny Olsen is banned and talented central defender Jens Jønsson is doubtful with an injury. This is two influential Danish players, and in a squad consisting of many nationalities, it could be hurtful to miss two players who are have a stronger commitment to the team. FC Nordsjælland have mostly been experiencing upward form until the last round, where OB gave them a lesson. FC Nordsjælland are set to be without central defender Pascal Gregor, which is concerning since they lack a good alternative for the central defence. On the wings, there is still uncertainty regarding the fitness situation of Joshua John and Moberg-Karlsson who have missed the last few matches. Bruninho still have a midfield consisting of strong passers and a great striker in Bruninho who can create something out of the blue.

Both teams with some important absences. It is matter of how they cope with this. I am concerned for both back lines and the head coaches are likely to be of same perception. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see both sides adopting a pretty conservative approach in order protect the back line. However, under 2.5 goals has a rather low price, so I will skip that. Instead, a draw is perhaps more interesting. This would be an acceptable result for both sides.

Idea: X - 3.47 at Bet25

Viborg-Brøndby
Viborg are a solid team. They are difficult to beat due to the strong and physical appearance. They suffered a bit in the last match due to many injuries, but all players are set to return here except central defender Jeroen Veldmate. Especially, in attack they will experience a major improvement with the return of team top goalscorer Jeppe Curth and the pacy striker Serge Deble. Only FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen have allowed fewer shots on goals this season, which really underlines the strong defence (and the strong defensive commitment) of the team. They will also approach this match conservatively, since they lost the last match against Brøndby 0-4 (very efficient Brøndby side). Brøndby are fairly up and down. They were poor in the last round against Esbjerg (1-1), but did well to beat FC Copenhagen in the prior round. On paper Brøndby have an interesting side, but in action they often lack some spark offensively. They are very dependent on striker Teemu Pukki having a good day. Defensively, they look fairly good and it will be difficult for Viborg to find the net.

Viborg with a lot of players returning here, which should be a positive thing. Despite of this, it is fairly challenging to see how Viborg will score if it is not from set pieces. Brøndby should have a higher probability of scoring due to the stronger offensive players. Therefore, a small idea pick here on the away side.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) - 1.925 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Hobro
FC Copenhagen have a very interesting squad, but they lack some power in attack. Expensive striker signing Federico Santander is not producing chances enough to justify his price (and 0 goals so far!). FC Copenhagen are secure defensively. Their midfield is mostly consisting of players with the main strength in the defensive department. This makes FC Copenhagen very challenging to beat, but after two slim 1-0 wins against the bottom teams of the league, it is also evident that they lack some breakthrough strength offensively, where a lot of pressure is on Nicolai Jørgensen to create something. The absence of winger Benjamin Verbic does not make the situation much easier. Hobro are stuck in the bottom. It is not totally fair, since they were deducted 3 points for problems with a player certificate and they have several points at the very end of matches. I believe the team has become much stronger lately. They have made some quality signings, which should earn them some points down the line. That is, if the situation around the club is not too chaotic. Serious rumors suggest that head coach Jonas Dal might soon be signing a deal with Esbjerg. This is bad news, since his positive attitude is pretty defining for Hobro.

FC Copenhagen will win this match. Anything else would be very surprising. However, the size of the win is unlikely to be big due to FC Copenhagen's current attacking inability. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 win here, and I think the line is pretty attractive for two sides who are pretty 50/50 in terms of crossing the over 2.5 goal line.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals - 2.16 at Unibet

Esbjerg-AaB
Esbjerg concern me. They have spent a lot of money to cover some gaps from players leaving, but I think they have lost some team spirit in the process. Players are mostly playing for themselves and on several occasions the good pass has been aborted for a naive shot on goal. The situation is not made easier by two of the best players suffering from injury: winger Robin Söder and right back Ryan Johnson Laursen. The defence of Esbjerg is fairly shaky and it is difficult to see them getting a clean sheet against a good opposing attack. AaB were magnificent in the last round, where they smashed SønderjyskE 5-0. On their good days they are brilliant offensively. The midfield is also among the best when Thomsen, Risgaard and Würtz are together. Defensively, there is still a bit to work with, but they have some promising backs in Dalsgaard and Ahlmann. These are able to bring something extra to the offence through forward raids and good crosses. AaB will be without the banned midfielder/attacker Thomas Enevoldsen, but he should be replaceable by Rasmus Jönsson.

Esbjerg have a lot of talented individuals, so on a good day they can play good football. In general, it is not good due to the poor defence and seemingly poor team spirit. AaB have team spirit and a good offensive production and I see them as favorites here. Not big favorites, but favorites and that is enough to make it the Tip of the Week. An over bet is also of interest.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) - 1.975 at Bet365
Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 1.95 at Tipico

4. okt. 2015

Week 11 round-up

This is getting annoying. Who cares about good market movements, when the best picks constantly fails. Really annoyed by this 2015 which has been absolutely terrible: a hefty -10% yield, which has killed the overall surplus of Superligabets. Terribly sorry to all the followers.

I have been a bit disappointed by the level of response to the previews. Well, I guess it is also natural due to the poor record. However, in order to save some time, I will probably shorten the length of the previews, so they will only argue for the betting picks. Maybe I will go back to the other format in the future if it is requested.