Week 13 Superliga previews

Hobro-AGF
A lot of chaos in Hobro right now. Their successful head coach from last season, Jonas Dal, just left the job to go to Esbjerg after a lot of media attention. New head coach is Lars Justesen, brother to the captain Mads Justesen. Hobro are in a difficult position. They are last - 6 points after the nearest team. Given the off the pitch chaos, morale is unlikely to be high. Hobro are still suffering from a number of injuries, but should be able to field a decent team, where especially the attack is interesting (with Park and Kirkevold). AGF are in a much better position after winning against 3-0 FC Nordsjælland last weekend. Before this, AGF have been performing quite poorly, so it was quite surprising to see them demolish FC Nordsjælland. A lot of AGF's offensive play went through winger Cavric, who looks like a solid signing. The clean sheet in the last game could signal better times ahead. AGF have a very low saving percentage of 62.5 % (league average 69.7%) and this is unlikely to remain at such a low level.

AGF will have good support on the stands, so I don't expect the home advantage to be so big here. At the same time I have my concerns regarding the focus of the Hobro players. Therefore I prefer the away win here, although I don't regard this as a big value pick.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.5) - 2.075 at Bet365

Viborg-Esbjerg
Viborg must wonder what they have to do to find the net. They had 23 shots in the last match against Brøndby (lost 0-2) without scoring. This is the big issue for Viborg! They have only scored 6 times in 12 games. However, two of these goals were against Esbjerg in the last match. Viborg are based on my stats, the most unlucky team in the league: they should score more and concede less given the amount of chances they create. Defensively they are fairly solid - only top runners FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen have conceded less shots on target this season. Offensively, they lack a striker with confidence. They have a great player in Serge Deble but he is still without a goal this season after scoring 15 times last season in the 1st Division. It should only be a matter of time before he scores and he finds some confidence. Defender Jeroen Veldmate is still out with an injury. Esbjerg are the other part of the big story of the week: Jonas Dal moving from Hobro to Esbjerg to become their head coach. However, with Jonas Dal having his first day at the job Thursday and the match being on Saturday he is unlikely to make any changes. Esbjerg could do with some changes though. They are poor at the back (the team that has conceded most shots so far). They are way to easy to create chances against. For this match, their defense is under further pressure since Michael Almebäck and Ryan Johnson Laursen are both expected to miss the match with injuries. Offensively, they have some quality players, but the impression is that these players are very selfish, they would rather take the shot than finding a more open teammate.

Viborg won the last match between the two teams and it could easily end the same way here. I have Viborg as slim favorites here. I think they have the quality to match Esbjerg, and I am concerned with Esbjerg's attitude: they often seem too relaxed against "weaker" opponents. Therefore, I see some value in a home win here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) - 2.00 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-AaB
After a period of playing some fine football, FC Norsjælland have fallen completely apart in the last two matches and lost 1-8 in total. They have lacked the attacking spark with key striker Bruninho having a few weak performances, but the defence have also been quite vulnerable. It is positive that central defender Pascal Gregor returns from ban. The question is what FC Nordsjælland team we will see here. There is quite a difference between their best and worst edition. But typically they are significantly stronger at home on artificial pitch. AaB have played some exciting offensive football lately. This has led to striker Spalvis earning the league top goalscorer title with 9 goals in only 9 matches! AaB have an exciting attacking play and the defence is also decent. However, an important driver for success for AaB is that the central midfield consists of Würtz and Risgaard. Unfortunately, Würtz is banned for this match, and the alternatives are nowhere near as good. Offensive midfielder Enevoldsen returns from ban, while right back Dalsgaard should return from sickness.

If you are just valuing form, this should be a clear away win. But ignoring this, seeing a traditionally strong home team without injuries being underdog against a so-so away team without their captain who is vital for their balance, offer a potentially good bet. I backed FC Nordsjælland after a likewise poor period earlier this season where they at home won 2-1 against AaB. Only idea picks now as I predict that market could move even further towards AaB. I also like a bet on over here. AaB the most scoring team in the league and Würtz important for their defensive stability. Bruninho is deadly if he finds the form from previous rounds.

Ideas: 1 (AH +0) – 2.025 at Bet365

Over 2.5 goals – 1.92 at Unibet

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen

SønderjyskE are the team that you can never rule out. The match against OB last weekend proofed that. They came from behind to take a 2-1 win. They have started the season in fine fashion under new head coach Jakob Michelsen. The team is average, but they have a good mentality and they tend to be deadly in away games, where they are allowed to counter. They will be without central midfielder Nicolaj Madsen who is banned here. He is a regular and I don’t regard the squad depth to be fairly big, so it is a loss. FC Copenhagen are back in the classical winning mode under Ståle Solbakken. They take slim wins without impressing, but the win is rarely in doubt. They are strong at the back, but lack some momentum in attack at the moment. There is some uncertainty regarding the two offensive profiles Nicolai Jørgensen and Federico Santander, but I expect both to be available here. FC Copenhagen lead the league in Shots on Target Ratio and this matches my impression of the team fairly well.

The last time FC Copenhagen visited SønderjyskE you could get odds +2 for an away win. That was a nice price (also Tip of the Week then) and FC Copenhagen won 3-1. This time around, there is a lower price and some uncertainty regarding the offensive profiles. I still have the sensation that FC Copenhagen will win this, especially as I think SønderjyskE face problems when meeting the strongest teams in the league.

Idea: 2 – 1.83 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-FC Midtjylland

Brøndby are getting good results at the moment, but despite of this they are not really impressive. They have a team with potential surely, but there is still some way to reach the full potential. This is especially offensively, where players like Schwartz and Eriksson both should improve their performances. Defensively, they look decent. Especially when Agger is playing at the back. That won’t be the case here, Agger is absent which will weaken them severely since he is very influential. FC Midtjylland are getting good results in the league and internationally. However, the tight schedule is leading to tiredness and injuries. FC Midtjylland are playing against Napoli Thursday night and several starters are likely to play despite of minor injuries (Sisto, Sviatchenko, Sparv and Novak). Some players are also out and will also miss this match (Olsson, Andersson and Bach Bak) and even though FC Midtjylland have many players, it will hurt them to be without this many players. I could see them resting some of players with minor injuries here, and if so they cannot be favourites in a difficult away game.

Brøndby will be without their captain, but so will FC Midtjylland (Bach Bak) plus potentially a number of regulars. The last match ended scoreless 0-0 and this could easily be the case here with two teams that have been strong at the back this season. But given the tight schedule of FC Midtjylland and the potential list of absence, I think it might be a good idea to go with the home side (with draw insurance naturally).

Tip of the Week: 1 (DNB) – 2.05 at Cashpoint

Randers-OB

Randers played a fine game at FC Midtjylland, but lost 2-1 when FC Midtjylland scored a late goal in a moment where the match could have gone either way. Randers are without injuries and they have a strong squad. They do tend to struggle against the weaker teams that arrive with a very defensive approach. However, OB are unlikely to take this approach since it is not the philosophy of the head coach. Given the poor performance of the defence this season, I believe OB can be happy with the current 16 points and a position in the middle of the table. The back line is among the worst in the league, and the goalkeeper Koval is not convincing. OB have conceded a league high: 72 shots on target and 23 goals. Offensively they are able to create a lot with Falk and Festersen, so they are also able to win matches. This can also explain why OB have only one draw this season: it is a win or lose team. They will be without central midfielder Busuladzic who is banned, but he should be replaceable.

Randers should be clear favourites to win, but an OB win is surely possible. They are strong at counter-attacks and have offensive weapons that can hurt OB. Instead, I would rather go for the over/under market, where I think that odds 2.00 for over 2.5 goals in a match with OB included are a nice price. They have gone over that line in 9 out of 12 matches (including 5 out of 6 away matches), while Randers have gone over in 7 out of 12 matches.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.00 at Bet365