Week 14 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-FC Nordsjælland

Esbjerg have been bad this season. They lack confidence and clear direction. They hope to get that with the new head coach Jonas Dal who is known for his positive attitude and focus on team spirit. Esbjerg are typically strong at home, where they play with high intensity, but they have not had much success this season though with only one home win. However, it is worth noticing that Esbjerg have mainly faced the top teams at home. Esbjerg will look to change formation to a more defensive minded 4-2-3-1. They will be without offensive midfielder Fellah who is injured, but apart from this they should be able to field a strong team (at least based on salary). Goalkeeper Dubravka is doubtful and the reserve Jonas Jensen is rather unproven at the highest level. FC Nordsjælland are a classical Superliga up-and-down team. Last weekend they won 3-0 against in-form AaB. Before that they lost 1-8 in the previous two games. FC Nordsjælland are known as a team for which home advantage mean a lot. They are the only team with an artificial pitch and it seems to suit their style well. Away, the case is different – and they often seem less motivated than the home team. In any case, they often find it very difficult in away games against the offensively strong teams. For this match, they will be without captain and left back Patrick Mtiliga who is banned. They lack a good replacement, so the left back will be a weak spot. A strong spot is the striker position, where Bruninho, the league top goalscorer, will see if he can overcame the rather vulnerable Esbjerg defence.

At first glance, this looks like a clear over game. However, the price has already dropped somewhat and the news that Esbjerg are moving towards a more compact formation is not bright news for that bet. Instead, I think a home win could be interesting despite of Esbjerg’s poor start to the season. Nevertheless, it is rare that the price for a Esbjerg home win is around 2.40 against a rather poor away team as FC Nordsjælland (1.90 the last time they met in Esbjerg). Nevertheless, I think the price might increase even further so only an idea pick.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.025 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-Viborg

FC Midtjylland are not in perfect condition at the moment. They have lost the last three matches (Europa League, Superliga and cup), but difficult matches and a long list of injuries can explain much. The situation is looking better as FC Midtjylland are welcoming regulars winger Pione Sisto, midfielder Kristoffer Olsson, central defender Erik Sviatchenko and striker Martin Pusic back in the squad. However, it is worth noticing that FC Midtjylland have a tendency of calling up players that won’t be playing. Nevertheless, they are not calling up these four players without some of them being capable of playing. One concern is the ban for central midfielder Tim Sparv. He has been a big asset for FC Midtjylland this season and just got the price as Finland’s player of the year. Viborg will love to get something here. FC Midtjylland are their arch rival, but it will be difficult. The injury situation is pretty good and apart from central defender Veldmate they should be able to field the strongest line-up here. Viborg have lacked some efficiency in front of goal, but with four goals, the strikers could have earned some confidence.

FC Midtjylland have something to prove here, and since the team is looking to be significantly improved they should have good chances of a good performance. They should field a team that is way stronger than Viborg and especially the back line should be strong enough to keep the Viborg strikers at bay. Viborg have played a solid season, but I think they will face too tough a challenge here. The price for FC Midtjylland home win in same match earlier the season closed around 1.45. Although FC Midtjylland have some injuries, it is not a big problem if the called up players are fit.

Idea: 1 – 1.62 at Sportingbet

AaB-Hobro

AaB suffered a disappointing loss at FC Nordsjælland 3-0. AaB always find it difficult to play at the artificial pitch in Farum and they were also without their captain Rasmus Würtz. He is a talismanic player, so it is vital that he is set to return from a ban here. AaB are an attacking minded team and it is no coincidence that they are the most scoring team in the league; they are also the team with most shots on target. They are very strong at home, where they have recently won the last two games with 3 and 5 goals. They have some injury concerns in the back line (Dalsgaard and Ahlmann), but they have decent players to cover. Hobro won impressively 3-1 against AGF in the last round, despite a lot of drama off the pitch (change of head coach). Despite of the success on the pitch, it also had its cost. Hobro lost several players to injury, including the two offensive profiles Park and George. Furthermore, talismanic defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg (last season: 0.57 points per game without him (7 matches) and 1.5 points per game with him) misses the match with a ban, while only dangerous offensive player left in the squad, Pål Alexander Kirkevold, is an injury doubt. In total, it is a Hobro team heavily hit by injuries and it is difficult to see how they will maintain possession against AaB.

The last time Hobro visited AaB they lost 5-0. AaB would love to beat regional little brother Hobro and this match is really suited for a big win. Without their offensive profiles, Hobro will struggle to threaten AaB’s defence, while allowing AaB’s strong offense to have more time on the ball. This really looks like a potential big win for the home side. I personally go for a two-goal win, but also good value if you are more conservative.

Tip of the Week: AaB 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.48 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-Randers

FC Copenhagen are in good form and have won 6 out of the last 7 league games. They are the current league favorites and with good reason as they are very solid at the back and have some dangerous strikers. The squad situation is fairly good at the moment, which also might be a potential explanation for the current good run. FC Copenhagen will try to dominate the match from the start to the finish here. It is a small minus that they were forced to play 120 minutes in the cup on Thursday, but they have not had a tight schedule this autumn, so the players should not be too fatigued. Randers are kind of a FC Copenhagen-light. They are also very well organised in a 4-4-2 focused on defensive stability and with some quality goal getters up front. Unfortunately, Randers top goalscorer Viktor Lundberg missed the last match due to injury, and it is uncertain whether he will return. The other striker, Mikael Ishak, is normally regarded as Randers’ best offensive weapon, but he is lacking confidence at the moment and has had a poor season.

What to bet on here? FC Copenhagen won a similar match in the middle of September with the score 3-0, but I recall this match as very even. FC Copenhagen were very efficient, and normally the matches between FC Copenhagen and Randers are fairly even. FC Copenhagen are in a phase, where they take some slim wins and a 1-0/2-1 win look very likely. Therefore, I pick the one goal win as an idea here.

Idea: X (0-1) – 3.55 at Unibet

OB-Brøndby

OB are fairly up and down. It really depends on the mood of offensive players like Rasmus Falk and Rasmus Festersen. If they really are on top, OB can breakthrough any defence. However, OB’s attack is often limited by the inability of their defence. They spend a lot of energy trying to protect a back line that is among the weakest in the league. Had it not been for some fine saves by Koval (who actually looked pretty insecure in present matches), they would have lost in Randers. OB will have to cope without strong central midfielder Makrini who is banned. He is a good defensive anchorman with nice vision and it could hurt OB’s balance to be without him. OB are forced to use a youngster or a player out of position instead. Brøndby are experiencing an upward sloping form curve. After a start where they underperformed, they have since rebounded and won a lot of matches. The injury situation is good at the moment and they have added some quality to the midfield with the return of Kahlenberg. Defensively, Daniel Agger returns from a ban to strengthen the back line. I see this Brøndby team as fairly strong, although their attack needs a bit more venom.

This is a difficult match to predict. Brøndby will surely dominate possession, while OB will lurk on counter-attacks, which they really like. However, the absence of Makrini combined with the good state and form of Brøndby really favours the away team.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.975 at Bet365

AGF-SønderjyskE

AGF beat FC Nordsjælland 3-0 one week, then loses 3-1 at Hobro the next weekend. In other words, you don’t know what you get. However, the match against Hobro was a low point as AGF were terrible in everything they did. The back line really showed its insufficiencies against a physical and fast striker – fortunately, they won’t face a similar striker here. AGF will benefit from midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen returning from a ban, which should make them move Jens Jönsson back in defence. That should at least improve the defensive strength of the team. Offensively, it is not all too impressive. Only on the bright days of Kim Aabech do AGF look like a quality team, and AGF especially suffer from the lack of an in-form striker. SønderjyskE lost 1-2 against FC Copenhagen last weekend. Classical result as SønderjyskE always tends to struggle against the very best teams. Against the rest of the league, SønderjyskE are so committed and good at implementing their strategy that they earn a lot of points despite of having a rather low budget. They will be without the strong defensive midfielder Janus Drachmann here, but Nicolaj Madsen returns from a ban to replace him. SønderjyskE will try to win this match by deploying a counter-attacking strategy, which worked the last time they visited Aarhus (won 2-1 in an even match).

Another match that is difficult to predict, mainly due to the instable nature of AGF. In the last match-up the market closed around 2.30 for AGF win. Now the price is 0.20 higher. What has happened since? AGF have a fit squad and found a new weapon in winger Alexander Cavric, while SønderjyskE have some serious absences (Kløve and Drachmann). In that light, it is a good price to get the home win at 2.50. However, it is only an idea pick as SønderjyskE have a history of good performance in matches like this.

Idea: 1 – 2.50 at Tipico