Week 12 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-Randers
First placed FC Midtjylland look to continue their good streak. However, the break for internationals could harm them as they had a lot of players leaving for international duty. They have a number of injuries, most importantly captain and right back Kristian Bach Bak and midfielder Petter Andersson. From the called squad, they should be able to field a strong team. However, central midfielder Kristoffer Olsson, who is in the called squad, picked up an injury during the week and I don't expect him to play here. This forces FC Midtjylland to use the very young Mikkel Duelund or change formation to a 4-4-2 using Pusic and Duncan as strikers. If the first is the case, I expect the odds for home win to rise a bit. FC Midtjylland will find comfort in a good home record, a good H2H record with Randers (won the last five) and star winger Pione Sisto starting to look close to his best. Randers are a team of solid players. They play a classic 4-4-2 formation and are focused on good organisation and hard work. They lack some X-factor, but they often dominate opponents with superior physique. This is unlikely to be the case here as FC Midtjylland are strong physically, so this is not the best match-up. Randers have a full squad to choose from.

I expected to recommend a home win here, but the news of Olsson probably missing the match concerns me. Will it be enough to lose the battle for the central midfield? Defensively, FC Midtjylland should be able to shut Randers down and with the offensive quality in Sisto and Pusic/Duncan they should be able to find the net. But only idea pick as it is likely that the market will make a small negative reaction when the line-ups arrive. The best bet is probably FC Midtjylland not to concede: they have 8 clean sheets in 11 matches and Betfair is well above the market on this one.

Recommendation: FC Midtjylland clean sheet - 2.48 at Betfair
Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) - 1.92 at Betfair


OB-SønderjyskE
Two very volatile teams. Both have a defence and a goalkeeper that is not all to compelling (especially OB) and an attack that sometimes goes in a scoring frenzy (especially OB). Truth is they are very efficient sides who do not many chances to score. Festersen and Jacobsen of OB are both very strong finishers and the same can be said with Bechmann and Dalgaard of SønderjyskE. So this match will be centered on not allowing opposing strikers to get these chances. OB have the strongest individual to set up the strikers in midfielder Rasmus Falk who leads the league in assists. SønderjyskE on the other hand have a defensively strong midfield. The question is whether OB can move the ball past the SønderjyskE midfielders. If they lose the ball, SønderjyskE will be deadly on their characteristic counter-attacks. OB have no injuries and the team is much stronger than when the lost 0-4 to SønderjyskE a month ago. SønderjyskE with a few issues - the absence of midfielder Troels Kløve being the most important.

The result of this match is very dependent on the passing quality of the OB midfield. If they are able to move the ball quickly without loss of possession they should dominate SønderjyskE and win the match. If they are too sloppy, SønderjyskE should capitalize from their strong counter-attacking game. I think the first is more likely. Enough for value? Border case..

Idea: 1 - 2.45 at Cashpoint

AGF-FC Nordsjælland
AGF are going through a rather poor period. They have lost the last four league games and not won in eight games. They have been rather toothless offensively. Kim Aabech has not looked at his best lately and AGF suffer when that is the case. Defensively, they continue to commit stupid mistakes that ends in goals conceded. For this match they could be without two vital players: veteran midfielder Danny Olsen is banned and talented central defender Jens Jønsson is doubtful with an injury. This is two influential Danish players, and in a squad consisting of many nationalities, it could be hurtful to miss two players who are have a stronger commitment to the team. FC Nordsjælland have mostly been experiencing upward form until the last round, where OB gave them a lesson. FC Nordsjælland are set to be without central defender Pascal Gregor, which is concerning since they lack a good alternative for the central defence. On the wings, there is still uncertainty regarding the fitness situation of Joshua John and Moberg-Karlsson who have missed the last few matches. Bruninho still have a midfield consisting of strong passers and a great striker in Bruninho who can create something out of the blue.

Both teams with some important absences. It is matter of how they cope with this. I am concerned for both back lines and the head coaches are likely to be of same perception. Therefore, it would not be surprising to see both sides adopting a pretty conservative approach in order protect the back line. However, under 2.5 goals has a rather low price, so I will skip that. Instead, a draw is perhaps more interesting. This would be an acceptable result for both sides.

Idea: X - 3.47 at Bet25

Viborg-Brøndby
Viborg are a solid team. They are difficult to beat due to the strong and physical appearance. They suffered a bit in the last match due to many injuries, but all players are set to return here except central defender Jeroen Veldmate. Especially, in attack they will experience a major improvement with the return of team top goalscorer Jeppe Curth and the pacy striker Serge Deble. Only FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen have allowed fewer shots on goals this season, which really underlines the strong defence (and the strong defensive commitment) of the team. They will also approach this match conservatively, since they lost the last match against Brøndby 0-4 (very efficient Brøndby side). Brøndby are fairly up and down. They were poor in the last round against Esbjerg (1-1), but did well to beat FC Copenhagen in the prior round. On paper Brøndby have an interesting side, but in action they often lack some spark offensively. They are very dependent on striker Teemu Pukki having a good day. Defensively, they look fairly good and it will be difficult for Viborg to find the net.

Viborg with a lot of players returning here, which should be a positive thing. Despite of this, it is fairly challenging to see how Viborg will score if it is not from set pieces. Brøndby should have a higher probability of scoring due to the stronger offensive players. Therefore, a small idea pick here on the away side.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) - 1.925 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Hobro
FC Copenhagen have a very interesting squad, but they lack some power in attack. Expensive striker signing Federico Santander is not producing chances enough to justify his price (and 0 goals so far!). FC Copenhagen are secure defensively. Their midfield is mostly consisting of players with the main strength in the defensive department. This makes FC Copenhagen very challenging to beat, but after two slim 1-0 wins against the bottom teams of the league, it is also evident that they lack some breakthrough strength offensively, where a lot of pressure is on Nicolai Jørgensen to create something. The absence of winger Benjamin Verbic does not make the situation much easier. Hobro are stuck in the bottom. It is not totally fair, since they were deducted 3 points for problems with a player certificate and they have several points at the very end of matches. I believe the team has become much stronger lately. They have made some quality signings, which should earn them some points down the line. That is, if the situation around the club is not too chaotic. Serious rumors suggest that head coach Jonas Dal might soon be signing a deal with Esbjerg. This is bad news, since his positive attitude is pretty defining for Hobro.

FC Copenhagen will win this match. Anything else would be very surprising. However, the size of the win is unlikely to be big due to FC Copenhagen's current attacking inability. I expect a 1-0 or 2-0 win here, and I think the line is pretty attractive for two sides who are pretty 50/50 in terms of crossing the over 2.5 goal line.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals - 2.16 at Unibet

Esbjerg-AaB
Esbjerg concern me. They have spent a lot of money to cover some gaps from players leaving, but I think they have lost some team spirit in the process. Players are mostly playing for themselves and on several occasions the good pass has been aborted for a naive shot on goal. The situation is not made easier by two of the best players suffering from injury: winger Robin Söder and right back Ryan Johnson Laursen. The defence of Esbjerg is fairly shaky and it is difficult to see them getting a clean sheet against a good opposing attack. AaB were magnificent in the last round, where they smashed SønderjyskE 5-0. On their good days they are brilliant offensively. The midfield is also among the best when Thomsen, Risgaard and Würtz are together. Defensively, there is still a bit to work with, but they have some promising backs in Dalsgaard and Ahlmann. These are able to bring something extra to the offence through forward raids and good crosses. AaB will be without the banned midfielder/attacker Thomas Enevoldsen, but he should be replaceable by Rasmus Jönsson.

Esbjerg have a lot of talented individuals, so on a good day they can play good football. In general, it is not good due to the poor defence and seemingly poor team spirit. AaB have team spirit and a good offensive production and I see them as favorites here. Not big favorites, but favorites and that is enough to make it the Tip of the Week. An over bet is also of interest.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) - 1.975 at Bet365
Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 1.95 at Tipico