Week 14 round-up (14/15)

6th week in a row with positive profits! This week we had a return of +2.57 units (+37% return). Finally, we had some success with our Tip of the Week. Esbjerg had as we expected problems against a physical Randers team. We got our SønderjyskE recommendation, but missed our Brøndby recommendation by miles. Impressive performance by Hobro, that were able dominate Brøndby physically. Brøndby were very poor however, especially after Agger left with an injury. Our ideas were great - and only a late Silkeborg goal ruined a full house. We had no #Twitbets in this weekend, but they will be back. Next Superliga matches are in two weeks, and we will post previews after next weekend.

Randers-Esbjerg

Saturday 8/11 19.00

Randers (4th) have had a poor period when measured by points. Five points in the last five games is not spectacular, but Randers is not a spectacular team. They are a well-organised, physical team that sometimes lack the deciding firepower offensively. This has been exactly the case in these games with Randers not scoring in four out the five matches (they won 3-0 against OB though). Defensively they are rock solid and have only allowed two goals in these matches. Randers are normally very strong at their home pitch. The pitch in Randers has a reputation of being in a poor state, but this is not illogical, since this is in favour of Randers physical approach. Randers will be without central defender Mads Agesen. His absence is likely to be covered by Jeppe Tverskov who did well the last time he got the chance. Esbjerg (8th) are starting to come alive. The 4-1 win at FC Vestsjælland was great, although Esbjerg struggled until they got the first goal randomly. Esbjerg lack the skills to break up a defensive opponent, but when they get space they are deadly. Esbjerg will be without their captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen, and this is not a good match to do without him, since he is the only midfielder with great physique. The other midfielders are small and technical, and Esbjerg will be forced to use the lightweight Fellah on right wing. Fellah is a good footballer, but could suffer from Randers physical approach and the heavy pitch. That should be the fear for Esbjerg: that Randers outmuscles them. This has happened in the past, and the stadium in Randers is not among the favourite stadiums for Esbjerg.

The market has moved quite a lot since it opened (towards Esbjerg victory). We feel it has overdone it. Esbjerg should not be favourites here, despite of their impressive showings lately. Randers are a tough nut to crack and usually a bad match for Esbjerg. Value is in a home win, but covering for the draw is necessary.

Tip of the Week: 1 (DNB) – 2.00 at Unibet

Leaguespy access:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40567&a=33624 

Silkeborg-FC Midtjylland

Friday 7/11 18.30

Silkeborg (12th) are undoubtedly heading for relegation. The team lacks quality and currently also confidence. The performance in last round, 2-0 loss against a B-team from AaB, was just terrible. Silkeborg are doing okay until they reach the opponents box, from then on they only have one solution: hopeless long-range attempts. The front man Nikolaj Agger lacks the skills to cut through the opponents defence, and with alternatives Morten Beck injured and Jeppe Illum playing poorly, Silkeborg have over the past matches used unproven 18-year-old Robert Skov as second striker. Skov has actually done okay (scoring one of Silkeborg’s only seven goals for the season), but this illustrates the sort of problems Silkeborg have upfront. In the rest of the pitch, Silkeborg are a solid team with many experienced players, but nothing spectacular. One of their best players, central midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen is suspended for this match. FC Midtjylland (1st) are doing a great job with a strong squad. They have a range of quality players that can make the difference. Last weekend it was winger Pione Sisto who scored two goals in the 2-0 win against FC Nordsjælland. FC Midtjylland have done outstanding in this season, especially when having the number of injured players in mind. The injury situation has not exactly improved for this match. Central midfielder Jakob Poulsen (the league’s top assist player (5)) is injured and the ever-dangerous winger Sylvester Igboun is suspended. FC Midtjylland have decent alternatives in the squad, but they are more defensive minded. Not an optimal situation when facing a Silkeborg team that will be looking to take points by defending and countering.

Each end of the table is meeting here. Both teams have absences for key players, and for FC Midtjylland it could dampen their offensive performance. Silkeborg are traditionally a difficult opponent for FC Midtjylland, but in the current state we doubt they will be able to even grasp a point (also consider that FC Midtjylland will have great support due to the proximity of the clubs). The most interesting bet here is probably under 2.5 goals. Silkeborg have played more matches without scoring than matches scoring, and FC Midtjylland are without a player with 6 goals and a player with 5 assists. Alternatively, Silkeborg not to score at around 2.55 is decent.

Ideas: 2 – 1.81 at Betfair

Under 2.5 goals – 2.28 at Betfair

Leaguespy access here:

http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40565&a=33624

SønderjyskE-OB

Sunday 9/11 13.00

SønderjyskE (9th) have actually been playing some fine football this season. Together with league leaders FC Midtjylland they are the only ones to only have lost two matches this season. Yes, you are right, that must mean that SønderjyskE have a lot of draws listed in the table. Nine draws, seven of these in the last eight games (all of them finishing 1-1!). It is quite incredible. This tells a story about a team that is very difficult to beat (seen in the 1-1’s against top runners FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen), but also a team that has lacked the efficiency to win match. That is actually a bit surprising, since SønderjyskE holds two of the more efficient strikers in Marvin Pourie and Tommy Bechmann, a quality duo that should be able to attract many points during the season. SønderjyskE will also benefit from the return of strong defensive midfielder Adama Guira from suspension and Daniel Jensen should be fit after leaving last match with thigh problems. Winger Nikolaj Madsen is only regular who is still out for this match. OB (11th) took a win in the do-or-die match against Hobro last weekend (3-1). It was done in convincing fashion, but OB were also a bit lucky. They were down 0-1 after 30 minutes, but Hobro received an early red card, which gave more space to OB’s two star players Rasmus Falk and Emil Larsen. It is important to see the two reaching their highest level if OB are to survive this season. The question is what to put into this one good match, where OB mostly played eleven against ten. The rest of the matches have been largely poor, and we are not convinced that this one good game necessarily means that OB have become a much better team. They will undoubtedly be matched physically here. The previous game this season (in Odense) ended 1-1 (surprisingly).

Despite of OB’s important win last season, we doubt that they have resurrected. SønderjyskE are a strong team with great team culture, physique and a strong front duo. We regard them as clear favourites here, although we do fear the 1-1 result. If you are a chicken, consider covering with 1-1, but otherwise we believe that a home win could be awaiting here.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.26 at Nordicbet

AaB-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 9/11 15.00

AaB (6th) face the challenging task of competing in three competitions at the same time (league, cup and Europa League) and combined with a long list of injuries, it is mission impossible to be successful everywhere. The end result: AaB are semi-successful in what they do: placed in the middle of the table in the league, advancing in the cup through 120 minutes football and 2 wins out of 4 in Europa League. It was evident that AaB prioritized Europa League in the past week. They fielded a semi “B”-team in the league Monday (won nevertheless 2-0 against Silkeborg) followed by fielding the best team at Dynamo Kiev on Thursday (lost 2-0 but put in a good effort). With the 3rd game within a week awaiting the question is what they will do. Our guess is that AaB might have to rest a few players (alternatively, field a team with fatigued players). All the rotation is naturally not good for AaB who according to our stats on ability to create chances are only surpassing FC Vestsjælland (see our quality/luck graph on Twitter). FC Vestsjælland (10th) have some similarities to a poorly constructed house at the moment. They surely fall apart easily, and have only been able to come from behind and gain points in one match all season. In the past three weeks the 1-4 home against Esbjerg and 0-5 at Brøndby are concerning. FC Vestsjælland started the season with great energy under the new head coach Michael Hansen, but that energy appears gone now. They especially struggle in away matches (lost six out of seven – and only managed to beat Silkeborg luckily). As they play at the moment they deserve to be a part of the relegation race, and it is difficult to find positives.

Two teams that are challenged at the moment! AaB are challenged by their match schedule, while FC Vestsjælland are challenged by own poor performances. There is too much uncertainty surrounding how AaB will line-up, so we will not recommend betting on a home win here. Instead the under 2.5 goals bet looks interesting. Both teams are struggling with the chance creation.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.02 at Unibet

Hobro-Brøndby

Sunday 9/11 17.00

Hobro (7th) have not won in seven matches, and a quick conclusion would be that the opponents are finally on to them and no longer underestimates their quality. The key offensive players Quincy Antipas and Mads Hvilsom have also dropped in form. On the positive side is the consistency. Hobro have been largely unhurt by injuries and suspensions for key players, and this is vital if they are to survive in the league in this season. Winger Martin Mikkelsen is suspended though (but not one of the important players). They will undoubtedly try to win this match through a very physical approach, which worked in their last match (same pitch) where Hobro won 2-0. Brøndby (3rd) have changed several things since that loss. The two most important things are the addition of Daniel Agger that adds stability to the backline (team have not conceded in the last three matches!) and the addition of striker Teemu Pukki (five goals in seven matches). Pukki will be an improvement to former striker Simon Makienok in a match against Hobro, where speed in the front line is a superior force. They were able to overcome the physique of Randers last weekend, and a similar effort here will give problems for Hobro.

It is a match between two teams at each end of the momentum table. Brøndby should have superior quality to win this match. Hobro have also displayed a tendency to lose with more than one when they do lose, so a win by more than one is interesting.

Recommendation:  2 (AH -1) – 2.12 at Unibet

For our Danish followers (bet only available with Danish bookie):

Vi har lagt et #Twitbets spil op tidligere, hvor vi opfordrer til at spille på Hobro til at lukke 46 eller flere mål ind i denne sæson. Bet25 giver odds 2,35 for dette udfald, og vi tøver ikke med at give det 50% sandsynlighed. Hobro snitter pt. 1,46 mål per snit, og med dette snit lander de på 48 indkasserede mål. Eftersom Hobro virker til at dale meget i forhold til de første runder (modstandere har luret dem osv.), så har vi svært ved at finde argumenter for at dette snit skulle forbedre sig i den resterende del af sæsonen. Med andre ord et super spil!

FC Nordsjælland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 9/11 19.00

FC Nordsjælland (5th) have lost three in a row and all title aspirations must be gone now. FC Nordsjælland can feel a bit hard done. Had it not been for a red card against FC Midtjylland they were very likely to get at least a draw, and the week before they lost due to a late own goal against AaB who they dominated for 90 minutes. The bad period is therefore partially due to some unfortunate events, but it is also due to the key players, the wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John, experiencing a slight dip in form. FC Nordsjælland need the two to get back to maximum if they want to be a part of the top half. FC Nordsjælland will be without right back Mario Ticinovic who is suspended here. The young Andreas Maxsø is likely to cover the right back position.  FC Copenhagen (2nd) took a blow in midweek in the Europa League. With things starting to improve in the league, FC Copenhagen entered the home game against Club Brügge with good confidence, but were hammered by 0-4. Brügge were efficient, but FC Copenhagen were toothless offensively – something that has also been visible in the league. With the only two dangerous players doubtful for this match, Nicolai Jørgensen (substituted early against Brügge) and Andreas Cornelius (did not play against Brügge), FC Copenhagen are not something to be scared of. If the duo is not playing it will be interesting to see how they field, since they do not have any striker in the remaining squad. FC Copenhagen should benefit from great support in the stands (due to proximity of the clubs and a much larger fan base).

If FC Copenhagen are without Cornelius and Jørgensen, we doubt they can win here. FC Nordsjælland are surely not a bad team, and this match should then be very equal. If Cornelius and Jørgensen are playing, the situation is much better for FC Copenhagen, but with the current uncertainty with respect to their status, we surely feel that betting on FC Nordsjælland would be the sensible choice.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.95 at Bet365

Week 13 round-up (14/15)

We did just barely finish with a positive profit in this week. A positive return of +0.05 units (+1% return) is not much, but it is better than negative return! And it is actually our 5th week in a row with positive total return. Unfortunately, our Tip of the Week is still cursed. Hobro took the lead in Odense, but received an early red card and fell apart afterwards (lost 3-1). Our #Twitbet was again spot on, and this is our most profitable type of bets, so we can only recommend you to follow us on Twitter.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25