Week 15 Superliga previews

Silkeborg-OB

Friday 28/10 18.00

Silkeborg are in great form at the moment and just had a nice 3-1 win in Viborg. They were efficient, but they are starting to produce more offensively, while looking a bit better at the back, although I regard them as quite fragile. Only injury is rotation midfielder Agger, so the situation is quite good. OB are in terrible shape, having only won 1 out of the last 9 league games. OB have had some pretty poor matches and they have also underperformed significantly compared to expectations. However, it is also important to acknowledge that OB have been really unlucky. I currently have them ranked as the most unlucky team in the league. The main problem is offensive inefficiency, quite surprising given that they have one of the best finishers in striker Jacobsen. OB have had 122 shots from the penalty box and only managed to score 9 times. Under normal circumstances, you would expect that to yield 19 goals. Just consider how much 10 additional goals would have moved them in the league table. I am pretty sure we would not be talking about a crisis. OB will be without strong central midfielder Makrini who is banned. He is usually very important for OB, so a big loss. Rotation midfielder Greve is also out, but regular attacker Festersen is set to return from injury.

Silkeborg are having some momentum at the moment, while OB are suffering. However, I am still a bit sceptical regarding Silkeborg. Are they really as good as the recent matches suggest? Remember, they were number one candidate for relegation just a few weeks ago. OB have a stronger squad, but have been very unlucky. Confidence is important in football, but I would back OB here. I think they are better than Silkeborg and they won’t be unlucky forever.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg

Friday 28/10 20.15

FC Nordsjælland have had a good period recently, although they were very lucky to leave Aalborg with one point last weekend as they were under heavy pressure. Not new scenarios for FC Nordsjælland, as they always tend to be significantly weaker away than at home. I think the artificial home pitch makes a huge difference and gives them a stronger home advantage than most other teams. FC Nordsjælland have a very young squad, so it is natural that they will be a bit inconsistent in performances. However, it looks like young striker Ingvartsen who has scored 8 goals in 14 matches, is quite difficult to control at the moment. Furthermore, FC Nordsjælland have called up veterans Mtiliga and Mikkelsen that both returns from injury breaks. Regular right back Bartolec misses the match with injury. Viborg have had a terrible run. They are without a win in 5 matches and they have generally looked poor since losing winger Thychosen to injury 9 games ago. My thesis is that Viborg suffer when they don’t have four serious offensive threats (the three fit ones: Deble, Park and Kamper) as it is too easy for the opponents to contain otherwise. Defensively, Viborg also have some issues. They just conceded three goals against Silkeborg on home turf, and left back Thorsen left the match injured. He is doubtful here, and the same is the case for central midfielder Keller. The issue on the central midfield is extra concerning given that central midfielder Fochive is banned. Should Keller and Thorsen miss out, I think Viborg look very fragile as their squad depth is already under heavy pressure due to many injuries (they have even called up two U19 and one U17 player). So due to the strong home field, better form and brighter squad situation, I think FC Nordsjælland are worth a shot here. Value down to 2.00.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.09 at SBOBet

Lyngby-Randers

Saturday 29/10 16.00

Lyngby have really done well this season. They have won the last four home matches without even conceding, even against some really good opponents. I have mentioned several times that I think they have been really lucky. They have been super-efficient and managed to score on a lot of long-range efforts, which is not a solid foundation for long-term success. Nevertheless, you cannot disregard that confidence makes teams grow, and this seems to be happening to Lyngby. They were better than expected against SønderjyskE last weekend, and the squad situation is really good without important absences. Randers lost the first away match season to Horsens last weekend in a match, they probably should have won, but they were inefficient. Randers have a solid looking squad with a strong attack and their current 5th position seem fair compared to their underlying stats.

I have been backing Lyngby’s opponent several times lately without success. I am not going to do to that here. Lyngby looked strong in the last home match and they have a lot of confidence. Randers are a solid side, and perhaps to be slim favourites here, but I think value is shifting towards Lyngby. 

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.77 at Pinnacle

SønderjyskE-Horsens

Sunday 30/10 13.00

SønderjyskE had won five in a row until the streak ended in Lyngby with a 2-0 loss last weekend. SønderjyskE have been looking quite strong, although the last match was rather poor. However, SønderjyskE were without some quality players and some of them should return here: winger Absalonsen and right back Pedersen. They will probably still be without winger Kroon, but apart from this, they should be able to field the strongest team. Horsens have had an outstanding season. They have won some tight matches and managed to get many draws. They are very compact and don’t want the ball. They play very direct and rely on set pieces too. They have been the most efficient team in the league in front of goal, and I don’t think they can continue to rely so much on good finishing. I have them ranked as the second luckiest side in the season. However, they are field with confidence at the moment, so they might be playing a bit better than their actual quality.

SønderjyskE are a stronger side, but Horsens have a lot of confidence at the moment. Furthermore, SønderjyskE are a team that often suffer when having to dictate the match – they prefer matches where they have space to counter, which probably won’t be the case here. However, should SønderjyskE take the lead, it could be difficult for Horsens to get back. No bet for me at current odds, but if you forced me, I would pick Horsens.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.94 at Pinnacle

Brøndby-AaB
Sunday 30/10 16.00

Brøndby have lost power lately. They have not been as dominant in the last matches, and the head coach have also said that some players are starting to look tired. Brøndby are practicing a demanding high-pressure strategy – it worked excellently at the start of the season, but it seem to have taken its toll. Brøndby rested some of the key players in the last match as they had underperformed for a period. I expect them to return here and it will be interesting to see if they can find the level that made them so strong at the start of the season. No information about important absences. AaB are on a poor run if you look at the results – only one win in the last seven matches. However, I notice that they have delivered improving performances lately. They should have won last weekend against FC Nordsjælland where they hit the cross bar three times. They have also seemed quite strong away against the league’s better opponents. They are the only team to take a point away against FC Copenhagen, while they also deserved a point against FC Midtjylland two weeks ago, where FC Midtjylland won due to being quite efficient. AaB continue to have some injury issues – winger Flores and attacker Enevoldsen are still out.

Brøndby are typically a strong home side and they also have more quality in the squad than AaB. However, form seems to be pointing in different direction, and if it continues that way, AaB have a good chance of earning something here. I like the conservative +1 line, but the price is too short for a recommendation.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.71 at Pinnacle

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 30/10 18.00

FC Midtjylland have won the last two matches, but they have not really impressed me in the process. They have a quality squad, but they are not producing according to expectations. I think, they lack some team spirit – several players are working primarily for own success. The squad situation is pretty good – winger Wikheim and central midfielder van der Vaart could return after missing the last league match. FC Copenhagen are a level above the rest in the Superliga. I think they have been performing a bit under level in the last Superliga matches (including the 3-0 win at OB, where FC Copenhagen were just efficient), but some of the reasons could be focus on Champions League and taking matches against weaker Superliga teams a bit too easy. I am sure they will line-up in the strongest formation here (no reported injuries) and very focused, as this match is important for the title. FC Copenhagen have met FC Midtjylland three times in 2016 and won all three.

I think FC Copenhagen will arrive here to prove that they are indeed the strongest side in the league. I think they are significantly better than FC Midtjylland, and I don’t see FC Copenhagen losing here. Draw could happen as this could satisfy both teams. Therefore, I think it is necessary to insure fully against the draw. Value down to 1.54.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) -1.64 at Unibet

AGF-Esbjerg

Monday 31/10 19.00

AGF have been in pretty poor form lately. They are without a win in six games, but I don’t think they have been so bad in reality. They have been pretty average and just not managed to win some tight matches. AGF have also had some injury problems, but the situation is looking much brighter for this match. Key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen returns from injury and the same is the case for left back Juelgård. Only important absence is midfielder Olsen who continues to be absent. AGF have struggled a lot defensively, where they don’t need to concede many shots on target per goal (only Silkeborg are worse). Goalkeeper Jovanovic does not impress me and he also conceded a simple goal in the last match. Esbjerg appear to be the weakest team in the league currently. They have not won in eight league games and they have been pretty abysmal in several matches. They lack confidence and quality, but they have also been heavily hit by injuries. This is also the case here, where the versatile Paulsen (expected to play back here) is newest addition to the injury list that also contains key midfielder Andersen, right back Laursen and left back Lauridsen. Fortunately, some players have returned for this match: speedy striker Mensah and left back Jessen. However, many players have been struggling with minor injuries (central defender Nordvik and central midfielder Palsson) or sickness (goalkeeper Højbjerg and right back Hagelskjær), so it will be interesting if Esbjerg line-up with the strongest formation based on the called squad.

A lot of squad news for both teams and still some uncertainties, so this is really a difficult match to price. AGF seem a bit too big favourites here, they have not won in a long time, but they could potentially be close to the strongest formation, which will make life a lot easier for them. On the other hand, I can see Esbjerg having major problems scoring here. They are not strong offensively without the assist-maker Andersen. Esbjerg not scoring could be interesting. They are yet to score more than one goal away from home this season.

Idea: Esbjerg under 0.75 goals – 2.20 at Pinnacle