Week 13 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-Viborg

Friday 14/10 18.00

SønderjyskE are in great form with four wins in a row. They have played fairly well at times, but also had some luck. One thing that is particularly noteworthy is that three of these wins have been away from home. If you look at past seasons, SønderjyskE are a team that in most seasons have earned more points away from home. It is not just a coincidence as SønderjyskE like to sit back and counter, which is more difficult to rely on in home matches, where you are expected to dominate. SønderjyskE can potentially welcome back key winger Absalonsen from injury, although I doubt he will be in the starting line-up after an injury break. Viborg are a bit like SønderjyskE. They are also a counter-team that like the away games (2 wins away in 5 matches, 1 home win in 7 matches). Viborg have had some injury issues during the season, but are set to welcome back rotation player Frederiksen here. They are still missing some important long-term injured players, but they still have a good dose of speed in front with Deble and Park, and a quite solid defence (4th in fewest conceded shots from the penalty box).

SønderjyskE seem to be in great form, but this is the kind of matches, where they could struggle. Viborg will sit back and use their offensive pace to attack them. I would go for the away side here, but stakes low as SønderjyskE have momentum at the moment.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.79 at Pinnacle

AGF-Horsens

Friday 14/10 20.15

AGF have 1 point in the last 4 matches. I think they have been a bit unlucky not to earn more points, but they are quite volatile in the level of performance. They have also had a number of absences, and this will again be the case. This time it is the banned right back Mikanovic and defensive midfielder Pedersen, while winger Ikonomides and central defender Soares also misses out. None of these players are vital, but all could well have been in the starting line-up if ready. AGF should be able to field a decent line-up nevertheless, but they have some serious issues defensively, where the opponents don’t need many chances to score. New goalkeeper Jovanovic has not done much to prove he is better than veteran Rasmussen. Horsens have had a lot of success for a promoted club. I think they have been quite lucky. They have a shots on target ratio of only 41%, but have won more matches than they have lost, mainly due to quality (or lucky) finishing. I don’t think Horsens can continue being as successful without creating more chances. However, it is important to acknowledge that Horsens are hard-working and difficult to break down. They are committed and they will arrive to defend. Horsens will be without banned striker Bjerregaard, but he was probably risking to be benched anyway as team top goalscorer Finnbogason deserves a chance in front after being a super-sub several times.

AGF have been without success in several matches and they will be without several players here. They are better than Horsens, but they seem vulnerable at the back. On the other hand, Horsens are difficult to break down and will arrive with a compact defence here in order to make life difficult for AGF. I like Horsens to get something here, and I think there should be value down to 1.95.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.07 at SBOBet

FC Copenhagen-Silkeborg

Saturday 15/10 18.30

FC Copenhagen are the best team in the league and I have them as massive favourites to take the title this season. They have not lost a match this season and they have looked like the strongest team in every match played this season (probably apart from the away game at Brøndby). They are 12-1-0 at home in the league in 2016. Furthermore, strong striker Santander returns from injury here. FC Copenhagen will be without solid centra back Zanka who is banned here, but I don’t think his absence will mean much in a match FC Copenhagen are set to dominate heavily. Silkeborg have not lost in the last five league games and they are feeling confident after a very poor start to the season. Nevertheless, they are still a fairly average team and I find it difficult to see how they should threaten FC Copenhagen here. Silkeborg played 120 minutes in a midweek cup match, but after a week without matches, it should not be a big problem.

If you had asked me at the start of the season, I would have said that this was the most certain home win in the season. Despite Silkeborg’s improved form, I still think it is. FC Copenhagen are just so much stronger in every position. FC Copenhagen should win this by at least two goals here, which they have also done in 9 out of the 13 home games in 2016.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1.5) – 1.67 at Pinnacle

Randers-OB

Sunday 16/10 13.00

Randers have had a fine start to the season and I think the current position in top 6 reflects their true level. They have struggled a bit with consistency, and had a few some rather poor matches, but they are mostly a solid team with a strong attack. Furthermore, the injury situation is starting to brighten with key defender Fenger returning from injury. I think Randers need some matches with the same line-up in order to really reach their maximum. In attack, they have some interesting names in Ishak and Pourie, which is set to be a handful for OB’s back line. OB have had a bad season. They were unlucky in the early matches of the season, but lately I just think they have been poor – although they actually won the last match without impressing. OB have some injury issues with striker Festersen injured, while central defender Tverskov and goalkeeper Grytebust being doubtful. Key central midfielder Makrini is expected to be back here. Looking at the expected line-up, OB should be able to field a decent line-up, and they will hope the win in last round can start a positive period.

Randers like to play OB, they have won four out of the last five matches, and they also look stronger at the moment. However, OB have a team with potential and they should start to do better at some point. Nevertheless, I think there is still room for a bit of value on Randers here. Slim value though, so I will only make it an idea pick.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 2.025 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby

Sunday 16/10 16.00

FC Nordsjælland have found some form after a rather poor start to the season. They have not lost in the last three matches, but it has also been against three of the weakest opponents in the league. FC Nordsjælland have the youngest team in the league and they have sometimes seemed mentally fragile. They are technically good and have a strong striker in Ingvartsen who seems to be very confident at the moment. Brøndby have been very strong this season, but have not been as dominant in the latest matches. They play a very aggressive and demanding style so the break could have come in handy for some players. Defensively, they have some problems, as they seem to give away too many chances in their own box (rank 13th in percentage of shots conceded from own box). They need to be better to make opponents shoot from the distance, but the positive thing is that they rank 1st in total shots conceded, which I find quite impressive.

I think Brøndby are significantly better than FC Nordsjælland here. They are also a team that usually likes to play here, since they bring a lot of fans, so it does not feel as a typical away match. The question is the price. Is it too low? Probably, Brøndby have not delivered the best performances recently and FC Nordsjælland seem to have found some confidence.

Idea: 1 (AH +1) – 1.78 at SBOBet

FC Midtjylland-AaB

Sunday 16/10 18.00

FC Midtjylland have not delivered consistent performances this season. One week, they look like a top team, the next they lose to a promoted club without creating much. Overall, however, I think they are the 3rd best side in the league, which is also what stats suggest. They have a SoTR of 62%, which is quite impressive and they are good at getting shots fired in the rivals penalty box. When it comes to the squad, the situation is also quiet good as van der Vaart is set to return after injury. AaB have not been as impressive. They won many tight matches at the start of the season, which raised the expectations. However, AaB have not been particularly good at any time this season, so it is only natural that they have started to fade when it comes to results. AaB have lost 4 of the last 5 league games. I am unsure about the squad quality as they made many changes in the summer break (best players left, new interesting players bought), but until now, I don’t think the new AaB look as strong as the old AaB. AaB only have a SoTR of 44%, which suggests that they deserve to be in the lower half of the table. AaB will welcome back strong left back Ahlmann from injury. Attacker Enevoldsen is still injured, while winger Flores just arrived from international duty for Peru and might not be fully rested.

FC Midtjylland are a stronger side than AaB at the moment, and they are usually quite strong at home (8-5-1 in 2016). I think they should have the power to dominate AaB here, but I will only an idea pick at the current price as FC Midtjylland have lacked stability.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.80 at SBOBet

Esbjerg-Lyngby

Monday 17/10 19.00

Esbjerg are really bad at the moment. They just got knocked out of the cup after losing to 3rd tier club (1-0) despite fielding almost the strongest possible team. They are weak in all areas and they are suffering from poor confidence and injuries. Most important absence is central midfielder Jeppe Andersen who is the creative force of Esbjerg. Without him, they look fairly limited in terms of the supply from midfield. Furthermore, right back Laursen left the cup match with an injury, while goalkeeper Højbjerg is doubtful. Esbjerg have a SoTR of only 29%, which is by far the lowest in the league and it is no coincidence that they are placed last. Lyngby have had a lot of success. They have won the last four matches 1-0. They have been incredible effective, and you cannot expect it to last, but they are still more productive than Esbjerg at the moment. They have a solid defensive base and some confident offensive players, but most importantly: they have a really good attitude. To a comparison, Lyngby hold a SoTR of 39%. Not impressive, but still way better than Esbjerg.

Esbjerg are looking incredibly poor at the moment. They were not able to knock out a 3rd tier team in midweek, and they are without their best player here. Lyngby have lots of confidence after four consecutive wins and although I think they have been very lucky lately, I still regard them as significantly better than Esbjerg at the moment.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 1.79 at SBOBet
UPDATE: Esbjerg striker Mensah is also injured. Not good for the home team, as I only see Esbjerg having two offensive players capable of creating something extraordinary: Mensah and Andersen - both are out here.