Week 14 Superliga previews

AaB-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 21/10 18.00

AaB has not impressed me this season. At the start of the season, they got a lot of points mainly through slim wins in even matches. Then followed a period with quite fair defeats. Lately, they have started to play better, but they have still lost. Their performance last weekend against FC Midtjylland was quite good, so AaB will hope to continue from that here. They have some offensive injury issues. Offensive players Flores and Enevoldsen are out with injuries, so AaB look a little shorthanded in attack. FC Nordsjælland have played well lately after a poor start to the season. After being quite critical towards the young age of the team at the start of the season, I am starting to see some potential. They have a fairly interesting attack, where Ingvartsen looks like a quality striker and Donyoh is finding form. The midfield seems to be the weak spot here, and they risk being dominated. However, if they are forced back, this will increase the potential for dangerous counter-attacks against AaB’s rather slow defence.

FC Nordsjælland have better fundamental stats and in better form, so they have good chances of earning something here. The reason for this pick only being an idea is that the price is a bit on the short side if you consider that FC Nordsjællland are notoriously poor away from home, while AaB usually are a solid home side.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.00 at Bet365

Viborg-Silkeborg

Friday 21/10 20.15

Viborg have not had the best period and they are without a win in four matches. They have not scored in these matches and actually only managed to get five shots on target in these 360 minutes. What is wrong? Well, I think they are still struggling to find the optimal solution in the central midfield, while the injury for winger Thychosen surely has effected the offensive strength. Another problem is that strikers Deble and Park take many shots, but too often miss the target. Defensively, I think Viborg are quite good. They do not concede many chances (ranked 4th on conceded shots from own penalty box). Central midfielder Fochive is banned, but I don’t think he is significantly better than the alternatives. Silkeborg are in solid form. Yes, they lost the most difficult match of the season away against FC Copenhagen last weekend (2-0), but I think they performed fairly well and did not allow many chances. Before that Silkeborg had not lost in five league matches. Although, I don’t think their material is spectacular, they are very focused and confident at the moment. An injury situation is also helping after a miserable start to the season. Silkeborg lost 1-5 to Viborg at the start of the season, but it was two teams in totally different form than now.

Viborg have really struggled lately and against a compact Silkeborg side, I think they can struggle to create anything dangerous. Viborg like to counter-attack and this might explain why they earn the most points away from home (only 1 home win in 7 games this season). Silkeborg have decent fundamental stats and are confident and without important injuries. I would expect them to earn something here 50% of the time.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.10 at Pinnacle

Lyngby-SønderjyskE

Saturday 22/10 16.00

Lyngby ended an impressive winning streak (4 1-0 wins in a row) by dropping a 2-0 lead against bottom side Esbjerg on Monday. For once, Lyngby lacked some luck as they were slightly better than Esbjerg throughout the match, but allowed two goals from set pieces. However, the matches prior (the 1-0 wins) were all quite lucky if you ask me (just look at the xG models). Lyngby are a promoted side that works hard and do a fine job. However, they are, despite the position, nothing spectacular. They have scored 6 out of 14 goals from outside the box (crazy statistic) and in total they have been extremely efficient. Their shots on target ratio (SoTR) are only 42%, but despite of this they are in top of the league. I have them marked as the luckiest team in the league and only see them fade in the future. SønderjyskE have won five matches in a row and generally looked quite strong (although they have had a bit of luck on the way too). They are also a hard working team, which catapulted them to a stunning second place last season. They were a bit lucky then, but still had pretty good fundamental stats. This season they have a SoTR of 50% this season, but this include a rather weak start to the season where focus was on Europa League. SønderjyskE have some injury issues on the flanks, where Absalonsen and Kroon were missing in the last match, and it is still uncertain whether they return here. Both are quality players, so it would be good additions. Right back Pedersen miss the match with a ban, but is replaced by Rodrigues who is a decent back-up.

A very lucky promoted side against number 2 from last season who are in outstanding form. Sorry, I just can’t make Lyngby favourites here. If Absalonsen and Kroon return, I would even make SønderjyskE favourites here. Even if they should miss out, I think there is decent value here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 2.21 at Pinnacle

Horsens-Randers

Sunday 23/10 14.00

Horsens have had a brilliant season so far. The promoted side was expected to finish 13th or 14th, but are currently 7th and have only lost 3 out of 13 matches. They are a really devoted team and they play quite physical. They don’t want the ball and they average way lower ball possession per game than every other team in the league (39%). However, after all my praising words, I must admit I find them to be one of the luckiest sides in the league. They hold the highest scoring percentage in the league, which I doubt they will be able to remain, while their saving rate is also above the league average. Looking at their SoTR, they are 12th with only 41%. They are 2nd poorest in the league in conceded shots from the penalty box. With so poor fundamental stats, I don’t see them maintaining the 7th place in the long run. Striker Bjerregaard returns from ban, but it is doubtful he will get a starting role. Key central defender Sanneh (with 4 goals this season) left the last match with a knee injury, but has said that he expects to be back here. However, should he miss the match, it will severely hurt Horsens chances as he is probably their best player. Randers have had a good season and the current 4th place seem in line with their fundamental stats. They have a SoTR of 56%, which is quite high. They look very good in attack, where they have many dangerous options (Pourie, George and Ishak), while they are decent defensively. The squad situation is good with only rotation players Lundberg and Fischer out.

I think the betting markets are overestimating Horsens based on their good start to the season in terms of points. They have been cynical and you cannot expect this too continue. Randers have done well this season and I see them as a top 5 team in the league currently. Danish readers can enjoy the generous 2.30 for Randers at Danske Spil, while I will recommend the more safe -0.25 line here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.95 at SBOBet

OB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 23/10 16.00

OB are in a big crisis at the moment. They have lost 6 out of the last 7 Superliga games and they were just knocked out of the cup (this Wednesday) to a 2nd tier club. They cannot get their game going and they are struggling to create something offensively after Rasmus Falk left for FC Copenhagen in the summer break. OB are massively underperforming expectations, and some of it is bad luck, but it is mostly just poor quality. They have also struggled a bit with injuries and they are expected to be without striker Festersen again here as well as back Desler. FC Copenhagen are so strong and it is not so surprising that they are yet to lose in the league. They have an excellent squad and even the reserves could earn a top 3 spot in the league. FC Copenhagen have struggled a bit in games after Champions League matches this season, where they have not found the best level. The squad situation is looking very good though, and with a less important cup match in the upcoming midweek; I think FC Copenhagen won’t rest any of the key players here.

OB are struggling offensively and FC Copenhagen have looked a bit below usual level after Champions League matches. Looking at the stats, the last five times the two teams have met in Odense, it has been with less than 2.5 goals. Furthermore, both teams have most gone under the line in home games (OB) and away games (FC Copenhagen) this season. In that light, I find the price for few goals good. Alternatively, I think OB not to score at 2.10 is interesting.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.12 at SBOBet

Brøndby-AGF

Sunday 23/10 18.00

Brøndby have started to struggle a bit after a terrific start to the season. They only have one win in the last five matches. They surely deserved more points in this period, but it does not change that they are far from as dominant as they were earlier this season. I am still impressed by their aggressive style and their ability to create chances, and AGF should expect to come under pressure here. The squad situation is good, but it is a concern that league top goalscorer Pukki is not on form at the moment (were subbed at half time in the last match). AGF have had a disappointing season. Hardly surprising given the many changes they have made in the squad – they need time. Furthermore, they have constantly been hampered by injuries, so it has been hard to get some consistency. For this match, right back Mikanovic and central midfielder Pedersen returns from bans, while winger Ikonimides should also return. Thus, we should expect to see AGF in best formation here, although best formation still has some clear issues, especially defensively where they concede goals too easily.

Brøndby have more quality and they should dominate here, but I don’t expect them to dominate massively, so AGF have a decent chance of getting something here. I think AGF will arrive with a cautious approach (they lost 7-0 the last time they faced Brøndby and they don’t want a repetition), and I think the over/under line is quite high. I will go for the under here.

Idea: Under 3 goals – 1.86 at Unibet

Esbjerg-FC Midtjylland

Monday 24/10 19.00

Esbjerg have been very poor this season. They are the dead last based on SoTR, and there looking at their games it is difficult to find optimism. They are struggling with injuries for key players; central midfielder Andersen, striker Mensah and right back Laursen. Head coach Todd has looked like someone ready to give up after Esbjerg’s humiliating defeat in the cup to a 3rd tier club. However, Esbjerg got a good experience in the past round, where they manage to come back from 0-2 at half-time to get 2-2 against Lyngby through two goals on set pieces. Honestly, I find it difficult to see Esbjerg scoring from other sources without the creative Andersen and the speedy Mensah. FC Midtjylland have had a decent season. They have a lot of quality in the squad, but they struggle a bit with the consistency. They were not good against AaB in the last round, but won 2-0 anyway. Strong defender Hansen left the match with an injury and could be out here. FC Midtjylland are a top 3 team and will arrive here to take a win. They will like the historic head-to-head statistic: FC Midtjylland are without a league defeat to Esbjerg in 11 games.

Esbjerg have probably earned some confidence last weekend and FC Midtjylland have been rather inconsistent, but looking at current squad quality, FC Midtjylland should win this.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.72 at Unibet