Week 15 Superliga round-ups

The winning streak ended after four winning rounds. However, if you are only here for the recommendations, it was an excellent round with both winning. It has been an excellent season for all recommendations: yield is at +28%! We had one very good spot for the weekend, while the Tip of the Week eventually increased a bit in odds. The ideas had mainly dropping odds too, so seem to be ahead of the market with the picks.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg 1 -0.25

Our pick: 2.09

Closing odds: 1.88

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.64

Closing odds: 1.65

Week 15 Superliga previews

Silkeborg-OB

Friday 28/10 18.00

Silkeborg are in great form at the moment and just had a nice 3-1 win in Viborg. They were efficient, but they are starting to produce more offensively, while looking a bit better at the back, although I regard them as quite fragile. Only injury is rotation midfielder Agger, so the situation is quite good. OB are in terrible shape, having only won 1 out of the last 9 league games. OB have had some pretty poor matches and they have also underperformed significantly compared to expectations. However, it is also important to acknowledge that OB have been really unlucky. I currently have them ranked as the most unlucky team in the league. The main problem is offensive inefficiency, quite surprising given that they have one of the best finishers in striker Jacobsen. OB have had 122 shots from the penalty box and only managed to score 9 times. Under normal circumstances, you would expect that to yield 19 goals. Just consider how much 10 additional goals would have moved them in the league table. I am pretty sure we would not be talking about a crisis. OB will be without strong central midfielder Makrini who is banned. He is usually very important for OB, so a big loss. Rotation midfielder Greve is also out, but regular attacker Festersen is set to return from injury.

Silkeborg are having some momentum at the moment, while OB are suffering. However, I am still a bit sceptical regarding Silkeborg. Are they really as good as the recent matches suggest? Remember, they were number one candidate for relegation just a few weeks ago. OB have a stronger squad, but have been very unlucky. Confidence is important in football, but I would back OB here. I think they are better than Silkeborg and they won’t be unlucky forever.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg

Friday 28/10 20.15

FC Nordsjælland have had a good period recently, although they were very lucky to leave Aalborg with one point last weekend as they were under heavy pressure. Not new scenarios for FC Nordsjælland, as they always tend to be significantly weaker away than at home. I think the artificial home pitch makes a huge difference and gives them a stronger home advantage than most other teams. FC Nordsjælland have a very young squad, so it is natural that they will be a bit inconsistent in performances. However, it looks like young striker Ingvartsen who has scored 8 goals in 14 matches, is quite difficult to control at the moment. Furthermore, FC Nordsjælland have called up veterans Mtiliga and Mikkelsen that both returns from injury breaks. Regular right back Bartolec misses the match with injury. Viborg have had a terrible run. They are without a win in 5 matches and they have generally looked poor since losing winger Thychosen to injury 9 games ago. My thesis is that Viborg suffer when they don’t have four serious offensive threats (the three fit ones: Deble, Park and Kamper) as it is too easy for the opponents to contain otherwise. Defensively, Viborg also have some issues. They just conceded three goals against Silkeborg on home turf, and left back Thorsen left the match injured. He is doubtful here, and the same is the case for central midfielder Keller. The issue on the central midfield is extra concerning given that central midfielder Fochive is banned. Should Keller and Thorsen miss out, I think Viborg look very fragile as their squad depth is already under heavy pressure due to many injuries (they have even called up two U19 and one U17 player). So due to the strong home field, better form and brighter squad situation, I think FC Nordsjælland are worth a shot here. Value down to 2.00.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.09 at SBOBet

Lyngby-Randers

Saturday 29/10 16.00

Lyngby have really done well this season. They have won the last four home matches without even conceding, even against some really good opponents. I have mentioned several times that I think they have been really lucky. They have been super-efficient and managed to score on a lot of long-range efforts, which is not a solid foundation for long-term success. Nevertheless, you cannot disregard that confidence makes teams grow, and this seems to be happening to Lyngby. They were better than expected against SønderjyskE last weekend, and the squad situation is really good without important absences. Randers lost the first away match season to Horsens last weekend in a match, they probably should have won, but they were inefficient. Randers have a solid looking squad with a strong attack and their current 5th position seem fair compared to their underlying stats.

I have been backing Lyngby’s opponent several times lately without success. I am not going to do to that here. Lyngby looked strong in the last home match and they have a lot of confidence. Randers are a solid side, and perhaps to be slim favourites here, but I think value is shifting towards Lyngby. 

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.77 at Pinnacle

SønderjyskE-Horsens

Sunday 30/10 13.00

SønderjyskE had won five in a row until the streak ended in Lyngby with a 2-0 loss last weekend. SønderjyskE have been looking quite strong, although the last match was rather poor. However, SønderjyskE were without some quality players and some of them should return here: winger Absalonsen and right back Pedersen. They will probably still be without winger Kroon, but apart from this, they should be able to field the strongest team. Horsens have had an outstanding season. They have won some tight matches and managed to get many draws. They are very compact and don’t want the ball. They play very direct and rely on set pieces too. They have been the most efficient team in the league in front of goal, and I don’t think they can continue to rely so much on good finishing. I have them ranked as the second luckiest side in the season. However, they are field with confidence at the moment, so they might be playing a bit better than their actual quality.

SønderjyskE are a stronger side, but Horsens have a lot of confidence at the moment. Furthermore, SønderjyskE are a team that often suffer when having to dictate the match – they prefer matches where they have space to counter, which probably won’t be the case here. However, should SønderjyskE take the lead, it could be difficult for Horsens to get back. No bet for me at current odds, but if you forced me, I would pick Horsens.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.94 at Pinnacle

Brøndby-AaB
Sunday 30/10 16.00

Brøndby have lost power lately. They have not been as dominant in the last matches, and the head coach have also said that some players are starting to look tired. Brøndby are practicing a demanding high-pressure strategy – it worked excellently at the start of the season, but it seem to have taken its toll. Brøndby rested some of the key players in the last match as they had underperformed for a period. I expect them to return here and it will be interesting to see if they can find the level that made them so strong at the start of the season. No information about important absences. AaB are on a poor run if you look at the results – only one win in the last seven matches. However, I notice that they have delivered improving performances lately. They should have won last weekend against FC Nordsjælland where they hit the cross bar three times. They have also seemed quite strong away against the league’s better opponents. They are the only team to take a point away against FC Copenhagen, while they also deserved a point against FC Midtjylland two weeks ago, where FC Midtjylland won due to being quite efficient. AaB continue to have some injury issues – winger Flores and attacker Enevoldsen are still out.

Brøndby are typically a strong home side and they also have more quality in the squad than AaB. However, form seems to be pointing in different direction, and if it continues that way, AaB have a good chance of earning something here. I like the conservative +1 line, but the price is too short for a recommendation.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.71 at Pinnacle

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 30/10 18.00

FC Midtjylland have won the last two matches, but they have not really impressed me in the process. They have a quality squad, but they are not producing according to expectations. I think, they lack some team spirit – several players are working primarily for own success. The squad situation is pretty good – winger Wikheim and central midfielder van der Vaart could return after missing the last league match. FC Copenhagen are a level above the rest in the Superliga. I think they have been performing a bit under level in the last Superliga matches (including the 3-0 win at OB, where FC Copenhagen were just efficient), but some of the reasons could be focus on Champions League and taking matches against weaker Superliga teams a bit too easy. I am sure they will line-up in the strongest formation here (no reported injuries) and very focused, as this match is important for the title. FC Copenhagen have met FC Midtjylland three times in 2016 and won all three.

I think FC Copenhagen will arrive here to prove that they are indeed the strongest side in the league. I think they are significantly better than FC Midtjylland, and I don’t see FC Copenhagen losing here. Draw could happen as this could satisfy both teams. Therefore, I think it is necessary to insure fully against the draw. Value down to 1.54.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) -1.64 at Unibet

AGF-Esbjerg

Monday 31/10 19.00

AGF have been in pretty poor form lately. They are without a win in six games, but I don’t think they have been so bad in reality. They have been pretty average and just not managed to win some tight matches. AGF have also had some injury problems, but the situation is looking much brighter for this match. Key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen returns from injury and the same is the case for left back Juelgård. Only important absence is midfielder Olsen who continues to be absent. AGF have struggled a lot defensively, where they don’t need to concede many shots on target per goal (only Silkeborg are worse). Goalkeeper Jovanovic does not impress me and he also conceded a simple goal in the last match. Esbjerg appear to be the weakest team in the league currently. They have not won in eight league games and they have been pretty abysmal in several matches. They lack confidence and quality, but they have also been heavily hit by injuries. This is also the case here, where the versatile Paulsen (expected to play back here) is newest addition to the injury list that also contains key midfielder Andersen, right back Laursen and left back Lauridsen. Fortunately, some players have returned for this match: speedy striker Mensah and left back Jessen. However, many players have been struggling with minor injuries (central defender Nordvik and central midfielder Palsson) or sickness (goalkeeper Højbjerg and right back Hagelskjær), so it will be interesting if Esbjerg line-up with the strongest formation based on the called squad.

A lot of squad news for both teams and still some uncertainties, so this is really a difficult match to price. AGF seem a bit too big favourites here, they have not won in a long time, but they could potentially be close to the strongest formation, which will make life a lot easier for them. On the other hand, I can see Esbjerg having major problems scoring here. They are not strong offensively without the assist-maker Andersen. Esbjerg not scoring could be interesting. They are yet to score more than one goal away from home this season.

Idea: Esbjerg under 0.75 goals – 2.20 at Pinnacle

Week 14 round-up

Another profitable round - 4th in a row. Yield for the season is 15%, so it is going really well. Annoyed by the lack of success for the Tip of the Week lately (no winner in the last five rounds), and it needs to turn around soon. Success this week mainly for the ideas, which is not where you ideally want the success - but it has been a terrific season for the recommendations so we can't complain after one poor week. Excellent spots for the recommendations this week despite the limited success. Decided to post bets a bit earlier and it is without a doubt easier to beat the market, but also means that less will be able to follow the bets at the best prices. Dilemma.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Viborg-Silkeborg 2 +0.5

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 1.85

Lyngby-SønderjyskE 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.21

Closing odds: 2.19

Horsens-Randers 2 -0.25

Our pick: 1.95

Closing odds: 1.88

OB-FC Copenhagen Under 2.5

Our pick: 2.12

Closing odds: 1.93

Week 14 Superliga previews

AaB-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 21/10 18.00

AaB has not impressed me this season. At the start of the season, they got a lot of points mainly through slim wins in even matches. Then followed a period with quite fair defeats. Lately, they have started to play better, but they have still lost. Their performance last weekend against FC Midtjylland was quite good, so AaB will hope to continue from that here. They have some offensive injury issues. Offensive players Flores and Enevoldsen are out with injuries, so AaB look a little shorthanded in attack. FC Nordsjælland have played well lately after a poor start to the season. After being quite critical towards the young age of the team at the start of the season, I am starting to see some potential. They have a fairly interesting attack, where Ingvartsen looks like a quality striker and Donyoh is finding form. The midfield seems to be the weak spot here, and they risk being dominated. However, if they are forced back, this will increase the potential for dangerous counter-attacks against AaB’s rather slow defence.

FC Nordsjælland have better fundamental stats and in better form, so they have good chances of earning something here. The reason for this pick only being an idea is that the price is a bit on the short side if you consider that FC Nordsjællland are notoriously poor away from home, while AaB usually are a solid home side.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.00 at Bet365

Viborg-Silkeborg

Friday 21/10 20.15

Viborg have not had the best period and they are without a win in four matches. They have not scored in these matches and actually only managed to get five shots on target in these 360 minutes. What is wrong? Well, I think they are still struggling to find the optimal solution in the central midfield, while the injury for winger Thychosen surely has effected the offensive strength. Another problem is that strikers Deble and Park take many shots, but too often miss the target. Defensively, I think Viborg are quite good. They do not concede many chances (ranked 4th on conceded shots from own penalty box). Central midfielder Fochive is banned, but I don’t think he is significantly better than the alternatives. Silkeborg are in solid form. Yes, they lost the most difficult match of the season away against FC Copenhagen last weekend (2-0), but I think they performed fairly well and did not allow many chances. Before that Silkeborg had not lost in five league matches. Although, I don’t think their material is spectacular, they are very focused and confident at the moment. An injury situation is also helping after a miserable start to the season. Silkeborg lost 1-5 to Viborg at the start of the season, but it was two teams in totally different form than now.

Viborg have really struggled lately and against a compact Silkeborg side, I think they can struggle to create anything dangerous. Viborg like to counter-attack and this might explain why they earn the most points away from home (only 1 home win in 7 games this season). Silkeborg have decent fundamental stats and are confident and without important injuries. I would expect them to earn something here 50% of the time.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.10 at Pinnacle

Lyngby-SønderjyskE

Saturday 22/10 16.00

Lyngby ended an impressive winning streak (4 1-0 wins in a row) by dropping a 2-0 lead against bottom side Esbjerg on Monday. For once, Lyngby lacked some luck as they were slightly better than Esbjerg throughout the match, but allowed two goals from set pieces. However, the matches prior (the 1-0 wins) were all quite lucky if you ask me (just look at the xG models). Lyngby are a promoted side that works hard and do a fine job. However, they are, despite the position, nothing spectacular. They have scored 6 out of 14 goals from outside the box (crazy statistic) and in total they have been extremely efficient. Their shots on target ratio (SoTR) are only 42%, but despite of this they are in top of the league. I have them marked as the luckiest team in the league and only see them fade in the future. SønderjyskE have won five matches in a row and generally looked quite strong (although they have had a bit of luck on the way too). They are also a hard working team, which catapulted them to a stunning second place last season. They were a bit lucky then, but still had pretty good fundamental stats. This season they have a SoTR of 50% this season, but this include a rather weak start to the season where focus was on Europa League. SønderjyskE have some injury issues on the flanks, where Absalonsen and Kroon were missing in the last match, and it is still uncertain whether they return here. Both are quality players, so it would be good additions. Right back Pedersen miss the match with a ban, but is replaced by Rodrigues who is a decent back-up.

A very lucky promoted side against number 2 from last season who are in outstanding form. Sorry, I just can’t make Lyngby favourites here. If Absalonsen and Kroon return, I would even make SønderjyskE favourites here. Even if they should miss out, I think there is decent value here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 2.21 at Pinnacle

Horsens-Randers

Sunday 23/10 14.00

Horsens have had a brilliant season so far. The promoted side was expected to finish 13th or 14th, but are currently 7th and have only lost 3 out of 13 matches. They are a really devoted team and they play quite physical. They don’t want the ball and they average way lower ball possession per game than every other team in the league (39%). However, after all my praising words, I must admit I find them to be one of the luckiest sides in the league. They hold the highest scoring percentage in the league, which I doubt they will be able to remain, while their saving rate is also above the league average. Looking at their SoTR, they are 12th with only 41%. They are 2nd poorest in the league in conceded shots from the penalty box. With so poor fundamental stats, I don’t see them maintaining the 7th place in the long run. Striker Bjerregaard returns from ban, but it is doubtful he will get a starting role. Key central defender Sanneh (with 4 goals this season) left the last match with a knee injury, but has said that he expects to be back here. However, should he miss the match, it will severely hurt Horsens chances as he is probably their best player. Randers have had a good season and the current 4th place seem in line with their fundamental stats. They have a SoTR of 56%, which is quite high. They look very good in attack, where they have many dangerous options (Pourie, George and Ishak), while they are decent defensively. The squad situation is good with only rotation players Lundberg and Fischer out.

I think the betting markets are overestimating Horsens based on their good start to the season in terms of points. They have been cynical and you cannot expect this too continue. Randers have done well this season and I see them as a top 5 team in the league currently. Danish readers can enjoy the generous 2.30 for Randers at Danske Spil, while I will recommend the more safe -0.25 line here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.95 at SBOBet

OB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 23/10 16.00

OB are in a big crisis at the moment. They have lost 6 out of the last 7 Superliga games and they were just knocked out of the cup (this Wednesday) to a 2nd tier club. They cannot get their game going and they are struggling to create something offensively after Rasmus Falk left for FC Copenhagen in the summer break. OB are massively underperforming expectations, and some of it is bad luck, but it is mostly just poor quality. They have also struggled a bit with injuries and they are expected to be without striker Festersen again here as well as back Desler. FC Copenhagen are so strong and it is not so surprising that they are yet to lose in the league. They have an excellent squad and even the reserves could earn a top 3 spot in the league. FC Copenhagen have struggled a bit in games after Champions League matches this season, where they have not found the best level. The squad situation is looking very good though, and with a less important cup match in the upcoming midweek; I think FC Copenhagen won’t rest any of the key players here.

OB are struggling offensively and FC Copenhagen have looked a bit below usual level after Champions League matches. Looking at the stats, the last five times the two teams have met in Odense, it has been with less than 2.5 goals. Furthermore, both teams have most gone under the line in home games (OB) and away games (FC Copenhagen) this season. In that light, I find the price for few goals good. Alternatively, I think OB not to score at 2.10 is interesting.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.12 at SBOBet

Brøndby-AGF

Sunday 23/10 18.00

Brøndby have started to struggle a bit after a terrific start to the season. They only have one win in the last five matches. They surely deserved more points in this period, but it does not change that they are far from as dominant as they were earlier this season. I am still impressed by their aggressive style and their ability to create chances, and AGF should expect to come under pressure here. The squad situation is good, but it is a concern that league top goalscorer Pukki is not on form at the moment (were subbed at half time in the last match). AGF have had a disappointing season. Hardly surprising given the many changes they have made in the squad – they need time. Furthermore, they have constantly been hampered by injuries, so it has been hard to get some consistency. For this match, right back Mikanovic and central midfielder Pedersen returns from bans, while winger Ikonimides should also return. Thus, we should expect to see AGF in best formation here, although best formation still has some clear issues, especially defensively where they concede goals too easily.

Brøndby have more quality and they should dominate here, but I don’t expect them to dominate massively, so AGF have a decent chance of getting something here. I think AGF will arrive with a cautious approach (they lost 7-0 the last time they faced Brøndby and they don’t want a repetition), and I think the over/under line is quite high. I will go for the under here.

Idea: Under 3 goals – 1.86 at Unibet

Esbjerg-FC Midtjylland

Monday 24/10 19.00

Esbjerg have been very poor this season. They are the dead last based on SoTR, and there looking at their games it is difficult to find optimism. They are struggling with injuries for key players; central midfielder Andersen, striker Mensah and right back Laursen. Head coach Todd has looked like someone ready to give up after Esbjerg’s humiliating defeat in the cup to a 3rd tier club. However, Esbjerg got a good experience in the past round, where they manage to come back from 0-2 at half-time to get 2-2 against Lyngby through two goals on set pieces. Honestly, I find it difficult to see Esbjerg scoring from other sources without the creative Andersen and the speedy Mensah. FC Midtjylland have had a decent season. They have a lot of quality in the squad, but they struggle a bit with the consistency. They were not good against AaB in the last round, but won 2-0 anyway. Strong defender Hansen left the match with an injury and could be out here. FC Midtjylland are a top 3 team and will arrive here to take a win. They will like the historic head-to-head statistic: FC Midtjylland are without a league defeat to Esbjerg in 11 games.

Esbjerg have probably earned some confidence last weekend and FC Midtjylland have been rather inconsistent, but looking at current squad quality, FC Midtjylland should win this.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.72 at Unibet