Week 7 Superliga previews

Randers-Silkeborg

Friday 26/8 18.00

Randers did not have the best match last weekend, but surely had the chances to win (1-1 at FC Nordsjælland). It was clear that they suffered in the centre of the pitch without their two normal central midfielders (Allansson and Poulsen) and they will both miss out here too. However, it is much easier to be dominated by FC Nordsjælland’s midfield than Silkeborg’s so it probably won’t be the same big issue here. Striker Ishak finally returns after a longer absence and he could add some firing power as Lundberg seems without confidence (missed a penalty and a huge chance in the last match). Silkeborg are really not poorly. They have been beaten heavily a few times and they are not playing with confidence. They give away easy chances and are not efficient on the chances they have. However, it is also important to note that they have the lowest scoring percentage and saving percentage – both numbers seem very low, and we should expect them to be a bit luckier in the future. However, they lack offensive power without the injured winger Skov, while they have goalkeeper issues as first choice Nørgaard is injured.

All Randers matches this season has been pretty tight – one goal as the maximum goal difference and it proves that they are solid but not creating fireworks. Silkeborg have had some pretty bad matches, but also managed two draws and three away games. I expect them to be very focused on the defensive aspect, which should make it difficult for Randers. I think under 2.5 goals could be interesting – I don’t see Randers winning as a good bet given the price.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.00 at SBOBet

Lyngby-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 26/8 20.15

Lyngby have done really well when looking at the table where they are placed in the top half, but if you look at their fundamental stats they are not so good. They don’t dominate their matches in terms of chances, they have a large portion of shots from outside the box and they have been incredibly efficient. Lyngby have scored on 45% of their shots on target, which is way above the league average. This should regress to the mean and if their shot production does not increase, they will start to lose matches. Squad-wise the situation is pretty good with winger Larsen returning from the Olympics and central defender Tauber returning from a minor injury. Lyngby have a fine side for a promoted club, but let us not forget that they are just that: a promoted club. FC Nordsjælland have had a tough start to the season. Injuries combined with the Olympic duty left their side pretty weak, but it has started to improve with defenders Maxsø and Gregor returning from the Olympics, while winger Mikkelsen is back from injury and other winger Asante has had a bit more time to adapt to his new club. FC Nordsjælland played well against Randers last week, and they are surely on the right track, but their start has also been really bad and their fundamental stats are not better than Lyngby – they have just not been as lucky.

I see this match as fairly even, maybe with Lyngby as a small favourite given the home advantage, but I really see Lyngby as overrated at the moment. Market has moved quite a bit already, but I still see some value in the away side.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.33 at Pinnacle

SønderjyskE-Esbjerg

Sunday 28/8 12.00

SønderjyskE were handed a tough blow on Thursday. They were up 2-0 against Sparta Prague and just had to avoid conceding three goals in order to clinch a remarkable Europa League group stage spot. However, destiny was cruel to SønderjyskE who played a good match, but conceded three goals from set pieces (something that SønderjyskE are normally excellent at containing) and were eliminated by a goal five minutes before the final whistle. It will be mentally tough to rebound here, especially due to their league efforts being in ruins due to the focus on Europa League. Players are also likely to be tired here and SønderjyskE could be without a few starters. Esbjerg are experiencing an improvement in form. They earned their first win in last round and this should really boost their confidence. They look stronger in the centre of the pitch with the return of Jeppe Andersen, but they still lack some power in defence and attack, although I am starting to see some potential in the new centre back Nordvik. Esbjerg will welcome back winger Mabil from ban and he is set to bring some pace on the flanks.

SønderjyskE normally have good control against Esbjerg as they have not lost in the last six head-to-head matches. However, this is likely to be a bit more difficult given the preparations. I still think SønderjyskE are the stronger here, but Esbjerg surely have a good chance. The market has moved a bit already, but I still think there could be slim value in the away win. 

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.43 at Pinnacle

OB-Horsens

Sunday 28/8 14.00

OB have received a lot of criticism as fans and experts expected them to collect more points. However, I think the jury might be a bit harsh on them. They only lost one match this season and it was against a efficient Esbjerg side. They have played several tight matches, where they rightly could argue that they deserved to win, but the matches have finished in draws. Of course, it is concerning that the defence have given up too many goals, but it is important to remember that it is a new backline and they need time. Offensively, OB have lacked the usual efficiency of striker Jakobsen, but I think the offensive production is fine. OB have had some injury issues, left back Pereira is set to be out here, but it is good news that central midfielder Makrini is set to return here. Horsens have had a really good start given expectations. They have proved that they are fairly strong defensively. Offensively, I don’t think they are strong – and stats also suggest that they have been aided by above-sustainable efficiency. However, it is important never to underestimate Horsens as they will always put in a great effort and they have been particularly strong in the last minutes.

A match between two sides with the same harvest in terms of points, but a different deserved harvest if you ask me. I think OB will start to get a bit more out of their fine offensive production, while I don’t think Horsens can continue to be fortunate. I think the bookies are almost correct in the price setting, but I sense a slim piece of value in the home win here.

Idea: 1 – 1.83 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 28/8 16.00

This will be exciting as it is a match between the best two sides in the league currently. Brøndby have performed way above expectations and their aggressive style has certainly worked out well with many sides unable to do anything against it – partly the reason they won 7-0 against AGF last weekend! However, I think they could face issues against a good side like FC Copenhagen that should be able to play around the pressure. Brøndby are also a bit challenged on the fitness, having played against Panathinaikos just three days prior with the best eleven. FC Copenhagen have just reached the Champions League group stage, so morale is high. It will be interesting to see if they can transmit this to the league, where they have lacked a bit of focus lately. However, they are the strongest side in the league. They are incredibly strong at protecting own penalty box (leading the league by a distance on avoiding shots from the penalty box) and on the other hand they have some excellent offensive weapons.

Brøndby’s chaotic and aggressive style seems to work excellent against inferior opponents, but I have my doubts against a well-organised side with stronger players. Brøndby’s defence is nothing spectacular and in my opinion their style is attack is the best defence. Even though you should not underrate the importance of the home field advantage here, I think that this is a match that FC Copenhagen should win. Draw is a real risk here, so important to have this covered.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 1.73 at SBOBet

AaB-AGF

Sunday 28/8 18.00

AaB have had a really impressive start to the season. You could not expect that after losing several key players in the summer break, but their new signings have really delivered from the start. They have been lucky too though and their scoring efficiency is unsustainably high. However, you get the impression that they will only be stronger at dominating matches, the more time they get, so a better match domination could be able to compensate for an expected decline in finishing efficiency. AaB are experiencing a pretty good squad condition and the morale is high after six games without a loss. AGF will seek to rebound quickly after an embarrassing home loss 0-7 against Brøndby. Yes, they received an early red card, but you should never lose 0-7 in front of own fans. Adding to insult, AGF have sold two players during the week. Left back Christensen and the vital central midfielder Jönsson. Two players with a high work rate. Instead, AGF seem to continue signing non-Danish players – for me this is a recipe for failure if you offload all the local players and bring in mercenaries. AGF have serious issues on the left back here with the departure of Christensen and the suspension of Khodzhaniazov – they are forced to use a player out of position. Goalkeeper Jovanovic could return from injury.

Two teams at each end of the morale scale. AaB will be set to put AGF under pressure here, and I doubt that AGF can rebound. I see AaB as the stronger side here, and I think there should value down to 1.80 here.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.88 at Pinnacle

Viborg-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 28/8 20.00

I have had a good feeling about Viborg lately, and they proved it with their 5-1 win in Silkeborg. They are really a good side, when all players are fit. They are solid at the back, have a very defensive central midfield which is excellent for the defensive protection. Furthermore, they can invest a lot of players in defensive tasks since their offensive players, the wingers and strikers are capable of creating something on their own. A really enjoy watching the likes of Kamper, Thychosen, Deble and Park make something happen. However, it is also clear that Viborg tend to fade when one of these players are not ready. In order to keep the opponents at bay, they need to have the best offensive weapons available. For me, Viborg are playing like a top 6 team, and looking at their defensive stats, only FC Copenhagen have allowed fewer shots from the penalty box. FC Midtjylland are experiencing their biggest crisis for a long period. They cannot really get their game to flow, they have just been knocked out in the Europa League after a poor performance, and there is a lot of talk about the head coach in risk of being fired.  They have a strong side though, also way stronger than the side of Viborg, but the players don’t seem to working in the same direction. I have the feeling that some of the expensive players are mostly working for own success rather than team success. Yes, they have signed Rafael van der Vaart, but I don’t think he will make a difference as he is out of fitness. With that being said, you should not underestimate the offensive capabilities of FC Midtjylland – only Brøndby and FC Copenhagen are better at creating chances from opposing penalty boxes.

It is two teams that really dislike each other in the battle for Central Jutland. It will be very tense! I think Viborg have good chances of getting something here, but given the prices the bookies surely acknowledge the poor status of FC Midtjylland. Therefore I will only select this as an idea as I feel that the value is marginal.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.92 at Pinnacle