Viborg-Randers
Friday 12/8
18.00
I started
the season recommending Viborg to lose. They did lose 0-4 and looked pretty
bad, but things have changed since. Their new midfield have played more matches
together and looks a lot stronger already. The early defensive issues with
injuries are almost gone with left back Pallesen likely to return from injury.
But the most important thing is probably the return of striker Serge Deble. He
was subbed-in in the last 45 minutes against OB and made a difference. I expect
him to be back the full speed here and he should be a handful for the Randers
defense with his speed. Randers have started the season in decent manor. They
have not been spectacular, but they are undoubtedly a solid side. They have
conceded quite many shots from own penalty box, so I think they are a bit lucky
with the points gathered so far. Randers have some issues ahead of this match.
Left back Marxen is banned, while central midfielder Poulsen is still expected
to be out with injury. Key striker Ishak is at the Olympics, while creative
winger Masango appears to be unwilling to play for the club, because he wants
to leave. Randers have just signed two quality strikers in George and Pourie,
but I think both will need some time to be assets for Randers. Despite all the
mentioned things, Randers should still field a solid team with many experienced
players.
Viborg have
improved radically since the opener. I currently see fine potential in the
side, and if they are indeed without absences here, I think we will see two
sides of quite even quality. If you calculate in the home advantage, I think
Viborg should be favorites here, and I actually like this bet quite a lot –
enough to let it be the Tip of the Week. I also like Over here – so far 2/3 of
all matches have ended over – with no risk of direct relegation in the new
league system, teams are allowed to play with less caution.
Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Pinnacle
Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.25 at Tipico
Lyngby-AGF
Friday 12/8
20.15
Lyngby have
had a great start in terms of points. 7 points in 4 matches is surely a lot
more than the promoted club expected, but they have made some fine signings.
However, they have also had a bit of luck on the way to success. In fact,
Lyngby have scored 5 goals on their last 6 shots on target. That is quite a
statistic and pretty unsustainable. The concerning thing is that Lyngby have
not created a lot more offensively than what they have scored on, but instead
concede quite a lot of chances. They have almost conceded 10 shots from the
penalty box on average per game, which is quite a lot (3rd highest in the
league). This is also the reason I have Lyngby noted as the “luckiest” team so
far. AGF have been a bit better. They have played 4 tight matches and earned 7
points, which is quite good. They still have a pretty low saving percentage,
which was also the problem last season, so I does not look like the change of
goalkeeper from Rasmussen to Jovanovic have had an imminent effect on the
stats. Rasmussen is set to be back here after Jovanovic picked up an injury in
the last match. I also expect AGF to be without midfielders Olsen (injury),
Pedersen (injury) and Jönsson (Olympics). It is bad news to be without three
regulars in the midfield, but AGF have good squad depth here, so they should be
able to cover it to some extent. The most positive news for AGF is the likely
return of striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen. He is probably the most important
player for AGF and although he probably won’t play 90 minutes, he will surely
be an improvement to an AGF attack that has been a bit weak.
Market has
already shifted quite a bit towards Lyngby. It is no surprise given their good
results and the many injuries for AGF. However, I must admit that I think they
are overrated here. They are a promoted club with poor fundamental stats. Good
results fuels confidence, but still I doubt they can continue their impressive
run. AGF are a fine team even with absences and with Duncan back, I think this
should be close to an even match.
Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.17 at Pinnacle
Horsens-Silkeborg
Saturday
13/8 16.00
Horsens
have had a decent start with only one loss – unfortunately the remaining three
matches have ended in draws, so they are still at the bottom. It is as expected
for a promoted side. Horsens have shown a big passion and looked particularly
strong towards the end of the matches. They have played pretty defensively and
are the team with the lowest ball possession in the league. They might struggle
if they are to dictate the match. They will be without defender Matthias
Nielsen who is banned. The other promoted side, Silkeborg, have been poor – but
also very unlucky. That they have not scored yet is quite a mystery as they
have had 25 shots in the penalty including one penalty. They miss their
offensive ace, winger Skov who is at the Olympics, and without him it is
difficult to see who will find the net. With that being said, they looked
stronger than Horsens in the 1st Division – and the two squads have not changed
radically since.
Horsens
probably have more confidence at the moment, but I don’t see a huge difference
in squad quality. I would pick Silkeborg at current odds, but only idea as it
concerns me a bit to back a team without their offensive ace and without a goal
scored in four matches.
Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.83 at Pinnacle
FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland
Saturday
13/8 18.30
FC
Copenhagen were a bit too relaxed against SønderjyskE last weekend and it left
them with only one point. I don’t think they will take this match relaxed. Home
match against the nearest rival for the title, they will be out to prove who is
the strongest and I expect to see FC Copenhagen in the strongest formation
despite playing a Champions League qualifier in the following week. FC
Copenhagen are by far the strongest team in the league – their shots on target
ratio through the first four matches sits at a crazy 82.2%. FC Midtjylland just
signed Rafael van der Vaart – quite a signing! But he is 33 years old and not
in form, and I doubt we will see him just yet. FC Midtjylland have a strong
team, but it was severely weakened with the departure of Sisto to Celta Vigo.
Without him, I think they lack some of the X-factor that can make them surprise
against FC Copenhagen. Furthermore, it is obvious that FC Midtjylland miss
defensive midfielder Sparv (long-term injury) to keep balance in the midfield.
FC
Copenhagen in super condition without injury concerns against FC Midtjylland
that have not had the best run of late (3-3 against Brøndby and losing to
10-men Hungarian Videoton in Europa League). I am pretty sure that FC
Copenhagen will take this, but sadly the bookies fully agree with me. This
leaves us with a match, where I don’t like the 1X2 market. I would prefer over
here – the last 6 H2H’s in Parken have ended over 2.5 goals and we have seen a
start to the league with many goals.
Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.82 at Unibet
OB-FC Nordsjælland
Sunday 14/8
16.00
OB have not
had the best start to the year. Their main problem has been offensive
efficiency. They have had a good chance creation and should have had better
results. They have called up a full squad apart from Desler and Barrett who is
at the Olympics, but only the former is a regular. The most important is the
return of striker Anders Jacobsen as he is probably the best finisher in the
league. FC Nordsjælland are not looking good at the moment. They don’t dominate
their matches in terms of chances and the shots they have are taken from
distance as they have problems getting into the penalty area. Adding to this,
they have a ton of absences plus a very young squad. They are without offensive
profiles in wingers John and Mikkelsen plus offensive midfielder Fellah – they don’t
look frightening! Defensively, it is not good either with central defenders
Maxsø and Gregor at the Olympics and veteran left back Mtiliga out too.
Difficult
day ahead for FC Nordsjælland. I think there should be some value in the home
win as I believe OB should really dominate against a young and absence hit FC
Nordsjælland team.
Recommendation: 1 – 1.75 at Sportingbet
Brøndby-SønderjyskE
Sunday 14/8
18.00
Brøndby
have really started the season impressively. The new aggressive style under
head coach Zorniger seems to fit the squad nicely. The strategy is also very
demanding, so it will be great for Brøndby to have had a whole week of rest
before this match. Brøndby have been spectacular in some of the matches and
have done well in the Europa League too, but it is also important to
acknowledge that they have had a rather easy schedule playing against the
weakest sides in the league (apart from FC Midtjylland). However, they have had
a solid offensive production (Pukki scoring 6 goals in last 2 matches!)
combined with surprisingly good performances defensively (yes, they conceded
three goals in the last match, but they are not giving away many chances).
SønderjyskE have had a tough start to the league. It is obvious that they are
not used to playing two tournaments at once, and the success in Europa League
seems to have had a negative effect in the Superliga, where players seem to have
lacked the last energy. Energy is important for SønderjyskE as they use
aggression to compensate for their lack of technical and individual skills.
Despite the poor harvest in terms of points (2 points from 4 matches), it is
not that bad as all matches have been very tight – but as I have mentioned
before, their insanely high scoring efficiency should not be able to last and
until now their offensive efficiency has actually been lower than the league
average (ranked 1st last season). Important for SønderjyskE is the return of
central midfielder Janus Drachmann. SønderjyskE should be able to field a
strong and fresh team here after no midweek matches.
This will
be a very interesting battle. I expect Brøndby to be on the attack, while
SønderjyskE will sit back and lurk on counter-attacks. I don’t see an easy win
for Brøndby here, as SønderjyskE are competent at the back and should be able
to hurt Brøndby on counter-attacks and set pieces. I prefer the away side here betting
wise, and Unibet offers a price, which I find to be value. It will be tight, so
I like to cover a bit with the +0.75 line.
Recommendaton: 2 (AH +0.75) – 1.88 at Unibet
AaB-Esbjerg
Monday 15/8
19.00
AaB have
started the season strongly in terms of results with 8 points from 4 games.
They have not been as good as last autumn though - the matches played have all
been very tight. AaB are clearly not as strong as last season yet, but they
have made some interesting signings. Winger Meilinger and central defender
Holgersson have already had great importance scoring vital late goals. AaB have
just made another signing in Peruvian offensive player Edison Flores –
expectations are high, but he is only set to have a minor role here. AaB will
be without two Olympic players: central defender Blåbjerg and winger Børsting.
Both are regulars but not vital. AaB should be able to hurt Esbjerg’s defense
with the pace of Bassogog, especially if the match open up and space is left
behind the defense. Esbjerg have had a terrible 2016, but the last match
indicated better times ahead. Crucial for success is the return of central
midfielder Jeppe Andersen (returned in last match). He brings offensive vision
and is really solid on the ball – something that Esbjerg have lacked when
playing with two defensive central midfielders. Esbjerg still lack some power
in the frontline with new signing McGrath not looking dangerous. Esbjerg depend
on speedy winger Kevin Mensah to create some danger. Esbjerg will be without
winger Mabil who is banned (new signing – red card in debut) and the two
Olympics players goalkeeper Højbjerg and central midfielder Nielsen, while
right back Johnson returns from sickness. Esbjerg don’t look particularly
strong at the back though. They still need to improve their defensive
organization, but the impression is that they are improving under head coach
Todd.
AaB
undoubtedly should be clear favorites, but they have not been outstanding until
now – and the odds for home win are really low. We just have to go back to the
final rounds of last season to find Esbjerg winning the same match 2-1 at
spectacular odds 8.40. The odds are not as high this time around for the away
win, but I still think that AaB are overrated here – I won’t to see more
quality from them before backing them at odds ~1.50 – against a team with a
similar if not larger wage budget. I go for higher odds X2 here as I think
Esbjerg could easily lose with more than one if AaB just takes the lead why I
don’t like the main Asian lines.
Idea: X2 – 2.75 at Bet365
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