Week 6 Superliga previews

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Friday 19/8 18.00

FC Nordsjælland have had a rough start to the season – 1 opening win followed by 4 losses. FC Nordsjælland have been poor, really poor – largely fuelled by a long list of important absences. The situation is starting to look better in terms of squad status with Olympic defenders Maxsø and Gregor just returning from Rio. They are probably a bit tired after just arriving, but they should be fit to play, which should be a boost to a backline that have looked quite vulnerable. Offensively, FC Nordsjælland still have some major issues with winger Mikkelsen out and John just offloaded to Turkey. John was a really important player, who could create something on his own, but he obviously lacked motivation. FC Nordsjælland have just signed a new offensive player in Asante from Stabæk, but should only play a minor role after just arriving. Randers have had a much better start and they have also won the last three. They have not been much better than their opponents, but they have managed to win some tight matches. They still struggle a bit with absences, but striker Ishak and left back Marxen returns here. Unfortunately, central midfielder Allansson is out with injury, meaning that Randers will start with two back-up’s in the central midfield. Apart from this, Randers look decent and significantly stronger offensively.

FC Nordsjælland are not looking good. They don’t create much and the majority of the attempts they have are from outside the box. They have a poor history against Randers (lost 4 out of last 5) and really hate their physical style here. I like Randers here, although their central midfield issues raise some concerns.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.10 at Tipico

Horsens-Lyngby

Friday 19/8 20.15

Battle between two promoted sides. Horsens are yet to win a match, but with 4 draws and 1 loss, they have proved difficult to beat. They have actually conceded quite a lot of chances, but own offensive efficiency have been crucial. They will probably start to lose more matches, but this should be a match, where they have good chances as they played even matches against Lyngby last season. Horsens welcome back captain Nielsen in defence. Lyngby have been even more efficient than Horsens. Lyngby have only had 12 shots on target, but scored 7 goals – a crazy stat. Defensively, they have done okay, but when their shooting regress to the mean, they will start to lose more. Lyngby will be without central defender Tauber, but alternative Jonasson has just returned from injury.

Lyngby have managed some impressive results, but in truth they have just been insanely efficient. Yes, they have a fine team, which is probably just a bit stronger than Horsens, but I really don’t see that large difference.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.88 at Pinnacle

FC Copenhagen-AaB

Saturday 20/8 18.30

FC Copenhagen are a level above the rest. Even their B-team is better than almost every opponent. This will probably be tested here as head coach Solbakken already announced that he will rotate due to the more important Champions League return leg on Wednesday. However, FC Copenhagen’s should still field a very strong team here. AaB have had a good start to the season with 11 points in 5 matches. They have won some tight matches and been very efficient. They need to improve their game, otherwise their results will deteriorate. AaB will welcome back defender Blåbjerg and winger Børsting from the Olympics, but not sure any of them will be in the starting line-up here. FC Copenhagen have scored ten goals in the last two home games against AaB, so this is no favourite opponent for AaB. AaB’s problem is that they are not a team that has a defensive strategy, so when they face FC Copenhagen they struggle as they are not so competent when being under heavy pressure.

Normally, I would back FC Copenhagen at the current odds, but given that they will rotate with certainty I don’t dare. Yes, they have some incredibly strong reserves, but there is still a difference in whether they change on 4 positions or 11. Best solution is to wait for line-ups. Until then I think over could be worth a shot. As noted, AaB are not so good at defending, while they are indeed capable of scoring.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.84 at Pinnacle

Silkeborg-Viborg

Sunday 21/8 13.00

Silkeborg finally scored last weekend against Horsens – well actually, they could not stop and ended up scoring 3 goals to get a draw. The addition of Helenius in attack surely helped as he creates a space due to the opponents having a lot of respect for him. Silkeborg will also welcome back winger Skov from the Olympics. He is one of the few players in Silkeborg with the ability to create something on his own. Silkeborg look very weak defensively, although the current very low saving percentage (52%) should improve over time. Viborg are a fine team. They are solid at the back and quite defensive-minded with offensive strength through good wingers and quick attackers. They are an excellent counter-attacking team. They underperformed a bit in the last round, where it was evident they missed winger Kamper. It is unclear whether he will return here, but he is very important as alternative Bruhn is far from similar quality. In attack, they have the speedy Deble. He will be a challenge to contain for Silkeborg.

I think Viborg have a team that is somewhat stronger than Silkeborg, especially if Kamper returns. Silkeborg do not look good at the back, and I think they will struggle against a speedy player like Deble.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.99 at Pinnacle
Update: Silkeborg winger Skov and goalkeeper Nørgaard both set to miss the match. Replacement keeper Fæste also injured, so third choice Rinke set to play. Good news for our Viborg bet.

AGF-Brøndby

Sunday 21/8 16.00

AGF should be closer to the strongest here with central midfielder Jönsson coming back from the Olympics and fellow midfielder Olsen likely to return from injury. Therefore, we should see a AGF side close to its strongest here, although striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen probably need a few matches to be back at his best after a longer injury break. AGF have played quite good and they are candidates for top 6 this season. Brøndby have had a tremendous start to the season and although I expected their success to some degree be short-lived based on the excitement with the new aggressive strategy under head coach Zorniger, I must say that they continue to impress and the fundamental stats are also strong. Only FC Copenhagen have better underlying stats when it comes to dominating matches. It is true that Brøndby have not had the worst schedule, but they have also done well in Europa League. The question is whether they will rest players on Sunday due to Europa League. It could be the case, which will surely hurt Brøndby as they lack the squad depth of FC Copenhagen.

Odds are drifting on AGF due to people speculating in Brøndby rotating. I think it could be the case, but I don’t want to invest in the current home odds. Instead, I like the draw here. It is a typical draw match with a home team that is slightly weaker than the away team and a situation where both will be satisfied with a draw.

Idea: X – 3.57 at Pinnacle

FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE

Sunday 21/8 18.00

FC Midtjylland are not playing particularly well at the moment. I think they lack confidence and they are not playing as a team. They just suffered a 0-1 home loss to a smaller Turkish side in the Europa League, which will certainly be detrimental to confidence and qualification chances. They could rest players here, but given the first leg result, they could also decide to focus on the league. I think they have really strong material, but they need a player to pick up the magic wand from Sisto who went to Celta Vigo. SønderjyskE have been terrible in the league, but flying in Europa League. The runner-up of last season have only earned 2 points in 5 matches. They have deserved a bit more, but they have not been good though. They have struggled a bit with injuries lately due to their tough schedule, and they will probably rest a few players here. They will be without offensive ace Bechmann, which severely hurt their attack. They are strong on set pieces and this will be their main threat here.

No bet currently as there is too much uncertainty regarding the line-ups. If I had to make a bet, I would probably pick under here. None of the teams are in the best shape offensively and the line is pretty tall.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.17 at SBOBet

Esbjerg-OB

Monday 22/8 19.00

Esbjerg are improving, but they lack some confidence and some offensive power – yeah, and defensive strength. They will welcome back goalkeeper Højbjerg and midfielder Nielsen from the Olympics, but none of them are set to make a large difference. Esbjerg are without winger Mabil and they could have used his speed on the flanks, something that they now only have Mensah to do. However, they are starting to be better organised, which could be due to head coach Todd being able to make his mark. If you look at the players, they are on paper quite good, but they have just not made it work on the pitch yet. OB have not been as good as expected, but they have also been a bit unlucky not to earn more points so far. The win against FC Nordsjælland last weekend could get them started. They are without central midfielder Thomasen and striker Festersen and midfielder El Makrini are doubtful but likely to play. They welcome back backs Desler and Barrett from the Olympics and especially the former is likely to make a return to the line-up.

Esbjerg are a top half team if you look at money invested in the squad, but they are not playing as one. They are starting to get closer though, and they are certainly not easy to beat in Esbjerg as AGF experienced two weeks ago. OB have some injury concerns and have not played outstanding until now. Yes, they are stronger than Esbjerg, but they have been made too big favourites given that this is no easy away match for them. If Festersen and El Makrini are out, this is a really good bet.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.5) – 1.81 at Pinnacle