Viborg-AGF
Viborg
are a fairly solid team. They don’t concede a lot of chances, but they have
been too poor in front of goal. They rely on the speed of Deble, otherwise they
are a team of hard working players. Two key players, centre back Rask and
winger Kamper, are in the called squad, but have struggled with minor injuries
lately. AGF have played some decent matches, but like Viborg they have
struggled in front of goal but actually even more at the back. They don’t give
away a lot of chances, but those they concede are fairly big chances. They
commit many individual mistakes at the back, which have resulted in many goals
conceded this season (AGF hold the lowest saving percentage in the league).
Interestingly, the two teams rank lowest on PDO, which is an indicator of
unlucky teams: inefficient in front of opponents goal and own goal.
The
last two matches between the two have ended in draws. It is no coincidence as
the two teams are fairly even and lack power in attack. I expect a cautious
match. Under 2.5 goals a possibility although price is fairly low. The risky
pick is the draw.
Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet
Randers-FC Nordsjælland
Randers
are struggling at the moment. They used to have a lot of power in attack, but
they sold strong striker Brock-Madsen to Birmingham, offloaded fellow striker
Fall, Ishak is experiencing a dip in form and although Lundberg started the
season strongly, he is no natural goal getter. For this match Ishak is banned,
while Lundberg should return from a minor injury. However, bottom line is that
Randers should lack force in the front line. The midfield is significantly
strengthened with the return of Keller and Poulsen from ban, so Randers should
have a good chance of dominating the midfield here. Central defender Tverskov
is out with an injury. FC Nordsjælland are so volatile. Normally, they are way
stronger at home than away, but this tendency has not been seen this season. FC
Nordsjælland will be without Petry in the midfield due to a ban. This means
that FC Nordsjælland will field a pretty lightweight midfield, which could face
problems against the physical Randers midfield.
Randers
have won the last three matches without problems as this usually serves as a
nice match-up for them. However, this time around I am concerned with respect
to their offensive strength. Do they have what is needed to break down FC
Nordsjælland? On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland have some great
counter-attacking weapons in Bruninho and Joshua John, but in the past they
have often lacked commitment in away matches like this. If forced I would pick
the away side here.
Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365
UPDATE: Bruninho absent for FC Nordsjælland. He is the offensive key play, so bad news for FC Nordsjælland and the idea pick.
UPDATE: Bruninho absent for FC Nordsjælland. He is the offensive key play, so bad news for FC Nordsjælland and the idea pick.
SønderjyskE-Hobro
SønderjyskE
are a team of committed players. They put in an impressive work load which
often compensates for the quality they might lack. They are strongest in away
games as they don’t like to take charge of a match. In four of the last five
seasons they have earned more points away than at home! Striker Dalgaard is
doubtful, but Bechmann is a fine replacement. SønderjyskE should bring a decent
line-up but lack good alternatives on the bench. Hobro just changed head coach.
Instead of an unproven temporary head coach, they now have veteran Ove
Pedersen, who is own of the most acclaimed head coaches in Denmark. He is
really good at making his teams solid at the back, something that Hobro
urgently need. Offensively they have some strong players in George and
Kirkevold (and Park if he manages to return from injury), but defensively they
lack some stability. Midfielder Sane is banned, but he should be replaceable.
Although
SønderjyskE won the last head-to-head match 3-0 without problems, I believe
that a team that has so many problems in dominating matches should never be
1.70 favourites against a team like Hobro that have the offensive strength to
hurt SønderjyskE. And with Ove Pedersen in charge, I would not be surprised to
see Hobro in a more competitive version.
Recommendation: 2 (0-1) – 2.30 at
Tipico
Brøndby-AaB
Brøndby
with a poor display last weekend, but with several of the key players just
coming back from internationals it could be a partial explanation. Brøndby have
been one of the stronger teams lately, they have really benefitted from the
return of veteran Kahlenberg on the midfield and Agger playing consistently in
defence. Brøndby are normally a fairly strong home team. AaB have offered some
brilliant displays lately. They are exceptional offensively on a good day, but
on bad days they are pretty average. They often tend to suffer in away games
and things are not easier with the ban for key midfielder Risgård. AaB lack a
quality replacement for Risgård and it is of massive importance, since AaB’s
success is driven by the passing skills and intelligence of Würtz, Risgård and
Thomsen. Without Risgård, they cannot keep the same offensive pace as normally.
However, they have the clear league top goalscorer in Spalvis and he is
brimming with confidence at the moment.
I
suspect Risgårds absence with have massive importance as he is so important due
to his footballing skills and also his big influence. The alternatives are
nowhere near as good. Brøndby have been playing fairly well lately and should
be capable of scoring against an AaB team defence that is not among the best in
the league.
Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.96 at
Unibet
FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen
FC
Midtjylland are not playing well at the moment. The players seem fatigued by
the overall tight schedule as they have to focus on Europa League and Superliga
at the same time, while suffering from a number of injuries for important
players. The last Europa League match saw striker Duncan and winger Sisto leave
with injuries and it is unlikely to see any of them in the starting line-up
here. Due to the importance of the match and the number of injuries, FC
Midtjylland are unlikely to rotate compared to the match against Legia Warszawa
on Thursday. This means that we should see a motivated but probably tired home
team. FC Midtjylland were exceptional at home last season, but they have been
more ordinary this season, probably due to the focus on more than one
tournament. Right back Rømer is injured and this could force FC Midtjylland to
use a natural left back instead. FC Copenhagen were poor at home against Viborg
last weekend. Without two of the offensive profiles, central midfielder Delaney
and striker Santander, FC Copenhagen lacked energy and were unable to create
much danger. Santander returns from a ban here, and this should spark some hope
for the attack. Delaney is still out, which is bad news for the midfield that
is set to be very defensive minded. FC Copenhagen have a fine defence, so they
should be pretty solid with a defensive minded midfield in front of them.
This
is a vital match in the title race. FC Midtjylland are just aiming to survive
until 2016, so they can reload the batteries and have the injured players back,
while FC Copenhagen should take advantage of this opportunity and go for the
win. This should also explain why FC Copenhagen are favourites against a team
16-0-1 at home last season. This match is very likely to be low scoring and
cautious. An idea could be few goals in first half. The last match between the
two ended 0-0.
Idea: Under 0.75 goals at half-time – 2.05 at
Bet365
OB-Esbjerg
Only
Hobro have conceded more shots than OB and Esbjerg this season. At the same
time both teams are able to create something offensively. OB have the most
dangerous front line, where Falk, Festersen and Zohore can cause problems for
every team in the league. Especially Falk is outstanding; he should be destined
for a club abroad soon. OB do have problems at the back, where especially
goalkeeper Koval is looking more like a circus artist. He can be credited some
come conceded goals this season. Esbjerg are shockingly poor at the back. They
conceded three goals during the opening 20 minutes at home against Hobro last
weekend. The situation is so bad that Esbjerg already have made defensive signings
for 2016. Offensively, they have some fine individuals in Söder, Mensah and
Bille, but the team is often suffering from players acting individually.
Esbjerg will still be without the banned defender Stenderup, so no signs of
defensive improvement here.
I
think OB have more offensive strength than Esbjerg and that should be the
difference here. Just considering Falk vs. the Esbjerg back line most concern
head coach Dal deeply. Goals should be in the cards here as Esbjerg are
unlikely to leave Odense without scoring.
Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.10 at
Bet365
Idea: Over 2.75 goals – 2.00 at Bet365
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