Week 17 Superliga previews

Viborg-AGF

Viborg are a fairly solid team. They don’t concede a lot of chances, but they have been too poor in front of goal. They rely on the speed of Deble, otherwise they are a team of hard working players. Two key players, centre back Rask and winger Kamper, are in the called squad, but have struggled with minor injuries lately. AGF have played some decent matches, but like Viborg they have struggled in front of goal but actually even more at the back. They don’t give away a lot of chances, but those they concede are fairly big chances. They commit many individual mistakes at the back, which have resulted in many goals conceded this season (AGF hold the lowest saving percentage in the league). Interestingly, the two teams rank lowest on PDO, which is an indicator of unlucky teams: inefficient in front of opponents goal and own goal.

The last two matches between the two have ended in draws. It is no coincidence as the two teams are fairly even and lack power in attack. I expect a cautious match. Under 2.5 goals a possibility although price is fairly low. The risky pick is the draw.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet

Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Randers are struggling at the moment. They used to have a lot of power in attack, but they sold strong striker Brock-Madsen to Birmingham, offloaded fellow striker Fall, Ishak is experiencing a dip in form and although Lundberg started the season strongly, he is no natural goal getter. For this match Ishak is banned, while Lundberg should return from a minor injury. However, bottom line is that Randers should lack force in the front line. The midfield is significantly strengthened with the return of Keller and Poulsen from ban, so Randers should have a good chance of dominating the midfield here. Central defender Tverskov is out with an injury. FC Nordsjælland are so volatile. Normally, they are way stronger at home than away, but this tendency has not been seen this season. FC Nordsjælland will be without Petry in the midfield due to a ban. This means that FC Nordsjælland will field a pretty lightweight midfield, which could face problems against the physical Randers midfield.

Randers have won the last three matches without problems as this usually serves as a nice match-up for them. However, this time around I am concerned with respect to their offensive strength. Do they have what is needed to break down FC Nordsjælland? On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland have some great counter-attacking weapons in Bruninho and Joshua John, but in the past they have often lacked commitment in away matches like this. If forced I would pick the away side here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365

UPDATE: Bruninho absent for FC Nordsjælland. He is the offensive key play, so bad news for FC Nordsjælland and the idea pick.

SønderjyskE-Hobro

SønderjyskE are a team of committed players. They put in an impressive work load which often compensates for the quality they might lack. They are strongest in away games as they don’t like to take charge of a match. In four of the last five seasons they have earned more points away than at home! Striker Dalgaard is doubtful, but Bechmann is a fine replacement. SønderjyskE should bring a decent line-up but lack good alternatives on the bench. Hobro just changed head coach. Instead of an unproven temporary head coach, they now have veteran Ove Pedersen, who is own of the most acclaimed head coaches in Denmark. He is really good at making his teams solid at the back, something that Hobro urgently need. Offensively they have some strong players in George and Kirkevold (and Park if he manages to return from injury), but defensively they lack some stability. Midfielder Sane is banned, but he should be replaceable.

Although SønderjyskE won the last head-to-head match 3-0 without problems, I believe that a team that has so many problems in dominating matches should never be 1.70 favourites against a team like Hobro that have the offensive strength to hurt SønderjyskE. And with Ove Pedersen in charge, I would not be surprised to see Hobro in a more competitive version.

Recommendation: 2 (0-1) – 2.30 at Tipico

Brøndby-AaB

Brøndby with a poor display last weekend, but with several of the key players just coming back from internationals it could be a partial explanation. Brøndby have been one of the stronger teams lately, they have really benefitted from the return of veteran Kahlenberg on the midfield and Agger playing consistently in defence. Brøndby are normally a fairly strong home team. AaB have offered some brilliant displays lately. They are exceptional offensively on a good day, but on bad days they are pretty average. They often tend to suffer in away games and things are not easier with the ban for key midfielder Risgård. AaB lack a quality replacement for Risgård and it is of massive importance, since AaB’s success is driven by the passing skills and intelligence of Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen. Without Risgård, they cannot keep the same offensive pace as normally. However, they have the clear league top goalscorer in Spalvis and he is brimming with confidence at the moment.

I suspect Risgårds absence with have massive importance as he is so important due to his footballing skills and also his big influence. The alternatives are nowhere near as good. Brøndby have been playing fairly well lately and should be capable of scoring against an AaB team defence that is not among the best in the league.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.96 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland are not playing well at the moment. The players seem fatigued by the overall tight schedule as they have to focus on Europa League and Superliga at the same time, while suffering from a number of injuries for important players. The last Europa League match saw striker Duncan and winger Sisto leave with injuries and it is unlikely to see any of them in the starting line-up here. Due to the importance of the match and the number of injuries, FC Midtjylland are unlikely to rotate compared to the match against Legia Warszawa on Thursday. This means that we should see a motivated but probably tired home team. FC Midtjylland were exceptional at home last season, but they have been more ordinary this season, probably due to the focus on more than one tournament. Right back Rømer is injured and this could force FC Midtjylland to use a natural left back instead. FC Copenhagen were poor at home against Viborg last weekend. Without two of the offensive profiles, central midfielder Delaney and striker Santander, FC Copenhagen lacked energy and were unable to create much danger. Santander returns from a ban here, and this should spark some hope for the attack. Delaney is still out, which is bad news for the midfield that is set to be very defensive minded. FC Copenhagen have a fine defence, so they should be pretty solid with a defensive minded midfield in front of them.

This is a vital match in the title race. FC Midtjylland are just aiming to survive until 2016, so they can reload the batteries and have the injured players back, while FC Copenhagen should take advantage of this opportunity and go for the win. This should also explain why FC Copenhagen are favourites against a team 16-0-1 at home last season. This match is very likely to be low scoring and cautious. An idea could be few goals in first half. The last match between the two ended 0-0.

Idea: Under 0.75 goals at half-time – 2.05 at Bet365

OB-Esbjerg

Only Hobro have conceded more shots than OB and Esbjerg this season. At the same time both teams are able to create something offensively. OB have the most dangerous front line, where Falk, Festersen and Zohore can cause problems for every team in the league. Especially Falk is outstanding; he should be destined for a club abroad soon. OB do have problems at the back, where especially goalkeeper Koval is looking more like a circus artist. He can be credited some come conceded goals this season. Esbjerg are shockingly poor at the back. They conceded three goals during the opening 20 minutes at home against Hobro last weekend. The situation is so bad that Esbjerg already have made defensive signings for 2016. Offensively, they have some fine individuals in Söder, Mensah and Bille, but the team is often suffering from players acting individually. Esbjerg will still be without the banned defender Stenderup, so no signs of defensive improvement here.

I think OB have more offensive strength than Esbjerg and that should be the difference here. Just considering Falk vs. the Esbjerg back line most concern head coach Dal deeply. Goals should be in the cards here as Esbjerg are unlikely to leave Odense without scoring.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.10 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.75 goals – 2.00 at Bet365