Week 15 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-AaB
SønderjyskE played a quite poor match in Aarhus, where they failed to register a single shot on goal. Despite of this, they earned 0-0 due to a strong back line (and a rather toothless AGF attack). SønderjyskE are so committed defensively, it is really impressive to see how they are instantly back home to defend in case they lose the ball. Overall, I think they lack quality, but they get a lot of results from good defending and strong finishing from the strikers Dalgaard and Bechmann. For this match, SønderjyskE have some problems as two vital players are banned: winger Absalonsen (tied team top goalscorer) and defensive midfielder Guira. On the plus side is the return of fellow midfielder Drachmann from ban. AaB are in great form at the moment and they hammered Hobro 6-0 last weekend. They are playing without injuries for key players and it is really good for the consistency. AaB are known for their very dynamic attacking play and it seems to be working really well at the moment. Left back Ahlmann is set to miss the match, but he has not been a regular starter this season.

SønderjyskE without some key players (in a thin squad) and not in the best form against AaB who are in great form and with a strong eleven. This look like an obvious away bet, and although the market has already moved, I think there is still a bit of value left.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.25) - 2.025 at Bet365

Randers-AGF
Randers have not had the best start to the season. In my opinion, the team should only be stronger compared to last season, but so far the results has not been more than average. Randers have suffered from the lack of success for striker Ishak, who was the team top goalscorer last season. The obvious alternative Brock-Madsen is now sitting on the bench in Birmingham, so Randers will have to wait for better days to arrive. Randers will be without the strong central defender Fenger, but they have a good alternative available. Randers will arrive with the usual 4-4-2 formation, and it will be interesting to see if they will try to take possession or lurk on counter-attacks. AGF are based on SoTR the 3rd best team in the league. I have a feeling the high score could be due to AGF having a number of players who like to shoot from the distance. This could also explain that AGF have the league lowest scoring percentage. However, that they have the league's worst saving percentage is probably more due to poor goaltending and a rather erratic defense. AGF should have a full squad to choose from here, but despite of this they are likely to face problems in attack, since they lack a quality striker.

Two mid-table teams that are struggling a bit at the moment. It is also a derby. In other words, it is likely to be a quite intense match. Looking at recent odds, you rarely get more than odds 2.00 for a Randers home win against an average team. To a comparison, the price for Randers victory away against AGF earlier this season where odds ended around 2.30 (a match Randers dominated heavily until receiving two red cards). Therefore, the home pick seems reasonable here, although I am slightly concerned due to the inefficiency of the Randers attack.

Idea: 1 - 2.05 at Sportingbet

Hobro-FC Nordsjælland
Hobro are in a really bad position and the 6-0 humiliation against AaB last weekend did not leave much room for optimism. Hobro had several absences, which made it very difficult. There will be a slight improvement this week as strong defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg returns. Hobro have also called up important offensive players Park and George, but it would be a surprise to see any of them in the starting line-up here. Without them Hobro lack some offensive power and much pressure on the shoulders of Kirkevold. Left back Tamboura is banned, and it is unsure whether the obvious alternative Tjørnelund is able to replace him. FC Nordsjælland are very volatile in the performances. If anything, they are significantly stronger on own pitch rather than on away games, where they sometimes seem indifferent. FC Nordsjælland have a team with many technically gifted players, where especially Bruninho has the ability to hurt the slow Hobro defence. They visited Hobro earlier the season and won 3-1 in a match they dominated.

Both teams have one thing in common: they play matches with a lot of goals (both teams have been over the line in the last four matches). Therefore, I am a bit surprised to see over being the underdog here. Both teams will go for the win here, and this could give us an entertaining match. The price for home win is quite big, but I think it is justified given the probable absences of Park and George and given how the last head-to-head match 2 months ago turned out. Only an idea pick for over as Hobro could struggle offensively given their missing players.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 2.02 at Unibet

Viborg-OB
Viborg have performed fairly well this season, but have just lacked some efficiency. They found it in the last two matches, which led to two impressive 4-2 wins against Esbjerg and FC Midtjylland.  Viborg have a strong defensive organisation and some skilled offensive players in Akharraz, Kamper and Deble. Unfortunately, the speedy striker Deble is injured here, which will surely hurt Viborg's attack as he draws a lot of attention (and he was also just starting to find goalscoring form). In the absence of Deble, Viborg might select to use a midfielder alongside Curth in attack. If you like goals, you should just watch matches with OB as their matches have the highest number of goals per game in the league. This is due to two things: one of strongest attacks in the league and one of the weakest defences. Evaluated on OB's season, having a good defence seems to be a bigger driver to earning points than a good attack as OB have won 5 and lost 7. But you never know with OB as they have the offensive strength to hurt anyone in the league, while goalkeeper Koval can make some outstanding saves but also let in the most simple goals. OB should benefit from the return of midfielder El Makrini from ban. Right back Lund will miss the match, but this could give a spot to Desler who has just returned from a longer injury period. Desler was a key player for OB last season.

Viborg will probably suffer offensively from the absence of Deble. On the other hand OB should have the offensive strength to make something happen against Viborg. Although I am really concerned about the OB back line, I would not make Viborg this big favorites without their best offensive player. Going for gold here as I don't think it is worthwhile to have draw insurance due to the volatility of OB.

Idea: 2 - 3.45 at Cashpoint

FC Midtjylland-Esbjerg
The defending champions are experiencing a bad period. They have lost the last five matches (including two league losses and two losses to Napoli in the Europa League). A number of injuries have led to some inconsistency in the team, but overall I still believe that the team they can field is fairly strong. Naturally, it is a problem with Europa League in Napoli in Thursday and this should have a negative influence. The absence of central defender Sviatchenko is also bad news although Banggaard is a decent replacement. FC Midtjylland overperformed at the start of the season - the number of conceded goals was very low compared to the number of shots conceded - and it is only natural that that could not continue. However, the last few losses have also been due to some very efficient opponents (for instance, Viborg scored 4 goals with 4 shots on target) and I would not be too quick to conclude that FC Midtjylland are suddenly not a quality team despite of the recent losses. Esbjerg got a hugely important win against FC Nordsjælland last weekend (with some help from the referee). They have been poor this season, and relegation was starting to become a serious threat. The win gave some air and some confidence, but the overall impression is still not good. They have a team with fairly many fine individual players, but they need to start working together as a team. The defence is also concerningly poor and the likely absence of central defender Jakobsen is not comforting.

FC Midtjylland could be affected mentally and physically by the tight schedule and poor results. However, seeing a team that was 16-0-1 at home last season and 5-1-2 this season not being clearer favorites against a rather poor Esbjerg team (who also have a concerning head-to-head history when visiting FC Midtjylland) is somewhat surprising. This is the Tip of the Week bet, although I must admit that I don't see this as a big value pick.

Tip of the Week: 1 - 1.85 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen
Derby day in Copenhagen. A home win can really open up the championship fight. Brøndby have been performing well lately after a very poor start to the season. The return of Kahlenberg has surely been a catalyst recently as he gives the midfield some extra vision. Brøndby have a number of quality players, but also some weaknesses, especially on the flanks where they lack some top-level players. Brøndby are without absences. FC Copenhagen have won the last four matches and looked stronger and stronger for every match. They are also without important injuries which is really helping them find consistency. Furthermore, winger Kusk is starting to show some of the quality which made him an integral part of AaB's title winning team two seasons ago. This is important for FC Copenhagen since they have sometimes been a bit one-dimensionally in attack with pressure mainly on Jørgensen to succeed. Defensively, FC Copenhagen are rock solid and together with FC Midtjylland they have conceded the least shots this season (138 - Brøndby to comparison: 174).

The two teams met around a month ago with line-ups very close to the ones expected tomorrow. Brøndby won 1-0 in a fairly even match (match played in Brøndby). The closing odds at Bet365 were 3.60-3.30-2.05. Now they offer 3.00-3.40-2.30. It seems like a logical odds move given the outcome of the last match. Despite of the even nature of the last match, I still believe that FC Copenhagen should dominate most matches. I regard the odds movement as a bit too strong and go for the away side here.

Idea: 2 - 2.45 at Nordicbet