OB-FC Midtjylland
OB are great
in attack, poor at the back. Are they strong enough offensively to score
against FC Midtjylland – it is likely with players as Festersen and Falk. OB
have no important absences for this match, but they still suffer from a poor
defence and a shaky goalkeeper. FC Midtjylland, defending champions, have
suffered from several injuries this season due to a tight schedule. Now they
have had a week off, so the overall fitness should be better. Strong
centre-back Sviatchenko returns from ban, while star winger Sisto is back in
the squad after suffering from injury. Sisto is still doubtful and unlikely to
play a full match. FC Midtjylland should be able to field a fairly strong team.
They are very strong in the centre of the pitch (central defence, midfield and
striker) and should be able to dominate the match.
OB are
really up and down. The last home match against Brøndby ended 2-5 and it just
shows that their defence can really suffer against a good opponent. FC
Midtjylland should have good chances here as they should be fresher than seen
in the past round, but I must admin OB have the offensive firepower to hurt
them.
Idea: 2 – 2.10 at Danske Spil
FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE
FC
Nordsjælland are one of the most instable teams. It is kind of an
all-or-nothing team, sometimes they are really good and sometimes they look
like the worst team in the league. FC Nordsjælland rely on some technically
gifted midfielders and a strong striker in Bruninho. SønderjyskE have a range
of bad results lately. I don’t think they have been bad, perhaps just a bit
unlucky. They will benefit from the return of Guira and Absalonsen to the
midfield, both vital players. Some injury doubts as to right back Pedersen.
SønderjyskE are typically stronger away than at home for the reason that they
really tend to perform when allowed sitting back and counter-attack. With
strikers like Dalgaard and Bechmann on top they have some weapons that don’t
need a lot of chances to score.
Odds have
already dropped on the away side. For good reason as it is a good type of match
for them. However, 3.25 is not spectacular for an away win. Instead, I would go
for an over match here. The teams have a tendency of playing some spectacular
head-to-heads and together they have crossed the line in 19 out of 30 matches
this season.
Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Bet365
Esbjerg-Hobro
Esbjerg have
been really poor this season. Only Hobro have conceded as many goals, which
shows that the back line is abysmal. Central defender Stenderup and right back
Laursen miss the match, which is not making matters better. Offensively, there
is still plenty to work with, but players like Nicki Bille, Mensah, Paulsen and
Söder are all capable of finding the net. Hobro are undoubtedly the worst team
in the league and they should go down. However, if they are to avoid that they
need something in a match like this. They have been good against Esbjerg in
recent head-to-heads, since Esbjerg hate the physical strength of Hobro’s hard
working players. Hobro have had a lot of injuries, but should have some of the
best offensive cards available in Kirkevold, George and maybe also Park. If
that is the case, Esbjerg will struggle to get a clean sheet.
Although it
is frightening that Hobro got smashed 6-0 in Aalborg, I don’t see Esbjerg doing
the same thing to Hobro here. Hobro have a fine chance of getting something
here and they might even snatch a surprise win if things are really working as
I have problems seeing Esbjerg’s backline containing the Hobro strikers.
Recommendation: Both teams to score – 1.85 at Nordicbet
Idea: 2 – 6.00 at Unibet
FC Copenhagen-Viborg
FC
Copenhagen have been looking really good lately earning four wins in the last
five matches. Offensively they have looked very strong and defensively, they
are just a solid team, why they are also the team conceding fewest goals in the
league. They play an organised 4-4-2, which is really difficult to break down.
However, they are without two of the more important players here. Central
midfielder Delaney is injured, while striker Santander is banned. Central
defender Antonsson is injured, so FC Copenhagen might be forced to change quite
a few things here, which could hurt the consistency which they have benefitted
from lately. Viborg have done fairly well this season considering that they are
a promoted club. Based on SoTR they are an average team with a poor scoring
percentage. Viborg suffered in the last match as striker Deble was banned.
Without him they lack an offensive player capable of making the extraordinary
and thereby creating space for the others. He returns from ban here. Apart from
this Viborg should be able to field a defensively solid team that almost
managed to get a draw in the similar match a month ago (1-0).
FC
Copenhagen without several players facing a compact Viborg. This could be
difficult for the home team, although they will probably win. But even if they
win, they are not a team that tend to go all-in for big wins.
Idea: 2 (AH +1.25) – 1.925 at Bet365
AGF-Brøndby
AGF have
only won one of the last ten matches. Not impressive – they play decent
football at the times, but it lacks end product. There are many inconsistent
players and the defence is not compelling. Especially goalkeeper Rasmussen, who
has the lowest saving rate in the league, is a weak point. This is one of the
big games in Aarhus, so a strong support from the stands is expected. Brøndby
have experienced quite a makeover after starting the season miserably. The
return of Kahlenberg combined with the signing of Austin has really improved
the central midfield. At the same time, Brøndby are starting to look stronger
at the back as talismanic Agger has been playing regularly for a longer period.
AGF have
looked decent at own pitch during this season, but they will find it difficult
to break down Brøndby’s backline here. Brøndby should be able to hurt AGF’s weak
defence and I actually think the price is fine in a situation where we get half
the money back in case of a draw.
Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.925 at Bet365
AaB-Randers
AaB have
been spectacular in the last home games. The last three matches have ended in
wins with a score of 15-1! When AaB get the play going at home, they are an
unstoppable force. Consistency is also a big part. The integral midfielders
Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen have been playing a lot of matches together, while
the return of Spalvis (current league top goalscorer) has given them a true
goal getter to assist. Randers are a known as a well organised and defensively
solid team. This season they have struggled a bit offensively as key striker
Ishak has not been at his best. Randers will be without both central
midfielders (Poulsen and captain Keller) here due to bans, which is really bad
news as Randers never rotate in these positions, so no quality replacements
emerge. Therefore Randers will have to try something different, perhaps moving
a central defender to the midfield. In any case, it will be difficult for them
to win the midfield battle and contain the strong AaB midfield. However,
Randers will find some comfort in the 2-0 win in Aalborg in August.
The midfield
absences for Randers are really vital, and against a AaB team brimming with
confidence, it will be really difficult to take something from here. I consider
the home win a really fine bet and actually expected to see a price around 1.80
given the Randers absences.
Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365
Week 5 round-up
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