Below you will find a list of Superliga previews from Round 9:
AGF-SønderjyskE
AGF suffered a disappointing defeat in Hobro last weekend, despite being the stronger team. However, they have not won in the last five matches, which is a rather concerning statistics. The matches have been tight, so AGF are not in crisis. AGF will be without the strong winger Stephan Petersen, but this should yield a starting chance for Ahmed Yasin who have seemed very goalseeking so far. If I were to pick two players from SønderjyskE who were difficult to replace it would be midfielders Adama Guira and Bjørn Paulsen. Guira is banned and Paulsen has been sold to Esbjerg. The effect should be a rather weak SønderjyskE midfield, and they risk being dominated. They will have to put some faith in the opportunistic striker Tommy Bechmann, who is a clever striker who made take advantage of AGF's young central defence.
I looked at the odds yesterday, and were so close to putting up a recommendation for home win at around 2.45. Now the odds are way gone and I cannot see any value in AGF at 2.15. I could go for SønderjyskE not to lose, but I found an even better bet. I've have once again spotted a lot of value in Nordicbet/Betsafe's statistic bets. Although the match easily could turn into a match with many chances and goals, I cannot place more than 40% chance for more than 10.5 shots on target in the match. So far, only 14 out of 48 matches have crossed this line! So with Nordicbet/Betsafe offering odds 1.85 for under 10.5 shots on target, it is surely a good bet. I keep this as an idea bet since I know that it is a low limit market. In terms of goalscoring markets, I expect Yasin to start on the wing for AGF and he has been a real threat in front of goal so far. He has scored once in 185 minutes played, but has been very close to more goals. I believe odds 6.50 for him to score should be value in a match, where AGF should get the majority of the chances.
Ideas: Under 10.5 shots on target - 1.85 at Nordicbet
Yasin to score - 6.50 at Nordicbet
OB-Viborg
OB have been very volatile in their performances lately. After beating FC Copenhagen in a fine display, they were behind 4-0 at Esbjerg after only 35 minutes last weekend. In truth Esbjerg were incredibly efficient, but it does not change the picture of a OB defence that sometimes appear very fragile. On a positive note is the return of Oliver Lund on the right back, who will bring some stability into the defence. Offensively, OB have not been as strong lately, but with a player like Rasmus Falk to start the attacks, OB will always be dangerous. OB's best striker Rasmus Festersen misses the match with an injury. A loss, although OB's two alternatives Zohore and Jacobsen are of fine quality. Viborg are mainly focused on defending. They have done so in fine style, and it is actually only FC Midtjylland who have conceded less shots on target through the first 8 matches of the season. However, a meagre saving rate of 57.7% ranks Peter Friis as the poorest keeper in the league. Although I am not convinced by his quality, I am certain that this saving rate will converge towards a better saving rate with more games. Offensively, Viborg are the team that have created the fewest shots on target in the league (only 3.5 per match). Viborg's poor offensive display is in part explained by a poor start of offensive profile Serge Deble who is still without a goal after scoring 15 times in the 1st Division last season. I actually think Deble is hurtful for Viborg's attack, since he is very selfish and on several times he has wasted potentially quality chances due to not passing the ball to open teammates. Thus, Viborg have to rely mostly on set pieces. They have some tall and skilled headers in Mikkel Rask, Jeroen Veldmate and Ante Rukavina and they can surely hurt OB if they get a number of corners/free kicks.
OB have some better individuals, but if Viborg manage to shut down a player like Rasmus Falk and make the match physical, they have good chances. Was this match played at a neutral place, I would rank OB marginally stronger. After adjusting for home advantage, I land on 42-28-30, which means that there is no clear value to get anywhere. Closest is the home win, why I pick that. But look for market movements, value could arise.
Idea: 1 - 2.42 at Betfair
FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland
Thought FC Midtjylland would rest several players. They are not. They have a very strong team, a strong home field and they should dominate FC Nordsjælland who are traditionally weak away from home. Big value in my opinion, so hurry.
Further explanation:
Well, it is not entirely true. FC Midtjylland are resting Sviatchenko, Duncan and Bach Bak. However, they have very strong alternatives (among them two Under 21 internationals (Olsson and Banggaard) and the top goalscorer last season (Pusic)) and I honestly expected them to rest more players. It is not the case. Sure that the players could be a bit tired mentally and physically, but it is such a strong team that I can never give them less than 50% chance for a home win. They had a home record of 16-0-1 last season. FC Nordsjælland are nothing spectacular and they one of their best offensive players, Joshua John is on the bench after showing a poor attitude this season. They only have Bruninho to rely on, and although he is good, he cannot beat FC Midtjylland all by himself.
Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) - 2.00 at Bet365
FC Copenhagen-Hobro
FC Copenhagen have clinched two wins in a row and they are starting to gain confidence. They are just 3 points behind league leaders FC Midtjylland and there should be good reason for optimism. The team is very strong, although they have underperformed slightly so far. Nevertheless, they rank 2nd in the league based on SoTR (Shots on Target Ratio). Offensively, they have a lot of quality, and players like Nicolai Jørgensen and Federico Santander has the physique and footballing skills to challenge the hard working, but not impressive defence of Hobro. William Kvist returns from ban to bolster the central midfield. Hobro are last and they are also clearly last in terms of SoTR. They have lost some of the most vital players in the summer break, and they have signed a large number of new players. They have taken many gambles and we are still to see if it will pay off. In any case, I believe it will take some time to get congruence in the team. They won last weekend against AGF, but it was mainly due to an impressive efficiency. Left back Jakob Tjørnelund is injured.
FC Copenhagen lost 0-3 to Hobro in a home win last season. Much has changed in both teams since then. I am sure that FC Copenhagen won't underestimate Hobro as much this time. Hobro will try to defend all they can, but against Santander and Jørgensen I think it will be impossible to maintain the defensive shield. If FC Copenhagen scores early, I would not be suprised to see Hobro falling apart. Not big value here, but just enough to a recommendation.
Recommendation: 1 (AH -1.75) - 2.05 at Bet365
AaB-Brøndby
AaB have been performing quite inconsistently. At times they play splendid football, they are quick and technically strong. At other teams, they cannot connect the simplest passes. Today, it is really positive that Risgård returns in the midfield. He is a vital player. I am slightly concerned by Ahlmann playing the left back position. It is his first league start after a serious injury that have kept him out for a year. Offensively, they have seen better days, but will hope for success with the constellation of Spalvis and Enevoldsen. If I were to pick a goalscorer in the match I would go for Enevoldsen at odds 5.00 at Nordicbet. Brøndby started the season poorly, but has been improving since. They rank first in the league in terms of TSR (Total shots ratio) and they will surely finish higher than the current 7th place. They have not conceded in the last four matches, which should give some confidence. Negative is the absence of left back Durmisi, who has been playing great lately.
Risgård is back for AaB and that is surely good for them, but I still struggle to make them as big favorites as the bookies do here. Brøndby have been on top in several matches and confidence is high. I expect a vary even match. Also considered under here, but dangerous since the first goal can really set fire to the match.
Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) - 1.80 at Bet365
Esbjerg-Randers
Odds have moved a lot today. I was planning a bet on Randers earlier when AH +0 at odds 2.10 were available. However, much has changed since and for what reason? Esbjerg will be without two profiles, captain and central midfielder Magnus Lekven and striker Nicki Bille. Both with bans, but this has been known all week. Esbjerg have decent cover for Lekven and Bille who have not had a good season so far. However, they are known to have problems against Randers physical style. They will have to combine their way through the Randers defence with the likes of Fellah, Söder and Nielsen. Randers fielding the strongest team. Especially the striker duo of Ishak and Lundberg look dangerous.
I think Randers are slightly stronger, but Esbjerg are often strong at home. I personally skip this match, but if anything I would go for the home team here given the price.
Idea: 1 (AH +0) - 2.15 at Bet365
OB-Viborg
OB have been very volatile in their performances lately. After beating FC Copenhagen in a fine display, they were behind 4-0 at Esbjerg after only 35 minutes last weekend. In truth Esbjerg were incredibly efficient, but it does not change the picture of a OB defence that sometimes appear very fragile. On a positive note is the return of Oliver Lund on the right back, who will bring some stability into the defence. Offensively, OB have not been as strong lately, but with a player like Rasmus Falk to start the attacks, OB will always be dangerous. OB's best striker Rasmus Festersen misses the match with an injury. A loss, although OB's two alternatives Zohore and Jacobsen are of fine quality. Viborg are mainly focused on defending. They have done so in fine style, and it is actually only FC Midtjylland who have conceded less shots on target through the first 8 matches of the season. However, a meagre saving rate of 57.7% ranks Peter Friis as the poorest keeper in the league. Although I am not convinced by his quality, I am certain that this saving rate will converge towards a better saving rate with more games. Offensively, Viborg are the team that have created the fewest shots on target in the league (only 3.5 per match). Viborg's poor offensive display is in part explained by a poor start of offensive profile Serge Deble who is still without a goal after scoring 15 times in the 1st Division last season. I actually think Deble is hurtful for Viborg's attack, since he is very selfish and on several times he has wasted potentially quality chances due to not passing the ball to open teammates. Thus, Viborg have to rely mostly on set pieces. They have some tall and skilled headers in Mikkel Rask, Jeroen Veldmate and Ante Rukavina and they can surely hurt OB if they get a number of corners/free kicks.
OB have some better individuals, but if Viborg manage to shut down a player like Rasmus Falk and make the match physical, they have good chances. Was this match played at a neutral place, I would rank OB marginally stronger. After adjusting for home advantage, I land on 42-28-30, which means that there is no clear value to get anywhere. Closest is the home win, why I pick that. But look for market movements, value could arise.
Idea: 1 - 2.42 at Betfair
FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland
Thought FC Midtjylland would rest several players. They are not. They have a very strong team, a strong home field and they should dominate FC Nordsjælland who are traditionally weak away from home. Big value in my opinion, so hurry.
Further explanation:
Well, it is not entirely true. FC Midtjylland are resting Sviatchenko, Duncan and Bach Bak. However, they have very strong alternatives (among them two Under 21 internationals (Olsson and Banggaard) and the top goalscorer last season (Pusic)) and I honestly expected them to rest more players. It is not the case. Sure that the players could be a bit tired mentally and physically, but it is such a strong team that I can never give them less than 50% chance for a home win. They had a home record of 16-0-1 last season. FC Nordsjælland are nothing spectacular and they one of their best offensive players, Joshua John is on the bench after showing a poor attitude this season. They only have Bruninho to rely on, and although he is good, he cannot beat FC Midtjylland all by himself.
Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) - 2.00 at Bet365
FC Copenhagen-Hobro
FC Copenhagen have clinched two wins in a row and they are starting to gain confidence. They are just 3 points behind league leaders FC Midtjylland and there should be good reason for optimism. The team is very strong, although they have underperformed slightly so far. Nevertheless, they rank 2nd in the league based on SoTR (Shots on Target Ratio). Offensively, they have a lot of quality, and players like Nicolai Jørgensen and Federico Santander has the physique and footballing skills to challenge the hard working, but not impressive defence of Hobro. William Kvist returns from ban to bolster the central midfield. Hobro are last and they are also clearly last in terms of SoTR. They have lost some of the most vital players in the summer break, and they have signed a large number of new players. They have taken many gambles and we are still to see if it will pay off. In any case, I believe it will take some time to get congruence in the team. They won last weekend against AGF, but it was mainly due to an impressive efficiency. Left back Jakob Tjørnelund is injured.
FC Copenhagen lost 0-3 to Hobro in a home win last season. Much has changed in both teams since then. I am sure that FC Copenhagen won't underestimate Hobro as much this time. Hobro will try to defend all they can, but against Santander and Jørgensen I think it will be impossible to maintain the defensive shield. If FC Copenhagen scores early, I would not be suprised to see Hobro falling apart. Not big value here, but just enough to a recommendation.
Recommendation: 1 (AH -1.75) - 2.05 at Bet365
AaB-Brøndby
AaB have been performing quite inconsistently. At times they play splendid football, they are quick and technically strong. At other teams, they cannot connect the simplest passes. Today, it is really positive that Risgård returns in the midfield. He is a vital player. I am slightly concerned by Ahlmann playing the left back position. It is his first league start after a serious injury that have kept him out for a year. Offensively, they have seen better days, but will hope for success with the constellation of Spalvis and Enevoldsen. If I were to pick a goalscorer in the match I would go for Enevoldsen at odds 5.00 at Nordicbet. Brøndby started the season poorly, but has been improving since. They rank first in the league in terms of TSR (Total shots ratio) and they will surely finish higher than the current 7th place. They have not conceded in the last four matches, which should give some confidence. Negative is the absence of left back Durmisi, who has been playing great lately.
Risgård is back for AaB and that is surely good for them, but I still struggle to make them as big favorites as the bookies do here. Brøndby have been on top in several matches and confidence is high. I expect a vary even match. Also considered under here, but dangerous since the first goal can really set fire to the match.
Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) - 1.80 at Bet365
Esbjerg-Randers
Odds have moved a lot today. I was planning a bet on Randers earlier when AH +0 at odds 2.10 were available. However, much has changed since and for what reason? Esbjerg will be without two profiles, captain and central midfielder Magnus Lekven and striker Nicki Bille. Both with bans, but this has been known all week. Esbjerg have decent cover for Lekven and Bille who have not had a good season so far. However, they are known to have problems against Randers physical style. They will have to combine their way through the Randers defence with the likes of Fellah, Söder and Nielsen. Randers fielding the strongest team. Especially the striker duo of Ishak and Lundberg look dangerous.
I think Randers are slightly stronger, but Esbjerg are often strong at home. I personally skip this match, but if anything I would go for the home team here given the price.
Idea: 1 (AH +0) - 2.15 at Bet365
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