Week 31 Superliga preview

I have decided to go against motivation a few times here. I think the market is putting too much into it - it is Denmark, not Italy. Markets like motivation, so I won't be surprised if some of my picks see even higher prices close to kick-off. This is certainly a round, where you have your best chances of making profit by awaiting the line-ups. If some teams are rotating heavily, you might be able to get a good price.

SønderjyskE-OB

Friday 20/5 18.00

This is the easiest remaining match for SønderjyskE and they need a win here to maintain the fantastic 2nd place. Large home support is to be expected! SønderjyskE are playing with big motivation and have a great strategy. The overall quality of their side is nothing spectacular though, why it is impressive that they have not dropped more points. They have managed to win the tight matches and based on my stats, they rank as the luckiest side of 2016. SønderjyskE have defensive issues as injuries for Luijcx, Mussmann and Pereira probably force SønderjyskE to use newly signed Dickoh in the starting line-up. He has been without club for many months so it is clearly an issue, but otherwise they should be able to field the strongest line-up. OB missed out on a chance to join the top runners by being the first team to lose to Hobro in 2016. OB were inefficient, which is quite unusual as the opposite has been the case in 2016. OB have a very strong front line, which should be able to create problems for every opponent. Defensively, they have looked fairly good in 2016, but captain and central defender Jonasson is doubtful here – an issue if he is not playing.

There is a big difference in motivation, but I think that OB have too good a team to get a price around 5 for beating SønderjyskE. OB have won 7 out of 15 away games this season, and they do like to lurk on the counter-attacking opportunities, which they should get here. I have had success with OB several times in the away games this season, and go for it once again here. OB are so boom-or-bust that I don’t like the protection for draw.

Recommendation: 2 – 5.05 at Cashpoint

FC Nordsjælland-AGF

Saturday 21/5 16.00

Fight for 8th position. Who cares? FC Nordsjælland don’t seem to care. They have allowed offensive ace Mor to join the Turkish national team ahead of the Euro 2016, but it leaves the team without offensive power given the injury for John. Fortunately, veteran winger Mikkelsen finally seem to be back from an injury. FC Nordsjælland have many young players, but they have done fairly well this season. AGF have two straight wins (7-1 score) and finally get some points after playing well during 2016. I hold them as a stronger side than FC Nordsjælland, but they have some issues here as regular midfielder Pedersen is out and the same could be the case with fellow midfielder Bjarnason. If that is the case, AGF will lack some strength in the centre of the pitch.

Given FC Nordsjælland’s lack of offensive weapons, I think that AGF deserve to be small favourites here. Unfortunately, the bookies agree with me, so no value to get here. Although the lack of importance could lead to many goals, I think the match-up favours few goals. Therefore, I like the under 2.5 goals here.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.06 at Unibet

Randers-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 22/5 13.00

For me, this is a match between the 2nd best side of 2016 (Randers) against the 2nd best side of the season (FC Midtjylland). Randers have created a lot in 2016. I think they have been the best side in almost every match they have played, but not really got points accordingly. They have solid offensive weapons combined with a strong defence. The defence has only allowed 51 shots in the penalty box in 2016, which is lowest in the league. FC Midtjylland need points here to get a spot in Europe next season. Their performances have been rather inconsistent of late. They do not impress me currently, although I acknowledge that they have a side which in the long-run should perform a lot better than now. FC Midtjylland have a good record against Randers, they have won the last 6 six head-to-head matches.

Randers started to give some other players the chance in the last match. Could Todd do so again here? This frightens me; otherwise I would have liked Randers to win as they have looked strong lately. This is a match, where line-ups are vital. I decide to trust my model, which is screaming draw, although it is result that probably won’t be too satisfying for FC Midtjylland.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Sportingbet

Hobro-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 22/5 16.00

I think Hobro are happy to get this match. They are relegated, so now they are only playing to get some good experiences to finish the season. This will certainly mean fans on the stands. Hobro got their first win of 2016 last weekend. It was lucky, but it should give Hobro some confidence. FC Copenhagen just won the title, so they have been partying. Can they pick up the motivation for this match? They will be without two of the players securing motivation, central midfielders Kvist and Delaney, and they could lack power in the centre of the pitch, and most importantly the influence of two of the most driven players. FC Copenhagen are still far better than Hobro, and they should dominate the match.

It concerns me that FC Copenhagen are playing the first match after winning the title without Delaney and Kvist. Otherwise, I am pretty sure they would be professional and win this easily. Now, it is less certain, but I would still be surprised if FC Copenhagen don’t win this. Surely not a big value pick though.

Idea: 2 – 1.45 at Tipico

AaB-Esbjerg

Sunday 22/5 18.00

Three straight wins are probably needed for AaB if they aim to get into Europe. They start with the easiest match here. AaB have played rather poorly in many matches in 2016. Some players have not been at their best and it is of massive importance for a team like AaB with a strong starting line-up and a weak bench. Risgård has suffered from sickness lately, but should finally be back in the starting line-up, allowing AaB to field the strongest side. Esbjerg have been terrible in 2016. They started of nicely in terms of points, but it was driven by luck. Luck has now faded and Esbjerg are starting to lose. In fact, they have lost the last four matches, and not looked good while doing so. Many injuries are a big reason and although players are starting to return, they need to build some consistency. On paper, they are good players though, and Esbjerg definitely should get more points based on their squad.

I am pretty sure AaB will have the most chances in this match, but the odds for home win are not impressive. Odds above 7 are just way too high for Esbjerg, who would certainly like to finish their abysmal streak. High odds, small stakes: idea pick.

Idea: 2 – 7.10 at Cashpoint

Brøndby-Viborg

Monday 23/5 19.00

The last second winner for Brøndby last weekend could be crucial. Now the road for Europe is wide open and they have a rather easy schedule, but they need a win in a match like this. Brøndby have not impressed me under new head coach Skarbalius. He is making some peculiar decisions and seem to favour physical players with attitude instead of the best player available. The stats suggest that Brøndby are playing with the quality of a mid-table side and this is also my impression. Brøndby will miss out on key left back Durmisi who is banned. Viborg have nothing to play for, but they would surely like to win in Brøndby. I have my doubts as to whether they are capable. They started 2016 strongly, but after picking up injuries to offensive profiles Akharraz and Deble, they started to suffer. Deble has since returned, but he is banned here. Without him, I only think Viborg have winger Kamper as a real offensive threat, and the lack of weapons but extra pressure on a defence that is strong, but not invincible. Adding to this, powerful defensive central midfielder Grønning is banned.

Brøndby should win here given Viborg’s lack of offensive power, but like the match with AaB I think odds are too low for the side with motivation. Instead, I think a low scoring match is a more attractive bet. Brøndby are fairly defensive minded under Skarbalius, while Viborg are without their strongest offensive cards could struggle to find the net. In a week with poor options, this is my Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: Under 2.5 goals - 2.06 at Unibet