Week 28 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-Esbjerg

Friday 5/5 18.00

SønderjyskE like to call themselves the Leicester of Denmark due to their unexpected success and their mentality of only talking about the next match. They have done extremely well, mainly due to a strategy to which the players are very committed. Furthermore, they have also had some luck to take wins in the tight games. In any case, SønderjyskE deserve a lot of respect for what they have done. They are average when it comes to chance creation, but have had success due to a great efficiency in front of goal. I don’t think they can continue being so efficient, so we might see them starting to get some issues. Nicolaj Madsen who has been an offensive profile returns from a ban here. Esbjerg are stuck in the bottom. They started 2016 with some good results, but it was fuelled by an unsustainable saving percentage. The chance creation was very poor, but it has actually improve in recent matches. However, Esbjerg’s luck has come to an end, why they have had problems earning points lately. It will be even more difficult here as a number of bans have been added to Esbjerg’s lost list of injury-absent players. Midfielders Paulsen (regular) and Fellah (back-up) and central defender Stenderup (regular) are banned, while midfielder and captain Lekven(vital) is a new injury addition. On the positive side is the likely return of important midfielders Andersen and Jørgensen from injuries. The defensive absence of Stenderup is particularly concerning as Esbjerg will be forced to field a very young central defence with Lund and Brinch.

Esbjerg have had serious problems with SønderjyskE lately. They don’t like their physical style. Furthermore, the number of injuries gives serious problems as Esbjerg are forced to field a number of young players. The odds for the home side have already dropped a lot and question is where the bottom is. It all depends on the Esbjerg line-up tomorrow. If Andersen and Jørgensen are back, Esbjerg should be a good bet. If not, Esbjerg are in a really shitty situation and there should still be some value on the home side. No bet for me at current odds, but the safest choice currently would be SønderjyskE as I expect odds to drop even more on the home side if Jørgensen and Andersen are out – and not so much the other way if not.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.75) – 2.00 at Bet365

Randers-Hobro

Saturday 6/5 15.00

Randers have been looking strong throughout 2016. I think they should have earned more points, as they have been the strongest team in almost every game they have played this year. Randers head coach Todd has just announced that he will quit at the end of the season, which could make players less focused as they are not playing for the head coach for next season. Otherwise I think Randers have a complete side with physically strong players in all lines. Central midfielder Allansson misses the match with an injury. Hobro are going down, but the players might find some motivation in playing against the local big brother. Several players in the Hobro squad have played in Randers and would love to take a win here. Hobro will welcome back several regulars who missed the last match with bans. Central midfielder Damborg and backs Tjørnelund and Bøge are important additions for this match. Unfortunately, offensive ace Antipas is out for the season. Hobro have been the poorest team in 2016, but with they have played some close matches lately. If they continue to play like this, they will surely get a victory soon.

Randers deserve to be big favourites as they are far better. But I actually think the current odds are too low. The departure of Todd and the limited motivation mean that Randers might show up in an unfocused version. If that is the case, Hobro in close to strongest formation might get something here. This is only an idea pick, as I don’t trust Hobro this season.

Idea: 2 (AH +1.5) – 1.85 at Bet365

Viborg-AaB

Sunday 7/5 13.00

Viborg have obtained some good results of late, despite dropping in performance. They started 2016 strongly, but after picking up injuries for offensive aces Akharraz and Deble, I think they have been limited severely offensively. The lack of offensive power has put the defence under pressure. Deble was back in the last match but left with an injury, so I expect him to be out here too. Defensively, Viborg have committed and hard working players in a strong organisation, but I find it difficult to see how they will challenge the opponent without Akharraz and Deble. AaB finally showed some of the stuff that made them so strong in autumn. They completely outplayed Brøndby last weekend (won 3-0) and with everyone fit and nice pitches, they could pick up their great offensive play.

AaB probably have the strongest offense in the league on the good days. Based on last weekend, the good days could be back on. On the other hand, Viborg are struggling with injuries for key offensive players. I expect AaB to be the strongest team here. Despite the odds have dropped, I think it is enough to merit some value.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 2.00 at Bet365

OB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 7/5 16.00

OB have a magnificent offense, but it is very dependent on all three key players (Falk, Festersen and Jacobsen) being available. Unfortunately for the home side, Falk is banned here. He picked up a stupid yellow card in the last match – maybe on purpose as he is leaving for FC Copenhagen at the end of the season. I think OB have been rather lucky throughout 2015 as they have earned many points from despite not playing well, but they have really been efficient with Jacobsen as the big goal-getter. Defensively, OB will be without right back Lund, but he is a marginal player and should be replaceable. FC Copenhagen won the cup this Thursday after an unspectacular performance (2-1 against AGF), but it was enough. FC Copenhagen rotated a bit, so I expect them to be back in strongest formation here, although some key players like Jørgensen and Delaney could be fatigued. Important winger Kusk left the cup final with an injury and he is likely to be out here.

FC Copenhagen are clearly the strongest team, but question is how focused they are. OB have actually won the last two home games against FC Copenhagen after physical matches, but OB are without Falk here which should significantly limit their chances. However, odds are really low for the away side here, so I won’t go there. Instead, I think a low scoring match could be in store. The last four head-to-head matches in Odense have ended with only one goal. OB are without their biggest offensive profile and FC Copenhagen are probably a bit fatigued so they won’t go for the big win.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-AGF

Sunday 7/5 18.00

FC Midtjylland saw their hopes of the title vanish with a 5-3 loss against FC Copenhagen last weekend. The result also saw the end to a positive spiral for the home side who were starting to add more points after getting some consistency. FC Midtjylland are still among the strongest in the league, and in their own mind, anything else than the 2nd place will be hugely disappointing. Therefore they really need to pick up some points now and this is a must-win match. No new absences for FC Midtjylland who should be able to field a fairly strong starting eleven. AGF lost the cup final on Thursday. It was the big match of the season, so it was a huge disappointment. Now they return to the league where they have nothing to play for. They do need a win soon as the first 9 league matches under head coach Riddersholm, the former FC Midtjylland coach, have resulted in no wins. AGF will be challenged by absences though. Vital striker Morten Duncan, and important midfielders Olsen and Bjarnason are all banned here. AGF will find it difficult to replace these players who are among the head coach’s favourites. AGF have actually played fine for most of 2016, but they concede goals to easily - especially on set pieces. Therefore, it will be a big problem to face FC Midtjylland who are known for their strength a set pieces.

FC Midtjylland with high motivation and no new absences against AGF who have low motivation and a long list of injuries. It does look like a home win. Despite the current low odds, I think it is value and I would personally go for a win by more than one goal. Unibet offer a nice price and I think it deserves a recommendation.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.45 at Unibet

Brøndby-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 8/5 19.00

Brøndby played one of their famous poor away games in Aalborg. It happens occationally, I don’t understand why, but Brøndby have some away matches, where they simply don’t show up (also happened against SønderjyskE earlier in 2016). The question is how much to put into it. They are surely not impressive offensively under head coach Skarbalius, but the defensive part has looked good for most of the time. At home, things are typically different, and I don’t think we will see the same low level for Brøndby here. Brøndby will be without the defensive midfielder Austin due to a ban and central defender Albrechtsen due to injury. Creative midfielder Kahlenberg missed the last match with injury. It is still unclear whether he returns here. If so, it will be a massive boost to the home side. FC Nordsjælland fielded the youngest formation in the history of the Superliga last weekend. With an average age of just around 21 years, it seemed like head coach Hjulmand was experimenting to see which talents to count on next season. FC Nordsjælland have nothing to play for, so it is a good chance to test a few things. It will be interesting to see if Hjulmand will do the same thing here, or he will pick older players instead. The young team did okay, but was put under pressure in the last match, so I think they will be stronger with the usual starters. Key offensive player Mor is out with a ban. This will limit FC Nordsjælland’s offensive production severely as Mor is able to attract attention from many opposing players with his quick feet.

If you look at motivation, this is clearly Brøndby’s match to win. If you look at team news, it is more even on the bad news for both sides. Will FC Nordsjælland experiment with a young line-up again? I don’t know, but I would personally prefer going for the home side here. Low stakes in case Kahlenberg should be out again.

Idea:  1 – 1.85 at Tipico