Thoughts for Week 7

Again only short previews for each match this week due to time constraints.

AGF-Esbjerg
AGF have started the season very well and fans are very optimistic at the moment. Combined with the "Aarhus Festival" just starting, I lot of (optimistic) fans are expected at the stadium. This should be an advantage for the home team who are without injuries. Esbjerg have received four points after changing coach, but they were lucky to beat FC Nordsjælland and got a draw against a semi-reserve FC Midtjylland side. Do not get carried away by the results. Esbjerg are mostly focused on defending in this new 4-5-1 formation and not taking unnecessary risk in order to cover for the abysmal defence. I see the two teams as almost even in terms of strength, but AGF have a clear home advantage here. The referee is not among the most experienced, which could also help the home side.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) - 1.825 at Bet365


SønderjyskE-Viborg
SønderjyskE have started the season remarkably well with a new coach and several new players. However, they are still a counter attacking side who prefer to counter-attack rather than dominate. That could be a problem here, since Viborg will arrive with a defensive outset. SønderjyskE have a fairly good starting eleven, but are plagued by injuries, so only two decent replacements are available on the bench. The many people missing should be hurtful for the preparations for this match. Viborg are very strong defensively. Only FC Copenhagen and FC Midtjylland have conceded less shots on target. At the same time they have some strong counter-attacking threats that could make life difficult for SønderjyskE if they are too offensive. Negative is the absence of left back and captain Christopher Poulsen who is banned. His abilities are not extraordinary, but his influence could be. I suspect a low scoring and very even match here.

Idea: X2 - 1.75 at Tipico


AaB-Randers
AaB really played great last weekend (5-1 win). They benefitted from having a full squad ready. This should also be the case here, although there are slight worries about striker Spalvis. However, the match surely won't be as easy as against OB that were very poor at the back. Randers are not playing very well though. They are not as strong as usual in the central midfield, and offensively they could struggle if striker Mikael Ishak is not fit to play (doubtful). AaB have momentum and are playing solid football at the moment. I think it is just around value to go for home win at the moment, but look for starting line-ups. Whether Spalvis and Ishak are playing could move a few percentages.

Idea: 1 - 2.34 at Betfair

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby
FC Nordsjælland have to rebound from a comical defeat to 1st Division club Næstved in the cup in midweek. They lost 1-0 despite playing 11 against 9 for 60 minutes! FC Nordsjælland have a lot of talent, but also some clear weaknesses: lack of physique in the midfield and sometimes a quite poor attitude. They will meet Brøndby who are quite reminiscent in the way of playing and I suspect a quite even match. Brøndby are also very volatile in the performances. One week they play really well and the next they are shockingly poor, but if anything the underlying form seems to be upward sloping. No important injury news for either team. I will skip this match, but looking at the stats (over 2.5 goals in 8/12 matches played by the two teams this season) and considering that both teams are stronger in attack than defence, there seems to be a fine price for goals here.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 2.06 at Betfair

OB-FC Copenhagen
OB have been receiving way too much goodwill this season. They have only been the better team in the first match at home against Hobro. They rank lowest in the league based on SoTR (40%) and are the team in the league that has conceded most shots on target and goals. Their defense is abysmal and selling Kasper Larsen to Groningen was not a bright move + left back Kirkeskov is banned here. Alternative Diarra is horrendous and OB have lost all nine matches he has started, including a 5-1 loss last weekend. Strong attack, but key offensive player Rasmus Falk is hampered by a minor injury. FC Copenhagen are receiving a lot of critique. I don't get it. They were quite poor in the last match against AGF (2-2), but otherwise they have looked quite strong. League's 2nd best team based on SoTR (56%). They will benefit from the return of central midfielder Daniel Amartey, although fellow midfielder Thomas Delaney is suspended. FC Copenhagen have a strong attack and I think it will be impossible for OB to shut down. I have them as pretty clear favorites here. Should be value until 1.75!

Tip of the Week: 2 - 1.85 at Unibet

UPDATE: Central defender (and captain) Hallgrimur Jonasson is doubtful for OB - adds a lot of value if he is missing, since OB will then have a horrendous defence.

FC Midtjylland-Hobro
FC Midtjylland will rest a few players but still a strong line-up. They should win this. Hobro are not good, but look to benefit from having the defence back in strongest formation. I have problems seeing Hobro scoring here, since FC Midtjylland give away so few chances, while Hobro have been rather incapable of creating chances without all the goal scoring players from last season. The best bet is in my opinion Hobro not to score.

Idea: Hobro not to score - 1.77 at Unibet