Thoughts for Week 7

Again only short previews for each match this week due to time constraints.

AGF-Esbjerg
AGF have started the season very well and fans are very optimistic at the moment. Combined with the "Aarhus Festival" just starting, I lot of (optimistic) fans are expected at the stadium. This should be an advantage for the home team who are without injuries. Esbjerg have received four points after changing coach, but they were lucky to beat FC Nordsjælland and got a draw against a semi-reserve FC Midtjylland side. Do not get carried away by the results. Esbjerg are mostly focused on defending in this new 4-5-1 formation and not taking unnecessary risk in order to cover for the abysmal defence. I see the two teams as almost even in terms of strength, but AGF have a clear home advantage here. The referee is not among the most experienced, which could also help the home side.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) - 1.825 at Bet365


SønderjyskE-Viborg
SønderjyskE have started the season remarkably well with a new coach and several new players. However, they are still a counter attacking side who prefer to counter-attack rather than dominate. That could be a problem here, since Viborg will arrive with a defensive outset. SønderjyskE have a fairly good starting eleven, but are plagued by injuries, so only two decent replacements are available on the bench. The many people missing should be hurtful for the preparations for this match. Viborg are very strong defensively. Only FC Copenhagen and FC Midtjylland have conceded less shots on target. At the same time they have some strong counter-attacking threats that could make life difficult for SønderjyskE if they are too offensive. Negative is the absence of left back and captain Christopher Poulsen who is banned. His abilities are not extraordinary, but his influence could be. I suspect a low scoring and very even match here.

Idea: X2 - 1.75 at Tipico


AaB-Randers
AaB really played great last weekend (5-1 win). They benefitted from having a full squad ready. This should also be the case here, although there are slight worries about striker Spalvis. However, the match surely won't be as easy as against OB that were very poor at the back. Randers are not playing very well though. They are not as strong as usual in the central midfield, and offensively they could struggle if striker Mikael Ishak is not fit to play (doubtful). AaB have momentum and are playing solid football at the moment. I think it is just around value to go for home win at the moment, but look for starting line-ups. Whether Spalvis and Ishak are playing could move a few percentages.

Idea: 1 - 2.34 at Betfair

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby
FC Nordsjælland have to rebound from a comical defeat to 1st Division club Næstved in the cup in midweek. They lost 1-0 despite playing 11 against 9 for 60 minutes! FC Nordsjælland have a lot of talent, but also some clear weaknesses: lack of physique in the midfield and sometimes a quite poor attitude. They will meet Brøndby who are quite reminiscent in the way of playing and I suspect a quite even match. Brøndby are also very volatile in the performances. One week they play really well and the next they are shockingly poor, but if anything the underlying form seems to be upward sloping. No important injury news for either team. I will skip this match, but looking at the stats (over 2.5 goals in 8/12 matches played by the two teams this season) and considering that both teams are stronger in attack than defence, there seems to be a fine price for goals here.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 2.06 at Betfair

OB-FC Copenhagen
OB have been receiving way too much goodwill this season. They have only been the better team in the first match at home against Hobro. They rank lowest in the league based on SoTR (40%) and are the team in the league that has conceded most shots on target and goals. Their defense is abysmal and selling Kasper Larsen to Groningen was not a bright move + left back Kirkeskov is banned here. Alternative Diarra is horrendous and OB have lost all nine matches he has started, including a 5-1 loss last weekend. Strong attack, but key offensive player Rasmus Falk is hampered by a minor injury. FC Copenhagen are receiving a lot of critique. I don't get it. They were quite poor in the last match against AGF (2-2), but otherwise they have looked quite strong. League's 2nd best team based on SoTR (56%). They will benefit from the return of central midfielder Daniel Amartey, although fellow midfielder Thomas Delaney is suspended. FC Copenhagen have a strong attack and I think it will be impossible for OB to shut down. I have them as pretty clear favorites here. Should be value until 1.75!

Tip of the Week: 2 - 1.85 at Unibet

UPDATE: Central defender (and captain) Hallgrimur Jonasson is doubtful for OB - adds a lot of value if he is missing, since OB will then have a horrendous defence.

FC Midtjylland-Hobro
FC Midtjylland will rest a few players but still a strong line-up. They should win this. Hobro are not good, but look to benefit from having the defence back in strongest formation. I have problems seeing Hobro scoring here, since FC Midtjylland give away so few chances, while Hobro have been rather incapable of creating chances without all the goal scoring players from last season. The best bet is in my opinion Hobro not to score.

Idea: Hobro not to score - 1.77 at Unibet

Week 6 round-up

First of all, sorry for not making full previews this week, but time was short. It generally is at the moment, so I am tempted to continue with rather short previews. The bets were no huge success. Our Tip of the Week failed as SønderjyskE played their worst game of the season. AaB secured some success with a solid 5-1 win for the only other recommendation of the round. Below you can find our betting stats.

Thoughts for Week 6

Time has been sparse this week, so no detailed previews this time around. Instead, I will just share my thoughts for every match:

Hobro-FC Nordsjælland
This match will be all about motivation. Hobro are surely motivated, but FC Nordsjælland have the better team. However, they often struggle with motivation away from home, and if Hobro are able to psych them out with a physical style, they could suffer another away loss. Hobro have had one really good game this season, but it was against a team that was resembling FC Nordsjælland. I would go for the home side if anything here, although their recent form is not remarkable, but FC Nordsjælland's poor morale and away performance scares me. However, the best bet seem to be the strong striker Mayron George to score. He starts alone on top and he will finish when possible. His size and physique could also be a problem for Maxsø and Gregor in the FC Nordsjælland defence.

Idea: George to score - odds 5.00 at Nordicbet

Randers-Viborg
Local rivalry. Randers with very complete team and a good start to the season. They are clear favorites here, but minus that they sold striker Brock-Madsen to Birmingham during the week. Unclear if replacement Ishak is in good form after his injury. Viborg struggling to create something offensively other than from set pieces, which Randers are fairly good at. Viborg are strong at the back nevertheless (don't put too much into the 0-4 defeat to Brøndby). Under is not interesting at the price as an early goal really could make this match explosive. Personally I skip this match, but if I had to make a pick I would go for Viborg not to lose big here.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) - 1.69 at Unibet

Brøndby-SønderjyskE
These teams are on each end of the morale scale: SønderjyskE with a very strong start to the season, while Brøndby have been terrible and lost 5-0 at PAOK Saloniki in midweek. That alone should be enough to place a bet on SønderjyskE at 4.10. However, SønderjyskE are also a strong counter-attacking team. They are physically strong and they could really hurt Brøndby's fragile defence. Brøndby with a very attacking formation, which seems a bit dangerous in my opinion given SønderjyskE's counter-attacking strength. SønderjyskE with some injuries, but mainly a problem for the strength of the bench.

Tip of the Week: 2 - 4.10 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-AGF
This will be interesting. FC Copenhagen without two of the normal midfield starters, Verbic and Amartey. Not all too impressed by their midfield today, but they have a strong attack that should cause problems for AGF. AGF with a defensive approach, but they a rather weak backline. They will hope that their solid midfield can save them. I have some doubts. In any case, I believe this match will be low scoring. FC Copenhagen rarely go for big wins and AGF's offense is not spectacular.

Idea: Under 2.5 - 1.95 at Bet365

Esbjerg-FC Midtjylland
Not very impressed by Esbjerg. I think they were lucky to get their first win in FC Nordsjælland, scoring twice on three shots on target. Still a very weak back line and only playing with one striker in order to protect the defense. FC Midtjylland resting half the team in order to be ready to the rematch versus Southampton next week. Difficult match to assess as this FC Midtjylland team have not played together, but I still see them as slim favorites here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) - 1.90 at Bet365

AaB-OB
AaB in strongest line-up. Würtz and Pedersen are returning and they look very strong. OB with very weak backline. Diarra is set to start in the central defence and he has no sense of defensive organisation, perhaps that is the reason they have lost the last eight matches with him as a starter. Add to this that OB's offensive profile Rasmus Falk has a minor injury that could hamper his performance. In any case, it will be a match where both teams seem stronger offensively than defensively, so goals should be in store here.

Recommendation: 1 - 2.00 at Tipico
Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 1.82 at Betfair

Will be updated with other matches later.

Week 5 round-up

A pretty poor round. We got a correct #Twitbet which made it look better, but we had some pretty bad misses (Viborg and Hobro) after a good start to the season. However, it is up and down sometimes. We (and our followers) should find comfort in the excellent closing odds for our tips. We are good at capturing the market movements and it is only a matter of time before we benefit in terms of payoff.

Our picks this round:
FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen 1 at 2.70 - ended around 2.50
AGF-AaB 1 at 2.90 - ended around 2.75 (but was further down until AGF published a line-up without two regulars)
FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg 1 at 2.40 - ended around 2.35
Viborg-Brøndby 1 at 3.60 - ended around 3.00
OB-Randers 2 at 2.85 - ended around 2.30
SønderjyskE-Hobro X2 at 2.075 - ended around 2.30 (in retrospect a poor bet)

So 5 out of 6 of our bets ended at lower odds (significantly lower for some) and this is how it typically is for our picks. Over time this has too evolve into nice profit. Otherwise it will be an profitable betting strategy to wait for closing odds and bet the opposite of us.

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen preview

Friday 14/8 18.00

This match will decide who will be the favourite to win the title. FC Midtjylland (1st) have had a perfect start to their league season with four wins. They have not been as good offensively as last season, but they are very strong defensively – which is also why they have only conceded one goal. Offensively, they rely a lot on winger Pione Sisto to make something extraordinary. Otherwise, they lack some breakthrough strength and the departure of Sylvester Igboun seems to be hurting. Influential players, right back Kristian Bach Bak and midfielder Petter Andersson missed the last match with minor injuries and will probably do all to return to this vital match. FC Copenhagen (4th) have also had a decent start to the league. Unfortunately, some stupid decisions in the last match proved costly as FC Copenhagen received an early red card plus made all three substitutions way to early with the end result being to play 9 against 11 for the last half hour. In that light, a 1-1 draw against FC Nordsjælland was impressive. Unfortunately, they will miss the suspended midfielder Daniel Amartey who is very important for the defensive work as he is probably the best ball-winner in the league. Central defender Pelle Nilsson is also injured, so FC Copenhagen lack some quality on the bench here. The starting eleven is very strong though and should be capable of putting up a good fight.

This is undoubtedly a match between the two best teams in the league. FC Midtjylland are somewhat weaker than last season, while FC Copenhagen seem stronger. However, FC Midtjylland are a quality home team (16-0-1 last season) and against a FC Copenhagen team without Amartey they should be slight favourites. But this is set to be an even and intense match.

Idea: 1 – 2.70 at Danske Spil

AGF-AaB preview

Saturday 15/8 16.00

AGF (2nd) are placed too high in the table at the moment. They have had a quite easy schedule combined with some luck. Despite of this, they have performed above my expectations. They are fairly strong on the ball due to their midfield of quality footballers. They have some weaknesses. The central defence and goalkeeper are not very good, while they also struggle a bit in creating chances (although they have been scoring quite a few goals so far). They are without injury problems. AaB (8th) have had a quite disappointing start to the season. They have major problems in front of goal. They have only scored three goals this season, all three from the central midfield. The strikers are without confidence and in the last match, AaB hardly created a chance (2-0 vs. FC Midtjylland). In that match, AaB also suffered from the absence of the vital midfielders Rasmus Würtz and Kasper Risgård. There is some hope that both could return here, but they will probably be hampered by their minor injuries. Defensively, AaB could improve with the return of Kasper Pedersen who has been out all matches this season.

AaB have been rather unimpressive in the last two matches where FC Nordsjælland and FC Midtjylland have dominated them. AGF are not an easy team to beat and AaB could really get in trouble if Würtz and Risgård are not at their best (or worse: not playing). The strikers are without confidence, so even though AGF are fairly weak at the back, I don’t expect AaB to take advantage of it. I see this match as completely even, so fine value in a home win.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.90 at Cashpoint

UPDATE: Würtz won't play. Risgård expected to start, but probably not capable of playing 90 minutes. For AGF, regulars Mate Vatsadze (striker) and Daniel Pedersen (central midfielder) are both doubtful, which is not the best news for our bet since they have both played a significant part in AGF's good start to the season.

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg preview

Sunday 16/8 13.30

FC Nordsjælland (10th) took an unexpected point at FC Copenhagen. However, given the circumstances (playing 11 against 9 at the end) they should probably have gone for more, but confidence is clearly not on top yet. However, they have earned points in the last two matches and they have improved the quality of their play remarkably. The addition of Brazilian striker Bruninho has really helped. Bruninho has some great abilities: strong, technical and great finisher. A real quality signing that will earn FC Nordsjælland several extra points this season. He has scored in the past two matches and he will look for a hattrick here. FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team at own artificial turf. Esbjerg (12th) took a beating at home to SønderjyskE (0-4) as we predicted with last weeks Tip of the Week. This has led to the departure of head coach Niels Frederiksen. I have my doubts with the temporary replacement Michael Pedersen (former assistant) who is not known for his tactical abilities, but more for being the nice guy in the locker room. This is probably not what Esbjerg need in a situation where some radical tactical changes are needed to protect a terrible defence. All four goals conceded last weekend could be blamed on poor defending.  Esbjerg were forced to use a winger on the right back position last weekend and could be forced to do the same here. Offensively, they are strong though, so they should be able to threaten FC Nordsjælland if they have any confidence left.

The situation is not looking good for Esbjerg at the moment. It is difficult to see how they will cope with attacking forces of Bruninho and Joshua John. FC Nordsjælland should be able to dominate this match and take advantage of the miserable state of Esbjerg.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.40 at Sportingbet

Viborg-Brøndby preview

Sunday 16/8 16.00

Viborg (6th) are very difficult to beat. They are strong at the back and incredibly hard working in order to compensate for lacking technical skills. They are not just a hard working team though, they also have the speedy Serge Deble in the attack and he should be able to threaten all opposing defences with his speed. Over the course of the season, we should expect to see most Viborg goals coming from Deble or set pieces. Brøndby (11th) got their first point of the season after a impressive comeback in Randers (3-3). The match probed that Brøndby are on the right track. Their attack started to work better, but the defence is a liability. I am not all that impressed by new goalkeeper Frederik Rønnow, who did not convince the last time he was given the chance in the Superliga (for Esbjerg). On the positive side, central defender Daniel Agger is soon returning, which will be a major improvement to the backline. This match might be just a bit too early though.

What will win? Technique or physique? Brøndby are a better football team and experiencing an improvement in form, so they should be favourites here surely. However, Viborg are very difficult to beat (did not lose a single match at home in the 1st Division last season) due to their attitude and hard work. If they can obtain some set piece situations, Brøndby could get some severe problems. I believe Brøndby are a bit overrated here.

Idea: 1 – 3.60 at Unibet

OB-Randers preview

Sunday 16/8 18.00

OB (3rd) have had a good start to the season with some good results, that have made fans and media very positive. It is especially OB’s strong attacking production with the likes of Rasmus Falk and Rasmus Festersen that has impressed. The problem is the defence, which is quite weak, and the situation in the goal is not good either. 1st choice goalkeeper Michael Falkesgaard left last match with a serious injury and OB will need to find a new keeper fast or led youngster Casper Radza get his first start. OB seem a bit overrated; they have actually only been the better team in one match this season (home match against Hobro). Randers (7th) have been uncharacteristically poor in defending which has probably left them 5 points shorter than what they should have been. They should have earned more since they have looked fairly good in all three matches and really been strong offensively with in-form Viktor Lundberg as the standout player. Last seasons top goalscorer, Mikael Ishak, returns from injury, while midfielders Mustafa Amini and Kasper Fisker are still banned.

OB have earned a lot of goodwill from the locals and will probably get good support here. However, Randers look like a much more complete team without as obvious weaknesses as OB. This could be a even match, and if we were to pick a winner, it would be Randers.

Idea: 2 – 2.85 at Unibet