Week 18 round-up

2015 is over. It was not to become one for the history books for Superligabets. A bad spring was followed by a mediocre autumn. This has been a personal low point when it comes to Superliga-betting. Therefore it was nice to see the last round ending with a big surplus as it hopefully signals better times ahead next season. A good surplus led to a plus for the season, which I aim to keep up in 2016. I hope you enjoyed reading the previews throughout the season, although the profit was not as expected. Feedback is always welcome, so let me know if there is something you desire from Superligabets or if you simply just enjoy the previews.

Week 18 Superliga previews

AGF-FC Midtjylland

AGF are among the weakest teams in the league at the moment. They lack unity and some quality in attack and defence. They have played several decent matches lately, but they are not winning due to the lack of efficiency in both ends. Especially the goalkeeper Rasmussen is a big liability since he lacks height (and also holds the lowest saving rate in the league), he should get in trouble against FC Midtjylland’s renowned set pieces. No injury or suspension worries. FC Midtjylland, the reigning champions, got a much-needed break with the postponement of their match last weekend. Now they have had a weekend to get fully back to gear mentally and physically. They are still bothered by a handful of injuries and doubtful players (Duncan and Sisto), while right back Rømer is banned here. Overall they still have a very strong central axis with Sviatchenko and Hansen at back, Sparv and Poulsen in midfield and a solid striker (Pusic, Duncan or Onuachu) on top.

AGF have only won one match in the last 14 games. FC Midtjylland are a top team that although they have been lacking confidence lately, should arrive to this match with renewed energy. FC Midtjylland have a good history against AGF, having won the last four head-to-heads with a 11-0 score. I happily accept the current price for the away team here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.90 at Bet365

Hobro-Randers

Ove Pedersen got a very bad start in charge of Hobro as the failed to create a single shot on target against SønderjyskE last weekend. Actually quite concerning as Hobro had their strong offensive trio back. Pedersen could need a winter break to get his ideas fully into play. Hobro have a rather vulnerable defence, but Pedersen is likely to take a defensive minded approach to protect it. Midfielder Sane is banned. Randers have had a slightly disappointing season after a great performance in the last season. They have not been as consistent as usually, perhaps due to a number of bans and injuries constantly forcing changes. For this match, strong winger Borring (6 goals this season) is out with a ban, while two central defenders, Agesen and Tverskov, are injured forcing young Bager into action.

This is a local derby and it is usually intense and tight matches between the two. Randers have a stronger team and deserve to be favourites, but I don’t see Hobro being humiliated here. Given the price, I think the home side is the most interesting.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.75) – 1.85 at Bet365

Esbjerg-SønderjyskE

Esbjerg provided the first signs of improvement against OB after a miserable season. They lost 2-1 but were dominant before the break, where there high pressing strategy really paid off. It seems like they are starting to get a direction as to how to play under new head coach Jonas Dal. Central defender Stenderup returns from ban, but he is unlikely to be a big help to a very weak backline. He replaces fellow defender Almebäck who is banned. Esbjerg improved a lot in midfield with the return of Jeppe Andersen from a long injury break. SønderjyskE have over-performed this season. They have been quite efficient; especially winger Absalonsen is red-hot at the moment. SønderjyskE don’t have the quality to beat the strongest teams in the league, but they are really good against the rest of the teams as they are great at implementing their strategy (defensive commitment and counter-attacking). SønderjyskE have some injuries, but nothing new.

SønderjyskE won the last match in Esbjerg 4-0. We had it as Tip of the Week at 3.70. This time the price of away win is 3.00. It is certainly not a good match-up for Esbjerg and it is no coincidence they have lost the last two matches against SønderjyskE’s dangerous counter-attackers. Pick the away win here, although the price is not big value this time. Over is also a good idea when Esbjerg are one of the teams. I expect both teams to go for three points, which increase the chance of a high-scoring attack.

Idea: 2 – 3.00 at Nordicbet

Over 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

UPDATE: Andersen and central defender Jakobsen are both absent here. Especially the former is bad news for the home team and can explain the drop in odds for the away team.

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby

FC Nordsjælland are really struggling due to absence of key players. Striker Bruninho who is team top goalscorer and offensive star is doubtful, pacey winger John is injured and left back and captain Mtiliga is banned. FC Nordsjælland lack squad depth, so it is problematic with these absences. This means that FC Nordsjælland will field a very young team against Brøndby. Only reason for optimism is the advantage of the artificial home turf. Brøndby also have some concerns. They have played two bad matches after a strong period. For this match, they have some concerns as defensive midfielder Austin and striker Elmander are banned, while midfielder Phiri is doubtful. Brøndby have the replacements to field a strong team, but they don’t have momentum at the moment.

Two teams low on momentum and with important absences. I believe Brøndby are less weakened by the absences and also have a stronger team – and most importantly, I struggle to see how FC Nordsjælland should hurt Brøndby if they are without John and Bruninho.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 1.78 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-OB

FC Copenhagen have struggled offensively in the last two matches, where they have not scored. FC Copenhagen have suffered due to absence of box-to-box midfielder Delaney and striker Santander. Santander returns here leaving some reason for optimism ahead of the match, although Delaney would have been a more important addition. FC Copenhagen probably have the strongest team in Denmark, but they are not performing at maximum currently. OB are starting to come alive. The defence is looking better, although the goalkeeper Koval is very insecure. Offensively, they are a top team mainly due to the great mind of Falk and the finishing abilities of Festersen.

For OB to get points, you have the impression that you need to keep the opponent from getting too many shots on target, as Koval is not a quality keeper. Against FC Copenhagen you can doubt whether this will be possible. However, OB have so much offensively quality that they can make something happen despite of FC Copenhagen’s strong defence. This is a no bet for me. If anything, I would make a big gamble and go for a lot of goals, as OB are magnets for goal-frenzy matches (5 out of 17 matches over 4.5 goals this season).

Idea: Over 4.5 goals – 6.75 at Unibet

AaB-Viborg

AaB are the best team in the league currently. They are in great form and offensively; they can really make something happen with striker Spalvis as the best player in the league this autumn. For this match, the vital central midfielder Risgård returns from ban, while winger Børsting is a new addition to list of suspended players. AaB don’t have the strongest defence, but overcomes this by taking dominance of the match through their intelligent midfielders. Offensively, they seem almost unstoppable. Viborg could be the team to stop them. They have not conceded in the last two matches, and overall look very solid defensively. This is largely due to the tactic, as Viborg field a team with a lot of defensive minded players. They have some offensive X-factor in striker Deble and winger Akharraz, but they mostly get points through being solid at the back. Player-by-player Viborg are not that strong, but they are really committed and hard working.

AaB lost in Viborg two months ago in a match they dominated at first, but they failed to take advantage resulting in Viborg getting into the game. However, AaB have boosted their confidence since that match and with the home advantage, Viborg will find it difficult to keep AaB down for 90 minutes.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.70 at Sportingbet

Week 17 round-up

6th round in a row with success for the Tip of the Week - again due to a late goal. We appreciate that as it was otherwise a very disappointing round. Find the results below. 

Week 17 Superliga previews

Viborg-AGF

Viborg are a fairly solid team. They don’t concede a lot of chances, but they have been too poor in front of goal. They rely on the speed of Deble, otherwise they are a team of hard working players. Two key players, centre back Rask and winger Kamper, are in the called squad, but have struggled with minor injuries lately. AGF have played some decent matches, but like Viborg they have struggled in front of goal but actually even more at the back. They don’t give away a lot of chances, but those they concede are fairly big chances. They commit many individual mistakes at the back, which have resulted in many goals conceded this season (AGF hold the lowest saving percentage in the league). Interestingly, the two teams rank lowest on PDO, which is an indicator of unlucky teams: inefficient in front of opponents goal and own goal.

The last two matches between the two have ended in draws. It is no coincidence as the two teams are fairly even and lack power in attack. I expect a cautious match. Under 2.5 goals a possibility although price is fairly low. The risky pick is the draw.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet

Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Randers are struggling at the moment. They used to have a lot of power in attack, but they sold strong striker Brock-Madsen to Birmingham, offloaded fellow striker Fall, Ishak is experiencing a dip in form and although Lundberg started the season strongly, he is no natural goal getter. For this match Ishak is banned, while Lundberg should return from a minor injury. However, bottom line is that Randers should lack force in the front line. The midfield is significantly strengthened with the return of Keller and Poulsen from ban, so Randers should have a good chance of dominating the midfield here. Central defender Tverskov is out with an injury. FC Nordsjælland are so volatile. Normally, they are way stronger at home than away, but this tendency has not been seen this season. FC Nordsjælland will be without Petry in the midfield due to a ban. This means that FC Nordsjælland will field a pretty lightweight midfield, which could face problems against the physical Randers midfield.

Randers have won the last three matches without problems as this usually serves as a nice match-up for them. However, this time around I am concerned with respect to their offensive strength. Do they have what is needed to break down FC Nordsjælland? On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland have some great counter-attacking weapons in Bruninho and Joshua John, but in the past they have often lacked commitment in away matches like this. If forced I would pick the away side here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365

UPDATE: Bruninho absent for FC Nordsjælland. He is the offensive key play, so bad news for FC Nordsjælland and the idea pick.

SønderjyskE-Hobro

SønderjyskE are a team of committed players. They put in an impressive work load which often compensates for the quality they might lack. They are strongest in away games as they don’t like to take charge of a match. In four of the last five seasons they have earned more points away than at home! Striker Dalgaard is doubtful, but Bechmann is a fine replacement. SønderjyskE should bring a decent line-up but lack good alternatives on the bench. Hobro just changed head coach. Instead of an unproven temporary head coach, they now have veteran Ove Pedersen, who is own of the most acclaimed head coaches in Denmark. He is really good at making his teams solid at the back, something that Hobro urgently need. Offensively they have some strong players in George and Kirkevold (and Park if he manages to return from injury), but defensively they lack some stability. Midfielder Sane is banned, but he should be replaceable.

Although SønderjyskE won the last head-to-head match 3-0 without problems, I believe that a team that has so many problems in dominating matches should never be 1.70 favourites against a team like Hobro that have the offensive strength to hurt SønderjyskE. And with Ove Pedersen in charge, I would not be surprised to see Hobro in a more competitive version.

Recommendation: 2 (0-1) – 2.30 at Tipico

Brøndby-AaB

Brøndby with a poor display last weekend, but with several of the key players just coming back from internationals it could be a partial explanation. Brøndby have been one of the stronger teams lately, they have really benefitted from the return of veteran Kahlenberg on the midfield and Agger playing consistently in defence. Brøndby are normally a fairly strong home team. AaB have offered some brilliant displays lately. They are exceptional offensively on a good day, but on bad days they are pretty average. They often tend to suffer in away games and things are not easier with the ban for key midfielder Risgård. AaB lack a quality replacement for Risgård and it is of massive importance, since AaB’s success is driven by the passing skills and intelligence of Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen. Without Risgård, they cannot keep the same offensive pace as normally. However, they have the clear league top goalscorer in Spalvis and he is brimming with confidence at the moment.

I suspect Risgårds absence with have massive importance as he is so important due to his footballing skills and also his big influence. The alternatives are nowhere near as good. Brøndby have been playing fairly well lately and should be capable of scoring against an AaB team defence that is not among the best in the league.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.96 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland are not playing well at the moment. The players seem fatigued by the overall tight schedule as they have to focus on Europa League and Superliga at the same time, while suffering from a number of injuries for important players. The last Europa League match saw striker Duncan and winger Sisto leave with injuries and it is unlikely to see any of them in the starting line-up here. Due to the importance of the match and the number of injuries, FC Midtjylland are unlikely to rotate compared to the match against Legia Warszawa on Thursday. This means that we should see a motivated but probably tired home team. FC Midtjylland were exceptional at home last season, but they have been more ordinary this season, probably due to the focus on more than one tournament. Right back Rømer is injured and this could force FC Midtjylland to use a natural left back instead. FC Copenhagen were poor at home against Viborg last weekend. Without two of the offensive profiles, central midfielder Delaney and striker Santander, FC Copenhagen lacked energy and were unable to create much danger. Santander returns from a ban here, and this should spark some hope for the attack. Delaney is still out, which is bad news for the midfield that is set to be very defensive minded. FC Copenhagen have a fine defence, so they should be pretty solid with a defensive minded midfield in front of them.

This is a vital match in the title race. FC Midtjylland are just aiming to survive until 2016, so they can reload the batteries and have the injured players back, while FC Copenhagen should take advantage of this opportunity and go for the win. This should also explain why FC Copenhagen are favourites against a team 16-0-1 at home last season. This match is very likely to be low scoring and cautious. An idea could be few goals in first half. The last match between the two ended 0-0.

Idea: Under 0.75 goals at half-time – 2.05 at Bet365

OB-Esbjerg

Only Hobro have conceded more shots than OB and Esbjerg this season. At the same time both teams are able to create something offensively. OB have the most dangerous front line, where Falk, Festersen and Zohore can cause problems for every team in the league. Especially Falk is outstanding; he should be destined for a club abroad soon. OB do have problems at the back, where especially goalkeeper Koval is looking more like a circus artist. He can be credited some come conceded goals this season. Esbjerg are shockingly poor at the back. They conceded three goals during the opening 20 minutes at home against Hobro last weekend. The situation is so bad that Esbjerg already have made defensive signings for 2016. Offensively, they have some fine individuals in Söder, Mensah and Bille, but the team is often suffering from players acting individually. Esbjerg will still be without the banned defender Stenderup, so no signs of defensive improvement here.

I think OB have more offensive strength than Esbjerg and that should be the difference here. Just considering Falk vs. the Esbjerg back line most concern head coach Dal deeply. Goals should be in the cards here as Esbjerg are unlikely to leave Odense without scoring.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.10 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.75 goals – 2.00 at Bet365

Week 16 round-up

A good round with a terrific ending as Spalvis sealed the 5th consecutive win for the Tip of the Week with a goal in minute 95. Lucky in terms of the timing, but AaB had several big chances to win and waited until the very last opportunity to take the win. Also some success for the recommendations, but sadly we also missed a great idea bet in the dying seconds as Hobro dropped a 4-1 lead after 60 minutes to concede the equaliser in minute 93. Second time this season that a very late goal by Esbjerg against Hobro costs high odds picks (this time odds 6). However, as long as the recommendations are on track, I am satisfied.

Week 16 Superliga previews

OB-FC Midtjylland

OB are great in attack, poor at the back. Are they strong enough offensively to score against FC Midtjylland – it is likely with players as Festersen and Falk. OB have no important absences for this match, but they still suffer from a poor defence and a shaky goalkeeper. FC Midtjylland, defending champions, have suffered from several injuries this season due to a tight schedule. Now they have had a week off, so the overall fitness should be better. Strong centre-back Sviatchenko returns from ban, while star winger Sisto is back in the squad after suffering from injury. Sisto is still doubtful and unlikely to play a full match. FC Midtjylland should be able to field a fairly strong team. They are very strong in the centre of the pitch (central defence, midfield and striker) and should be able to dominate the match.

OB are really up and down. The last home match against Brøndby ended 2-5 and it just shows that their defence can really suffer against a good opponent. FC Midtjylland should have good chances here as they should be fresher than seen in the past round, but I must admin OB have the offensive firepower to hurt them.

Idea: 2 – 2.10 at Danske Spil

FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE

FC Nordsjælland are one of the most instable teams. It is kind of an all-or-nothing team, sometimes they are really good and sometimes they look like the worst team in the league. FC Nordsjælland rely on some technically gifted midfielders and a strong striker in Bruninho. SønderjyskE have a range of bad results lately. I don’t think they have been bad, perhaps just a bit unlucky. They will benefit from the return of Guira and Absalonsen to the midfield, both vital players. Some injury doubts as to right back Pedersen. SønderjyskE are typically stronger away than at home for the reason that they really tend to perform when allowed sitting back and counter-attack. With strikers like Dalgaard and Bechmann on top they have some weapons that don’t need a lot of chances to score.

Odds have already dropped on the away side. For good reason as it is a good type of match for them. However, 3.25 is not spectacular for an away win. Instead, I would go for an over match here. The teams have a tendency of playing some spectacular head-to-heads and together they have crossed the line in 19 out of 30 matches this season.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Bet365

Esbjerg-Hobro

Esbjerg have been really poor this season. Only Hobro have conceded as many goals, which shows that the back line is abysmal. Central defender Stenderup and right back Laursen miss the match, which is not making matters better. Offensively, there is still plenty to work with, but players like Nicki Bille, Mensah, Paulsen and Söder are all capable of finding the net. Hobro are undoubtedly the worst team in the league and they should go down. However, if they are to avoid that they need something in a match like this. They have been good against Esbjerg in recent head-to-heads, since Esbjerg hate the physical strength of Hobro’s hard working players. Hobro have had a lot of injuries, but should have some of the best offensive cards available in Kirkevold, George and maybe also Park. If that is the case, Esbjerg will struggle to get a clean sheet.

Although it is frightening that Hobro got smashed 6-0 in Aalborg, I don’t see Esbjerg doing the same thing to Hobro here. Hobro have a fine chance of getting something here and they might even snatch a surprise win if things are really working as I have problems seeing Esbjerg’s backline containing the Hobro strikers.

Recommendation: Both teams to score – 1.85 at Nordicbet

Idea: 2 – 6.00 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-Viborg

FC Copenhagen have been looking really good lately earning four wins in the last five matches. Offensively they have looked very strong and defensively, they are just a solid team, why they are also the team conceding fewest goals in the league. They play an organised 4-4-2, which is really difficult to break down. However, they are without two of the more important players here. Central midfielder Delaney is injured, while striker Santander is banned. Central defender Antonsson is injured, so FC Copenhagen might be forced to change quite a few things here, which could hurt the consistency which they have benefitted from lately. Viborg have done fairly well this season considering that they are a promoted club. Based on SoTR they are an average team with a poor scoring percentage. Viborg suffered in the last match as striker Deble was banned. Without him they lack an offensive player capable of making the extraordinary and thereby creating space for the others. He returns from ban here. Apart from this Viborg should be able to field a defensively solid team that almost managed to get a draw in the similar match a month ago (1-0).

FC Copenhagen without several players facing a compact Viborg. This could be difficult for the home team, although they will probably win. But even if they win, they are not a team that tend to go all-in for big wins.

Idea: 2 (AH +1.25) – 1.925 at Bet365

AGF-Brøndby

AGF have only won one of the last ten matches. Not impressive – they play decent football at the times, but it lacks end product. There are many inconsistent players and the defence is not compelling. Especially goalkeeper Rasmussen, who has the lowest saving rate in the league, is a weak point. This is one of the big games in Aarhus, so a strong support from the stands is expected. Brøndby have experienced quite a makeover after starting the season miserably. The return of Kahlenberg combined with the signing of Austin has really improved the central midfield. At the same time, Brøndby are starting to look stronger at the back as talismanic Agger has been playing regularly for a longer period.

AGF have looked decent at own pitch during this season, but they will find it difficult to break down Brøndby’s backline here. Brøndby should be able to hurt AGF’s weak defence and I actually think the price is fine in a situation where we get half the money back in case of a draw.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.925 at Bet365

AaB-Randers

AaB have been spectacular in the last home games. The last three matches have ended in wins with a score of 15-1! When AaB get the play going at home, they are an unstoppable force. Consistency is also a big part. The integral midfielders Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen have been playing a lot of matches together, while the return of Spalvis (current league top goalscorer) has given them a true goal getter to assist. Randers are a known as a well organised and defensively solid team. This season they have struggled a bit offensively as key striker Ishak has not been at his best. Randers will be without both central midfielders (Poulsen and captain Keller) here due to bans, which is really bad news as Randers never rotate in these positions, so no quality replacements emerge. Therefore Randers will have to try something different, perhaps moving a central defender to the midfield. In any case, it will be difficult for them to win the midfield battle and contain the strong AaB midfield. However, Randers will find some comfort in the 2-0 win in Aalborg in August.

The midfield absences for Randers are really vital, and against a AaB team brimming with confidence, it will be really difficult to take something from here. I consider the home win a really fine bet and actually expected to see a price around 1.80 given the Randers absences.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365