Week 17 round-up (14/15)

9th weekend in a row with positive profits! A great way to round off a great autumn betting season, where we finish with a return of +10%. For the last round we have included our long-term bet on FC Midtjylland to lead at winter break (at odds 2.25), but we would have recorded a profit anyway. Our recommendations were the strong area this round with the draw in Randers and the low-scoring match in Brøndby. Unfortunately, our Tip of the Week was returned, since OB failed to capitalize despite of being dominant for most of the match against AaB. We also needed a bit more luck with our #Twitbets on Esbjerg win (0-0), where our bet was stopped by FC Nordsjælland keeper David Jensen. We are still utterly disgusted by our poor record on our Tip of the Week this autumn, and we have no logical explanation. No other explanation than pure randomness in an extreme version. We note that almost all our Tip of the Week bets dropped in odds in the period after we posted them until match start. We are very satisfied with the rest of our categories that have all been very profitable. We hope you enjoyed it too! We are grateful for all the nice remarks on Twitter, they make all the effort to produce the previews worthwhile.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25

Randers-SønderjyskE

Friday 5/12 18.30

Randers (2nd) have won some tight matches recently. While Randers struggle to create something offensively, they are also excellent at limiting the opponent to only a few chances per match (11 goals conceded in 16 games is remarkable!). Randers face some defensive problems for this match. Central defender Mads Agesen is suspended, and although Jeppe Tverskov is a fine replacement, it is never optimal to change something that has worked so well. Offensively, Randers will be without their top goalscorer Mikael Ishak who is suspended, but with Djiby Fall and Nicolai Brock-Madsen as alternatives it should not be an important absence. SønderjyskE (9th) are the draw champions. 10 draws in 16 matches is a wild but also telling statistic. SønderjyskE are difficult to beat (only FC Midtjylland have lost fewer matches)! SønderjyskE have a great team at the moment. There is a nice combination of physique, experience and offensive firepower. We would actually rate SønderjyskE’s offense with Pourie and Bechamnn as stronger than the Randers counter part. The midfield is probably not as strong though, and surely not tomorrow, where Daniel Jensen is absent with an injury and Johan Absalonsen is suspended.

Randers are a looking strong and solid at the moment, but they do have to work a lot for their wins (that are usually slim (7 out of 9 wins only with one goal margin)). SønderjyskE are difficult to beat and hold a strong defence. This match has a high probability of ending in a draw, and at odds 3.70 it is certainly worth a try.

Recommendation: X – 3.70 at Betfair

Leaguespy preview for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41637&a=33624

OB-AaB

Saturday 6/12 17.00

OB (10th) are experiencing a nice period under new head coach Ove Pedersen: two wins in a row and the last three home games have been won. OB have benefitted from a better morale and a better squad condition. They have no important players injured, and are therefore able to field the same team every weekend. Based on the starting eleven, they should have enough quality to stay in the league surely. They look pretty solid at the back (an Ove Pedersen trademark) and with Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk improving from match to match; the offensive capabilities are also starting to show. AaB (6th) must feel sorry for losing at home to FC Copenhagen (0-1) in a very even match. The loss also had some additional negative consequences since two of the veterans, central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen and central midfielder Kasper Risgård are both suspended for this match. Both are quality players and AaB are without alternatives at the same level. AaB also have a do-or-die match on Thursday in the Europa League, which might influence the squad selection here. In any case, it should not be an AaB team at its maximum that is visiting Odense this weekend.

OB have momentum and less squad concerns. We regard them as small favourites in this match-up, and acknowledge that AaB are a solid team that is not easily beaten. Nevertheless, there should be clear value in a home win here.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 2.00 at Bet365

UPDATE: Central defender Rasmus Thelander is also out for AaB. Not a good situation for AaB to be without their two solid centre backs. The young (and rather unproven) duo Jakob Blåbjerg and Kasper Pedersen will probably get the chance. 

Leaguespy preview:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41638&a=33624 

FC Vestsjælland-Hobro

Sunday 7/12 14.00

FC Vestsjælland (11th) put up a good fight in the mission impossible match in Herning last weekend (lost 2-1), and maybe the players are starting to understand that relegation is a serious concern unless the performances improve. FC Vestsjælland were without two key players, striker Rasmus Festersen and central defender Jean-Claude Bozga who both return here. Team captain and central midfielder Henrik Madsen is doubtful. FC Vestsjælland should be able to field a team with a lot of experience, but limited individual qualities (Festersen is the go-to-guy). Hobro (7th) lost a fairly even match against Randers last weekend (0-1), and are starting to feel the pressure from below. This match is vital if they are to remain out of immediate relegation contention. Hobro do have a fine team, admittedly with less experience than FC Vestsjælland, but instead more offensive quality from the likes of Antipas, Hvilsom and Berggreen. Hobro have no reported injury concerns.

The last time they met Hobro won comfortably 3-1 (in Hobro). But FC Vestsjælland are typically much stronger at home, and we should expect them to be dominant here (they really have to win this!). At the same time free entrance is offered for the home fans, so FC Vestsjælland will be eager to push forward. This could give Hobro excellent chances for exploiting their counter attacking qualities. We expect Hobro to come away with something here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.92 at Bet365

Brøndby-Silkeborg

Sunday 7/12 17.00

Brøndby (4th) are playing like shit at the moment (to put it gently). They were lucky to only lose by 2-0 in FC Nordsjælland (should have been 6-1’ish – worth mentioning that Brøndby were playing with 10 men for most of the game). In midweek they fielded most of the best team in a cup home match against a club ranked two divisions under. Brøndby had to play 120 minutes before taking a slim win (2-1). Part of the reason for the poor performance is the absence of talismanic defender Daniel Agger. When Agger is playing, Brøndby are solid at the back and playing with more confidence in general. When Agger is not playing the team looks fragile and bleak. Agger is doubtful for this match, while his normal companion in the central Dario Dumic is suspended here. If Agger cannot play Brøndby will field a rather unimpressive central defence. Unimpressive is also the state of the pitch in Brøndby, which is completely ruined and not suited for passing football. Silkeborg (12th) are positioned like shit, but are actually not playing that bad. Sure, they have the occasional bad day, but in general they play pretty even matches. The main problem is the offensive inefficiency, which is insane. Silkeborg have scored 11% of their shots on target! League average is 25%, and the second lowest registered inefficiency is SønderjyskE/FC Nordsjælland at 21%. It is obvious that the offensive players have no confidence in terms of finishing. Silkeborg actually create a lot, but they never experience being ahead, since they never score. For this match, Silkeborg will be without one of their best performing players, left wingback Nicolaj Ritter who is suspended.

Two teams playing without confidence at a terrible pitch. An under bet looks interesting here. Both clubs have only scored twice in the last five league matches. Stay tuned for info on the condition of Agger. If he is out a bet in the direction of Silkeborg could be worth a shot.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.87 at Betsafe

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 7/12 19.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) need to win here. Otherwise they can forget about claiming the title. We should therefore see an FC Copenhagen team that is willing to gamble if the score is all square in second half. FC Copenhagen are playing pretty average football at the moment. They are relatively solid at the back, but they struggle with the offensive production. They will find some optimism in the great goal scored by Andreas Cornelius last weekend. Cornelius has had a poor season until now, and this has been of great importance since he is usually playing the lone striker position. FC Copenhagen will benefit from the return of midfielders Christian Poulsen and Thomas Delaney from suspension. In that light it should not be a huge problem that fellow midfielder Daniel Amartey is suspended for this match. FC Midtjylland (1st) performed poorly last Monday, but won 2-1 anyway (against FC Vestsjælland). They are a top team; they win even on the bad days. FC Midtjylland’s brilliant offense had a difficult day against the very defensive FC Vestsjælland. They will have more space here, and this could be dangerous for FC Copenhagen, since the likes of Pione Sisto and Sylvester Igboun are not easily stopped. FC Midtjylland face a few challenges though. Right back and captain Kristian Bak Bach and central midfielder Tim Sparv are both suspended. Although FC Midtjylland have alternatives of similar quality, they do not have the same experience and calmness that will important in an intense game like this. FC Midtjylland have won the last two away matches in Parken (2-1 and 5-1).

We expect a great match here. FC Copenhagen have to win, and FC Midtjylland thrive in matches where they get space. We believe that FC Midtjylland have some individual qualities that FC Copenhagen cannot match currently, and this could easily be decisive. We see value in goals and the away side here.

Ideas: Over 2.5 goals – 2.15 at Tipico

2 (DNB) – 2.33 at Unibet

UPDATE: FC Midtjylland will be without striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen. An important player, but FC Midtjylland have dealt well in his absence (Ureña is likely to start). 

Esbjerg-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 8/12 19.00

Esbjerg (8th) are not fully clear of the relegation line, but they have too much quality for that to become an issue. They have some great players with the striker Martin Pusic (8 goals this season) as the star player. Esbjerg have however underperformed a bit in this season, and the main reason is a midfield that has not been as convincing as in the past seasons. Esbjerg are a strong home team and usually dominates every time they play at home. Esbjerg will be challenged by having to play a cup match Thursday against FC Midtjylland, and we expect Esbjerg to field the strongest team (unlike FC Midtjylland) for that match. Midfielder Mohammed Fellah is suspended, but Esbjerg have a fine alternative in Jeppe Andersen. FC Nordsjælland (5th) got back to winning ways after a streak of six games without a win. FC Nordsjælland outplayed Brøndby completely (2-0) and the strong wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John looked sharp. FC Nordsjælland have a great team when they have a full squad to choose from like now.

Esbjerg are a strong home and FC Nordsjælland are traditionally a poor away team. This should justify the favourite role for Esbjerg in an otherwise pretty even match-up. Both teams have their force in the offensive aspect, and we expect an entertaining match to end the year.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

Leaguespy preview for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41642&a=33624

UPDATE: Söder is possibly out for Esbjerg. The Swede has been quite anonymous in most matches, why young Vestergaard might actually be an upgrade.

Week 16 round-up (14/15)

Damn you, FC Midtjylland. We felt it was such a good bet (odds also dropped a lot afterwards), but FC Midtjylland were own goal short for our Tip of the Week pick. Our Tip of the Week section continues to be in a bad state. Amazing really since all our other categories are in fine plus. Well, this was still a good weekend. Due to some strong recommendations we finished the week in small plus. It was the 8th weekend in a row with positive profits!! So we are still good value despite of our Tip of the Week slip ups. One round remains in 2014, so stay tuned!