Brøndby-AGF

Sunday 10/11 19.00

Brøndby (8th) have been playing with huge confidence lately. The outcome is seven games in a row without a loss.  What is really noteworthy is how their defence has come to live with three clean sheets in a row. New signing, Khalid Bouhlarouz has done well and so is the case for keeper Lukas Hradecky. This statistic is combined with a bit of luck. though. In the last match against FC Vestsjælland, Vestsjælland failed to score on 18 attempts (to be fair, not all where real chances). In the match before, only an insane missed header by Bodul kept OB from scoring. So even though we are impressed by this clean sheet statistic, we have a hard time seeing it continue. Also we are a bit sceptical as to Brøndby’s no-losing streak. Brøndby are hurt by several injuries in their offence. Midfielders Kahlenberg and Ørnskov and striker Makienok (team top scorer with 6 goals) are all confirmed absentees. Add to this that second striker Antipas is very doubtful and likely to miss practice the entire week. Brøndby’s alternative in attack, Kenneth Zohore, is a talented guy, but is suffering from lack of confidence. His ball control and finishing has been very poor leading to frustration among Brøndby supporters. Kahlenberg and Makienok have also been absent in the last three matches, where Brøndby in total only have scored two goals (one even on a penalty). AGF (3rd) have turned a series of bad performances into a two game winning streak and while the first win in Esbjerg (2-0) involved cynicism, the second against Viborg (2-1) where fully fair and honestly not big enough. A change of formation seems to have made an impact with AGF going from a 4-5-1 to 4-4-2 with a combination of energetic Jesper Lange and the finisher Søren Larsen on top. The increase in confidence is also materializing on the field where the passing game is really improving. AGF will benefit from the return of defensive midfielder Kasper Povlsen from suspension. He is likely to replace Nørregaard, leaving AGF with their strongest eleven on the pitch.

AGF have two wins in a row and thereof loads of confidence. Brøndby have showed solid defending and delivered some good results even though they are struggling offensively. For this match the injury crisis is getting even worse with Ørnskov added to the list of injured. We fail to see why a offensively weakened Brøndby team are clear favourites, why we recommend the away win. AGF should be able to win 3 out of 10. Furthermore we believe under 2.5 goals is a good choice for a second bet. If you are less of daredevil you could go for the Draw No Bet to odds 2.95 also at Unibet.

Recommendation: 2 – 4.05 Unibet

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.96 Betfair