AaB-AGF

Sunday 29/9 14.00

Both clubs have made an attempt to promote the match as “the battle of Jutland”. Yes, it is a game between the region’s two biggest cities, but if you measure it on recent performances on the football pitch you could easily argue that they are overselling it. Nevertheless, you should expect an intense match between two teams that are having a form dip. AaB (3rd) lost in Randers last weekend in a match, where they were weak at keeping possession. Way to often the ball was played to the front line where either Anders Jacobsen or Søren Frederiksen lost it. New striker Rasmus Jønsson might be a better solution but is he fit for it? AaB have a strong midfield and it was nice to see that their latest midfield talent Nicolaj Thomsen score his first career senior goal in their midweek win in the cup (2-1 vs. Køge). AGF (6th) have lost two home games in a row (vs. Viborg and Brøndby). Especially against Brøndby they failed to dominate the match. It was an uninspiring performance, where none of the key players hit their normal standard. Some of the players have not been playing well for some time, but these players seem to continue to get starting appearances while coach Sørensen makes swaps in surprising positions, like benching their only in-form striker, Søren Larsen. AGF hardly created any chances in the recent two league matches and it would be natural to be concerned. Defensively things are not to good either. Right back Alexander Juel Andersen is injured and the normal back alternative Eckersley is injured. We expect Dominic Oduro to take this position and we expect Thomsen to give him a good challenge.

This will be a tough battle for dominance in the midfield, the area where both teams are the strongest. We expect AaB to be in the best position to do so, but the odds just above 2.00 for a home win are not really that interesting value-wise.  Instead we would rather make a bet on the number of goals. None of the teams have been very good at creating chances recently and if this tendency continues we might see a low score line (1-0, 1-1 or so). We keep this as an idea.

Idea: Under 2,5 goals – 2,20 Betfair

UPDATE: AaB without experienced midfielder Würtz. He will probably be replaced by either Augustinussen or Wichmann, which is a minor weakening of the home side. AaB should still stand good chances of winning.