Week 29-30 round-up

Two strong rounds. Round 29 finished with a decent plus, while round 30 ended in a big plus with only one bet missing out. We are having a good round currently. Spots are generally good and results are also great. It is mainly driven by the idea picks which have been off the chart this season. Ideally, we would have this plus on the recommendations, but we are not working with a big sample so things like that can happen. In the long-run we should expect to be stronger on the recommendations and weaker on the idea picks.

As you can see below we had some excellent spots. 5 out 6 recommendations had significant odds drops, while the remaining, our Tip of the Week in round 30, had rising odds. There were some information after the preview which shifted the market a bit, although I must admit I had a different interpretation of the match than the market - and it happened to be right.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Round 29:

Hobro-FC Midtjylland 2

Our pick: 1.50

Closing odds: 1.36

FC Nordsjælland-OB 2

Our pick: 2.90

Closing odds: 2.50

Randers-Brøndby 1 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.40

Closing odds: 2.06

AaB-FC Copenhagen 1 (+0)

Our pick: 2.35

Closing odds: 2.18

Round 30:

FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE 2 (+0.5)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 1.925

AGF-AaB 1 (+0.25)

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 2.06

Week 30 Superliga previews

FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE

Saturday 14/5 18.00

FC Midtjylland are not all to impressing at the moment. They have the squad for 2nd place, but the performances have been of very unstable. Are the defending champions fully committed at the moment? It does not seem like it. SønderjyskE are heading towards a spectacular 2nd place. They have had luck on their side in many matches this season, but they are also incredibly committed and hard working. Vital winger Absalonsen returns from ban, so SønderjyskE should be able to field the strongest side.

FC Midtjylland are clearly stronger, but their current form is not impressive and SønderjyskE are difficult to beat. I prefer the away side here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.00 at Bet365

OB-Hobro

Sunday 15/5 14.00

OB need an excellent run to clinch European qualification. It is unlikely, but this is definitely a must-win match. OB are very strong offensively with Falk, Festersen and Jacobsen, but they have also done way better in 2016 defensively. Hobro have been playing fairly well in many matches of late. However, they lack some luck and confidence in the decisive situation. They concede goals too easily and they don’t believe in themselves when they are in front of goal. With some confidence they should be able to gain points, but will they ever get it?

I think the odds for the home win are all too low, but I have really had a bad hand betting on Hobro this season. Nevertheless, it would be my preference here.

Idea: 2 (AH +1.5) – 1.825 at Bet365

Viborg-Randers

Monday 16/5 13.00

Match without importance, but who is the strongest? Viborg seem somewhat weaker when key offensive cards, Akharraz and Deble, are injured. Deble could return here, which would be a major boost. If not, it is clear that Viborg have serious difficulties offensively. Randers are playing fairly well in 2016, but they have been unlucky in some matches, most recently against Brøndby. I think they are producing a lot and at the same time, they are really difficult to create chances against.

If Deble are out here, Randers look like a solid bet as they should be significantly stronger. If Deble is in, we have a way more even match. I pick Randers and hope Deble will miss another match. If Deble is playing you should pick Viborg at the current odds (3.10)

Idea: 2 – 2.50 at Tipico

FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 16/5 16.00

If SønderjyskE slip up, FC Copenhagen can take the title with a win here. Therefore, the home side will definitely be the most motivated here. They did well in Aalborg despite several defensive absences. FC Copenhagen are undoubtedly the best side this year, and they can dominate an opponent like FC Nordsjælland with superior physique. FC Nordsjælland seem to be testing the squad ahead of next season, why they are using several youngsters. They have nothing to play for. Defender Gregor is out due to a ban.

FC Copenhagen should win here and even though they are normally pretty conservative in terms of going for big wins, I believe they should take this by more than one due to massive difference in motivation and quality.

Idea: 1 (0-1) – 2.10 at Tipico

Esbjerg-Brøndby

Monday 16/5 18.00

Esbjerg are not playing well. They are perhaps even poorer than Hobro currently. They cannot create anything offensively, and the defensive part is not impressive apart from goalkeeper Højbjerg. The squad has many injuries and a lot of players heading for an exit and at the same time Esbjerg have nothing to play for. Central midfielder and influential veteran Jørgensen is banned. Important striker Schwartz returns from ban. Brøndby are not impressive either, but they at least have something to play for. Brøndby have really been playing poorly in many away matches, but maybe the great chance of European qualification can motivate the players to do better. The away win in Randers in midweek showed quality despite Brøndby being quite efficiency. Important defender Larsson could be out with injury.

I pick the away side due to difference in motivation and Esbjerg’s poor run.

Idea: 2 – 2.25 at Tipico

AGF-AaB

Tuesday 17/5 19.00

AGF finally got the long awaiting win in 2016 when beating Esbjerg 5-1. AGF have deserved more wins, but lacked efficiency. The result has been many draws. AGF don’t have much to play for as such, but head coach Riddersholm is very focused on taking the remainder of the season seriously to build-up the right mentality for the next season. AGF should be able to select the strongest eleven. AaB suffered a disappointing loss to FC Copenhagen last round. They were without central midfielder Risgaard who is crucial, but he should return from sickness here. AaB have a lot to play for, but their performances are quite volatile. AaB should be able to field the strongest side too.

AaB are the better side and have more motivation, but I think AGF can do well with the strongest side on own turf. I actually think the home side is worth a shot as a pretty significant outsider.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.90 at Bet365

Week 29 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-Viborg

Wednesday 11/5 18.00

SønderjyskE have an excellent chance of a magnificent 2nd place. I currently hold them at around 50-55% chance of obtaining that. This would be a spectacular result for the small club, so they will be super motivated. Unfortunately, vital winger Absalonsen is banned here, and SønderjyskE will hope that Madsen will return from a minor injury to replace him. Otherwise, SønderjyskE will be without their most dangerous midfielders. Absalonsen is the team top goalscorer with 11 goals. Defensively, they are really solid. Viborg are also a solid team defensively. Unfortunately, they seem to struggle when the main offensive players are out. This has been the case lately with Deble and Akharraz injured. There is a chance that Deble will return here, which would be a major boost. Captain and central defender Rask is banned, which is a clear minus.

Two teams with similar style: strong defensive outset and dangerous on counter-attacks. The match is way more important for SønderjyskE, but don’t expect Viborg to let them win without a fight. I think the home win is just around value, but a lot depends on the names Madsen and Deble. Madsen would add a few percentages for SønderjyskE and Deble a few for Viborg.

Idea: 1 – 2.00 at Bet25

AGF-Esbjerg

Wednesday 11/5 20.00

AGF have played 10 matches in the Superliga in 2016 without winning. Have they been really poor then? Actually no. They have a quite decent SoTR and in my opinion they are a playing like a mid-table team. Unfortunately, they have the poorest goalkeeper in the league. Steffan Rasmussen continues to cost goals (and points). With a more solid keeper I am sure AGF would have had more success in 2016. AGF look to benefit massively with the return of three key players from bans, striker Duncan and midfielders Bjarnason and Olsen. Strong defensive midfielder Jönsson is newest addition to the suspended list, but AGF should be able to field a fairly strong starting eleven. Esbjerg have earned many points at the start of 2016, despite not playing well. Now they have started to lose and they continue to play poorly. They have had a lot of injuries and bans, so this a big reason for the limited success. For this match three players return from bans: defender Stenderup and midfielders Paulsen and Fellah. Not vital players, but it will help them surely. However, Esbjerg will be without the biggest offensive asset in striker Schwartz who is banned.

Esbjerg are playing like shit and AGF are without a league win this year. However, I think motivation is bigger for AGF. They are playing in front of own fans and the talk about the lack of win is really on their mind. They will go for a win surely. Esbjerg will probably arrive in order to defend. The many line-up changes of late and poor performances have left them with no consistency and poor confidence.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.825 at Bet365

Hobro-FC Midtjylland

Wednesday 11/5 18.00

Hobro need a win here, otherwise they are relegated. Who cares? They will not win the last five matches in any case. They have yet to win in 2016, although they have been getting closer. They played decently in Randers, but they really lack confidence in front of goal. Hobro will try to enjoy the remaining period in the Superliga and try to get the confidence-boosting win. They will have to do without captain and central defender Justesen who is banned. FC Midtjylland were disappointing against AGF in the last round. With the difference in quality and motivation they really should have won. FC Midtjylland do have a very strong squad, but they need to show it consistently. They really need wins, so they should be fully motivated. I don’t expect any new absences for FC Midtjylland who should be able to field a strong starting eleven.

FC Midtjylland need a win here, and Hobro are without a win all year and without their captain. The price is low, but I actually think it might be worth a shot.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.50 at Tipico

FC Nordsjælland-OB

Thursday 12/5 18.00

FC Nordsjælland have not been performing well lately. They have had a lot of injuries, and it also seems like head coach Hjulmand is using the lack of things to play for to test some youngsters. In any case, he is making a lot of changes from match-to-match. He will also be forced to change here as strong winger John left with an injury in the last match. On the plus side is the return of offensive talent Emre Mor. He is very important for the attack, since he is able to draw the attention from many opponents with his great dribbling skills. FC Nordsjælland will probably still be without some of the key players due to injuries (Mikkelsen and Lobotka). OB struggled offensively in the last match against FC Copenhagen, but they were without their offensive star Falk who was banned. He returns here, and then OB will again be a very dangerous team. Their defence has not impressed me, but I actually think they have done fairly well lately. OB have an outside chance of top 4 and European qualification, but they need a win here.

FC Nordsjælland could be without several important players here, while I expect OB to be in the strongest formation. OB also have a bit more to play for, and if Hjulmand again wants to test his squad depth, I think OB deserve to be favourites here. But important to have in mind that FC Nordsjælland are always much stronger on own artificial grass.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.90 at Bet25

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.10 at Tipico

Randers-Brøndby

Thursday 12/5 18.00

Randers are according to my stats the second best side of 2016. They are doing really well, and it is amazing despite of all the off-the-pitch disturbances there have been in the recent months. They have a good and solid squad and they are really difficult to create chances against. They have given away the lowest number of shots in the penalty box in 2016 (3.9 per match). Offensively, the strikers are starting to find the net and if they can continue they will be deadly as the offensive efficiency has been an issue in 2016. Offensive player Lundberg missed the last match and could be out here too, but otherwise no reported absences. Brøndby have been pretty unstable in 2016. I think they have had a lot of focus on the defensive part, which they seem to have strengthened. Offensively, it has not been impressive although Polish striker Wilczek is having a good run. Brøndby have often looked pale in difficult away matches, and it will be vital for them that key players like midfielder Kahlenberg and defender Albrechtsen return. I don’t think they will though.

Randers look very strong at the moment. They need a win here as Brøndby are their nearest rival in the race for European qualification. They have been the best team in almost every match they have played in 2016. Brøndby on the other hand have been very instable and they suffer from many injuries. I think this is a match that Randers will win 45% of the time, so good value here.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.40 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Brøndby midfielders Phiri and Nørgaard are both banned. This leaves Brøndby very slim centrally and only improves the value.

AaB-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 12/5 20.00

I won’t be making this a final as I believe the race for the title is over. However, it is a vital match for AaB in order to obtain a 2nd place. They are always very motivated at home against FC Copenhagen, so we will no doubt see some intensity here. AaB have improved lately, and they are showing some of the things that made them unbeatable in autumn. There is no doubt that AaB enjoy playing on fine summer pitches. Central defender Petersen should return here, why AaB will be able to select the strongest possible eleven. FC Copenhagen have pretty much won it all. Of course they still need to pick up a few points to seal the deal, but it should be a formality. FC Copenhagen have been very strong this year. They are undoubtedly the strongest side in the league, but they could have some issues here. Creative midfielder Kusk was out with injury in the last match and offensive star, top goalscorer Jørgensen left the last match early, so he is doubtful here. In-form winger Verbic is banned here, so FC Copenhagen look particularly challenged on the wings. The defensive part looks rock solid though.

AaB need a win more than FC Copenhagen here. They are at home, in good form, without injuries and will have strong support. FC Copenhagen have looked a bit fatigued lately and are likely to be without two offensive profiles. I think AaB stand a pretty good chance here and I am sure the value is on the home side here. It is just a question of risk in terms of betting. I pick the DNB.

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 2.35 at PartyBets

Week 28 round-up

Another decent round. The Tip of the Week was successful and the same was the case for one of the recommendations. The ideas were also continuously good, and we had the 5th consecutive round with a surplus. Let's see if we can continue. There is a midweek round in this round. Time is sparse so previews will be of a rather short length. Two recommendations with falling odds this time, but sadly also one with odds rising.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Viborg-AaB (-0.25) 2 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 1.95

OB-FC Copenhagen Under 2.5

Our pick: 1.95

Closing odds: 1.83

FC Midtjylland-AGF (-1.5) 1

Our pick: 2.45

Closing odds: 2.48

Week 28 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-Esbjerg

Friday 5/5 18.00

SønderjyskE like to call themselves the Leicester of Denmark due to their unexpected success and their mentality of only talking about the next match. They have done extremely well, mainly due to a strategy to which the players are very committed. Furthermore, they have also had some luck to take wins in the tight games. In any case, SønderjyskE deserve a lot of respect for what they have done. They are average when it comes to chance creation, but have had success due to a great efficiency in front of goal. I don’t think they can continue being so efficient, so we might see them starting to get some issues. Nicolaj Madsen who has been an offensive profile returns from a ban here. Esbjerg are stuck in the bottom. They started 2016 with some good results, but it was fuelled by an unsustainable saving percentage. The chance creation was very poor, but it has actually improve in recent matches. However, Esbjerg’s luck has come to an end, why they have had problems earning points lately. It will be even more difficult here as a number of bans have been added to Esbjerg’s lost list of injury-absent players. Midfielders Paulsen (regular) and Fellah (back-up) and central defender Stenderup (regular) are banned, while midfielder and captain Lekven(vital) is a new injury addition. On the positive side is the likely return of important midfielders Andersen and Jørgensen from injuries. The defensive absence of Stenderup is particularly concerning as Esbjerg will be forced to field a very young central defence with Lund and Brinch.

Esbjerg have had serious problems with SønderjyskE lately. They don’t like their physical style. Furthermore, the number of injuries gives serious problems as Esbjerg are forced to field a number of young players. The odds for the home side have already dropped a lot and question is where the bottom is. It all depends on the Esbjerg line-up tomorrow. If Andersen and Jørgensen are back, Esbjerg should be a good bet. If not, Esbjerg are in a really shitty situation and there should still be some value on the home side. No bet for me at current odds, but the safest choice currently would be SønderjyskE as I expect odds to drop even more on the home side if Jørgensen and Andersen are out – and not so much the other way if not.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.75) – 2.00 at Bet365

Randers-Hobro

Saturday 6/5 15.00

Randers have been looking strong throughout 2016. I think they should have earned more points, as they have been the strongest team in almost every game they have played this year. Randers head coach Todd has just announced that he will quit at the end of the season, which could make players less focused as they are not playing for the head coach for next season. Otherwise I think Randers have a complete side with physically strong players in all lines. Central midfielder Allansson misses the match with an injury. Hobro are going down, but the players might find some motivation in playing against the local big brother. Several players in the Hobro squad have played in Randers and would love to take a win here. Hobro will welcome back several regulars who missed the last match with bans. Central midfielder Damborg and backs Tjørnelund and Bøge are important additions for this match. Unfortunately, offensive ace Antipas is out for the season. Hobro have been the poorest team in 2016, but with they have played some close matches lately. If they continue to play like this, they will surely get a victory soon.

Randers deserve to be big favourites as they are far better. But I actually think the current odds are too low. The departure of Todd and the limited motivation mean that Randers might show up in an unfocused version. If that is the case, Hobro in close to strongest formation might get something here. This is only an idea pick, as I don’t trust Hobro this season.

Idea: 2 (AH +1.5) – 1.85 at Bet365

Viborg-AaB

Sunday 7/5 13.00

Viborg have obtained some good results of late, despite dropping in performance. They started 2016 strongly, but after picking up injuries for offensive aces Akharraz and Deble, I think they have been limited severely offensively. The lack of offensive power has put the defence under pressure. Deble was back in the last match but left with an injury, so I expect him to be out here too. Defensively, Viborg have committed and hard working players in a strong organisation, but I find it difficult to see how they will challenge the opponent without Akharraz and Deble. AaB finally showed some of the stuff that made them so strong in autumn. They completely outplayed Brøndby last weekend (won 3-0) and with everyone fit and nice pitches, they could pick up their great offensive play.

AaB probably have the strongest offense in the league on the good days. Based on last weekend, the good days could be back on. On the other hand, Viborg are struggling with injuries for key offensive players. I expect AaB to be the strongest team here. Despite the odds have dropped, I think it is enough to merit some value.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 2.00 at Bet365

OB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 7/5 16.00

OB have a magnificent offense, but it is very dependent on all three key players (Falk, Festersen and Jacobsen) being available. Unfortunately for the home side, Falk is banned here. He picked up a stupid yellow card in the last match – maybe on purpose as he is leaving for FC Copenhagen at the end of the season. I think OB have been rather lucky throughout 2015 as they have earned many points from despite not playing well, but they have really been efficient with Jacobsen as the big goal-getter. Defensively, OB will be without right back Lund, but he is a marginal player and should be replaceable. FC Copenhagen won the cup this Thursday after an unspectacular performance (2-1 against AGF), but it was enough. FC Copenhagen rotated a bit, so I expect them to be back in strongest formation here, although some key players like Jørgensen and Delaney could be fatigued. Important winger Kusk left the cup final with an injury and he is likely to be out here.

FC Copenhagen are clearly the strongest team, but question is how focused they are. OB have actually won the last two home games against FC Copenhagen after physical matches, but OB are without Falk here which should significantly limit their chances. However, odds are really low for the away side here, so I won’t go there. Instead, I think a low scoring match could be in store. The last four head-to-head matches in Odense have ended with only one goal. OB are without their biggest offensive profile and FC Copenhagen are probably a bit fatigued so they won’t go for the big win.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-AGF

Sunday 7/5 18.00

FC Midtjylland saw their hopes of the title vanish with a 5-3 loss against FC Copenhagen last weekend. The result also saw the end to a positive spiral for the home side who were starting to add more points after getting some consistency. FC Midtjylland are still among the strongest in the league, and in their own mind, anything else than the 2nd place will be hugely disappointing. Therefore they really need to pick up some points now and this is a must-win match. No new absences for FC Midtjylland who should be able to field a fairly strong starting eleven. AGF lost the cup final on Thursday. It was the big match of the season, so it was a huge disappointment. Now they return to the league where they have nothing to play for. They do need a win soon as the first 9 league matches under head coach Riddersholm, the former FC Midtjylland coach, have resulted in no wins. AGF will be challenged by absences though. Vital striker Morten Duncan, and important midfielders Olsen and Bjarnason are all banned here. AGF will find it difficult to replace these players who are among the head coach’s favourites. AGF have actually played fine for most of 2016, but they concede goals to easily - especially on set pieces. Therefore, it will be a big problem to face FC Midtjylland who are known for their strength a set pieces.

FC Midtjylland with high motivation and no new absences against AGF who have low motivation and a long list of injuries. It does look like a home win. Despite the current low odds, I think it is value and I would personally go for a win by more than one goal. Unibet offer a nice price and I think it deserves a recommendation.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.45 at Unibet

Brøndby-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 8/5 19.00

Brøndby played one of their famous poor away games in Aalborg. It happens occationally, I don’t understand why, but Brøndby have some away matches, where they simply don’t show up (also happened against SønderjyskE earlier in 2016). The question is how much to put into it. They are surely not impressive offensively under head coach Skarbalius, but the defensive part has looked good for most of the time. At home, things are typically different, and I don’t think we will see the same low level for Brøndby here. Brøndby will be without the defensive midfielder Austin due to a ban and central defender Albrechtsen due to injury. Creative midfielder Kahlenberg missed the last match with injury. It is still unclear whether he returns here. If so, it will be a massive boost to the home side. FC Nordsjælland fielded the youngest formation in the history of the Superliga last weekend. With an average age of just around 21 years, it seemed like head coach Hjulmand was experimenting to see which talents to count on next season. FC Nordsjælland have nothing to play for, so it is a good chance to test a few things. It will be interesting to see if Hjulmand will do the same thing here, or he will pick older players instead. The young team did okay, but was put under pressure in the last match, so I think they will be stronger with the usual starters. Key offensive player Mor is out with a ban. This will limit FC Nordsjælland’s offensive production severely as Mor is able to attract attention from many opposing players with his quick feet.

If you look at motivation, this is clearly Brøndby’s match to win. If you look at team news, it is more even on the bad news for both sides. Will FC Nordsjælland experiment with a young line-up again? I don’t know, but I would personally prefer going for the home side here. Low stakes in case Kahlenberg should be out again.

Idea:  1 – 1.85 at Tipico