FC Vestsjælland-SønderjyskE

Friday 27/2 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (11th) did get the expected start with a loss in Parken against FC Copenhagen (2-0). FC Vestsjælland delivered a good effort, but they lacked the quality to get points. This means that they are under heavy pressure ahead of this match against SønderjyskE. A loss would be a terrible outcome for their survival hopes. Thus, we should expect to see some eager FC Vestsjælland players aiming to get their first league win since October. Captain Henrik Madsen could be back in the squad after being out with an injury for the entire pre-season. There are still some question signs regarding the quality of the new signings, and we could expect to find answers here against a more equal opponent. SønderjyskE (8th) took an important step away from relegation with a late 1-0 win against Hobro. SønderjyskE played a fine match, but lacked efficiency in front of goal. They needed a touch of magic from the speedy Silas Songani to get the win. Captain Niels Lodberg returns from suspension to bolster the central defence, while central midfielder Daniel Jensen is absent for the same reason. However, it is very fit SønderjyskE team that visits Slagelse on Friday. SønderjyskE will probably take advantage of the pressure on FC Vestsjælland to push forward by sticking to their force: counter-attacking. They won a similar match 4-0 last February.

FC Vestsjælland have only won one match in the last ten matches. SønderjyskE have only lost one in their last ten matches. Nevertheless, it was surprising at first to see SønderjyskE being favourites in an away match; that happens rarely. After analysing we do believe that the bookies are correct in picking SønderjyskE as slight favourites. For us the most interesting bet of this match is the draw. SønderjyskE have managed to get 11 draws in 18 matches, 3 out of the last 4 H2H’s have ended in a draw, and a draw would be acceptable for FC Vestsjælland (according to statements by head coach Michael Hansen).

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet

UPDATE: Tommy Bechmann, SønderjyskE's veteran striker, is suffering from a severe headache and could be out. If he is, Silas Songani will get a starting appearance, which might not be a bad thing for SønderjyskE since his speed could pose problems for FC Vestsjælland's rather slow defenders

Hobro-FC Nordsjælland

Saturday 28/2 17.00

Hobro (9th) are slowly sinking to the bottom where they were expected to be from the start. They still have a six-point deficit to FC Vestsjælland just below the relegation line, but they have only won one of the last 13 games. Hobro lost the first match of 2015, 1-0 at SønderjyskE after a tough late goal. Hobro did okay, but it was obvious that they missed talismanic defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg. With him on the pitch, the defence is much stronger. Damborg returns here after being suspended in the first match. Thus, Hobro should be able to field their strongest eleven, since they are without suspensions and injuries. FC Nordsjælland (6th) lost four regulars in the winter break and after getting replacements, head coach Kristjansson claimed that FC Nordsjælland were better now. The first match did not give that impression. FC Nordsjælland were 3-0 behind at home against Randers after 36 minutes, and they were lucky that Randers got an early red card, so they got things under control. It is difficult to replace a striker, two central midfielders and a central defender, it is vital positions and it demands time to do. Add to that key winger Uffe Bech (team top goalscorer with seven goals) is absent with an injury and you have a unconvincing team. For this match the situation is even worse: left back (and captain) Patrick Mtiliga and central defender Pascal Gregor are both suspended. FC Nordsjælland have concerning squad depth defensively, and will probably be forced to use youngsters Arnason and Mouritsen (who combined have 90 minutes of Superliga experience!).

Normally it would not be interesting to bet on Hobro at less than odds 3.00 against FC Nordsjælland, but FC Nordsjælland are in a terrible state. In the squad for the match they will only have 4 out of 19 scored goals this season. At the same time, their defence is in a problematic state without the two most vital defenders and poor alternatives on the bench. Hobro on the other hand have a perfect squad condition and a decent team that always puts in a good effort. We go for the conservative draw no bet version, but if you are willing to take a risk just take a Hobro win.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 2.025 at Bet365

Randers-Silkeborg

Sunday 1/3 14.00

Randers (3rd) got an impressive start to the season with a 3-0 win at FC Nordsjælland even though they were playing ten against eleven for 50 minutes. They were also without their two preferred strikers, suspended Ishak and injured Lundberg, but the alternatives Fall (two goals) and Brock-Madsen (one goal) had a terrific match. Ishak and Lundberg both return for this match, and head coach Colin Todd faces a difficult decision regarding who to choose for the two striker positions. Randers should also benefit from the return of central defender Mads Agesen from suspension, but two key midfielders are new in the suspended category. Captain Christian Keller and Elmar Bjarnason are both suspended. Randers have many solid alternatives for the midfield positions (Allanson, Kamper, Borring and Tverskov), but it is naturally not optimal to be without two of the key players. Silkeborg (12th) played a terrible match against Esbjerg (lost 1-3). They were absolutely horrendous at the start of the match, and the head coaching change did not have any visible positive effect. Instead Silkeborg should probably have used the transfer window for improving the current squad since it is simply too weak for the Superliga. This will be another difficult match for Silkeborg, who will just try to hold on to one point here. Jens Martin Gammelby is still suspended, otherwise no absences.

Silkeborg have lost the last nine matches and played like shit in the first match of 2015. On the other hand, Randers were the most convincing team in the first round of 2015. Despite of Randers’ midfield absences we believe that this match should end in a home win. Current odds are decent.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.57 at Bet365

OB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 1/3 17.00

OB (10th) started 2015 with a 3-0 loss against FC Midtjylland. OB deserved the loss although 3-0 was maybe a goal too much in difference. OB visibly need time to integrate the new players and figure out just how they want to play. Additionally, it was concerning to see a poor performance by star player Emil Larsen, who looks uninterested. OB will need to find some passion otherwise relegation can turn into a serious theme. This match comes a bit too soon for striker Thomas Dalgaard, who is on his way back from injury. FC Copenhagen (2nd) got off to a good start with a 2-0 win against FC Vestsjælland. The goals came from the two backs, which was quite impressive. The left back Ludwig Augustinsson made a great impression in his first match for FC Copenhagen. Offensively, FC Copenhagen still need to get Andreas Cornelius and Nicolai Jørgensen in gear before they can be counted as a serious threat for league leaders FC Midtjylland. Defensively they are rock solid and have not conceded a goal in the last five league games.

OB have a team with a lot of potential, but we reckon that they need some matches before they are really up to speed. FC Copenhagen are a well-organised team that slowly break downs the opponent and take some slim wins. We expect them to do so here as well. 0-1 or 0-2 are very likely results. OB could get problems scoring here and have not done so in the last two home games against FC Copenhagen.

Recommendation: 2  - 2.00 at Nordicbet

Idea: OB not to score – 2.55 at Nordicbet

Brøndby-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 1/3 19.00

Brøndby (4th) got a cruel start to the 2015 season. They dominated against AaB, but despite of this lost 1-0 on a goal in the 92nd minute. Instead of being a part in the medal race, Brøndby are now stuck in the middle group. On the other hand, if they can continue with performances like last Sunday, they should be difficult to pass in the table. Brøndby were even without Thomas Kahlenberg (entered late in the game) and Johan Elmander due to injuries. Both should be likely to return and claim starting positions here. They are important for this young Brøndby team, since they give some stability in a team that is otherwise very volatile in the performances. FC Midtjylland (1st) got a great start with a 3-0 win against OB. The play was not very convincing though. New striker Martin Pusic needs more time to fit into the system, while the absence of winger Pione Sisto was obvious. Sisto should return here, and this gives FC Midtjylland some extra offensive power. Right back and captain Kristian Bach Bak is doubtful due to an injury.

It is a fairly even match-up since Brøndby are a very strong home team (7 wins in 9 matches). With the offensive power of FC Midtjylland, this could potentially be a very entertaining match. We believe that there are decent chances for a match with several goals, although the poor pitch situation in Brøndby is of course a negative influence. We would not bet on a winner until the squad situation of both teams is clarified.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: Pione Sisto and Kristian Bach Bak are both out for FC Midtjylland along with central defender Jim Larsen. Important players, especially the absence of Sisto should weaken FC Midtjylland's offense and it is not good for our bet. It is also to the advantage of Brøndby, who must be slight favorites now.

Esbjerg-AaB

Monday 2/3 19.00

Esbjerg (7th) got a perfect start to the 2015 season with a deserved 3-1 win in Silkeborg. The win was very important since a loss would have sparked relegation talks. Now Esbjerg can focus on making a solid spring just like in the past two seasons. Esbjerg lost three vital players in the winter break (Pusic, Ankersen and Gomes), but that was not visible against Silkeborg, where especially striker Lasse Rise was on fire. Rise has been constantly injured for almost two years, and it was nice to see him in a starting line-up appearance. Due to poor physique he only played 45 minutes but scored two goals in the process. Rise will be a guy to watch if he can stay clear of injuries. Esbjerg will benefit from the return of vital midfielder Magnus Levken from suspension. With him back Esbjerg will have a technically gifted midfield that should be able to set up great offensive opportunities for Rise. Defensively Esbjerg looked vulnerable against Silkeborg, mainly because Esbjerg were very offensive which allowed Silkeborg to counter-attack. AaB (5th) got a late (and not very deserved) win against Brøndby, which was a great result since they ended up being without three profiles: goalkeeper of the year 2014 Nicolai Larsen and midfielders Kasper Risgård and Nicolaj Thomsen. All should return here, and this should improve AaB’s quality remarkably. AaB’s force is typically a strong midfield, why absences in this part of the pitch are problematic. AaB have a tough schedule, since they will play Club Brügge in a match Thursday night (reportedly playing with best eleven), and face Esbjerg again in a cup match next Thursday. AaB will be without the strong central defender Rasmus Thelander who is suspended here.

A fun case since the two teams are meeting each other at the same place just three days later in a cup match. The odds for Esbjerg win are around 2.20 here and 2.40 (Nordicbet) for the cup win. We would surely prefer the latter, also since AaB are likely to be forced to use a B-squad for the cup match. For the league match we are a bit tempted to back AaB, but with the match in Bruges just before, we skip from doing this. Instead we go with our gut feeling and place a bet on goals in this match. Statistics are clearly not in favour of this outcome, but Esbjerg usually plays with great energy at home, while AaB should benefit offensively from the returning players. Keep stakes low though.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: Lekven is doubtful since his wife might give birth. Definately a minus for Esbjerg if he is unable to start, since he gives the midfield a lot. Esbjerg risk being overrun by AaB's strong midfield if he is out. Söder has been sick lately, so he could also be out (will probably start though). Team news not exactly in Esbjerg's favour. 

Week 18 round-up

We are back. We feared this first round of 2015, because it is always difficult to evaluate the teams after a long break. No reason to worry though, we had a brilliant weekend. 5 out of 7 bets were successful and only two goals too much by Lasse Rise (Esbjerg) were the difference between a great weekend and a perfect weekend. We have now recorded 10 weeks in a row with a positive profit! Amazing really, but also a streak that is bound to end. It does not have to be any time soon though.

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Friday 20/2 18.30
FC Nordsjælland (5th) have made several changes over the winter break. They have lost valuable players in Anders Christiansen, Søren Christensen and Kasper Lorentzen, three players who have played a big part in FC Nordsjælland’s success over the recent years. Two Icelandic players (Baldvinsson and Thorarainson) and a Dutch player (Mulder) have replaced them. Although the new players have received nice remarks for their efforts in the pre-season matches, it is undoubtedly a big task to replace three players of such significance. Adding to this, FC Nordsjælland’s star player, the winger Uffe Bech (seven goals in autumn) has not played a part in recent friendlies due to an injury. He is a doubtful for this opening match, and it will surely be a disadvantage if he is absent. Randers (3rd) had a quiet transfer window, where Swedish midfielder Joel Allanson is only new signing. Randers had a fantastic autumn, so it will be difficult for Allanson to find a spot in the starting eleven. For the first match, Randers have some challenges. Central defender Mads Agesen and top goalscorer Mikael Ishak (five goals in autumn) are both suspended. Randers have decent alternatives in Jeppe Tverskov and Nicolaj Brock-Madsen (or even Djiby Fall), so it is not the worst absences. The injury situation of strong right back Johnny Thomsen is more concerning. Thomsen is a major doubt for this match, and Randers would surely miss his offensive raids. Alternatives are sparse, the young and unproven Mikkel Kallesøe or using a left back at the right back seems to be the possibilities.

Both teams have some issues before this match, but FC Nordsjælland seems to have the most challenging starting point. Replacing two central midfielders and a striker is not easy, and some matches might be needed to get the team up to work optimally. Randers also have some absences, but their strong area, the midfield, is complete. This should be a fairly even match, and thus value should be on Randers.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 2.26 at Unibet (put 70.6% on Randers (3.20) and 29.4% on draw (3.40))

Update: Uffe Bech is confirmed out for FC Nordsjælland, while Johnny Thomsen should be back for Randers. Good news for our bet.