Esbjerg-AaB

Monday 2/3 19.00

Esbjerg (7th) got a perfect start to the 2015 season with a deserved 3-1 win in Silkeborg. The win was very important since a loss would have sparked relegation talks. Now Esbjerg can focus on making a solid spring just like in the past two seasons. Esbjerg lost three vital players in the winter break (Pusic, Ankersen and Gomes), but that was not visible against Silkeborg, where especially striker Lasse Rise was on fire. Rise has been constantly injured for almost two years, and it was nice to see him in a starting line-up appearance. Due to poor physique he only played 45 minutes but scored two goals in the process. Rise will be a guy to watch if he can stay clear of injuries. Esbjerg will benefit from the return of vital midfielder Magnus Levken from suspension. With him back Esbjerg will have a technically gifted midfield that should be able to set up great offensive opportunities for Rise. Defensively Esbjerg looked vulnerable against Silkeborg, mainly because Esbjerg were very offensive which allowed Silkeborg to counter-attack. AaB (5th) got a late (and not very deserved) win against Brøndby, which was a great result since they ended up being without three profiles: goalkeeper of the year 2014 Nicolai Larsen and midfielders Kasper Risgård and Nicolaj Thomsen. All should return here, and this should improve AaB’s quality remarkably. AaB’s force is typically a strong midfield, why absences in this part of the pitch are problematic. AaB have a tough schedule, since they will play Club Brügge in a match Thursday night (reportedly playing with best eleven), and face Esbjerg again in a cup match next Thursday. AaB will be without the strong central defender Rasmus Thelander who is suspended here.

A fun case since the two teams are meeting each other at the same place just three days later in a cup match. The odds for Esbjerg win are around 2.20 here and 2.40 (Nordicbet) for the cup win. We would surely prefer the latter, also since AaB are likely to be forced to use a B-squad for the cup match. For the league match we are a bit tempted to back AaB, but with the match in Bruges just before, we skip from doing this. Instead we go with our gut feeling and place a bet on goals in this match. Statistics are clearly not in favour of this outcome, but Esbjerg usually plays with great energy at home, while AaB should benefit offensively from the returning players. Keep stakes low though.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: Lekven is doubtful since his wife might give birth. Definately a minus for Esbjerg if he is unable to start, since he gives the midfield a lot. Esbjerg risk being overrun by AaB's strong midfield if he is out. Söder has been sick lately, so he could also be out (will probably start though). Team news not exactly in Esbjerg's favour.