FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE

Monday 10/3 19.00

Top against bottom. FC Midtjylland (1st) stunned everybody with an amazing 1-5 win in Copenhagen. With a five-point lead they are gradually becoming the main favourite for the title. The recipe for this success is quite simple: have the best offence and defence. 38 goals have they scored in 20 matches while only 19 have been conceded. Striker Morten Rasmussen has that ability to be at the right place at the right time, which has resulted in 10 goals so far. Winger Pione Sisto outshined everybody last week and topped it off with two goals. Furthermore favourite winger Sylvester Igboun (6 goals this season) is finally back after a two game suspension. With such a potent offence SønderjyskE’s (12th) coach Lars Søndergaard is facing a big challenge. The guests have the second worst defence in conceded goals and last week’s match turned out to be a horrible defeat for the hard tested relegation favourite. A goal in stoppage time stopped the momentum SønderjyskE had gathered after a 0-4 away win the week before. It is not all dark and gloom though. Striker Ruben Okotie could have that individual quality to help them in this close league. Striker Tommy Bechmann will again be available for coach Søndergaard.

Both offences are potent at the moment and with a defence from SønderjyskE who sometimes just hand out goal opportunities (goalkeeper Skender is good at this) this could be an entertaining match-up.

Idea: Over 2.5 - 1.75 at Betfair

FC Vestsjælland-Randers

Friday 7/3 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (11th) made a good response after a 0-4 loss (vs. SønderjyskE) in the first match of 2014 by limiting the strong home team, AaB, to a 0-0 draw. FC Vestsjælland did not create any big chances themselves, but neither did AaB and that seemed to be the top priority after a dismal defensive performance previously. The lack of offensive danger is a problem though. The new striker Edward Ofere does not seem like the solution. He is tall, but neither his strength nor ball control is impressive. FC Vestsjælland should give their veteran top scorer Dennis Sørensen another chance in the starting line-up. It will probably not be on the behalf of Ofere but instead because of suspensions and injuries. FC Vestsjælland are surely without winger Rasmus Festersen and central midfielder Henrik Madsen (captain). Furthermore winger Dal Hende is suffering from an injury. Our guess is a return of Dennis Sørensen and Marc Rochester on the wings, while Jan Kristiansen will probably cover the central midfield. Festersen and Madsen are important players so it is naturally a weakening. Randers (9th) are feeling hard done after a late 0-1 loss against Brøndby. Not only did they strike the woodwork twice, they suffered the defeat due to a doubtful penalty as well. Randers did very well though and deserved the win after a physical display. This type of physical superiority will probably not be the case against equally strong FC Vestsjælland. Randers are also having lots of squad problems ahead of this match. Left back Alexander Fischer, who is normally the reserve for the injured Tamboura (very doubtful), is suspended along with central midfielder Christian Keller (captain). Furthermore several players are injured: top scorer Schwartz is surely out, other striker Brock-Madsen highly doubtful and the same goes for right back Johnny Thomsen. The problem is especially defensively where the line of back-ups is limited. Offensively Randers will probably introduce striker Djiby Fall and winger Jonas Kamper (move the creative Fisker to the centre). Both potentially key players, but they have just returned from injury so their fitness level is questionable.

FC Vestsjælland have some strong wing backs in Lumb and Nymann and they might have a very good match-up. Nevertheless FC Vestsjælland look a bit fragile with all their absentees and it will be interesting to see if they can cope without Festersen and Madsen. None of the teams have been very sharp so far in 2014 (total: 4 games and only 1 goal). It looks like a physical match where a low scoring draw is a likely outcome. We hold FC Vestsjælland as slight favourites (the bookies agree).

Ideas: X - 3.40 at Unibet

Under 2.5 goals – 1.80 at Tipico

AGF-AaB

Saturday 8/3 17.00

AGF (6th), with a new coach, made a remarkable comeback against SønderjyskE to win 2-1 on a last second goal. AGF were actually quite poor. They held the majority of ball possession but failed to create any relevant chances. The goals came from a huge mistake from SønderjyskE keeper Marin Skender who misread a long shot attempt by Danny Olsen and a chaotic overtime corner kick goal from Jens Jönsson. AGF did not look like a team capable of creating dangerous attacks. A big part of this is due to the lack of a quality striker. Jesper Lange is currently the only fit striker and he is a good defensive striker (puts pressure on defence), but absolutely no goal getter. Defensively AGF have looked decent with the combination of Anders Kure and Johan Bjørdal, but a suspension to Kure will wreck this duo. Petri Pasanen or Arthur Sorin will take over and this is a significant weakening since Kure is not only a fine defender but also a good motivator. What should add more concern for AGF is that they lost the similar match in the cup just over a week ago: 1-4 in a very uneven affair. AaB (2nd) had their difficulties against the solid defence of FC Vestsjælland (0-0). They dominated but failed to create the decisive chances. This highlight AaB’s problem when they face a structured defensively orientated opponent. Fortunately for AaB, AGF is not such an opponent. AaB will welcome back central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen from suspension and maybe also important right back Henrik Dalsgaard. In that case attacker Anders K. Jakobsen’s injury is the only thing separating AaB from the strongest line-up. AGF will have their hands full with the young midfielders Kusk and Thomsen that are quick and possess great creativity.

AaB have not lost the last 8 league matches and a week ago they smashed a similar AGF side 4-1 in the cup. AGF have earned 4 points in 2014, which is quite remarkable since a fairer outcome would have been 0 or 1 point. AaB just look a lot stronger here and therefore we pick the away win. We insure against the draw (draw no bet). Unibet’s odds are overpriced compared to the rest of the market.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 1.78 at Unibet

Brøndby-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 9/3 17.00

Brøndby (4th) were lucky with a 1-0 win in Randers on Sunday. They were physically dominated and hardly created anything. In the end talismanic striker Simon Makienok entered and earned a (doubtful) penalty that gave Brøndby a win that leaves them close to the front-runners. Brøndby will not be put under a physical pressure this time since they are meeting the smaller and more technical rivals from the northern suburbs of Copenhagen. Brøndby will probably be without their two normal starters in the central defence, Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen, who both left the last match with injuries. Although alternatives Dumic and Stenderup are experienced they do not hold the same quality. The question is whether the ball will be much in this area. We saw that Brøndby dominated a strong AaB team in the last home match and with a quality striker like Makienok likely to be fit for a starting position FC Nordsjælland could get into trouble. FC Nordsjælland (5th) are a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde team. At home on artificial grass they are strong and dominating (latest visualised in the 2-0 weekend win over Viborg with a shots on target dominance of 10 to 1). Away they are without confidence and easily controlled. The result is that FC Nordsjælland are the worst away team with only 4 points from a possible 27! FC Nordsjælland are suffering from a poor central defence and currently also the lack of their preferred striker Morten Nordstrand. Although alternative striker Aabech has impressed with 3 goals in the last 2 matches, FC Nordsjælland are undoubtedly stronger with Nordstrand on top since he is a quality striker (when fit).

It seems counterintuitive when thinking of the two teams last match, but we believe that Brøndby are the clear favourite to win this one. They are strong at home and the danger will only increase with the likely return of Makienok to the starting line-up. On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland is the leagues poorest away team, having lost 78% of their away matches this season. With that in mind we think it should be possible to give Brøndby a 50% chance of winning this one: nice value!

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.25 at Mermaidbet

OB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 9/3 19.00

OB (8th) did not look good in Esbjerg last Sunday (1-0). They were unable to create anything of reasonable danger. The difference between the two teams was highlighted by the corner statistic: 20-3 to Esbjerg. It was visible that OB lack some offensive fire power when Rasmus Falk is having an off-day and Emil Larsen is short of full fitness. The strikers Bodul and Skoubo are abysmal. Skoubo is at least decent at holding up the ball though; more than can be said about the circus clown Bodul. To highlight the poor quality of the strikers, here is the scoring records this season: Bodul 813 minutes and 1 goal, Skoubo 1009 minutes and 3 goals. So when you combine them in front you should average 0.3 goals per match from your front duo: not a winning combination. Coach Bech will be eager to give the only striker with goal in his boots, Mustafa Abdellaoue (774 minutes and 6 goals), a chance but he is still suffering from a minor injury and therefore only making short visits to the pitch. Another who might be away from the pitch is key midfielder Falk who is struggling with a groin injury. Without him OB look short of creativity. FC Copenhagen (3rd) shocked with a 1-5 loss in the potential championship decider against FC Midtjylland. Coach Solbakken looked to have underestimated the opponent by selecting a formation with too many offensive players. Furthermore it was visible that even though goalkeeper Wiland has received some critique recently, he is way better than alternative Busk, who made several mistakes. Wiland is doubtful for this match. FC Copenhagen will also be without their target man Cornelius (last season’s league top goal scorer) and winger Gislason is doubtful. Adding to this key midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen who returned from injury against FC Midtjylland looked far from old achievements. FC Copenhagen have some offensive struggles but we think the first priority will be to bolster the defence so a humiliation like the one on Sunday won’t be repeated.

Two teams with important offensive players absent. We believe that FC Copenhagen will try to win this match by employing a cautious approach. If OB then adds a striking duo of Bodul and Skoubo goals should not be on the radar. OB’s defence is not impressive, but 2.10 is still a strong offer for under 2.5 goals in a match like this.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.10 at Tipico

Week 20 round-up

A fairly uneventful betting weekend for us. We had success with our Tip of the Week. Esbjerg dominated OB and deserved the win, although OB should have been awarded a penalty in the final minutes. SønderjyskE should have beaten AGF, but poor keeping by Skender (we have criticized him in the past too) led AGF back into game. And our last recommendation: FC Copenhagen win was just far off: 1-5 against FC Midtjylland. Fairly shocking! So overall poor round for our recommendations. Our ideas were good, while our #Twitbets were decent (bet on Aabech to score was brilliant). So overall we had a plus for the weekend. Follow us next weekend for more good bets!

AaB-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 2/3 15.00

AaB (2nd) are starting to look like a proper contender for the league title. They had a match in the cup tournament midweek and they annihilated AGF away. 4-1 was almost too low a score. Last weekend they almost stole the three points from Brøndby. A goal in stoppage time one minute after AaB took the lead turned the game to a draw. This time they are playing at home and for the best home team in the league it is a big advantage. They have yet to lose a match at Nordjyske Arena (10 matches) and their SoTR is fourth best at 59%. Defender Kenneth Petersen is suspended and it will be a blow for the defence. His replacement could be midfielder Thomas Augustinussen or defender Kasper Pedersen. FC Vestsjælland (11th) was awful last weekend versus SønderjyskE. Coach Ove Pedersen said afterwards that it was the worst match they have ever played during his stint there. They had the most shots on target after a decent first half but SønderjyskE were extremely efficient. The defence are not very resistant towards the counter attack and with the two gifted midfielders Kasper Kusk and Nicolaj Thomsen FC Vestsjælland could be in trouble. With no suspensions they are all set. There is no news on whether regular defender Oliver Lund is back after injury.

AaB’s home field stats are too impressive to ignore. Their SoTR are quite well and with possibilities for counter attacks FC Vestsjælland could be in over their head.

Idea: 1 – 1.65 at Tipico

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 2/3 19.00

Even though AaB are placed somewhere in between this is regarded as a match between the two main candidates for the championship title. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are favourites for the match. They did not get the best start though with 1-1 at AGF. FC Copenhagen dominated the match but were largely inefficient in their shooting. Fortunately returned striker Cornelius had one efficient moment, which gave FC Copenhagen a goal, and probably gave Cornelius some confidence after a terrible experience in Cardiff in autumn. Cornelius physical presence will be a challenge for every team in the league, but against strong players like Sviatchenko and Banggaard his strength might not be as big an advantage as usual. Fortunately FC Copenhagen have a speedy alternative in Vetokele which will be difficult to handle for FC Midtjylland’s bit clumsy backline. FC Copenhagen looked solid at the back against AGF. Offensively they missed key midfielder Jørgensen who might be ready for this match though. FC Midtjylland (1st) started off poorly in Odense, but actually improved in the second half where they dominated the match. Nevertheless, OB scored on a brilliant shot from the distance at the very end to give FCM a heart-breaking loss (2-1). FC Midtjylland are suffering from the absence of several key players, especially midfieders: Larsen, Igboun, Hedinsson and Andersson. This is not good for their title chances. Fortunately striker Duncan looks as sharp as in the autumn and seems like the only threat for Dalgaard in the run for top scoring title.

FC Copenhagen are a strong home team and their squad looks better at the moment. We take the home win. Tipico is offering odds above the rest of the market. Grab it before it is gone!

Recommendation: 1 – 1.80 at Tipico