Week 2 Superliga previews

AGF-Viborg

Friday 22/7 20.15

AGF got an excellent start by winning a close encounter against SønderjyskE. I had AGF noted down as one of the teams that performed better than position suggested last season. They had good chance creation, but suffered under a poor goalkeeper saving rate (league low). They have now signed a new keeper in Jovanovic and he already showed class by making a great save in the first match. Offensively, AGF did fine in the absence of key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen, especially due to strong performances by the two new signings Amini and Junker. AGF welcome midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen back from injury, but he is unlikely to be ready for a starting position just yet. Rasmussen is still out. Viborg got a terrible start. They lost 0-4 at home against FC Nordsjælland, and they showed nothing promising. Offensively, they could not create anything, the new midfield was not good and even the defenders committed uncharacteristic mistakes. Viborg seem like a team with a long way to go. Things are not made easier by the absence of offensive ace Serge Deble. Viborg are now 2-1-6 without him over the last two seasons. They are simply too easy to figure out without his speed and dribbling skills. Left back Pallesen misses the match with an injury, which is bad news as he was quite strong last season.

Two teams that got entirely different starts to the season. I think Viborg will find it difficult until Deble returns, while the new midfield (3 out of 4 are new starters compared to last season) certainly need more time. You could fear AGF will find it difficult to score without striker Rasmussen, but even though I think there is small value in home win (down to around 1.90).

Recommendation: 1 – 2.00 at PartyBets

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen

Saturday 23/7 17.00

Esbjerg got a terrible start losing 4-0 at Brøndby not managing to get a single shot on target for 90 minutes! I was actually starting to be a bit more optimistic regarding Esbjerg’s chances after picking up Colid Todd as head coach. Todd seems like an excellent choice for a team that needs organisation and strategy. However, Todd obviously had no quick fix, and this match is probably not what the Esbjerg defence want now as they will have to withstand heavy pressure. The central defence of Esbjerg, which is consequently making huge personal mistakes, does really not impress me. The midfield lacks technical abilities to hold up the ball. The attack looks decent, but still have to prove it is more than fine on paper. FC Copenhagen have done what they want until now. They smashed Lyngby 3-0 in the opener, while they beat Crusaders from Northern Ireland with 6-0 in the midweek (with a B-selection). FC Copenhagen look so strong, even the reserves would be major favourites against Esbjerg. That might be the only issue for FC Copenhagen. Will they rest players for the vital Champions League qualifier against Astra from Romania next Wednesday? It is a possibility, but I still expect them to be close to the strongest line-up here.

There appears to be quality difference. Esbjerg have not looked worse in many years, and FC Copenhagen have not looked stronger. Esbjerg have lost the last six league games against FC Copenhagen and anything else would be quite surprising. I won’t go for the handicap win since FC Copenhagen might want to save energy for Wednesday.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.58 at Pinnacle

Horsens-SønderjyskE

Sunday 24/7 12.00

Horsens got a fine start against AaB (1-1), although they must be disappointed after conceding a late equaliser. Horsens proved that they are a physical team with a good attitude. They are probably not the most talented bunch, but they have a few players with some extraordinary skills, so they are not an easy opponent. I expect them to take a defensive approach and hope that some opportunities arrive on counters or set pieces. SønderjyskE had to play 120 minutes Thursday night to eliminate Strømsgodset in Europa League. A great result, but not a lot of resting ahead of this match, and SønderjyskE cannot brag about a big squad depth. We will probably see them rotate a bit here, and it cannot avoid having a cost in terms of quality. SønderjyskE are however a team that always shows great commitment, so they won’t just take it easy.

It is difficult to guess what SønderjyskE will arrive with as they also have a Europa League next week. Normally, this would be away win for me given the price, but just too many uncertainties. Instead, a prefer picking this as low scoring. Horsens were the team with most clean sheets in the 1st Divison last season (17) and SønderjyskE are also defensively solid and perhaps not overly energetic on Sunday.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Unibet

Lyngby-OB

Sunday 24/7 14.00

Lyngby got the most difficult start in their return to the Superliga. It was no surprise that they ended up losing away to FC Copenhagen. The result 3-0 suggests that there is still some way to go for the promoted club. They have made some fine signings, but overall they still need to adjust to playing at a higher level. OB did not get a good result in the opener. 0-0 against Silkeborg at home was not impressive, but if you look behind the score, OB did actually play a fine match. They won the shooting statistic 23-8, the opposition goalkeeper had a great day and striker Festersen even missed a penalty. OB created the chances you could expect, but did not take advantage. Another positive was the new defence with Tverskov, Pereira and Petersen, which looked quite solid and did not give away major chances. Only concern is the midfield, which might lack some creativity, but let’s see – OB did created chances even though in the first game. OB have just sold defender/midfielder Skulason to Lokeren. It is a loss, but Skulason was never a key player in OB, despite of his international merits for Iceland. There have been some concerns regarding the fitness of defender Petersen and striker Jacobsen, but both are set to play.

Lyngby have made some fine signings during the summer break, but overall they are still a promoted club and expected to take a position in the lower half. OB on the other hand have fine chances of clinching a top 6 position and showed good signs in the first match. I hold OB as favourite here and even believe there should be value down to 2.30. It is of course vital that Petersen and Jacobsen will play as both are key for OB, but I expect that to be the case.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.50 at Pinnacle

Silkeborg-Brøndby

Sunday 24/7 16.00

UPDATE: Unfortunately, the worst thing happened for this bet as Brøndby were forced to play 120 minutes on Thursday in the Europa League with several players looking very tired at the end. The extra 30 minutes will undoubtedly make this match more of a challenge, so it limits the value of this bet.
I think Silkeborg are happy with 1 point against OB in the first round after returning to the Superliga (0-0). Silkeborg were quite lucky. Goalkeeper Nørgaard had two terrific stops and OB missed a penalty. Silkeborg on the other hand did not create much and were largely happy just to defend. Silkeborg allowed 12 shots from the penalty box. This is a quite high number and under normal circumstances you would expect the opponent to score at least once if not more with that number of chances. I am not all too impressed by Silkeborg. I only think they have Skov as a real offensive threat and defensively they are decent, but not unbreakable. Brøndby are on a high at the moment. They 
have smashed all opposition until now with their aggressive style of playing. They demolished a hapless Esbjerg side 4-0 in the opener, winning shots on target 12-0. So Brøndby enter in fine form with high morale here. The only concern is the influence of Europa League. Brøndby will play return game against Scottish Hibernian Thursday, and this could have an influence on the match on Sunday in terms of tired players or some kind of rotation.

Silkeborg looked destined for the lower spots, while Brøndby’s performances (and budget) suggest they will be a top 3 team this season. The match against Hibernian could have an influence, but I still think we will see a strong and motivated Brøndby side here. I expected odds below 2.00 for away win, so I will happily take the odds on offer here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.24 at Pinnacle

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 24/7 18.00

FC Nordsjælland played a splendid opening match beating Viborg 4-0 away. It surprised many as FC Nordsjælland were pretty bad last season, but the return of striker Ingvartsen from injury combined with the signing of offensive midfielder Fellah seem to have improved the offensive. Defensively, the young players have had some more time to evolve and it seems to work. I still believe FC Nordsjælland have quite a way to go, but they do seem somewhat stronger than last season. A concern for this match is the injury of left back Pedersen, who has played strongly of late. FC Midtjylland should have won their opener against Randers (2-2), but they failed to finish the game off. Despite their dominance, I was slightly disappointed, as I think they have more potential than they showed. It is a loss that striker Pusic is likely to be out here with an injury as he is the most consistent striker in the squad. A positive thing is the return to great form of winger Pione Sisto. He finally seems to have overcome groin injuries, which allows him to reach a high level. He will be the guy to shut down for FC Nordsjælland. FC Midtjylland will play Europa League next Thursday, but I don’t think they will rotate for it.

FC Nordsjælland have won the last six home games (including cup games) against FC Midtjylland! FC Midtjylland seem to hate playing against FC Nordsjælland on the league’s only artificial pitch. It would be obvious to pick FC Nordsjælland then, but I just don’t think the price is attractive given they face a stronger opponent. Instead, I will pick this out as an over match. Both teams have proven great offensive strength lately and seem a bit stronger in that part of the pitch.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.04 at SBOBet

Randers-AaB

Sunday 24/7 20.00

Randers got an excellent result at FC Midtjylland in the opening round (2-2), but they were super efficient as they scored on the only two shots they had on target. Randers were also limited to only two shots in the penalty box, which is very low. It shows that Randers were not on top offensively, and especially key striker Ishak looked short of form, possibly due to just returning from an injury. Defensively, Randers played okay, but overall I am not too impressed with the quality of the defence. Especially, central defender Agesen seems to be a weak point. AaB had a slightly disappointing start to the season with a 1-1 result against Horsens. AaB dominated in periods, but not as much as you could expect against a promoted club on own turf. AaB have made several changes compared to last season, so it is natural that they need some time – but they also look weaker. I am still uncertain regarding the true quality of this AaB side, but they do not look like a top 3 team.

Two teams that looks significantly weaker than last season. I really find this match difficult to assess, but I think the bookies got it somewhat right as Randers on home turf deserve to be small favourites. Nothing stands out as particularly valuable, but the draw could be a final result that both teams can accept.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Betfair Sportsbook

Week 1 round-up

Great start to the season with all three recommendations being successful. Hopefully, we can just continue delivering profit round after round this season. As last season, I will continue to write down to closing odds as it is usually assumed to be closest to the true price. Sadly, the Tip of the Week did not have closing odds, which annoys me. However, I think the match showed that the market got it wrong as FC Nordsjælland smashed Viborg 4-0. Opening round uncertainty, I guess.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland 2 (+0.25) (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.93

Closing odds: 2.00

FC Copenhagen-Lyngby (Lyngby u/ 0.5)

Our pick: 1.93

Closing odds: Not available

Brøndby-Esbjerg Over 2.5

Our pick: 2.01

Closing odds: 1.88

Week 1 Superliga previews

Time to start the season. Remember that you can find the season preview with a team-by-team review here: http://superligabets.blogspot.dk/2016/07/danish-superliga-20162017-preview_6.html

Here are the betting previews for the first round:

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 15/7 18.00

Viborg have not had the best preparations. They have been on a losing streak in the three preparation matches and they have struggled with some injuries. Most importantly is the absence of striker Serge Deble. Although he was not a goal machine last season (5 goals and 5 assists), he attracts a lot of attention with his speed and dribbling skills. Without him Viborg went 2-1-5, not impressive – and it shows that Viborg are easier to contain without him. Defensively, Viborg were really good last season, but a number of injuries have hampered the preparations. Fortunately, most players are set to be ready here, but it has not been an optimal preparations. FC Nordsjælland have not made many changes compared to last season, but consistency is never a bad thing. FC Nordsjælland are without injuries for the really important players, and I actually see them as slightly stronger now than last season, since striker Ingvartsen is finally back in full speed after a longer injury break. I find the offensive FC Nordsjælland setup with John, Fellah, Mikkelsen and Ingvartsen as a potentially quite potent attack. Goalkeeper David Jensen is set to miss the match, but replacement Runarsson is not much worse.

FC Nordsjælland often struggle in away matches, but I think they look stronger than Viborg here. To me, the absence of Deble will be vital, and I think a Viborg side that has made a number of replacements in the summer break in midfield could need some more time to get going. I only hold Viborg as small favourite here, mainly due to FC Nordsjælland’s tendency to perform poorly away from home. This leaves plenty of value on the away side.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.93 at SBOBet

OB-Silkeborg

Friday 15/7 20.15

OB have sold their most important player in Falk, but they have made several good signings, particularly for the defence, which was a weak point last season. With the defence looking more solid, it will be interesting to see if OB can continue to be as productive without creative ace Falk. They still have two competent strikers in Festersen and Jacobsen, but it will be interesting to see who will step up to provide them with key passes. OB are without influential midfielder/defender Ari Skulason, who is on holiday after being a part of the Icelandic national team during the Euro 2016. Apart from his absence, OB should field the strongest eleven. Silkeborg are a promoted club, and they have deserved to rely on the players securing the promotion. They have several experienced players, but overall they don’t have the most exciting squad. They will rely on playing physically and defensively and hope that it will be adequate for another season in the league. However, I am particularly interested in seeing how winger Robert Skov evolves as he has shown great things lately.

OB look stronger, but Silkeborg have a lot of experience, so I don’t expect OB to just run over Silkeborg. It will probably be a tight match with OB having the possession and Silkeborg defending and awaiting set pieces. Looking at the odds, I have very small value in home win.

Idea: 1 – 1.93 at Pinnacle

FC Copenhagen-Lyngby

Saturday 16/7 18.30

FC Copenhagen get what looks like an easy start to the season. They look very strong, especially if they can keep Delaney on the central midfield, which currently appears to be the case. They showed their strength on Wednesday, when they comfortably beat Crusaders of Northern Ireland in the Champions League qualifications (3-0). I think FC Copenhagen will put Lyngby under pressure from the start, but if/when they get the lead, I think they will focus more on containing and saving energy for what will be a tough schedule with two games per week. Lyngby have really made some nice signings ahead of their return season to the Superliga. However, this is a really difficult match for them, and I expect them to be mostly focused on not conceding. They have made a quality goalkeeper signing in Jesper Hansen and he is set to get a tough debut here.

FC Copenhagen are a few levels above Lyngby and they will be eager to start the season off with a victory.  I find it difficult to see any other outcome here given the professional nature of the squad and I have slim value in the home win and a clean sheet.

Recommendation: Lyngby under 0.5 goals – 2.02 at Unibet

Idea: 1 – 1.45 at SBOBet

SønderjyskE-AGF

Sunday 17/7 13.00

SønderjyskE obtained a magnificent 2nd place last season. I would be hugely surprise to see a repeat of that. The squad has not changed much, but SønderjyskE are now facing a tighter schedule with European matches. Furthermore, their success last season was mainly driven by a scoring percentage that was way above all the other teams. To me this signals that SønderjyskE were lucky. No doubt, they have a fine team with committed players and a clear strategy, but they have one of the lowest budgets in the league, so it should just be a matter of time before they return to their normal position in the league. SønderjyskE are struggling with some injuries ahead of this match. Offensive midfielder Madsen is out with an injury (9 goals last season), while winger Absalonsen (12 goals last season) is doubtful. These are the two top goalscorers for SønderjyskE last season, so it is quite problematic. AGF were quite good last season. I think they deserved more points than they got as they had a pretty good dominance of the games. The problem was the low saving percentage, and AGF has reacted by signing a new goalkeeper. It will be interesting to see if it will help. AGF have made some interesting signings for the midfield, which should dominate many opponents. Unfortunately, vital striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen (team top goalscorer last season with 14 goals) misses the match with an injury. The replacement Kasper Junker is an unproven young player, so it looks like a big loss.

It is always difficult to assess the first match of the season, but my feeling is that value, if any, is on AGF. They face offensive problems, but the strong midfield should be able to dominate, while SønderjyskE are likely to be affected by Europa League matches (plays first match on Thursday against Strømsgodset).

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.975 at Bet365

AaB-Horsens

Sunday 17/7 16.00

AaB have lost several key players during the offseason. Among them the league top goalscorer (Spalvis) and the assist leader (Thomsen). They have made some signings to replace them, but they are unlikely to be of the same level – and certainly not in the first matches of the season. AaB still have a strong midfield with the likes of Risgård and Würtz, but there is a number of question marks concerning other positions. Horsens are a newcomer. They will arrive with a defensive and aggressive attitude. They do not look particularly strong, but they could be difficult to beat. Unfortunately, they face injury concerns regarding possibly the two most important players: central defender Sanneh and offensive midfielder Aabech. Both risk missing the match. Furthermore, Horsens managed to lose 2-0 to FC Midtjylland’s reserves in the last preparation match.

Much depends on the fitness status of Aabech and Sanneh. If they are out, I think value should be on the home side, which despite of the many departures still look significantly stronger. If they are in, I would skip the match.

Idea: 1 – 1.83 at Nordicbet

Brøndby-Esbjerg

Sunday 17/7 18.00

Brøndby will be very interesting to follow, as they will introduce a high-pressing strategy under new head coach Zorninger. Based on the matches played, it seems to be pretty boom or bust. In any case, it appears to leave them more fragile at the back, while also improving their offensive threat due to many balls won high. Brøndby face a tough schedule with a Europa League match against Hibernians on Thursday. Esbjerg finally got a new head coach, former Randers coach Colin Todd. He seems like a great fit for an Esbjerg squad that has struggled under lack of strategy in the last season. Todd knows exactly how to play: 4-4-2 with a strong organisation. The question is if Esbjerg’s players can take in the new tactical approach without having a single preparation match with Todd in charge.

I don’t really know what to expect from Esbjerg just yet. And as Brøndby have a tight schedule, I am not certain that there is value in the home win here. Instead, I will go for goals. I have a clear impression that Brøndby will change from being a clear under team in spring to an over team, due to the massive change of strategy. Esbjerg did not have a strong defence last season, and a 4-4-2 formation suggests that they probably won’t be overly defensive.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.01 at SBOBet

FC Midtjylland-Randers

Monday 18/7 19.00

FC Midtjylland received terrible news ahead of the season as defensive midfielder Sparv is out for 6 months. Sparv is a clever player and an integral part of FC Midtjylland’s central axis, so interesting how he will replaced, but the task looks to be given to new signing Halsti. FC Midtjylland have a strong team and looks like the only real threat for FC Copenhagen. However, the start of the season will be difficult as they are also playing midweek matches. If they get a poor start Thursday against Vaduz, they might rest a few players for the return match. Randers lost their highly appreciated head coach Todd and a few important players during the break. So they should be somewhat weaker for the upcoming season. Too bad as Randers looked like one of the strongest teams in spring. Randers still have a fine squad, but I see them having difficulties in the defensive part of the pitch where I am not too impressed by central defender Agesen and sceptical towards the new signed keeper Due. Offensively, they have some quality players, but unfortunately, the best player, Ishak is doubtful due to injury.

Only idea pick as I am not certain that FC Midtjylland will arrive with the best eleven due to the European matches. However, if they do, which I expect, I see them as pretty clear favourites as they appear stronger in every part of the team.

Idea: 1 – 1.99 at Pinnacle

Remaining previews will arrive later..

Danish Superliga 2016/2017 preview

With only one week to go until the Danish Superliga kicks off. It is time to look ahead to what is in store. The league will change for the upcoming season. It has been expanded from 12 to 14 teams, and the league will be split into a championship play-off and a relegation play-off after 26 rounds (and keeping all the points gathered so far). Top 6 will play to win the title. The last 8 will play in order to avoid relegation (the best team gets a shot of European qualification). This was the short explanation. It will be interesting to see how the first season with the new system evolves.

Summer changes club-by-club

AaB

Position last season: 5th

Key signings:

Markus Holgersson – central defender (Anothosis)

Marco Meilinger – winger (Austria Vienna)

Casper Sloth – central midfielder (Leeds)

Key departures:

Nicolaj Thomsen – winger (Nantes)

Lukas Spalvis – striker (Sporting Lisbon)

Kenneth Emil Petersen – central defender (OB)

Rasmus Jönsson – attacker (OB)

AaB face a big challenge here. They have lost their most important striker, their most important midfielder and their most important defender. They have made some signings in order to replace them, but it seems like they mostly look for replacements within the current squad. I see AaB as severely weakened. It is not easy to lose the league top goalscorer (Spalvis) and assist leader (Thomsen) from last season. AaB still have some quality players with a strong commitment to the club, but it will be difficult to improve compared to the last season.

AGF

Position last season: 10th

Key signings:

Martin Spelmann – midfielder (Genclerbirligi)

Aleksandr Jovanovic – goalkeeper (Radnicki Nic)

Mustafa Amini – midfielder (Randers)

Key departures:

Kim Aabech – offensive midfielder (Horsens)

Josip Elez – central defender (loan from Lazio ended)

AGF had a fine return to the Superliga. I think the deserved a higher position, and their fundamental stats from last season suggest so too as they ranked 5th on SoTR for instance. One of the big problems for AGF was the poor saving percentage. Actually, they had the lowest saving percentage in the league by a distance, so the signing of Jovanovic could potentially be vital. Spelmann and Amini should both add quality to the midfield, while the departure of Elez will hurt as AGF were hoping to maintain him. AGF also have some offensive issues as key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen picked up an injury in pre-season and could be out for the start of the season. AGF have no clear back-up, but in the strongest formation, AGF should be able to improve the 10th place from last season.

Brøndby

Position last season: 4th

Key signings:

Jonas Borring – winger (Randers)

Benedikt Röcker – central defender (Greuther Fürth)

Key departures:

Daniel Agger – central defender (end of career)

Riza Durmisi – left back (Betis)

Martin Ørnskov – central midfielder (Lyngby)

Magnus Eriksson – offensive midfielder (Djurgården)

Johan Elmander – striker (out of contract)

Brøndby’s main signing is probably the new head coach, Alexander Zorninger. Zorninger has recently coached Stuttgart and is known for a high-pressing strategy, which will mean that we will see Brøndby playing very differently. Brøndby have not impressed on the transfer market. Borring and Röcker look like decent signings, but the two Danish internationals Agger and Durmisi will be very hard to replace. Brøndby look weaker than last season, but last season had so much off-the-pitch chaos that Brøndby could improve just based on more stability off-the-pitch. However, I am slightly concerned about the new strategy. It could take time to implement, why Brøndby could suffer at the start of the season.

Esbjerg

Position last season: 11th

Key signings:

Mads Hvilsom – striker/winger (Eintracht Braunschweig)

Brent McGrath – striker (FC Fredericia)

Key departures:

Lasse Rise – striker (Lyngby)

Mick van Buren – striker (Slavia Prague)

Mohammed Fellah – offensive midfielder (FC Nordsjælland)

Chaos! Esbjerg have already fired head coach Jonas Dal after only a short stint in charge. No replacements have been found yet. The players have seemed less than happy for a longer period, and there have not seemed to be a clear strategy with the signings. However, Esbjerg have a lot of expensive players in the squad, and if the right coach arrives, we might see them improve significantly. The other could also be the case, and Esbjerg certainly risk relegation if they don’t improve compared to last season.

FC Copenhagen

Position last season: 1st

Key signings:

Jan Gregus – central midfielder (Jablonec)

Andrija Pavlovic – striker (Cukaricki)

Rasmus Falk – offensive midfielder (OB)

Key departures:

Nicolai Jørgensen – attacker (Feyenoord)

FC Copenhagen were significantly stronger than every other team last season and I expect the same to be the case here. They have lost Jørgensen who you could argue to being the best player in the league, but they have made some nice signings. Gregus is a Slovakian international, Pavlovic is a talented Serbian striker, while Rasmus Falk is an excellent player that also leaded the assist table last season. FC Copenhagen will probably also lose central midfielder Delaney, which will be a big loss, but with the signings made, I expect to see FC Copenhagen at the same dominant level.

FC Midtjylland

Position last season: 3rd

Key signings:

Markus Halsti – central midfielder/defender (DC United)

Key departures:

Nikolaj Bodurov – central defender (loan from Fulham ended)

Kristian Bach Bak – right bak (end of career)

Petter Andersson – offensive midfielder (out of contract)

FC Midtjylland is probably the only team with a decent shot at taking the title. However, I see them as somewhat weakened compared to last season. They lost important players in the winter break, and the same is the case here without new ones arriving. However, the starting eleven is still of fine quality. Of the departures, only Hassan (just confirmed he is staying!) seems like a loss as Bodurov was an ordinary defender, while Bak and Andersson were too troubled by injuries. For FC Midtjylland to challenge FC Copenhagen, they will need some of their many young talents like Duelund and Sisto to step up.

FC Nordsjælland

Position last season: 9th

Key signings:

Mohammed Fellah – offensive midfielder (Esbjerg)

Key departures:

Emre Mor – attacker (Dortmund)

David Moberg Karlsson – winger (IFK Norrköping)

Martin Vingaard – central midfielder (out of contract)

FC Nordsjælland did not impress me last season. However, it seems like FC Nordsjælland are mainly investing in evolving talents, and this seem to be working according to plans with the major sale of Mor to Dortmund. I think the FC Nordsjælland lack experience, and with the departure of Vingaard, the side is only getting younger and more inexperienced. However, given the investment in using talents last season, maybe it will pay-off this season with many players being on a higher level. In any case, I would surprised to see FC Nordsjælland reach the play-offs.

Horsens

Position last season: 3rd in the 1st Division

Key signings:

Kim Aabech – offensive midfielder (AGF)
Hallur Hansson – central midfielder (Vendsyssel FF)

Key departures:

None

Horsens arrived in the new Superliga on the last open position, so they should expect to face a tough season. I think they have made some great signings. Hansson was an important player for Vendsyssel, while Aabech is a highly skilled player that just did not fit into the new style of playing for AGF. Aabech should be a profile for Horsens. We should expect to see Horsens as a very hard working team that will try to make matches physical as they have many strong players.

Lyngby

Position last season: 1st in 1st Division

Key signings:

Jesper Hansen – goalkeeper (Bastia)

Martin Ørnskov – central midfielder (Brøndby)

Lasse Rise – striker (Esbjerg)

Key departures:

None

I think Lyngby have made some quality signings. Hansen is solid goalkeeper, while Ørnskov has a lot of experience. Rise is a striker that have had many problems with injuries in the past, but when fit he is a force. Rumours suggest that Lyngby will be attracting even more quality, so I think we should see a Lyngby team that won’t be an easy opponent for anyone. If they get into a good run, they might even challenge for play-offs.

OB

Position last season: 7th

Key signings:

Kenneth Emil Petersen – central defender (AaB)

Jeppe Tverskov – central defender (Randers)

Joao Pereira – back (SønderjyskE)

Rasmus Jönsson – attacker (AaB)

Key departures:

Rasmus Falk – offensive midfielder (FC Copenhagen)

Lasse Nielsen – central defender (Lech Poznan)

I think OB have made some really interesting signings. They have had major problems at the back, and with the signings of Petersen, Pereira and Tverskov they add experience and talent. This should mean that OB should look significant more solid at the back. Offensively, they could get into problems. Falk was without a doubt the most important player in OB as he was the creative force of the team. Jönsson is the replacement, but he will have to improve significantly from his level in AaB last season.

Randers

Position last season: 6th

Key signings:

Frederik Due – goalkeeper (HB Køge)

Kasper Enghardt – central midfielder (Helsingør)

Key departures:

Kalle Johnsson – goalkeeper (Guingamp)

Jeppe Tverskov – central defender (OB)
Mustafa Amini – central midfielder (AGF)

Randers were one of the strongest team in spring, but I fear that they might look entirely different after the summer break. They have lost the head coach Colin Todd, and replaced him with Kristjansson who did not have much success in FC Nordsjælland. They have lost a quality goalkeeper in Johnsson and replaced him with a 1st Division goalkeeper. They have lost a central midfielder and replaced him with another 1st Division player, and the absence of Tverskov have not been covered. I think Randers have some good players in the offensive part of the pitch, but they could face issues defensively.

Silkeborg

Position last season: 2nd in 1st Division

Key signings:

Niels Bisp – central defender (Vejle)

Key departures:

Nicolaj Ritter – left back (SønderjyskE)

Not much has happened in Silkeborg after the promotion. They have signed Bisp to improve the defence, while the talented Ritter has left. Silkeborg is a team with many experienced players, and I think we will see them playing defensively in order to secure another year in the league, but they are deservedly among the favourites for relegation.

SønderjyskE

Position last season: 2nd

Key signings:

Nicolaj Ritter – left back (Silkeborg)

Matthias Maak – central defender (SV Grödig)

Key departures:

Joao Pereira – left back (OB)

Francis Dickoh – central defender (out of contract)

SønderjyskE had a fantastic season, where they really overperformed. Now they face a difficult second season, where they also have to focus on European football (at least two extra matches). They have not upgraded the squad, but mostly focused on replacing the departing players. I don’t expect them to do as well next season. Their fundamental stats suggested a position from 4th to 8th last season, but SønderjyskE were so efficient in front of goal, where no other team could match their scoring percentage. I don’t see them doing this again and with the squad unimproved and more matches to play, I think we will see them fade.

Viborg

Position last season: 8th

Key signings:

Christian Keller – central midfielder (Randers)

Andreas Bruhn – winger (AaB)

Oliver Thychosen – winger (FC Nordsjælland)

Jung-Bin Park – attacker (Hobro)

Key departures:

Lukas Lerager – central midfielder (Zulte Waregem)

Sebastian Andersen – winger (Hobro)

Viborg did perform above expectations last season. They were solid at the back and had some spectacular offensive players to create some danger. The departure of Lerager will concern as he was important on a very hard-working central midfield. Keller is the obvious replacement, but he is an old guy and no longer in his hey-day. Offensively, the signing of Park is interesting. He is a player with great technique and finishing, so it could be a nice move. However, if Viborg should sell Deble as rumours indicate, Viborg look severely weakened in the front-line. Viborg are set to start the season with injury worries in the central defence, why they could get a poor start.

Season prediction

Based on inputs in the form of Shots on target ratio (SOTR), scoring percentage and saving percentage, I have tried to simulate the upcoming Superliga season. Below you find my prediction for winner, play-off qualification (top 6) and relegation. Need to keep in mind that is based on a model, where my inputs are fundamental. If the inputs are wrong, things will change significantly. However, the model should prove a good base for what to expect in the season.

Models have been updated after an error was spotted in the original estimation. New tabels:

Season bets

FC Copenhagen to win the league

Odds: 1.50 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen appear significantly stronger than all other clubs. FC Midtjylland could have had a chance, but they have not invested in their squad – in fact more the opposite, so in a season expanded with 3 more matches, FC Copenhagen’s big squad should show their superiority.

Santander top goalscorer

Odds: 10 at Unibet

Very nice price from Unibet. Santander was deadly in spring, scoring 12 goals in 15 matches. He is the target man for FC Copenhagen, the major favourite to win the league. I have him as clear favourite to take this title, and I doubt FC Copenhagen will sell him in the winter break, they would rather keep him until the end of the season. One of the main rivals, Morten Rasmussen of AGF, just picked up an injury and is set to miss the start of the season.

OB in top 6

Odds: 2.25 at Bet365

OB have improved their backline significantly and in a period, where most other teams seem to have sold out, OB appear to have improved. I think they stand a good chance of obtaining a top 6 spot as they have a solid backline, a good midfield and some very dangerous attackers (Festersen and Jacobsen). Yes, offensive ace Falk has left for FC Copenhagen, but OB should have a good chance anyway.

Esbjerg to relegate directly

Odds: 10 at Danske Spil
Situation is very chaotic in Esbjerg. No current permanent head coach. No clear strategy. Poor commitment from the players – several looking for an exit. Esbjerg should have a too strong material to go down, but given the new style of the relegation race, it could easily happen if they have a poor period at the end of the season. I think odds 10 is a nice price for a very unbalanced team. 

Week 33 round-up (end of season)

Season is over. We ended with a small minus for the round, but both recommendation picks were successful. I have added the 3 season bets to the #Twitbets section. Only one was successful (FC Copenhagen to win at 1.55), while AaB in top 3 failed and the same was the case for AGF to finish higher than FC Nordsjælland, although this was a win until 5 minutes remained of the season. Overall, it wraps up a solid season for Superligabets. We finish with +8% return for the season, which is excellent. Only minus is the way this profit arrived. Tip of the Week was excellent, but the other recommendations were quite bad, and the season was mostly saved by some great idea picks. I hope that I can hit the same yield next season, but hopefully with the success being primarily on the recommendations. Still, I think it is a great feat delivering profit while betting on every single Superliga match and not just a selected few.

I hope you enjoyed following the blog throughout the season and hopefully you turned it into making a profit.

Finally, as something new I started posting the betting and closing odds on all our recommendations in 2016. Here is the wrap up combined with the betting and closing odds for this round (again we had an excellent spot):

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Brøndby-SønderjyskE 2 (+0.25)

Our pick: 1.875

Closing odds: 1.70

Goalscorer bet on Santander not included due to being a special market

Here is an overview of the recommendations from 2016 (including #Twitbets on AH or 1X2):

Odds dropped: 34 (77%)

Odds the same: 2 (5%)

Odds increased: 8 (18%)