Week 2 Superliga previews

AGF-Viborg

Friday 22/7 20.15

AGF got an excellent start by winning a close encounter against SønderjyskE. I had AGF noted down as one of the teams that performed better than position suggested last season. They had good chance creation, but suffered under a poor goalkeeper saving rate (league low). They have now signed a new keeper in Jovanovic and he already showed class by making a great save in the first match. Offensively, AGF did fine in the absence of key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen, especially due to strong performances by the two new signings Amini and Junker. AGF welcome midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen back from injury, but he is unlikely to be ready for a starting position just yet. Rasmussen is still out. Viborg got a terrible start. They lost 0-4 at home against FC Nordsjælland, and they showed nothing promising. Offensively, they could not create anything, the new midfield was not good and even the defenders committed uncharacteristic mistakes. Viborg seem like a team with a long way to go. Things are not made easier by the absence of offensive ace Serge Deble. Viborg are now 2-1-6 without him over the last two seasons. They are simply too easy to figure out without his speed and dribbling skills. Left back Pallesen misses the match with an injury, which is bad news as he was quite strong last season.

Two teams that got entirely different starts to the season. I think Viborg will find it difficult until Deble returns, while the new midfield (3 out of 4 are new starters compared to last season) certainly need more time. You could fear AGF will find it difficult to score without striker Rasmussen, but even though I think there is small value in home win (down to around 1.90).

Recommendation: 1 – 2.00 at PartyBets

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen

Saturday 23/7 17.00

Esbjerg got a terrible start losing 4-0 at Brøndby not managing to get a single shot on target for 90 minutes! I was actually starting to be a bit more optimistic regarding Esbjerg’s chances after picking up Colid Todd as head coach. Todd seems like an excellent choice for a team that needs organisation and strategy. However, Todd obviously had no quick fix, and this match is probably not what the Esbjerg defence want now as they will have to withstand heavy pressure. The central defence of Esbjerg, which is consequently making huge personal mistakes, does really not impress me. The midfield lacks technical abilities to hold up the ball. The attack looks decent, but still have to prove it is more than fine on paper. FC Copenhagen have done what they want until now. They smashed Lyngby 3-0 in the opener, while they beat Crusaders from Northern Ireland with 6-0 in the midweek (with a B-selection). FC Copenhagen look so strong, even the reserves would be major favourites against Esbjerg. That might be the only issue for FC Copenhagen. Will they rest players for the vital Champions League qualifier against Astra from Romania next Wednesday? It is a possibility, but I still expect them to be close to the strongest line-up here.

There appears to be quality difference. Esbjerg have not looked worse in many years, and FC Copenhagen have not looked stronger. Esbjerg have lost the last six league games against FC Copenhagen and anything else would be quite surprising. I won’t go for the handicap win since FC Copenhagen might want to save energy for Wednesday.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.58 at Pinnacle

Horsens-SønderjyskE

Sunday 24/7 12.00

Horsens got a fine start against AaB (1-1), although they must be disappointed after conceding a late equaliser. Horsens proved that they are a physical team with a good attitude. They are probably not the most talented bunch, but they have a few players with some extraordinary skills, so they are not an easy opponent. I expect them to take a defensive approach and hope that some opportunities arrive on counters or set pieces. SønderjyskE had to play 120 minutes Thursday night to eliminate Strømsgodset in Europa League. A great result, but not a lot of resting ahead of this match, and SønderjyskE cannot brag about a big squad depth. We will probably see them rotate a bit here, and it cannot avoid having a cost in terms of quality. SønderjyskE are however a team that always shows great commitment, so they won’t just take it easy.

It is difficult to guess what SønderjyskE will arrive with as they also have a Europa League next week. Normally, this would be away win for me given the price, but just too many uncertainties. Instead, a prefer picking this as low scoring. Horsens were the team with most clean sheets in the 1st Divison last season (17) and SønderjyskE are also defensively solid and perhaps not overly energetic on Sunday.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Unibet

Lyngby-OB

Sunday 24/7 14.00

Lyngby got the most difficult start in their return to the Superliga. It was no surprise that they ended up losing away to FC Copenhagen. The result 3-0 suggests that there is still some way to go for the promoted club. They have made some fine signings, but overall they still need to adjust to playing at a higher level. OB did not get a good result in the opener. 0-0 against Silkeborg at home was not impressive, but if you look behind the score, OB did actually play a fine match. They won the shooting statistic 23-8, the opposition goalkeeper had a great day and striker Festersen even missed a penalty. OB created the chances you could expect, but did not take advantage. Another positive was the new defence with Tverskov, Pereira and Petersen, which looked quite solid and did not give away major chances. Only concern is the midfield, which might lack some creativity, but let’s see – OB did created chances even though in the first game. OB have just sold defender/midfielder Skulason to Lokeren. It is a loss, but Skulason was never a key player in OB, despite of his international merits for Iceland. There have been some concerns regarding the fitness of defender Petersen and striker Jacobsen, but both are set to play.

Lyngby have made some fine signings during the summer break, but overall they are still a promoted club and expected to take a position in the lower half. OB on the other hand have fine chances of clinching a top 6 position and showed good signs in the first match. I hold OB as favourite here and even believe there should be value down to 2.30. It is of course vital that Petersen and Jacobsen will play as both are key for OB, but I expect that to be the case.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.50 at Pinnacle

Silkeborg-Brøndby

Sunday 24/7 16.00

UPDATE: Unfortunately, the worst thing happened for this bet as Brøndby were forced to play 120 minutes on Thursday in the Europa League with several players looking very tired at the end. The extra 30 minutes will undoubtedly make this match more of a challenge, so it limits the value of this bet.
I think Silkeborg are happy with 1 point against OB in the first round after returning to the Superliga (0-0). Silkeborg were quite lucky. Goalkeeper Nørgaard had two terrific stops and OB missed a penalty. Silkeborg on the other hand did not create much and were largely happy just to defend. Silkeborg allowed 12 shots from the penalty box. This is a quite high number and under normal circumstances you would expect the opponent to score at least once if not more with that number of chances. I am not all too impressed by Silkeborg. I only think they have Skov as a real offensive threat and defensively they are decent, but not unbreakable. Brøndby are on a high at the moment. They 
have smashed all opposition until now with their aggressive style of playing. They demolished a hapless Esbjerg side 4-0 in the opener, winning shots on target 12-0. So Brøndby enter in fine form with high morale here. The only concern is the influence of Europa League. Brøndby will play return game against Scottish Hibernian Thursday, and this could have an influence on the match on Sunday in terms of tired players or some kind of rotation.

Silkeborg looked destined for the lower spots, while Brøndby’s performances (and budget) suggest they will be a top 3 team this season. The match against Hibernian could have an influence, but I still think we will see a strong and motivated Brøndby side here. I expected odds below 2.00 for away win, so I will happily take the odds on offer here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.24 at Pinnacle

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 24/7 18.00

FC Nordsjælland played a splendid opening match beating Viborg 4-0 away. It surprised many as FC Nordsjælland were pretty bad last season, but the return of striker Ingvartsen from injury combined with the signing of offensive midfielder Fellah seem to have improved the offensive. Defensively, the young players have had some more time to evolve and it seems to work. I still believe FC Nordsjælland have quite a way to go, but they do seem somewhat stronger than last season. A concern for this match is the injury of left back Pedersen, who has played strongly of late. FC Midtjylland should have won their opener against Randers (2-2), but they failed to finish the game off. Despite their dominance, I was slightly disappointed, as I think they have more potential than they showed. It is a loss that striker Pusic is likely to be out here with an injury as he is the most consistent striker in the squad. A positive thing is the return to great form of winger Pione Sisto. He finally seems to have overcome groin injuries, which allows him to reach a high level. He will be the guy to shut down for FC Nordsjælland. FC Midtjylland will play Europa League next Thursday, but I don’t think they will rotate for it.

FC Nordsjælland have won the last six home games (including cup games) against FC Midtjylland! FC Midtjylland seem to hate playing against FC Nordsjælland on the league’s only artificial pitch. It would be obvious to pick FC Nordsjælland then, but I just don’t think the price is attractive given they face a stronger opponent. Instead, I will pick this out as an over match. Both teams have proven great offensive strength lately and seem a bit stronger in that part of the pitch.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.04 at SBOBet

Randers-AaB

Sunday 24/7 20.00

Randers got an excellent result at FC Midtjylland in the opening round (2-2), but they were super efficient as they scored on the only two shots they had on target. Randers were also limited to only two shots in the penalty box, which is very low. It shows that Randers were not on top offensively, and especially key striker Ishak looked short of form, possibly due to just returning from an injury. Defensively, Randers played okay, but overall I am not too impressed with the quality of the defence. Especially, central defender Agesen seems to be a weak point. AaB had a slightly disappointing start to the season with a 1-1 result against Horsens. AaB dominated in periods, but not as much as you could expect against a promoted club on own turf. AaB have made several changes compared to last season, so it is natural that they need some time – but they also look weaker. I am still uncertain regarding the true quality of this AaB side, but they do not look like a top 3 team.

Two teams that looks significantly weaker than last season. I really find this match difficult to assess, but I think the bookies got it somewhat right as Randers on home turf deserve to be small favourites. Nothing stands out as particularly valuable, but the draw could be a final result that both teams can accept.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Betfair Sportsbook