Esbjerg-AaB

Monday 2/3 19.00

Esbjerg (7th) got a perfect start to the 2015 season with a deserved 3-1 win in Silkeborg. The win was very important since a loss would have sparked relegation talks. Now Esbjerg can focus on making a solid spring just like in the past two seasons. Esbjerg lost three vital players in the winter break (Pusic, Ankersen and Gomes), but that was not visible against Silkeborg, where especially striker Lasse Rise was on fire. Rise has been constantly injured for almost two years, and it was nice to see him in a starting line-up appearance. Due to poor physique he only played 45 minutes but scored two goals in the process. Rise will be a guy to watch if he can stay clear of injuries. Esbjerg will benefit from the return of vital midfielder Magnus Levken from suspension. With him back Esbjerg will have a technically gifted midfield that should be able to set up great offensive opportunities for Rise. Defensively Esbjerg looked vulnerable against Silkeborg, mainly because Esbjerg were very offensive which allowed Silkeborg to counter-attack. AaB (5th) got a late (and not very deserved) win against Brøndby, which was a great result since they ended up being without three profiles: goalkeeper of the year 2014 Nicolai Larsen and midfielders Kasper Risgård and Nicolaj Thomsen. All should return here, and this should improve AaB’s quality remarkably. AaB’s force is typically a strong midfield, why absences in this part of the pitch are problematic. AaB have a tough schedule, since they will play Club Brügge in a match Thursday night (reportedly playing with best eleven), and face Esbjerg again in a cup match next Thursday. AaB will be without the strong central defender Rasmus Thelander who is suspended here.

A fun case since the two teams are meeting each other at the same place just three days later in a cup match. The odds for Esbjerg win are around 2.20 here and 2.40 (Nordicbet) for the cup win. We would surely prefer the latter, also since AaB are likely to be forced to use a B-squad for the cup match. For the league match we are a bit tempted to back AaB, but with the match in Bruges just before, we skip from doing this. Instead we go with our gut feeling and place a bet on goals in this match. Statistics are clearly not in favour of this outcome, but Esbjerg usually plays with great energy at home, while AaB should benefit offensively from the returning players. Keep stakes low though.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: Lekven is doubtful since his wife might give birth. Definately a minus for Esbjerg if he is unable to start, since he gives the midfield a lot. Esbjerg risk being overrun by AaB's strong midfield if he is out. Söder has been sick lately, so he could also be out (will probably start though). Team news not exactly in Esbjerg's favour. 

Week 18 round-up

We are back. We feared this first round of 2015, because it is always difficult to evaluate the teams after a long break. No reason to worry though, we had a brilliant weekend. 5 out of 7 bets were successful and only two goals too much by Lasse Rise (Esbjerg) were the difference between a great weekend and a perfect weekend. We have now recorded 10 weeks in a row with a positive profit! Amazing really, but also a streak that is bound to end. It does not have to be any time soon though.

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Friday 20/2 18.30
FC Nordsjælland (5th) have made several changes over the winter break. They have lost valuable players in Anders Christiansen, Søren Christensen and Kasper Lorentzen, three players who have played a big part in FC Nordsjælland’s success over the recent years. Two Icelandic players (Baldvinsson and Thorarainson) and a Dutch player (Mulder) have replaced them. Although the new players have received nice remarks for their efforts in the pre-season matches, it is undoubtedly a big task to replace three players of such significance. Adding to this, FC Nordsjælland’s star player, the winger Uffe Bech (seven goals in autumn) has not played a part in recent friendlies due to an injury. He is a doubtful for this opening match, and it will surely be a disadvantage if he is absent. Randers (3rd) had a quiet transfer window, where Swedish midfielder Joel Allanson is only new signing. Randers had a fantastic autumn, so it will be difficult for Allanson to find a spot in the starting eleven. For the first match, Randers have some challenges. Central defender Mads Agesen and top goalscorer Mikael Ishak (five goals in autumn) are both suspended. Randers have decent alternatives in Jeppe Tverskov and Nicolaj Brock-Madsen (or even Djiby Fall), so it is not the worst absences. The injury situation of strong right back Johnny Thomsen is more concerning. Thomsen is a major doubt for this match, and Randers would surely miss his offensive raids. Alternatives are sparse, the young and unproven Mikkel Kallesøe or using a left back at the right back seems to be the possibilities.

Both teams have some issues before this match, but FC Nordsjælland seems to have the most challenging starting point. Replacing two central midfielders and a striker is not easy, and some matches might be needed to get the team up to work optimally. Randers also have some absences, but their strong area, the midfield, is complete. This should be a fairly even match, and thus value should be on Randers.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 2.26 at Unibet (put 70.6% on Randers (3.20) and 29.4% on draw (3.40))

Update: Uffe Bech is confirmed out for FC Nordsjælland, while Johnny Thomsen should be back for Randers. Good news for our bet.

Silkeborg-Esbjerg

Saturday 21/2 17.00
Silkeborg (12th) scored eight goals in 17 matches and earned only four points in autumn (no wins!). They have not made important squad changes other than allowing some rotation players to leave. One thing is changed however, and that is the head coach. New head coach is Kim Poulsen who is an experienced guy, but without remarkable results in the Superliga. He has changed the formation to a 4-4-2 and will hope that this can stabilize the defence. Offensively Silkeborg created many chances in autumn, but were just terrible at executing (PDO: 825!). Silkeborg have delivered some disappointing results in the pre-season friendlies, but the last one yielded a 3-0 win against Metalurg Donetsk and Silkeborg will undoubtedly use this win as mental fuel for the upcoming matches. Silkeborg will be without regular defender Jens Martin Gammelby who is suspended. Esbjerg (8th) had a disappointing spring according to their squad quality. However, it is not the same Esbjerg team that arrives to the first match of this season. Gone are two key players, winger Jakob Ankersen (five goals) and league top goalscorer Martin Pusic (nine goals), and not to forget fan favourite defender Eddi Gomes. Esbjerg have signed winger Kevin Mensah in Viborg, central midfielder Erik Friberg in Bologna, striker Daniel Larsson in Granada and Michael Almebäck in Brøndby. All fine players that should be able to play a major part of Esbjerg’s spring, but nevertheless it will be a huge challenge the fill out the vacuum that Ankersen and Pusic left. Esbjerg will probably need a few matches to get the offensive part of their game to work, now that their two most productive players are gone. Strong central midfielder Magnus Lekven is suspended for this match.

Esbjerg are clear favourites here, which is fair given Silkeborg’s horrid autumn and lack of winter improvements. Esbjerg do however need matches to get their new team to work, and they could have a difficult time creating chances against Silkeborg. An under bet is obvious, while a more risky bet on a draw is also interesting.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.90 at Nordicbet
Idea: X – Danske Spil at 3.70

SønderjyskE-Hobro

Sunday 22/2 14.00
SønderjyskE (8th) lost the versatile defender Hallgrimur Jonasson to OB during the transfer window. Jonasson has been an influential player in SønderjyskE for several season so this could be a tough blow. A fellow Icelandic, the midfielder Baldur Sigurdsson, has replaced Jonasson. Sigurdsson is set to play the right back position although he has not tried this before, but reports from the pre-season friendlies indicate that he is mastering the new role fine. Otherwise the team is unchanged. Do not forget that SønderjyskE only lost three out of 17 matches in autumn. They have a solid squad that is very difficult to beat. The offense also looks great with the reports that winger Absalonsen and striker Bechmann are in form (and not struggling with minor injuries as usual). Add to this the great striker Marvin Pourie and you have a team that could advance during the second half of the season. Strong central defender Niels Lodberg is suspended for the match, but Bjørn Paulsen should be a decent replacement. Hobro (7th) took everyone by surprise at the start of the season, but did tend to struggle as the opponents started to respect them. They lost the big striker Emil Berggren to Eintracht Braunschweig, and they are still desperately searching for a replacement. Without a tall striker they will need to change the tactics, and this is a problematic start to the new season. They have made two impressive signings however. Midfielders Mikkel Thygesen and Mikkel Bechmann have arrived. Both have had fine careers, playing for clubs abroad and managing to get caps for Denmark. They are however both more than 30 years old and nearing the end of their respective careers. It will be interesting to see if they will succeed in a club like Hobro were motivation is key. Hobro will be without the talismanic defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg.

SønderjyskE should be a better team than Hobro, although Hobro should never be underestimated. Without Damborg their chances worsen, and with the chaos surrounding the lack of a target man, SønderjyskE should be pretty clear favourites here.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 2.16 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 22/2 17.00
FC Copenhagen (2nd) are eight points behind league leaders FC Midtjylland and it will be difficult to catch them. Especially since FC Copenhagen made no significant signings. Ludwig Augustinsson was bought as direct replacement for the strong left back Pierre Bengtsson who left for Mainz. FC Copenhagen also made two signings from Wolverhampton (Foley and Sigurdarson), but we do not expect them to be a part of the starting eleven. Despite of the lack of new quality players, FC Copenhagen should benefit from an almost fully fit squad. FC Vestsjælland (11th) were more active on the transfer market. Four players that could possible go into the starting line-up was picked up during the transfer window (defender Raitala, midfielders Jonsson and Akharraz and striker Vellios). Especially Vellios has high expectations. The tall Greek striker has Premier League experience and FC Vestsjælland will hope that he can go into a strong partnership with FC Vestsjælland star Rasmus Festersen. The many new signings mean that FC Vestsjælland’s true level is uncertain. To introduce so many new players could easily pose problems, but FC Vestsjælland needed to take a gamble in order to avoid relegation.

Considering that FC Copenhagen only scored 19 goals in 17 matches last season and have not changed much since, the odds for a low scoring match are pretty good. FC Vestsjælland will undoubtedly visit Parken with one sole goal: to defend home a valuable point. We expect a slim home win here.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.15 at Tipico

AaB-Brøndby

Sunday 22/2 19.00
AaB (6th) had a disappointing spring following their championship title. They have been struggling with injuries, but the situation is improving with the return of striker Rasmus Jönsson (although he might not go straight into the starting line-up). The only problematic position is now the left back position, where the first choice Jakob Ahlmann and his back-up Donny Gorter are both injured. The young Jakob Blåbjerg is expected to play this position and he has been decent in his previous appearances. The very quiet transfer window is not necessary a bad thing for AaB who could use the time to optimizing their game instead of integrating new players. AaB are still a part of the Europa League and they will face Club Brügge at home on Thursday. This could be an advantage, since the players will then be fully up to speed for the Sunday match. Brøndby (4th) also had a quiet transfer window mostly focusing on exporting underperforming central defenders (Semb Berge and Almebäck), but they did sign right back Johan Larsson who is, according to reports, a skilled offensive back. Brøndby did not get off to the best start in the pre-season with a 7-0 loss against Hoffenheim. Since they have improved and managed to win a few matches. The pre-season impression is far from convincing nevertheless, and especially the sketchy fitness of Daniel Agger is a concern. Brøndby are very dependent on his appearance in order to maintain stability in a defence that is very offensive minded. Another key player Thomas Kahlenberg is also struggling with his physique and was rested in the last preparation game. Offensively Brøndby did not exactly find the right solution in autumn (21 goals in 17 matches). Brøndby were hoping that the return of Ariel Nuñez to full fitness could improve a rather unimpressive offense, but he is injured and out for the first few matches. Thus, the pressure seems to be solely on team top goalscorer Teemu Pukki (five goals in autumn).

AaB are traditionally a strong home side, while Brøndby have been very poor away (only won once and have lost twice to Hobro). At the same time the situation in AaB look better with a more certain preferred starting line-up and no uncertainty regarding the fitness of key players. AaB look like a strong bet here.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.50 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-OB

Monday 23/2 19.00
FC Midtjylland (1st) showed their new financial strength by buying the league top goalscorer in Esbjerg: Martin Pusic (nine goals). They also bought the Swedish goalkeeper Johan Dahlin to cover one of the weak spots in autumn: the goalkeeping position. In other words, FC Midtjylland look like a complete team and in our opinion clearly the best current side in the league. They have an impressive squad depth so they look like a clear favourite for the league title. The only possible concern is whether the many quality players in the squad could create problems if they are not getting satisfying playing time. FC Midtjylland are likely to be without central defender Erik Sviatchenko and winger Rilwan Hassan for this match, while central midfielder Kristoffer Olsson is a certain absentee. Good players, but the alternatives are just as good. OB (10th) had a horrendous autumn, which resulted in a coaching change before things started to improve. Now the situation looks much better. OB have upgraded their squad in the weakest spots. Two new strikers have been signed: the league top goalscorer of last season Thomas Dalgaard (out injured for some weeks though) and the massive Kenneth Zohore, who might excel with help from OB’s strong wingers. OB have also signed defender Hallgrimur Jonasson, which should help stabilize the defence that has looked shaky at times. The only important departure, right back Espen Ruud, has been replaced by fellow Norwegian Håkon Skogseid who has done well in pre-season matches. Overall, OB are now a much stronger team than in the autumn, but they will get their hands full from the start with an away match against FC Midtjylland. Apart from the injured Thomas Dalgaard the squad appears injury-free.

FC Midtjylland are probably going to win this match, although OB’s improvement could open up for an interesting match. Both clubs are strongest offensively, why the most attractive betting opportunity is a bet for many goals, although odds 1.80 is not spectacular for a game an opening game in February.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.80 at Ladbrokes

Update: Sviatchenko and Hassan both in squad for FC Midtjylland. Central midfielder Spelmann doubtful for OB.