Week 19 Superliga previews

OB-AGF

Friday 26/2 18.00

OB have been abysmal in friendly matches ahead of the season. They have struggled offensively and the defence/goalkeeper have never been particularly good. OB could struggle on the heavy pitches here at the start of the year, especially since the big and physical striker Zohore was sold to Cardiff. OB need to build up the play nicely, and preferably through offensive ace Rasmus Falk. However, Falk missed the last preparation match due to a minor injury, but is expected to be back here. AGF have looked fairly good in the friendly matches. The addition of Duncan in attack and Backman at the back has provided some quality in key positions. Furthermore, they are brimming with confidence after the arrival of new head coach Glen Riddersholm. AGF are not as reliant on creative offensive players to succeed offensively, so the winter pitches should not be as big an issue for them.

I see this match as fairly even. Yes, OB have the home advantage, but AGF have momentum and a style of play that is more suiting for this time of the year. Therefore I believe a good bet is the away side to bring home three points.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.40 at Unibet

Randers-SønderjyskE

Saturday 27/2 16.00

Randers have been looking fine in friendly matches. They have crushed some of the better teams in the Danish 1st Division. They seem to have taken benefit from maintaining stability during the winter break and not making any changes of importance. Randers have a solid and physically strong team. They lacked some confidence in front at the end of 2015, but with the recent signing of Niger international Maazou, the new competition should increase the attacking quality. I don’t expect Maazou to start yet as he has just arrived, but he will put pressure on Lundberg and Ishak. SønderjyskE are the same old. No spectacular signings and decent performances in friendly matches. They are reportedly in great shape physically, which is no surprise as SønderjyskE rely on a high work rate and a very clear strategy: defend and counter. That is also why they are often better away than at home – they don’t like taking charge of matches.

The last five H2H’s have ended under 2.5 goals and four of them have ended in draws. A cautious match between two well-organised teams is to be expected. Randers are the better side and their performances in the friendly matches have been impressive, but SønderjyskE are very difficult to break down. For me, this is a clear no bet match in order to see the strength of the sides, but if forced I would go with the away side.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.95 at Bet365

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 28/2 13.00

Viborg played a strong autumn, where they managed to earn far more points than expected, mainly due to a strong defence. Viborg have done okay in the pre-season friendlies, but they have suffered from a lack of stability in the central defence. Every player in the central defence has been bothered by injuries in the preparation, and the strong Veldmate is set to miss the match. This is clearly not ideal. Viborg could also be without their offensive ace Serge Deble, who missed the last friendly. FC Nordsjælland lost their best player in autumn, Bruninho. He scored the half of FC Nordsjælland’s goals and no direct replacement has been signed, which will cause problems. FC Nordsjælland have signed winger Tobias Mikkelsen who will be a valuable asset, but FC Nordsjælland seem to have all the quality on the wings. They surely lack some force in the centre of the pitch. FC Nordsjælland will be without left back Mtiliga who is injured and central midfielder Vingaard who is banned.

Both teams are suffering from absences here. FC Nordsjælland are clearly the better side technically, but Viborg are better when it comes to physique, and this is probably what this match is about on a heavy February pitch. I pick the home side here, although I would need a bigger price to make it a recommendation.

Idea: 1 – 2.40 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg

Sunday 28/2 16.00

FC Copenhagen have lost the strong defensive midfielder Amartey who signed for Leicester, but they still look very strong. They have so much quality to pick from on every position and they have not been plagued by injuries in their preparation matches (where they also been very strong). The only problematic thing is their inability to find the net. They have been strong in shutting down opponents, but not good enough at creating something offensively. It will be interesting to see if they can start doing that, as I believe they clearly have the potential to be even more dominant. Esbjerg have made a ton of changes during the winter break, mostly for the better. However, the many new arrivals probably need some time to adapt. Esbjerg will change at least four positions at the back (three defenders and goalkeeper) and they have focused a lot on making the defence solid in the friendlies. They have surely come along way, but the will face a big test here.

I hold FC Copenhagen as the big favourite to win the league, and I don’t expect them to fail in a match like this. Esbjerg have some positive things going on, but this test comes too soon. They will try to protect the goal for as long time as possible and hope for a rare chance to attack, although they lack the pace to go for counter attacks. A low-scoring match could be the case.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.50 at Bet25

Idea: Esbjerg to score 0 goals – 2.05 at Danske Spil

Brøndby-Hobro

Sunday 28/2 18.00

Brøndby have made some signings to improve their attack, but an injury have left them vulnerable at the back. Central defender Albrechtsen is injured for a longer period and the obvious alternative Dumic have signed for NEC Nijmegen. This forces Brøndby to use a midfielder or a left back in the central defence. Offensively, we have to wait and see whether the new signing, striker Wilczek, can be the player that Brøndby need to boost the attack. Hobro have made one key signing: the new head coach Ove Pedersen. He is a master of getting a lot out of limited material and he has had a long winter break to prepare for the season. Hobro have made some decent new signings, but it still looks like a mission impossible to survive. They have some offensive quality, so they should be able to threaten every opponent, but the question is whether the defence can weather the storms.

This is a must-win match for Brøndby. However, it might not be an easy one to win. Looking over the last two seasons, Brøndby have met Hobro four times, every time as big favourite, and lost all four with a total of 0-8. Hobro are clearly a bad match for Brøndby and although there is no doubt that Brøndby are the far better side, Hobro have a realistic chance of getting something here, especially given Brøndby’s defensive struggles.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 6.40 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-AaB

Monday 29/2 19.00

FC Midtjylland made the headlines last Thursday when they beat a hopeless Manchester United side with 2-1. The match was a very positive signal for the upcoming season. I have my doubts when it comes to FC Midtjylland as they have lost two influential players in the winter break, Sviatchenko and Duncan, but maybe the new signings can fill the gap combined with the return of some players to full fitness (Sisto, Hassan and captain Bach Bak). FC Midtjylland will play a return match against Manchester United on Thursday, and the match practice should be a clear advantage from AaB who have not faced a real test since December. AaB ended the season flying. AaB had a spectacular offensive game that was fuelled by confident players. Question is whether they can bring this confidence to the new season. They have managed to keep almost every player despite a lot of interest from abroad, so they should be able to field the same team as in autumn with the skilled right back Dalsgaard (signed for Zulte-Waregem) as the only absence. AaB have scored a lot of goals in the friendlies, but also conceded a lot and this could be an issue in the spring.

FC Midtjylland have the advantage of being at full speed already, while AaB risk being off the pace. At the same time, I am not convinced that AaB are strong enough defensively to contain the offensive players of FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland have won the last three H2H’s and this one also looks like a home win. I think the price is fairly good and I pick it as the Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.00 at Bet365

UPDATE: FC Midtjylland played a poor return match against FC Midtjylland (lost 5-1), where they look much less convincing. At the same time, AaB played a great final prepration match where they beat Malmø 3-0. With this "new information", the pick seems less strong, although I would say it is still around value.