Week 19 round-up with Superliga prediction

We are off. Our picks did not result in the optimal results as our recommendations netted a loss of 1 unit in total. We had some good spots, so something must be right. Here is a listing of our recommendations and the closing odds (all taken from Bet365):

OB-AGF 2 (+0)

Our pick: 2.40

Closing odds: 2.02

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg 1

Our pick: 1.50

Closing odds: 1.40

Brøndby-Hobro 2 (+0)

Our pick: 6.40

Closing odds: 6.10

FC Midtjylland-AaB 1 (–0.25)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 2.10

The last pick ended in a bad odds movement. The pick was made before FC Midtjylland played a poor away game against Manchester United, while AaB looked very strong in the last friendly – that information gain shifted some value towards AaB and against our bet, which is always a risk with an early pick. On a side note, the idea picks also experienced odds drop, so overall a good start in terms of spots.

We hope some at least followed our pick from Twitter, where we spotted the value in Emre Mor as goalscorer at odds 6.50. We did not mark it as a #Twitbet so we won’t include in the betting stats here.

Emre Mor is starting as striker for FC Nordsjælland today, unexpected choice. Opens up for a good goalscorer pick. 6.50 at Bet365.#vfffcn

— SuperligaBets (@SuperligaBets) February 28, 2016

Here are the updated betting stats:

Finally, here is a prediction of the expected points for each team after this round, using our model as explained in our season preview. FC Copenhagen only improve their chances of gaining the title after the win against Esbjerg, while the draw between FC Midtjylland and AaB was great news for the capital side.

Week 19 Superliga previews

OB-AGF

Friday 26/2 18.00

OB have been abysmal in friendly matches ahead of the season. They have struggled offensively and the defence/goalkeeper have never been particularly good. OB could struggle on the heavy pitches here at the start of the year, especially since the big and physical striker Zohore was sold to Cardiff. OB need to build up the play nicely, and preferably through offensive ace Rasmus Falk. However, Falk missed the last preparation match due to a minor injury, but is expected to be back here. AGF have looked fairly good in the friendly matches. The addition of Duncan in attack and Backman at the back has provided some quality in key positions. Furthermore, they are brimming with confidence after the arrival of new head coach Glen Riddersholm. AGF are not as reliant on creative offensive players to succeed offensively, so the winter pitches should not be as big an issue for them.

I see this match as fairly even. Yes, OB have the home advantage, but AGF have momentum and a style of play that is more suiting for this time of the year. Therefore I believe a good bet is the away side to bring home three points.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.40 at Unibet

Randers-SønderjyskE

Saturday 27/2 16.00

Randers have been looking fine in friendly matches. They have crushed some of the better teams in the Danish 1st Division. They seem to have taken benefit from maintaining stability during the winter break and not making any changes of importance. Randers have a solid and physically strong team. They lacked some confidence in front at the end of 2015, but with the recent signing of Niger international Maazou, the new competition should increase the attacking quality. I don’t expect Maazou to start yet as he has just arrived, but he will put pressure on Lundberg and Ishak. SønderjyskE are the same old. No spectacular signings and decent performances in friendly matches. They are reportedly in great shape physically, which is no surprise as SønderjyskE rely on a high work rate and a very clear strategy: defend and counter. That is also why they are often better away than at home – they don’t like taking charge of matches.

The last five H2H’s have ended under 2.5 goals and four of them have ended in draws. A cautious match between two well-organised teams is to be expected. Randers are the better side and their performances in the friendly matches have been impressive, but SønderjyskE are very difficult to break down. For me, this is a clear no bet match in order to see the strength of the sides, but if forced I would go with the away side.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.95 at Bet365

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 28/2 13.00

Viborg played a strong autumn, where they managed to earn far more points than expected, mainly due to a strong defence. Viborg have done okay in the pre-season friendlies, but they have suffered from a lack of stability in the central defence. Every player in the central defence has been bothered by injuries in the preparation, and the strong Veldmate is set to miss the match. This is clearly not ideal. Viborg could also be without their offensive ace Serge Deble, who missed the last friendly. FC Nordsjælland lost their best player in autumn, Bruninho. He scored the half of FC Nordsjælland’s goals and no direct replacement has been signed, which will cause problems. FC Nordsjælland have signed winger Tobias Mikkelsen who will be a valuable asset, but FC Nordsjælland seem to have all the quality on the wings. They surely lack some force in the centre of the pitch. FC Nordsjælland will be without left back Mtiliga who is injured and central midfielder Vingaard who is banned.

Both teams are suffering from absences here. FC Nordsjælland are clearly the better side technically, but Viborg are better when it comes to physique, and this is probably what this match is about on a heavy February pitch. I pick the home side here, although I would need a bigger price to make it a recommendation.

Idea: 1 – 2.40 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg

Sunday 28/2 16.00

FC Copenhagen have lost the strong defensive midfielder Amartey who signed for Leicester, but they still look very strong. They have so much quality to pick from on every position and they have not been plagued by injuries in their preparation matches (where they also been very strong). The only problematic thing is their inability to find the net. They have been strong in shutting down opponents, but not good enough at creating something offensively. It will be interesting to see if they can start doing that, as I believe they clearly have the potential to be even more dominant. Esbjerg have made a ton of changes during the winter break, mostly for the better. However, the many new arrivals probably need some time to adapt. Esbjerg will change at least four positions at the back (three defenders and goalkeeper) and they have focused a lot on making the defence solid in the friendlies. They have surely come along way, but the will face a big test here.

I hold FC Copenhagen as the big favourite to win the league, and I don’t expect them to fail in a match like this. Esbjerg have some positive things going on, but this test comes too soon. They will try to protect the goal for as long time as possible and hope for a rare chance to attack, although they lack the pace to go for counter attacks. A low-scoring match could be the case.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.50 at Bet25

Idea: Esbjerg to score 0 goals – 2.05 at Danske Spil

Brøndby-Hobro

Sunday 28/2 18.00

Brøndby have made some signings to improve their attack, but an injury have left them vulnerable at the back. Central defender Albrechtsen is injured for a longer period and the obvious alternative Dumic have signed for NEC Nijmegen. This forces Brøndby to use a midfielder or a left back in the central defence. Offensively, we have to wait and see whether the new signing, striker Wilczek, can be the player that Brøndby need to boost the attack. Hobro have made one key signing: the new head coach Ove Pedersen. He is a master of getting a lot out of limited material and he has had a long winter break to prepare for the season. Hobro have made some decent new signings, but it still looks like a mission impossible to survive. They have some offensive quality, so they should be able to threaten every opponent, but the question is whether the defence can weather the storms.

This is a must-win match for Brøndby. However, it might not be an easy one to win. Looking over the last two seasons, Brøndby have met Hobro four times, every time as big favourite, and lost all four with a total of 0-8. Hobro are clearly a bad match for Brøndby and although there is no doubt that Brøndby are the far better side, Hobro have a realistic chance of getting something here, especially given Brøndby’s defensive struggles.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 6.40 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-AaB

Monday 29/2 19.00

FC Midtjylland made the headlines last Thursday when they beat a hopeless Manchester United side with 2-1. The match was a very positive signal for the upcoming season. I have my doubts when it comes to FC Midtjylland as they have lost two influential players in the winter break, Sviatchenko and Duncan, but maybe the new signings can fill the gap combined with the return of some players to full fitness (Sisto, Hassan and captain Bach Bak). FC Midtjylland will play a return match against Manchester United on Thursday, and the match practice should be a clear advantage from AaB who have not faced a real test since December. AaB ended the season flying. AaB had a spectacular offensive game that was fuelled by confident players. Question is whether they can bring this confidence to the new season. They have managed to keep almost every player despite a lot of interest from abroad, so they should be able to field the same team as in autumn with the skilled right back Dalsgaard (signed for Zulte-Waregem) as the only absence. AaB have scored a lot of goals in the friendlies, but also conceded a lot and this could be an issue in the spring.

FC Midtjylland have the advantage of being at full speed already, while AaB risk being off the pace. At the same time, I am not convinced that AaB are strong enough defensively to contain the offensive players of FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland have won the last three H2H’s and this one also looks like a home win. I think the price is fairly good and I pick it as the Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.00 at Bet365

UPDATE: FC Midtjylland played a poor return match against FC Midtjylland (lost 5-1), where they look much less convincing. At the same time, AaB played a great final prepration match where they beat Malmø 3-0. With this "new information", the pick seems less strong, although I would say it is still around value.

Preview of Superliga 2015/2016 (spring season)

With only two weeks left until the Danish Superliga kicks off again, it is time to look ahead. I have gone through every team and the most important winter changes. I have also added some stats from the first part of the season. For a description of the stats:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:

TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:

SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. It is often seen as a measure of how lucky/unlucky a team has been, although the better teams seem to overperform in terms of PDO. PDO is defined as:

PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

Winter changes club-by-club

FC Copenhagen

Current Position: 1

Points: 35 (plus one match not played yet)

SoTR: 60.0% (1st)

PDO: 1148 (1st)

Key signings:

·            Erik Johansson (Gent) – central defender

·            Robin Olsen (PAOK) - goalkeeper

Key departures:

·            Daniel Amartey (Leicester) – central midfielder

FC Copenhagen sold one of the biggest profiles, midfield powerhouse Daniel Amartey, but they received an offer they simply could not refuse. FC Copenhagen have a decent midfield alternative in William Kvist, an experienced Denmark international, but Amartey’s departure is surely a loss. In the central defence, Johansson is a good signing and he could go straight into the line-up. Olsen is signed on loan as a quality replacement for Stephan Andersen who suffered a serious injury in January. FC Copenhagen have an impressive squad depth and without many changes during the winter break, they are clear favourites to win this season. They have also looked strong in friendlies until now.

AaB

Current position: 2

Points: 34

SoTR: 54.9% (4th)

PDO: 1098 (2nd)

Key signings:

·            None

Key departures:

·            Henrik Dalsgaard (Zulte Waregem) – right back

AaB played terrific football during the final part of 2015, which led to huge interest for the most talented players. Due to the unexpected possibility to challenge for the title, AaB have kept the best players. They were forced to let Dalsgaard go as his contract expired. This is undoubtedly a big loss since Dalsgaard was the best right back in the league with his powerful forward runs. The likely replacement Patrick Kristensen is a versatile and experienced player, but lacks the offensive qualities of Dalsgaard. AaB still have an offensively great team, but they will face problems if injuries occur.

FC Midtjylland

Current position: 3

Points: 31 (plus one match not played yet)

SoTR: 58.4% (4th)

PDO: 1087 (3rd)

Key signings:

·            Vaclav Kadlec (Frankfurt) – striker/winger

·            Harmeet Singh (Molde) – central midfielder

·            Nikolay Bodurov (Fulham) – central defender

Key departures:

·            Erik Sviatchenko (Celtic) – central defender

·            Morten Duncan Rasmussen (AGF) – striker

FC Midtjylland have made a number of changes during the winter. The ones above are only the most important – they have also signed a number of foreign youngsters, while a number of mainly back-up Danish players have left. In total, FC Midtjylland have a very international squad, which undoubtedly have a lot of quality. However, it is a clear concern that selling two of the most charismatic and influential players in Sviatchenko and Duncan could hurt them in the short run. Especially Sviatchenko will be difficult to replace. However, captain Kristian Bach Bak is set to finally return after the autumn was hampered by injury. Kadlec is probably the most impressive signing. The Czech player is looking to revive his career in FC Midtjylland and should be a key player in the league. FC Midtjylland are set to be without their creative midfield force Petter Andersson for the spring season, which is a set back, but new-signing Singh could be a fine replacement. FC Midtjylland start the year with Europa League matches against Manchester United, which could be beneficial for the start of the spring season.

SønderjyskE

Current position: 4

Points: 31

SoTR: 52,3% (6th)

PDO: 1077 (4th)

Key signings:

·            Marcel Rømer (Viborg) – central midfielder

·            Simon Kroon (Malmø FF) - winger

Key departures:

·            Baldur Sigurdsson (Stjarnan) – versatile defensive player

SønderjyskE were one of the big surprises in autumn. They succeeded in a defensive approach with focus on counter-attacking. This also explains why they earn more points away from home. SønderjyskE have not changed much during the winter break. They have bolstered the midfield with the signings of Rømer and Kroon, both fine players, but they are not going to set the league on fire. Only departure of some relevance is Sigurdsson who was mostly used as a cover player in case of injuries. Overall, SønderjyskE look to be around the same level as last year and they will do their utmost to stay in the top half.

Brøndby

Current position: 5

Points: 29

SoTR: 54.3% (5th)

PDO: 1034 (5th)

Key signings:

·            Kamil Wilczek (Carpi) – striker

·            David Boysen (Lyngby) - winger

Key departures:

·            Ronnie Schwartz (Brøndby) – striker

·            Elbasan Rashani (Rosenborg) – winger

·            Dario Dumic (NEC Nijmegen) – central defender

Don’t put too much into the Brøndby departures. All were rotation players that did not quite impress, the reason why they have now left the club. The new signings are not the most impressive either. It is true that David Boysen is the current Danish 1st Division top goalscorer, but he has already had his chance at the best level in Viborg and failed to succeed. Now at a much bigger club, it looks difficult for him. However, he should give Brøndby an extra option on the wings, where they look weak. The other signing Wilczek is quite a dark horse. He was the top goalscorer in the Polish Extraklasa last season, but his summer move to Carpi only resulted in sitting on the bench. It will be interesting to see if he can be the real quality striker that Brøndby have lacked.

UPDATE: Central defender Martin Albrechtsen picked up a serious hand injury and is out for some months. Bad news for Brøndby as they just sold the alternative Dumic. This means that Brøndby have to use a young unproven player or a player out of position - clearly not ideal.

Randers

Current position: 6

Points: 27

SoTR: 49.4% (7th)

PDO: 1022 (6th)

Key signings:

·            None

Key departures:

·            None

Nothing really important has happened at Randers, perhaps due to some turmoil off the pitch, where a club takeover and also a change of sporting director were rumoured. However, the lack of changes is not necessarily bad. Randers will be able to focus even more on strengthening their solid organisation. Randers have looked good in preparation matches and managed to get a draw against a very Shakhtar Donetsk team.

Update: Randers have announced the signing of Moussa Maazou, a big powerful striker who could give Randers some extra power in the frontline when he adapts to the new club and country.

OB

Current position: 7

Points: 24

SoTR: 45.5% (10th)

PDO: 997 (7th)

Key signings:

·            Izunna Uzochukwu (Amkar Perm) – central midfielder

·            Joan Simun Edmundsson (Vejle) – offensive midfielder

Key departures:

·            Emil Larsen (Columbus Crew) – winger

·            Kenneth Zohore (Cardiff) – striker

The biggest winter news in OB is the departure of star player Rasmus Falk to FC Copenhagen. However, this move will not happen until summer, so Falk has some months to end his long stint in OB in a good way. It will be interesting to see if he is able to perform well, as many OB fans are far from satisfied with Falk’s decision. OB are very dependent on Falk’s offensive skills, so his motivation is important. OB have made two nice signings. Izunna is a very skilled defensive midfielder who is an excellent ball winner, while Edmundsson was a key offensive player in Vejle. OB lose two players that on paper look important, but in reality they should be able to cope. Emil Larsen has not delivered in a long time, while Zohore did have some good matches, but Anders K. Jacobsen is an excellent alternative. OB have not upgraded the backline although it was far from impressive in autumn.

FC Nordsjælland

Current position: 8

Points: 22

SoTR: 47.3% (9th)

PDO: 912 (11th)

Key signings:

·            Tobias Mikkelsen (Rosenborg) - winger

Key departures:

·            Bruninho (Guangzhou) - striker

FC Nordsjælland have lost their most vital player in Bruninho. He scored 9 goals in autumn, which was half the total goal tally of FC Nordsjælland. FC Nordsjælland have not signed a replacement so young Ingvartsen is likely to be on pressure to succeed as the lone striker. On the plus side is the new head coach, Kasper Hjulmand, who directed FC Nordsjælland to their first ever championship title. He is back from an unsuccessful stay in Mainz, but in Danish standards he is a big capacity. Furthermore, he has managed to sign one of his former profiles in winger Tobias Mikkelsen. After some successful years in Norway, he is expected to be a fine addition to FC Nordsjælland. Captain and left back Patrick Mtiliga has picked up an injury that will keep him out for the start of the season, which means that FC Nordsjælland will lack some experience and field a very young team. Look out for young offensive player Emre Mor who is expected to breakthrough to the senior level.

AGF

Current position: 9

Points: 21

SoTR: 55.3% (3rd)

PDO: 835 (12th)

Key signings:

·            Nicklas Backman (Dalian Aerbin) – central defender

·            Morten Duncan Rasmussen (FC Midtjylland) - striker

Key departures:

·            Ahmed Yasin (AIK) – winger

AGF go into the season with loads of optimism. There are many reasons for this, but the main reason is a new head coach. Glen Riddersholm, who won the Superliga with FC Midtjylland last season, is now in charge and he brings a lot of optimism and passion. Add to this that AGF have made two quality signings. Backman looks like an important upgrade of a mediocre backline, while Duncan is a local hero and a real goalgetter. These two signings improve AGF remarkably. Yasin has left the club, but he was nothing more than a rotation player. The performances during the preparation friendlies also signal that AGF could face a fine spring, although friendlies should be interpreted with caution.

Viborg

Current position: 10

Points: 21

SoTR: 47.5% (8th)

PDO: 913 (10th)

Key signings:

·            Mikkel Vestergaard (Esbjerg) – striker/winger

·            George Fochive (Portland Timbers) – central midfielder

·            Søren Frederiksen (KR Reykjavik) - back

Key departures:

·            Christian Sivebæk (Vejle) – winger

·            Marcel Rømer (SønderjyskE) – central midfielder

Viborg have made some changes, but they are not spectacular. Vestergaard and Frederiksen are both fine players, but were nothing more than rotation players in their past Superliga appearances. American Fochive has received a lot of praise after a trial, but he mostly looks like a gamble. Viborg have lost Sivebæk, rotation player, and Rømer who lost his position as starter during the autumn. In total, Viborg look to be around same quality as in autumn.

Esbjerg

Current position: 11

Points: 15

SoTR: 44.6% (11th)

PDO: 926 (9th)

Key signings:

·            Andreas Nordvik (Sarpsborg) – central defender

·            Ronnie Schwartz (Brøndby) – striker

·            Jeppe Højbjerg (Fredericia) – goalkeeper

·            Jesper Jørgensen (Zulte Waregem) – central midfielder

·            Jesper Lauridsen (FC Midtjylland) – left back

·            Nikolaj Hagelskjær (Fredericia) – right back

Key departures:

·            Nicki Bille Nielsen (Lech Poznan) – striker

·            Hans Henrik Andreasen (Hobro) – central midfielder

After an abysmal autumn, Esbjerg have really invested heavily ahead of the spring season. Especially the defence has been bad, and Esbjerg could field a totally new backline and goalkeeper in 2016. Young prominent keeper Højbjerg has been recalled from loan and is expected to start. Nordvik is signed to bolster defence and will start if he recovers from injury in time. Lauridsen is a solid signing for the left back, while Hagelskjær is a fine back-up if Laursen should continue to struggle with injury. Furthermore, the signing of local Jesper Jørgensen could improve Esbjerg’s central midfield. Schwartz has been signed as replacement for Nicki Bille who never adapted to the life in Esbjerg. In total, Esbjerg look much more convincing than in autumn, although the many changes could give problems at first.

Hobro

Current position: 12

Points: 10

SoTR: 33.5% (12th)

PDO: 978 (8th)

Key signings:

·            Babajide Ogunbiye (Hobro) – central defender

·            Hans Henrik Andreasen (Esbjerg) – central midfielder

·            Michael Christensen (Start Kristiansand) – central defender

·            Wilfried Domoraud (free transfer) - winger

Key departures:

·            Adama Tamboura (free transfer) – left back

Hobro have mostly upgraded ahead of the spring. They have to give it a shot, although the chances look poor. One reason for optimism is the new head coach Ove Pedersen who is a veteran head coach with a history of making remarkable results, especially for the smaller clubs. He has made some signings, mainly for the defensive part. He has focused physique, which he will get with the signings of Ogunbiye and Andreasen. Offensively, Hobro actually have some fine players in George, Kirkevold and Park, so maybe Pedersen can find the right recipe which will see Hobro rebound after a concerning autumn. However, in general the gap seems too big compared to the overall squad quality.

Modelling the rest of the season

Based on historical data I have made a model to analyse the probability of match outcomes. The model uses SoTR and PDO as input factors (PDO as scoring percentage and saving percentage). Based on my own subjective evaluation of team strength, I have put some numbers into the model in order to simulate the remaining matches in the season. You can see the numbers below.

In the title fight I expect FC Copenhagen to be even more dominant in terms of SoTR, while I expect the departure of key players to be costly for FC Midtjylland, why I have lowered their expected SoTR. I expect AaB to be around same level as in autumn, although the loss of Dalsgaard could have a cost.

In the mid-table, I don’t expect AGF and SønderjyskE to keep up some quite high SoTR percentages from the autumn. AGF for instance are set to change their style of play, why I expect them to take fewer shots from the distance, which will have a cost on the SoTR but a reward in terms of scoring percentage. I think SønderjyskE overperformed in autumn, and I think the assigned SoTR is still quite impressive for a team of SønderjyskE’s size.

In the bottom, I expect Esbjerg and Hobro to be significantly more dominant. Both have made winter signings that should improve their quality.

Simulation

Below you find the simulation. As you can see the model suggests that FC Copenhagen will take a quite secure title victory, while the race for 2nd is set to be very tight. I predict a good spring for Brøndby, partially due to an easy schedule, and they are set to earn just around as many points per game in the spring as FC Midtjylland. In the bottom half, I still expect Hobro to earn the fewest points, and while I predict that they will earn more points per game in the spring, the gap to the teams ahead will be too big to bridge.

If you find this interesting and would like to see what the model predicts with your own input (SoTR, scoring and saving percentages), then feel free to send me an email at superligabets@gmail.com.

Season bets

Some fine season bets come to mind:

FC Copenhagen to win the league – 1.55 at Cashpoint

FC Copenhagen are already in pole position in the league with one match in spare. They are the strongest team and have the most impressive squad depth. For value of this pick, 65% chance of success is needed, and I am willing to give them around 70%.

AaB to finish in top 3 – 1.85 at Bet25 (Unibet with 1.80 – also fine value)

AaB had a nice winter window. They only lost Dalsgaard, but were able to keep the rest despite of some serious interest for players like Spalvis and Thomsen. If AaB can avoid injuries for key players, I find it difficult to see how they will lose out on a podium finish. Nearest probable rival for a top 3 position is Brøndby and they already have a 5 point lead. And I don’t think Brøndby have a stronger team.

AGF to finish ahead of FC Nordsjælland – 2.05 at Tipico

AGF are one point behind FC Nordsjælland and although they have a slightly more difficult remaining schedule, they also made significant upgrades in the winter break with Duncan and Backman plus a new quality head coach. FC Nordsjælland have sold their best player, Bruninho, who scored half their goals in autumn and captain Mtiliga just picked up an injury. I see AGF as a stronger team ahead of the spring. An alternative is OB to beat FC Nordsjælland at 1.70 at the same place.