Esbjerg-AaB
Friday 4/11 18.00
Esbjerg are looking very fragile at the
moment. They played a decent first half in the last round, but then lost 5-0 in
second half to AGF. The loss was mostly due to stupid defensive mistakes,
including two big mistakes by the goalkeeper. Head coach has reacted by
benching goalkeeper Højbjerg for Jonas Jensen. Jensen has limited experience
for this level, so it will be interesting to see if he will improve the
defensive stability. Esbjerg is also set to bench central defender Nordvik, who
I believe to be one of the better defenders in the squad, while central
midfielder Jørgensen is set to replace Nielsen. I don’t like the outlook of
Esbjerg’s likely central midfield with Jørgensen and Palsson, as I see them as
too similar and not complementing each other. Esbjerg also got hammered the
last time the two got the chance in the central midfield (3-1 at FC
Nordsjælland). Offensively, Esbjerg will find some optimism in seeing main
striker Hvilsom scoring in the last round, while winger Mabil is looking like a
great weapon on the flanks. AaB have been playing some decent matches recently,
but they have been rather unlucky and inefficient. They lack a good finisher
and they will hope that the returning Enevoldsen could be the solution. Enevoldsen
was quite dangerous last season, but has not been at his best this season, and
he probably won’t be at his best here either. Other striker alternative Pohl is
injured and the same is the case for regular winger Meilinger. However, he is
likely to be replaced by Flores who returns from injury. Overall, AaB look
decent in the defensive parts, but perhaps lack some quality and consistency in
the offensive positions.
Esbjerg are low on confidence and making
several changes for this match – some which I don’t like. AaB have some
offensive issues, although the form is looking okay despite the lack of points
recently. I just can’t see how things should turn out well for Esbjerg with the
expected changes. I would cautiously back AaB if anything here.
Idea:
2 (AH -0.25) – 1.66 at SBOBet
AGF-Silkeborg
Friday 4/11 20.15
AGF found confidence in a 6-2 win against a
terrible Esbjerg side. It was AGF’s first league win in seven games, so they
are not exactly in top form, but maybe the big win can mark a turning point. I
don’t think they were particularly good against Esbjerg (see xG map on
Twitter). They were just efficient combined with Esbjerg practically giving
away goals through major mistakes. AGF have some defensive issues, they are
giving away too many chances – and conceding way too easily due to poor
keeping. AGF will hope that key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen will return to
action here, he was on the bench in the entire last match, and my guess is that
he will not be ready for full-time action just yet. Silkeborg started the
season terrible, but have really got into form. They have just lost one of the
last eight matches (against FC Copenhagen away so that is fair). They were a
bit stronger than OB in last weekend’s match but failed to capitalize (1-1).
Silkeborg have a good squad situation and they are able to consistently field
the same line-up. They also have some offensive players in good form and the
defence is starting to look stronger, although this is a clear weak point.
AGF are a bit stronger in my eyes, but
Silkeborg are very consistent at the moment. I can’t see why a team winning
once in seven matches versus a team that have only lost one match in the last
eight matches deserve to be more than 50% favourites. I actually believe this
to be value down to 1.85, so enough value to be the Tip of the Week. Whether
Morten Duncan Rasmussen is fit to play can move the percentages a bit, but in
any case good value in Silkeborg to take points here.
Tip
of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.08 at SBOBet
Randers-FC
Nordsjælland
Saturday 5/11 16.00
I think Randers are looking fairly solid at
the moment. They have only conceded once in the last three games and their
front line is one of the most dangerous in the league with two great strikers
in Ishak and Pourie. Randers like to play physical matches, so the heavy
pitches of this time of the year should favour them. Randers are ranked 4th in
the league (behind the “big 3”) based on shots on target ratio, and I think
this it is a fair valuation of their current strength. No important absences
expected. FC Nordsjælland are a team with several technically gifted players.
They tend to be significantly weaker away from home (artificial pitch) and a
heavy pitch should not favour their style of play. They are team that also
could struggle against a physical opponent, so this is not a good match-up on
paper. FC Nordsjælland have been in decent form in the league recently, but
they underperformed a bit in the weekend despite winning, while they were
knocked out by a 2nd tier club in the cup this Wednesday. This was very
disappointing as FC Nordsjælland fielded close to the strongest team, but it
also comes to prove that FC Nordsjælland away from home at this time of the
year is not the best. They do however have a good squad situation with some
regulars starting to come back to full fitness (Petry and Mtiliga), while
striker Ingvartsen has had a really good period.
Randers have beaten FC Nordsjælland in the
last three home matches with a total score of 6-0. It is a match that really
favours Randers, as it is expected to be cold and rain all day Saturday.
Furthermore, I see FC Nordsjælland midweek defeat in the cup as a negative
influence that could affect the young team negatively. Value down to 1.80.
Recommendation:
1 – 1.90 at Unibet
OB-Lyngby
Sunday 6/11 12.00
OB are on a terrible run. They were
expected to be a top 6 team, but they have only won once in the last ten
matches. Sure, they had some unlucky matches at the start of the season, but
since they have not played particularly well. They got one point last weekend
and they will hope to make that a turning point. The squad situation is also
improving with OB having both of their important strikers, Jacobsen and
Festersen, back from injuries. For this match, central midfielder Makrini
returns from ban and he is an important player for the balance of the team. I
think OB have potential, but it is just a matter of making it work well. I have
them as the unluckiest team in the league, but this is mainly due to their
unlucky start to the season – since they have started to perform poorly in
general. Lyngby got down to earth after a deserved 2-0 loss to Randers. I don’t
think the performance was so bad from Lyngby, but their luck just ran out. I
have claimed them to be luckiest side in some time, but I actually think that
they have started to improve their chance production and not just taking points
through luck.
Lyngby are 13 points ahead of OB in the
table. In reality, they should be way more even. I think OB will improve in the
games ahead of us, but I don’t think it is enough to make them 42% favourite
against a confident Lyngby-side.
Idea:
2 (AH +0.25) – 1.91 at Unibet
Horsens-FC
Midtjylland
Sunday 6/11 14.00
Horsens were beaten by SønderjyskE in the
last round, but they actually did better than I expected. I don’t think they
were particularly worse than SønderjyskE, but they just failed to score on
their big chances. This match looks a bit difficult for the promoted side. They
have defensive issues as strong central defender Henry left the last match with
a serious injury. Captain Nielsen who has played in the central midfield
recently is the usual back-up for the central defence, but he is banned here.
This means that Horsens will probably have to use someone unfamiliar to the
position or a player completely out of form (Berthelsen). This is particularly
concerning as it has been Horsens defensive foundation that have been essential
in their excellent season so far. However, I want to add that Horsens have been
quite lucky in many matches this season and I expect them to lose more matches
in the rest of the season. FC Midtjylland are very instable. I also think they
are poorly coached, and they lack consistency in the players selected. However,
they have the second best squad in the league, so they do win most of their
matches anyway. Their performance has been enough to rank them 3rd in the table
and in my stats ranking. They have quality players all over the pitch and a
good squad depth, so despite of injuries for Wikheim and Bruninho they should
be able to line-up strongly.
Horsens have some concerning defensive
absences here. I think they will find it difficult to get something from this.
FC Midtjylland should win this, but they are often their own worst enemy. Price
is too low for a recommendation.
Idea:
2 – 1.70 at Tipico
Viborg-Brøndby
Sunday 6/11 16.00
Viborg are in poor form. They have lost the
last three league matches and just got knocked out of the cup on Wednesday
after losing to a 2nd tier club after fielding the strongest line-up. Viborg
will try to find some confidence in the fact that Brøndby are actually the last
team they beat (almost 2 months ago). Viborg have struggled with injuries for
key players. Lately talismanic striker Deble has been out, but rumours suggest
that he could return here. This would be vital as I think Viborg are just too
easy to read without his offensive flair and speed. Viborg has also had to make
changes in midfield and defence where they are constantly hit by new injuries.
The lack of consistency has surely affected the team and you could also
question their squad depth. Brøndby have not lived their best period of the
season lately, but despite of this they are without a loss in the last five
league games. They welcomed back some players in the last match and they also
looked a bit stronger. They will try to build on this for this match, and they
should be able to field the strongest side here. I have Brøndby as the 2nd best
team in the league this season, and despite their recent dip in performance, I
still have them ranked highly.
Viborg have won the last two matches
against Brøndby, and although Viborg did well in those matches, I would not put
too much into it, as Viborg is in a poor state at the moment and not able to
field the strongest eleven. I expect Brøndby to win this, but the uncertainty
regarding the return of Deble makes it an idea pick. If Deble is out, I think
it is fine value though.
Idea:
2 – 1.75 at Tipico
FC
Copenhagen-SønderjyskE
Sunday 6/11 18.00
FC Copenhagen have been so strong this
season. They are yet to lose a match in the league and they have only lost one
Champions League match away to Leicester. I am certain that they will go on to
win the Danish league this season. They are 14-1-0 at home in the league in
2016 and they have won nine of these matches with two goals or more (six out
seven this season). FC Copenhagen might rotate a bit after playing Champions
League on Wednesday, but this should not be a big problem due to an impressive
squad depth and no injury concerns. Nevertheless, I think they have looked a
bit unfocused in the matches after Champions League rounds during this season.
Central midfielder Kvist is out due to ban. SønderjyskE have won five out of
the last six league games and seem to be in form after a poor start to the
season. They have a strong defence and are good at countering. However, this is
set to be a very difficult match for them due to a number of absences. Vital
defensive midfielder Drachmann and strong central midfielder Madsen are out
with bans, while quality winger Kroon and his alternative Kløve are expected to
be out with injuries. This leaves SønderjyskE’s central midfield very
lightweight, and I can’t see how they can solve the issues in the central
midfield in a good way with the alternatives at hand.
I think FC Copenhagen will win this
comfortably, but I don’t see them smashing SønderjyskE. They arrive from a
tough Champions League match, the pitch is poor and they are strong at the
back. All three things favour a low scoring match, so that is a good idea for
the match. I think FC Copenhagen will continue working hard until they have a
two-goal lead, so I still think a handicap win could be a good choice. And yes,
if I had to pick the correct score it would be 2-0.
Ideas:
Under 3 goals – 1.77 at Pinnacle
1 (AH -1.5) – 1.96 at Unibet
