Esbjerg-Randers

Monday 20/7 19.00

Esbjerg were one of the positive surprises last season with a 5th place and earning advancement from the Europa League group stage. The strong performance led to Esbjerg’s players attracting attention from abroad and in the end also to the exit of right back Peter Ankersen and central defender Kian Hansen. Both players had a very strong influence on Esbjerg’s performances over the previous seasons. Furthermore, attacker Mushaga Bakenga (6 goals last season) has left. The exits have not been covered in impressive manner. Eddi Gomes has been signed for the central defence from HB Køge (did not impress in last match) and Lasse Rise has been signed from Randers (but he is always injured). In total, it leaves Esbjerg significantly weaker than last season. Against FC Kairat Almaty in an away Europa League match this Thursday Esbjerg got 1-1, but they were hardly able to create a big chance during 90 minutes. Esbjerg were without their star striker Martin Pusic, and if he is absent for Monday as well Esbjerg face severe scoring problems. Captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen and strong left back Jonas Knudsen are also doubtful for the match. Esbjerg lack a quality cover for Jonas Knudsen. Randers have lost their main profile, striker Ronnie Schwartz (15 goals last season). With preferred second striker, Nikolaj Brock-Madsen injured, Randers only have two options for the striking line-up: Viktor Lundberg and Djiby Fall. Both had a poor last season, but Lundberg has looked good in the pre-season friendlies. While Randers face some issues offensively, they look better in the midfield and defence, where they have some solid and experienced players. Winger Borring is injured, but with Fisker and Kamper fit it is not a major issue. In fact the wings might be the preferred spot of attack with the possible absence of Esbjerg left back Knudsen. In defence left back Tamboura is doubtful, but cover Fischer has done okay in his appearances. Randers have also signed a new goalkeeper in the Swede Karl-Johan Johnsson, and it will be interesting to see if he is an improvement to the average Peter Friis Jensen.

Esbjerg have lost some vital players and they lack the squad depth to cover these absences. With the potential absences of striker Pusic and left back Knudsen, Esbjerg look very vulnerable. Despite Randers are without a quality striker, they will have a good chance of earning points in Esbjerg. The experienced and physically strong team will be hard to break down for an Esbjerg team that played Europa League in Kazakhstan on Thursday (and had plane flight of more than 12 hours!).

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) - 1.85 at Bet365

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.86 at Betfair

UPDATE: Esbjerg's Pusic and Knudsen in called squad, but their participation is still not certain. Captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen not in called squad. In our opinion, still value in Randers points.

UPDATE v2: According to local newspaper, JV, Esbjerg is expected to rest several key players: Fellah, Pusic and Knudsen. Expected front-line is Lyng and Vestergaard, which should not scare an experienced Randers defence. Esbjerg will have a hard time scoring. Only winger Ankersen a real threat.