20. feb. 2014

#Twitbets: list of our season bets from Twitter


In order to give some overview over the season bets we have posted this winter on Twitter (@SuperligaBets), we have collected them here with our argument at the time. We made 6 bets and what have since happened to the odds:
Odds rise: 0
Odds the same: 1
Odds drop: 4
Odds removed: 1
Two of the bets still contain a lot of value (bets mentioned first below). So here is the list. We hope you follow us for more quality picks during the season!

FC Nordsjælland Top Goalscorer 2013/2014
Bet: Joshua John
Odds: 2.30 at Betsafe (2.30 still available!)
Argument:
John leads by 2 goals to only rival Nordstrand. 
Scoring avg. last 2 seasons: 
John: 1 goal per 172 mins 
Nordstrand: 199 mins (+injury-prone)
CV: 55%

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H
Bet: AGF-AaB 2
Odds: 1.50 at Tipico (1.45 still available: plenty of value!)
Argument:
AaB have a 10 point lead before last 15 games. Their team look stronger. AGF with troubling situation in attack (no fit striker).
CV: 80%

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H Most goals
Bet: Søren Larsen - Joshua John 2
Odds: 1.77 at Nordicbet (not online anymore since Larsen has decided to retire)
Argument:
Larsen just announced that he fears he has played his last match due to injury. John is only one goal behind. Should be able to pass Larsen.

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H
Bet: FC Midtjylland-AaB 1
Odds 1.65 at Betsafe (1.40 now – no value left)
Argument:
FCM have 4-point lead. AaB are weaker than in autumn with no Nielsen in defence. FCM are at around same level. CV: 70%. Nordicbet offers 1.37 for same bet

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H
Bet: Viborg-FC Vestsjælland 2
Odds 1.80 at Tipico (now 1.50 – no value left)
Argument:
2 teams are equal (21 points). FCV have just bought quality. Viborg had poorest SoTR this autumn and no expectation of them buying improvements (comment: they actually did – both still valuable bet). CV: 60%.

Superliga Top Goalscorer 2013/2014
Bet: T. Dalgaard, Viborg
Odds 5.00 at Betsafe (now 2.60 – actually still some value left according to our CV)
Argument:
Dalgaard leads the scoring charts with 3 goals. 15 games left. Risk: getting sold (our opinion: 30% risk). If he stays: 50% chance of win.

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